FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Go Nuke]

WOW!

I jumped on this moring with little research into FMG (the name speaks for itself these days with all their recent media coverage) and am blown away to look at it now at $8.70!!

ok I'm spewing i didn't jump on at $6.60 the other day, but hey better late than never right?

 

[wildmanchris]

Someone must be buying up on FMG - cause the share price jump over the last few days makes no sense on no news. I thought about jumping on yesterday, but how does one know when the boat has left......

:bowser:

 

[agro]

i honestly beleive it is institutions finally (i quote finally) getting on board the success of FMG

why i beleive this - the whole idea of the share split was to attract retail investors and at the investor tour alot of top instos and steel companies were present..

thats my opinion .. take over is far from present as twiggy holds 36% stake

edit - also have a look at the small number of accumulation parcels (e.g. under 10) being processed continually

 

[Go Nuke]

i honestly beleive it is institutions finally (i quote finally) getting on board the success of FMG

why i beleive this - the whole idea of the share split was to attract retail investors and at the investor tour alot of top instos and steel companies were present..

thats my opinion .. take over is far from present as twiggy holds 36% stake

edit - also have a look at the small number of accumulation parcels (e.g. under 10) being processed continually

Well what I saw in the split share was the ability to buy into FMG at a lower share price.
I think it would be easier to say get a 10% return on a $5-$6 share than a 10% return on $50 share.
Well, thats my logic anyway and its paid off for today

 

[chewy]

thats kind of bizarre - cause if the market cap is the same then it is costing exactly the same amount for your share of the company. - or am I missing something?

 

[reece55]

thats kind of bizarre - cause if the market cap is the same then it is costing exactly the same amount for your share of the company. - or am I missing something?

No Chewy, your right on the money.... it doesn't impact on the value of the shares at all, just splits them into 10 smaller parcels..... But empirical evidence in the US suggests that splits have a positive implication on a Company's share price, although FMG's 45% increase in the last little while I think has more to do with the fact that these guys will be in production in the coming months...

Personally, I would be extremely wary of buying in at the moment into FMG........ It's market cap is now up to 23.5 Billion, has anyone got any actual cash flow estimates to actually support this ridiculous valuation. I mean, I know they found an extra billion tonnes, but i just question this rampant speculation as this is a typical run up of a share price before a new year..........

However, no one can question the incredible run.............

Cheers

 

[ba229]

When it was $30 I thought it too expensive.

So being the intellect I am I bought in at $50 lol.

That was on the 1st of Nov.

It is now up 67% in just short of 2 mths.

Wish I had put the house on it (not really)

Keep thinking of taking profits but see it rising further on no news.

Been a funny stock alright.

 

[2020hindsight]

just for the record
here's FMG for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
Also FMG vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either
a) help out an divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)

 

[agro]

Anyone else notice the media contingency are only giving Fortescue its deserved exposure to the public now after a significant rise in SP?

At the same time, the negativity surrounding Anaconda is still being mentioned?

 

[reece55]

Well, I see we have a few Twiggy lowers in the room, still if you have just been on the FMG train, can't say I blame you. I prefer to refer to him as the entrepreneur who could sell sand to the Arabs....... I am sure he would take the comment as a compliment!

Well, after racking my brain at the seemingly endless run on this stock, I thought I would do a bit of NPV analysis on the thing. Surprisingly, it is sensitive to production output and price achieved per tonne (HAHAHA.... yeah right). Please, I am by no means a mining specialist here, valuations for me normally entail profitable retail/commercial businesses, not mining operations. So if you think what I am putting up here is stupid, let me know.

So, in the attached I have 3 different scenarios for the group, all based that we have about 2.2 Bil tonnes of Iron Ore here that the group can sell. All of them don't factoring in any additional capital works to the mine, apart from an expansion to ramp up production. Now, NPV wise, we have (not surprisingly) a huge variation in fair value. My underlying point however would be that she's fairly overvalued at present, worth maybe 6.50 a share if it all goes right. Now, the kicker is that if they can achieve 200 MTPA and China keeps on steam, the stock could be worth more than double what it is now. Bare in mind that BHP and Rio have both been doing this for years, have mature mines with infrastructure and rail that has been available for a long time, and even they can only manage at max about 100 Mil per annum. I would also say that none of these have an assumption that the 45 Mil in the first year is missed - which could well be the case, have a look at Paladin.

