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Food scarcity

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eskys said:
Wow, you make a decision fast. What and how do you base your decision on, divs?
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well i had already made a decision to add more ( just not the precise price , and i MIGHT yet move lower on Monday . )

SHV is a long term stock but has since i first bought in during May 2011 has displayed extraordinary volatility ( for a profit making agriculture stock )

now since i am determined to try to buy pennies are less important than trying to get a fairly good discount ( not the exact bottom , but if i can get close to the cycle bottom , that's fine by me

so a quick glance at the market depth ( SHV is more likely to over-shoot the support at $4 , than some stocks )

sooo do i feel lucky ?? ( hint it was my nickname in my younger years )

and having some stocks rattling around on my 'wish-list ' and waiting is a useful tool in the tool-box

for instance i waited 3 years for sub 80 cent BPT , and when it dropped i nibbled and nibbled and nibbled ( my av, SP is 52.5 cents )

now of course sometimes i am disappointed ( or very lucky that i missed out , completely )

warning ... SHV can get whipped around by FX rates , California rain , Californian forest fires , and Australian rainfall so keep the 'risk factor cranked up

ergo my preferred SHV exposure is RFF ( leases some plantations to SHV ) , but the SHV price now has room to rise in the coming years ( unlike the $12.80 i reduced at in July 2015 )
 
Thank you, lucky divs.

Too late now for me to make an entry and don't want to hold over the weekend. Different from you as an investor. I agree with you on RFF. Also it pays better dividends.
 
am thinking SHV will take about three to five years to get back to healthy profits unless it pivots towards the Asian markets , but i have been wrong before
 
eskys said:
I hope it doesn't take that long, divs. Three to five years is a long time. You're a monk??
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it depends on my life expectancy , , if it is a reasonably short time , i have enough already ( if actual inflation stays below 20% )

the cardiologist told me to 'take these pills or you are dead by Xmas ( 2016 ) and THEN things got really complicated

if i live longer or inflation really rockets i might need some capital growth ( after inflation ) plus the div. income

i am already retired , so have to try and wrangle a comfortable position , for the most likely outcomes

looks like some interesting times coming ( for Australia as well )
 
divs4ever said:
it depends on my life expectancy , , if it is a reasonably short time , i have enough already ( if actual inflation stays below 20% )

the cardiologist told me to 'take these pills or you are dead by Xmas ( 2016 ) and THEN things got really complicated

if i live longer or inflation really rockets i might need some capital growth ( after inflation ) plus the div. income

i am already retired , so have to try and wrangle a comfortable position , for the most likely outcomes

looks like some interesting times coming ( for Australia as well )
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Good afternoon divs4ever,
Get back onto that bicycle mate.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Good afternoon divs4ever,
Get back onto that bicycle mate.

Kind regards
rcw1
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LOL

someone decided to give me a stress MRI about a year and a half back ( normally a normal MRI , followed by an eight minute walk on a treadmill followed by a second MRI )

now given i walked in the door under my on steam , thinks started to go astray , right at the first MRI , were i failed it .. a completely indecipherable set of images ( i have had at least 4 in previous years which are unusual but gave good images )

now i was surprised the major hospital staff confused , so they had to find a different machine for a second try , ( which seems to have given an acceptable result ) and then off to the stress bit which the lady in charge wires me up to the EKG leads ... takes one look at the readings and directs to sit on the bed and waggle my legs !! after about 20 seconds of that she pumps me full of adenosine , and records the EKG readout vehemently opposing any attempt to get me on the treadmill AND ordered a wheelchair and orderly for the rest of the day , i still have no idea who was the most stressed in that little saga ,

and finally off the the other MRI .. which must have been fairly tame ( for me ) ( no pre-confirmed appointments with the cardiologist the next day , or hospital booking texted over the phone )


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PS they won't even let me drive my own wheelchair out in public ( but that might be because i joke about playing wheelchair rugby )
 
divs4ever said:
it depends on my life expectancy , , if it is a reasonably short time , i have enough already ( if actual inflation stays below 20% )

the cardiologist told me to 'take these pills or you are dead by Xmas ( 2016 ) and THEN things got really complicated

if i live longer or inflation really rockets i might need some capital growth ( after inflation ) plus the div. income

i am already retired , so have to try and wrangle a comfortable position , for the most likely outcomes

looks like some interesting times coming ( for Australia as well )
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Sorry to hear of your health problems, divs. At our age, things can go wrong, leaky pumpling, the old ticker and what nots. We can only try the best we can to look after ourselves through proper diet, exercise etc.......Keep well, divs, all the best.

