GDN - Golden State Resources

[new_trader1984]

hi dazt49,

Did you get my private message just since first time sending one wanted to make sure it went through.

thanks.

 

[DAZT49]

nt,
yep came thru no probs.thanks.
See the SP has just slipped into the red, i am sure it will finish ok.
Next week (how many times have we said that??) should be intersting to say the least, hopefully final results for Para1 and the U thing.

 

[new_trader1984]

H, i have just looked at today's smart money chart and also at the macd indicator using 3,5,4 which says the lines have crossed, this gives very short term trading indicators but can give a earlier signal then the 21 day macd charts.

Also the smart money chart today even with buy and sell side have 200-300 000 shares for sale and to buy at different price levels in the afternoon the demand increased to twice as many shares on buy side to the sell side but number of buyers stayed the same. This was interesting since for the number of buyers to not change but demand to increase by so much meant same amount of buyers had increased the amount of shares they wanted at certain prices. For the first time in over a week the blue line finished above the red line on the daily chart too.

The 2 charts below is one of the macd 3,5,4 and the intraday supply/demand chart.

Just thought it was worth sharing.

 

[DAZT49]

NT,
Interesting post as usual by you.
Its a real saga, waiting and hoping for good news.
Because there has been NO ann of the U entitlement cut off date, I reckon it will be extended, it is too late to buy in now, and SURELY they want punters to have an equal chance to take part in the offer.
I feel there will be an ann re the issue of the prospectus and with it a confirmed date for the entilement cut off, probably a week later, to take into account T+3.
I mentioned they were awaiting testing of the final U drill hole(with expected good result).
I reckon there will be a major ann (with trading halt??)with..
1. Final results of Para 1 including details of commencement of Para 2.
2. Prospectus of U spinoff including new entitlement cut off date.
IMO of course, and don't ask me when.

 

[sharemadder]

SP very sad. There must be a large seller who keeps driving it down. Must have bought them much cheaper to continually push it down. Wonder if ann Friday regards Akah - I hope so.

 

[elcruzy]

i agree the SP is sad, some people would have bought at these levels a year ago thinking that $1 was just the begining....i dont think someone bought at very low levels. its most likely someone accepting their loss and bugging out.

sorry cant even put anything optimistic/researched, just so disappointed with the SP.

 

[sharemadder]

Strange trading - large buy in again 463,105. Strange, very strange. Apart from upper ismay and akah does anyone know whether they will test other shows? Any one managed to get in contact with them lately? There Ph number just rang out yesterday twice on me.

 

[sharemadder]

Holy Crap the SP is black . Great stuff, maybe just opened the valve on the Akah and flowing nicley . Or U JV spin off??? Hope its the gas.

 

[new_trader1984]

Someone is interested in buying gdn shares since the 200,000 share buy at 1:47pm at 22cents a total of 1341570 shares have been traded between 22-23 cents in 13 minutes. They dont seem to be small purchases either.


the demand/supply chart today increased from 1;30pm and a high of 2.62 times more buyers then sellers around 1:50pm. The number of buyers in this time had dropped from 1.96 down to currently 1.45 which means blue line is well above the red line.

This may not mean anything but who would be buying large amounts of shares in the last 13 minutes pushing the price up to 23 cents when earlier today could of been buying at 21.5 cents.

between 2 and 2;09pm another 280 000 shares went through at 23.5 cents.

Just seems strange why there is so much buying happening in the last 20 minutes compared to earlier today and other days.

Anyone got any thoughts on why the sudden buying?

 

[DAZT49]

UP 2C IN 30 MINS AND NOW 2.5C AND IN THE GREEN...DOES SOMEBODY KNOW SOMETHING
MAYBE A LEAK IN THE GAS LINE COMMUNICATION

 

[sharemadder]

Sounds like a leak maybe, I really hope so that Akah just turned on the tap and its impressive enough for the CK Locke boys to spend up. Here's dreaming anyway.

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi I was just looking at the volume that was traded today with the increase in volume this afternoon.

From 1;47pm when the 200 000 share trade went through at 22 cents a total of 1,291,570 up to 1 59pm.