What I will say however is why the heck didn't I do this 7 months back - the answer would have been this stock was worth accumulating! Never mind, hindsight is a wonderful thing.

Cheers

 

[Miner]

Friends
It is the time that we must not forget to treat every one no matter high flyer or not so high flyer with dignity and respect.
We all have short comings but let us not abuse personalities for that. This forum is a good forum but it is good so long we try to make it better. So no point to ask any one to sign or not to sign an email rather condone their lack of wisdom . I am neither supporting the harsh comments some one (Rainmaker) has made against Twiggy. I personally believe those comments were bit naive and unfortunate (sheer jealousy?) .
Twiggy is a smart person (He is from West and not a wise man from East ) and probably thinks ahead of many smart people sitting iin BHPB and Rio Board. Please forgive me and I am not paid by FMG or Andrew. I have seen very senior people from FMG (incluing Andrew himself and his team), Rio and BHPB. Andrew has the real gutts and takes the responsibility on himself for decisions made right or wrong. He is a risk and decision taker and has been rewarded for that. FMG decisions are taken at 87 Adelaide Terrace Perth and not in London office of Rio or 300 Bourke Street Melbourne !
I am almost convinced there are few senior people from his company who read this site regularly as well . I am not great fan of Andrew Forest or FMG. However can not ignore the fundamental that he knows how to run a business or make money . In this Forum we are not to win an election campaign by developing relationship but to make MONEY within ethical guidelines and ASIC rules !!!. It will not be right to compare Andrew with James Packer or any one else for that matter. What Andrew created for him and HIS TEAM , James has done nothing near to that. Credit for James P's success ( since he inherited the business empire) should go to Late KP more than him. But that is not the point for discussion here.

Bottom line is probably there are Chinese whisper / helping hands behind the share price rocketing up in FMG. But that is not a crime or a lone factor. Rio is doing the same thing to outsmart BHPB .
As a small investor we all are trying to make money so what is wrong with Andrew ? Time has come now where the impossible things going to be possible : FOOS at FMG is going to be earlier than May 08 with a serious catching up in railways progress . Iron ore price is going to increase by 30% in 2008 (read Andrew's website what he presented before institutional investors and we know that prices of steel have started to increase ).
Information shows FMG is not going to produce @55MTPA but more of @35 MTPA in May 08. Lump Circuit and Desanding module is not coming before Sep 08. Employees/contractors at FMG office read the work in progress weekly construction report for Nov 07 in the first week of Dec 07 whereas market probably reads it in third week of Dec 07 . But even 35 MTPA is good enough to fetch fantastic bottom line upgrade for FMG.
There are some laggard brokers probably buying FMG in their portfolio too.
So enjoy and try to make some money. Once again PLEASE DO NOT START PERSONAL MUD SLUGGING EXERCISE in this Forum.

I (ironically me saying so) think the FMGDA price will reach probably $9 or higher by mid Jan 08 and will reach $10 by April 08 (Do I sound copying Charlie Atkins of Soutehrn Equity ? But it is a late realisation for me about the short term strength of this scrip as I was personally very synically few months back about FMG).

Regards

Miner

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Wow, good to see some energetic discussion.......Miner, you pretty much sum it up......I retract my personal references, as you and Agro make the good point, they are highly inappropriate in a public forum of this nature...I kind of let myself off the leash, as I consider these forums to be quite lite but not all see it that way..and the more I consider, its probably not appropriate that I start citing evidence from the various sources as I doubt its possible for me to paint an accurate picture...other institutions are more appropriate for these matters........no one can argue with the share price run and I genuinely hope for those on board that you all make a motsa....as you can tell, I like a glass half empty approach to an investing scenario like this..........

 

[agro]

How many in here are honest and happy to share genuine knowledge with others? Very Few.

Day traders not to be trusted as they push the share in direction they want it to go.

Everything has its Positive and Negatives.

Take your pick, ,Australian - TALL POPPY SYNDROME, OR follow the CHINESE and international companies who invested heavy in FMG.

Side with the majority of these companies who no doubt did their homework OR the small minority of Wanabies Day Traders.

