trader said:I don't know if this is even close to right, but the figures that they are quoting are amazing. 3 billion mcf of gas, 1 mcf = approx 1 MMBTU which sells for $7.50 US.
3 billion x $7.50 = $22.5 billion. even if you lose half in production cost it is
still a profit of over 10 billion and they have only 150 million shares.
Which would equal about $10.00 a share in AUS money.
MichaelD said:How I interpret today's trading psychologically;
Gamblers punting on what the announcement would bring piled in during the trading halt, hence a gap up, but then sellers wanting to get out at breakeven quickly took out all the new buyers and pushed the price back down.
I'd suggest there is still a massive backlog of buyers from the top of the frenzy still sweating it out, hoping for a breakeven exit. They need to be mopped up before the price can advance again.
i.e. the sellers are still in control of this stock.
trader said:I don't know if this is even close to right, but the figures that they are quoting are amazing. 3 billion mcf of gas, 1 mcf = approx 1 MMBTU which sells for $7.50 US.
3 billion x $7.50 = $22.5 billion. even if you lose half in production cost it is
still a profit of over 10 billion and they have only 150 million shares.
Which would equal about $10.00 a share in AUS money.
Mr Right said:10 US billion divided by 150 million shares = $100 AU dollar per share
nizar said:I wonder what are the chances of GDN being the first australian company to have a $100 share price as compared to, say, RIO or MBL ?
chris1983 said:I would say 3 bucks in a years time is very possible. That would be a good profit. Thats about the time period im looking to be holding for unless I see something go majorly wrong with their well..then I will assess into the future if I should hold longer
nizar said:Chris
Every1 has their own style, and you have to stick to what works for you.
But have a think about this.
Does researching a company give it a better chance of going up when it is the market which will ultimately deduce its value?
WHen i asked the same question to a friend regarding fundamental research, he answered that he does it so that he can invest in something "solid" and that he can "sleep better at night". Unfortunately these things have to do with his own psychology and have NOTHING to do with his profitability.
chris1983 said:Hmm yeah. I know what your getting at. Maybe he invests in safer stocks though? I go into high spec plays which I think are going to come good. The market in the end will always place the end value on a stock. I like to think with my research the market will see what I and others also see.
I thought you invest on fundamentals Nizar? Or do you mix the two? charting and fundamentals?
chris1983 said:GDN is an assurity in my mind. Thats only in my mind...many things can go wrong which can change my mind! but atm I really like them but I could be wrong.
MichaelD said:This is certainly consistent with today's chart pattern.
How I interpret today's trading psychologically;
Gamblers punting on what the announcement would bring piled in during the trading halt, hence a gap up, but then sellers wanting to get out at breakeven quickly took out all the new buyers and pushed the price back down.
I'd suggest there is still a massive backlog of buyers from the top of the frenzy still sweating it out, hoping for a breakeven exit. They need to be mopped up before the price can advance again.
i.e. the sellers are still in control of this stock.
nizar said:Im starting to mix the two.
Oh You mean "safer" stocks like AMP and TLS?
And how about if you are wrong? What will you do?
Will you cut your losses quickly?
Or keep holding it until it turns upwards so u can be right?
After all - u did hard research - it must be right! It has to go up!
Its human tendancy to want to be right.
chris1983 said:Hey Nizar..Im confident on being right. 6 months should let us know. Just research into the area and how many successful wells have been drilled in the area. You never know though. I also admit I could be well wrong.
You have to realise one thing..if this well is a gusher..which it looks to be heading that way..can you imagine what the area will be worth. They wont stop with one well.
chris1983 said:I will get out of this one if something goes wrong with the well or from their announcements they change their tone to be more negative..I dont just stay in stocks that arent going to move.
nizar said:How about if the share price just goes down regardless of what happens?
eg. they find heaps of gas and commercial wells yet the share price goes down? what will u do then?
Keep holding because its "meant" to go up?
Isnt it the share price which will determine your profitability NOT whether or not the company is in production or has earnings or wateva?
Many people say: "Oh but when the company is earning money of course the share price will be in the dollars!"
Iv seen weirder things. Remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (officially my favourite quote).
Iv seen companies release heaps of good news yet the share price does nothing. Then iv seen share prices jump for no apparent reason. Who cares what the cause of the announcement is. Even if u find the cause, it has NO predictive ability to determine what will happen to another stock if the same news is released.
Thats a bit harsh ......but i bet these "wankers" are a little richer now this holes got some gas!maverick11 said:That's the nature of the game i guess. I don't hold these but will be watching to see how they go. Personally I think GDN managment are wankers.
nizar said:How about if the share price just goes down regardless of what happens?
eg. they find heaps of gas and commercial wells yet the share price goes down? what will u do then?
Keep holding because its "meant" to go up?
nizar said:Did you know a fund manager with 30 years experience quit in the dot com boom because he was "sick of being wrong"?
I read it in fortune some time ago.
How about if the share price just goes down regardless of what happens?
eg. they find heaps of gas and commercial wells yet the share price goes down? what will u do then?
Keep holding because its "meant" to go up?
Isnt it the share price which will determine your profitability NOT whether or not the company is in production or has earnings or wateva?
Many people say: "Oh but when the company is earning money of course the share price will be in the dollars!"
Iv seen weirder things. Remember the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent (officially my favourite quote).
Iv seen companies release heaps of good news yet the share price does nothing. Then iv seen share prices jump for no apparent reason. Who cares what the cause of the announcement is. Even if u find the cause, it has NO predictive ability to determine what will happen to another stock if the same news is released.
tech/a said:There will be time enough to get on board when it is clear that buying strength is making new highs consistantly.
tech/a said:Its human nature to find anything positive about a belief you have.
When that belief needs re enforcing the more vehement the search.
I see it particulary with Friends who are/have been Cancer patients who have chosen the Natural therapy route.
Of those who have been diagnosed terminal 2 of 8 are still alive today.
Similar happens to those holding losing positions or marginally profitable.
If you werent concerned about it you wouldnt keep finding positive news to re enforce your veiw.
While there is nothing wrong with taking a long term view or position,I question doing so whilst there is no production.
There will be time enough to get on board when it is clear that buying strength is making new highs consistantly.
Most price action over the last week has been between 65 and 82c.
Anything significantly below or above this (Sustained) will show a definate sign in change of sentiment = or -.
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