My question is a statement; meant to mean you have the patience of a monk, divs. :)You're certainly a very patient man. Wish I am that patient......have a great weekend.
 
eskys said:
Sorry to hear of your health problems, divs. At our age, things can go wrong, leaky pumpling, the old ticker and what nots. We can only try the best we can to look after ourselves through proper diet, exercise etc.......Keep well, divs, all the best.

My question is a statement; meant to mean you have the patience of a monk, divs. :)You're certainly a very patient man. Wish I am that patient......have a great weekend.
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i lived the first ( almost ) 60 years like there was no tomorrow

now the 'old ticker' is a bit of a mystery in among the medical documents is a hint/theory that the core damage might have been there for years/decades/all my life , it wasn't until somebody hooked me up to my first EKG in 2016 a heart issue was noticed ( sure i always had lung issues ) the first echo-cardiogram had the technician deeply disturbed and by the beginning of 2017 i had a full disability pension ( six days after the independent medical review ) ( even before they managed to put in the stent )

but many many years ago , i did learn one useful hint on heart problems .... whatever you do , DON'T panic ( and consider getting a cab to the hospital , if you need help quickly .. but that is a former neighbour's tale )

but there is a time to be patient and a time to be very quick , getting that timing right is a big help , that is why i buy INTO a slide if it dips lower i have time to buy more if it is a dead cat bounce i get a second buying opportunity ( if i want it )

have a top weekend yourself
 
Too early in the morning, my plumbing was a pumpling, haha.

Divs, won't it better to apply for ambulance membership and ring for 000 in case of assistance with heart or breathing issues? I wouldn't be relying on a taxi. What happens if there was an emergency on the way to hospital? How well trained are they in resuscitation, if at all?

Good that you lived a fulfilling life in your younger days, divs. Imagine leaving it till you retired to live it now............just shows, time waits for no one. I've been accused of being short sighted. My reply is 'I don't have all the time in the world". I buy what I want and not wait till sales. Told 2 friends a few weeks ago 'who are you saving your money for? You wait for avo to go on sale before you can eat?' Makes no sense to me.........we work hard for what we have, don't feel guilty for being good to yourself, I said. Silence..........

I'm planning on heading back for a 'smoke' today, divs......again, a very nice weekend, take care, xx
 
eskys said:
Too early in the morning, my plumbing was a pumpling, haha.

Divs, won't it better to apply for ambulance membership and ring for 000 in case of assistance with heart or breathing issues? I wouldn't be relying on a taxi. What happens if there was an emergency on the way to hospital? How well trained are they in resuscitation, if at all?

Good that you lived a fulfilling life in your younger days, divs. Imagine leaving it till you retired to live it now............just shows, time waits for no one. I've been accused of being short sighted. My reply is 'I don't have all the time in the world". I buy what I want and not wait till sales. Told 2 friends a few weeks ago 'who are you saving your money for? You wait for avo to go on sale before you can eat?' Makes no sense to me.........we work hard for what we have, don't feel guilty for being good to yourself, I said. Silence..........

I'm planning on heading back for a 'smoke' today, divs......again, a very nice weekend, take care, xx
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am in QLD ( and on a disability pension ) and in a semi-civilized area ( plenty of multi-lane roads for the ambulance to speed along ) and the local hospital ( reasonably well equipped ) has a heli-pad and access to six superior hospitals , in case things are really messy )
HOWEVER the taxi is likely to arrive first and if i NEED an ambulance the poor paramedics are looking at a pharmaceutical mine-field , i would rather be at the hospital reception , than sitting in the parking lot at the back while the paramedics are doing CPR and stuff , obviously if you are losing lots of fluids [ blood, stomach contents and stuff ] the taxi option isn't so good ( unless he ran you over in the first place )

for instance the nitrolingual to be used only in an emergency triggers a cascade of consequences from the existing medications ( some of which are long-lasting ) so from an incident that requires a QUICK trip to the hospital turns into an extended hospital stay even if the first incident was only a bad scare .

however such a drama is liable to be the highlight of my week currently

have fun ( but be careful it is addictive )
 
divs4ever said:
am in QLD ( and on a disability pension ) and in a semi-civilized area ( plenty of multi-lane roads for the ambulance to speed along ) and the local hospital ( reasonably well equipped ) has a heli-pad and access to six superior hospitals , in case things are really messy )
HOWEVER the taxi is likely to arrive first and if i NEED an ambulance the poor paramedics are looking at a pharmaceutical mine-field , i would rather be at the hospital reception , than sitting in the parking lot at the back while the paramedics are doing CPR and stuff , obviously if you are losing lots of fluids [ blood, stomach contents and stuff ] the taxi option isn't so good ( unless he ran you over in the first place )

for instance the nitrolingual to be used only in an emergency triggers a cascade of consequences from the existing medications ( some of which are long-lasting ) so from an incident that requires a QUICK trip to the hospital turns into an extended hospital stay even if the first incident was only a bad scare .

however such a drama is liable to be the highlight of my week currently

have fun ( but be careful it is addictive )
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Jeezuz!