2-3pm volume of 2,901,536 shares traded.
3-4pm volume of 1,260,842 shares traded
4-4:10pm volume of 207000 shares traded.

Total of shares traded between 1;47 and 4:10pm from 22-25.5 cents was 5,660,948 shares. Total amount of shares traded today was 9,129,860.

3,468,912 was traded before 1:47pm.

161% increase in volume traded from 1:47-4:10pm compared to the amount of shares traded from 10:05am to 1:47pm. 3 hours and 42 minutes in morning trading compared to 2 hours 23 minutes in the afternoon.

5,660,948/143 minutes = 39587 shares per minute traded.

3,468,912/222 minutes = 15625 shares per minute traded.

That’s more than a 200% increase in number of shares traded per minute between this morning and this afternoon.

The numbers above don’t mean anything just what I did to see the difference in trading volume between the morning period where the price dropped to 21.5 cents and the afternoon period where it went from 22 cents at the start with a 200 000 share large buy at 1:47pm to closing and finishing at 25 with a high of 25.5 cents.

A large amount of volume went through in the afternoon starting from 1 47pm with no reason for the sudden buying but to almost make a 200% increase in buying over 2 hours compared to the trading volume the previous 3 and half hours we could guess and maybe hope that some positive news is due soon from the upper levels. I know that buying at 25 cents compared to a few months ago is very cheap but if there isn’t positive news we could see a drop in price which shouldn’t really happen considering its cheaper now then it was before drilling.

Today’s volume is almost as much as the volume on the 2 days on the 9-10 July when the bad results were released and sent the share price down to the 20’s. Today’s volume is even twice as much as the volume traded on the 16th July when news of upper barker creek flowing at 0.3mmcf was released to have a total of 0.5mmcf.

Why was there so much interest today especially this afternoon since the buyers were happy to pay 23-24-25 cents in large amounts to get the shares they wanted when if bought at 11am they could have had them at 21.5 cents. The buying this afternoon doesn’t make sense for a day with no news released. Either people think current price is very cheap and wanted in. Or maybe a leak of positive news since there was a fair bit of buying interest, or could be just that lots of people are thinking there must be some good news about to come out and wanted to get in just in case news is released tomorrow.

Looking at today’s intraday chart using 4 tick data shows that all day today the demand for shares was always above 1 which meant buyers at all times wanted more then sellers wanted to sell. That is normally a positive, at different times during the day the demand had increased to 2 times more buyers then sellers and even reached above 2.5 at a couple of times during the day.

The blue line was above the red line a few times for short periods during the morning leading up to 1:40pm, but during those times the red line wasn’t that far from the blue line so the parcels of shares weren’t that big per buyer but still more than the sellers each time.

From 1:04pm the blue line started to increase on both the q5 and q8 indicators with the q5 indicator at 1.48 when it started to increase at 1:44pm the blue line was at 1.9489 so about a 0.5 increase in demand over the 40 minutes, it was at 1;44pm where the blue line crossed the red line and if you look at the demand during that time and the trades going through that was about the same time as the 200 000 share trade went through at 22 cents which started the price move and large increase in buying.

Looking at the chart from 1;44pm you will notice that the blue line from that time never dropped below the red line which means smart buying or buyers wanting more shares then sellers wanted to sell during that time. Even when the blue line did drop the red line also dropped so number of buyers were a lot less which is good. The less buyers around but the higher the demand blue line is means more shares per buyer wanting to be bought.

I find these charts helpful, and thought to share, this is today's intraday chart with q5 and q8 showing the demand for the top 5 and 8 price levels and the n5 and n8 is the number of buyers to sellers ratio.

this may not be of interest to others but thought it was worth sharing.

 

[sharemadder]

Thanks NT1984 good post I think maybe good news from Akah frac leaked out. I hope so anyway. If GDN was the dog of a stock it has become why the sudden intense interest this afternoon. Not for the U JV spin off surely. Market sentiment went from a deep -ve to a sharp +ve. Huge bids too. Anyway as always hard to tell with GDn but here's hoping tomorrow morning reveals all with a hefty Akah gas pay load.

 

[new_trader1984]

Hi, i was just hoping someone might be able to share some thoughts on the difference in prices between adi and gdn.