Mate, I hope you live a long and happy life just to confuse them all.

True story: many many years ago as a young man I knew a guy in my horse riding sport in his early 50s.

Not one male in his family had lived past 54 due to heart issues. Indeed, he used to have minor heart attacks all the time at horse shows.

2 hours later he'd be up on his horses and over the sticks again.

He was living life to the full, but none of us expected him to be around for very much longer.

Though I moved away from the state racehorse trainer and was therefore easily trackable via risa.com.au

Last entry was 3 or 4 years ago which would have made him in his late 80s.

Not quite sure what I'm trying to say here but maybe it is a lesson in that... dunno.
 
wayneL said:
Jeezuz!

Mate, I hope you live a long and happy life just to confuse them all.

True story: many many years ago as a young man I knew a guy in my horse riding sport in his early 50s.

Not one male in his family had lived past 54 due to heart issues. Indeed, he used to have minor heart attacks all the time at horse shows.

2 hours later he'd be up on his horses and over the sticks again.

He was living life to the full, but none of us expected him to be around for very much longer.

Though I moved away from the state racehorse trainer and was therefore easily trackable via risa.com.au

Last entry was 3 or 4 years ago which would have made him in his late 80s.

Not quite sure what I'm trying to say here but maybe it is a lesson in that... dunno.
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have already done that , they declared me dead when mum was 8 and half months pregnant ( and induced me ) .. two weeks later i arrived and then the chaos began ( both for me and mum )

now mum finally died in her '80s from similar problems to mine , but doctors still only guess when the damage was actually done , but it is always amusing when i get a new technician doing an echo-cardiogram , such an interesting array of reactions and comments

always helpful to have a good ( even if it is twisted ) sense of humor though
 
divs4ever said:
am in QLD ( and on a disability pension ) and in a semi-civilized area ( plenty of multi-lane roads for the ambulance to speed along ) and the local hospital ( reasonably well equipped ) has a heli-pad and access to six superior hospitals , in case things are really messy )
HOWEVER the taxi is likely to arrive first and if i NEED an ambulance the poor paramedics are looking at a pharmaceutical mine-field , i would rather be at the hospital reception , than sitting in the parking lot at the back while the paramedics are doing CPR and stuff , obviously if you are losing lots of fluids [ blood, stomach contents and stuff ] the taxi option isn't so good ( unless he ran you over in the first place )

for instance the nitrolingual to be used only in an emergency triggers a cascade of consequences from the existing medications ( some of which are long-lasting ) so from an incident that requires a QUICK trip to the hospital turns into an extended hospital stay even if the first incident was only a bad scare .

however such a drama is liable to be the highlight of my week currently

have fun ( but be careful it is addictive )
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Get some rum into ya mate

Kind regards
rcw1
 
rcw1 said:
Get some rum into ya mate

Kind regards
rcw1
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the Bicor ( i am on ) affects me like two bottles of whiskey a day , there is a debate that the Entresto ( which i am also on ) increases that effect , so the best i can safely do is inhale cognac ( at least it won't take out my liver )
but on the flip-slide the PBS discounts have probably saved me quite a bit on alcohol costs ( on what i might have consumed over the last 6 years )

cheers ?
 
JohnDe said:
Hong Kong ship has been filling up for over a week, took this photo on Sunday -

View attachment 150654

View attachment 150655
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Where do you think the Hong Kong grain ship load was heading?

Chinese customs move may signal trade thaw for Australian lobster, pearls, Ugg boots and more

In a further sign of improving ties between Australia and China, Beijing’s powerful Customs Department has officially encouraged the buying of Australian lobsters, health products, Ugg boots and pearls.

The statements are in an article published on the social media accounts of the General Administration of Customs this week ahead of a key visit to Beijing by Foreign Minister Penny Wong on Wednesday, and could be the first sign the unofficial ban on Australian lobsters, which hit Australian producers hard in October 2020, could be about to be relaxed.

In the article, which discussed the potential advantages of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China Customs listed a range of goods from Australia which it said were becoming attractive for Chinese consumers to buy under the agreement which came into force on January 1 this year.

“China has been Australia’s No. 1 trading partner for 13 consecutive years,” the article, published by the General Administration of Customs said.