From many posters on adi there is meant to be a very large amount of gas and oil for the project. But based on the announcements only so far without the research of surrounding areas at 20% holding of the project is 66 cents a good price for what has been announced so far?

Reason i ask this is comparing the 2 companies from announcements and the holdings in the projects it just doesnt make sense for gdn to be almost 1/3 of adi's price.

ADI has released news several months ago that the primary target was too tight and didnt flow. They expect to be testing in August of the secondaries where there is very high expectations of a large amount of gas and oil. No flow rates have been provided to say the well is flowing though, but i can see the confidence is because of plans for the next well. 20% of a project but without any flow rates from the secondaries is 66 cents a fair price before any results have been completed?

Im not saying it wont be just trying to look at the 2 companies in comparison both on company making projects 1 company has 20% in a project the other 100% in a project. GDN also has 25000 + acres in one area and ADI have been acquiring land and i think they have around 20 000 acres too.

So far gdn has announced the primary target as not being able to produce gas since has contact with water, both primaries are not productive for the companies. GDN have announced small flow rates of 0.2 and 0.3mmcf at 2 different intervals covering 73 feet. May not be much but gdn atleast now know that some intervals flow gas. GDN still have several more intervals to test that can turn the first well into a productive commercial well if more successful flow rates are found.

I know there is a difference in amount of shares on issue but both are above 100 million shares but neither are over 200 million shares so not a real large difference compared to other oil and gas companies with 500-800 million shares on issue.

Horizontal wells are meant to make flow rates increase by 2-3 times what a flow rate would get on a vertical well ADI already have this planned for their project, GDN so far have not been told whats going to happen with the next well but if they were to also complete a horizontal well it would increase chances of success for both companies.

EME on the london stock exchange who are partners with adi aut eka on another project released news that they have a flow rate on a well at 20.5mmcf per day but gas production will only be 1mmcf per day not sure why they would do this with stronger flow rates but does show even with strong flow rates it doesnt mean the companies will use the maximum daily flow rate from the well for gas sales.

Without a lot of researched infomation on either company and going by just announcements are the current prices for adi shares and gdn shares at a fair price?

Based on percentage of holding in the projects for every 1mmcf per day of gas sales, adi would need to have 5mmcf from their project, which would then provide them with a return of 1mmcf per day worth of gas sales.

Im not trying to be negative about adi, im just trying to look at the differences between the 2 and looking at their share prices based on what has been released to the market.

Any thoughts on the differences between the 2 would be appreciated.

I also know that gdn have always had delays with lots of the timing of reports which may have had an affect on people holding gdn, but delays seem to happen with companies in mining and oil and gas fields.

Thanks.

 

[sharemadder]

GDN is a strange stock. Many tout that the well is a dud. Yet plenty of shares changing hands. Why??? Is the U JV that good? Even though they say 24th entitlement date still no prospectus or detail news to really put a firm date on it. I did think we would see ann today about Akah but probably not till next week.

 

[DAZT49]

maddy,
I have stopped posting (cept for this one), as I have run out of puff. Feel a bit punch drunk after a couple of years (nearly) in the ring with GDN
Dragging on and on like a bad marriage.
Maybe next week...who knows..I am knocking off and heading down the peninsula for a couple of days R & R.
Back fresh to stare at the screen again bright and early Monday.
Have a good weekend guys.
dazza

 

[sharemadder]

Looks like no announcement today. 24th U JV entitlement extended cut off date. Maybe ann whole lot tomorrow, U JV and gas results for both Akah and Upper Ismay. Probably some other surprises as well.

 

[DAZT49]

madbugger,
Dont reckon there will be an ann today (Sunday in USA) tho I did say that one other time and they put one out....so what would I know lol.
One thing is undeniable.........it is coming
And hopefully

 

[Bignote]

sharemader

from memory there are 5 separate intervals in Akah zone and 3 or 4 in ismay so it may take a bit longer to test.

Just a thought.

 

[DAZT49]

They needed 48 hours to test the barker zones, is that each zone??
If so that would be 14-16 days to test Akah and Ismay.
The last ann was 16/7, we have quite a while to wait yet if this is so.