“Australian lobster, sea cucumber, health products, wool boots and pearls are all products that are widely enjoyed by our consumers.”

It went on to introduce different types of Australian lobsters, pointing out that there was an immediate zero tariff under the RCEP.

But the problem with lobster sales to China was never about tariffs.

Australia’s exports of lobsters to China peaked at $750m in 2018-19 before the impact of Covid-19, representing 94 per cent of Australian lobster exports.

Exports were hit from early 2020 by Covid-19 shutdowns across China as the virus began spreading, closing restaurants, shops, and factories.

But the industry was shocked in late October 2020 to find its exports hit by complaints from Chinese customs that Australian lobsters could be contaminated by trace elements of metals and minerals.

The move saw hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of Australian lobsters in transit to China perish to the cost of Australian producers.

Extensive testing of Australian lobsters did not provide any evidence of the metals claimed by Chinese customs officials, but Australian producers began the expensive process of redirecting their exports to other markets and focusing more on the local market.

South Australian lobster fisherman, Andrew Ferguson, who lost $360,000 worth of lobsters which died at the international airport in Shanghai after they were unable to get through Chinese customs, welcomed the comments on the Customs Department website.

But he said Australian industry needed to be cautious about reports of any reopening of business between Australia and China given the events of the past three years.

“It sounds encouraging but we will have to wait and see,” he said.

“The past few years have cost us dearly as we have had to turn our business around.”

“We have had to be inventive and look for ways around the problem of losing the China market.”

The action against Australian lobsters came amid non-tariff action against Australian timber, beef and coal sales to China but with new tariffs on wine and barley killing two prosperous export markets.

Mr Ferguson said Australians needed to be careful about setting their sights on a reopening of the China market given the potential for politics to have a negative impact on trade in the future.

“What happens if everyone goes back to selling to China and some politician in the future says something wrong and the market shuts again?”

He said it would be “nice to know” if there was going to be any change in the market in China but he said he still had not forgotten the sickening feeling of waking up one morning to learn that his shipment of live lobsters to China could not enter the country because it had to be tested for “heavy metals.”

“Australia did all the testing for cadmium and heavy metals (in lobsters) and found that it was non existent,” he said. “We sent the results and never heard back.”

He said that his customers in China, most of which were in Shanghai, were very disappointed that they were not able to receive his lobsters, but he said they had since moved on to other businesses and no longer had import licences for lobsters.

He said he had built up his business with China over 20 years including many trips to the country before Covid-19 and developed strong ties with his customers.

“They were trusted partners in the supply chain. They always wanted our product.”

The Customs Department article also talked about the high “pharmaceutical” standard of Australian health products, which is overseen by the Therapeutic Goods Administration, noting the comparison with other countries where “health supplements are classified as food products”.

Companies such as Blackmores have had strong demand for their products in China in the past.

The article comes as Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong is due to meet her counterpart in China in Beijing on Wednesday to celebrate 50 years of Australia-China political relations.

Australia China Business Council president David Olsson, said the comments in the article were “very encouraging developments (which were) consistent with the desire expressed to ACBC members by Chinese importers and distributors for renewed access to premium Australian goods and services.”

He said they were also a “timely reminder of the emerging importance of RCEP, highlighting the opportunity for Australian exporters to use RCEP as a platform to manage trade relations with China.”

“RCEP is only a new agreement, and we’ll need to do more work to understand the gains it offers.”

“But we should pay attention to the fact that China already recognises its importance in kickstarting the post-pandemic economic recovery, and as a platform for re-engaging with Australia.”

Mr Olsson said the Australia-China business community was awaiting the outcome of the meeting in Beijing “with a sense of tempered expectation”

He said it was a “good sign” that the Australian Foreign Minister was invited to visit Beijing.

“We have also been encouraged by renewed interest we have received from China’s trade promotion body, CCPIT, for business round tables and delegations.”

The Business Council of Australia and ACBC are now planning a business delegation visit to China “as soon as travel conditions allow.”

“For most businesses, it’s been nearly three years since they were last able to visit China,” Mr Olsson said.

“There is a huge demand and need for Australian companies to visit their distributors and manufacturing sites, to reconnect with customers and to develop an informed assessment of the market opportunities.”

He said Chinese companies were also keen to reconnect with Australian exporters.

“Australian goods and services continue to be in demand,” he said.

HEIDI HAN REPORTER
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hmmm that might explain the rise in BKL ( i hold ) share price recently

which is a shame i was hoping to buy more sub $60

doesn't seemed to have excited the milk/baby formula industry CLV ( i hold 'free-carried' ) has been fairly flat and unloved
 
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