 

[prawn_86]

Agro,

One must remember that those other companies that have invested in FMG probably did so at a much lower price than it is currently.

When was the last increase in substantial holding statement? Im not sure as i dont follow the stock too much

 

[treefrog]

How many in here are honest and happy to share genuine knowledge with others? Very Few.

Day traders not to be trusted as they push the share in direction they want it to go.

Everything has its Positive and Negatives.

Take your pick, ,Australian - TALL POPPY SYNDROME, OR follow the CHINESE and international companies who invested heavy in FMG.

Side with the majority of these companies who no doubt did their homework OR the small minority of Wanabies Day Traders.

argo,
respect your views as I do the short term traders who also have valid and quite honest views
the most difficult thing in trading/investing on a forum such as this is firstly to decipher over what term (or what language) the poster has in mind when they post - it may be intraday (a few minutes or hours) day (a few days) medium or long term which I guess is your timeframe
because of the differences some see "oposing or contrary" comments as deliberately misleading when mostly they are not
it would be great if we all posted our timeframes along with the post but alas, just doesn't happen and we need to learn to decode the timeframe and ignore those we are not interested in
cheerz

 

[robjb5]

Friends
It is the time that we must not forget to treat every one no matter high flyer or not so high flyer with dignity and respect.
We all have short comings but let us not abuse personalities for that. This forum is a good forum but it is good so long we try to make it better. So no point to ask any one to sign or not to sign an email rather condone their lack of wisdom . I am neither supporting the harsh comments some one (Rainmaker) has made against Twiggy. I personally believe those comments were bit naive and unfortunate (sheer jealousy?) .
Twiggy is a smart person (He is from West and not a wise man from East ) and probably thinks ahead of many smart people sitting iin BHPB and Rio Board. Please forgive me and I am not paid by FMG or Andrew. I have seen very senior people from FMG (incluing Andrew himself and his team), Rio and BHPB. Andrew has the real gutts and takes the responsibility on himself for decisions made right or wrong. He is a risk and decision taker and has been rewarded for that. FMG decisions are taken at 87 Adelaide Terrace Perth and not in London office of Rio or 300 Bourke Street Melbourne !
I am almost convinced there are few senior people from his company who read this site regularly as well . I am not great fan of Andrew Forest or FMG. However can not ignore the fundamental that he knows how to run a business or make money . In this Forum we are not to win an election campaign by developing relationship but to make MONEY within ethical guidelines and ASIC rules !!!. It will not be right to compare Andrew with James Packer or any one else for that matter. What Andrew created for him and HIS TEAM , James has done nothing near to that. Credit for James P's success ( since he inherited the business empire) should go to Late KP more than him. But that is not the point for discussion here.

Bottom line is probably there are Chinese whisper / helping hands behind the share price rocketing up in FMG. But that is not a crime or a lone factor. Rio is doing the same thing to outsmart BHPB .
As a small investor we all are trying to make money so what is wrong with Andrew ? Time has come now where the impossible things going to be possible : FOOS at FMG is going to be earlier than May 08 with a serious catching up in railways progress . Iron ore price is going to increase by 30% in 2008 (read Andrew's website what he presented before institutional investors and we know that prices of steel have started to increase ).
Information shows FMG is not going to produce @55MTPA but more of @35 MTPA in May 08. Lump Circuit and Desanding module is not coming before Sep 08. Employees/contractors at FMG office read the work in progress weekly construction report for Nov 07 in the first week of Dec 07 whereas market probably reads it in third week of Dec 07 . But even 35 MTPA is good enough to fetch fantastic bottom line upgrade for FMG.
There are some laggard brokers probably buying FMG in their portfolio too.
So enjoy and try to make some money. Once again PLEASE DO NOT START PERSONAL MUD SLUGGING EXERCISE in this Forum.

I (ironically me saying so) think the FMGDA price will reach probably $9 or higher by mid Jan 08 and will reach $10 by April 08 (Do I sound copying Charlie Atkins of Soutehrn Equity ? But it is a late realisation for me about the short term strength of this scrip as I was personally very synically few months back about FMG).

Regards

Miner

Grammatically adventurous, Miner, but essentially correct and representative of what I personally believe to be the situation regarding FMG and Andrew F.
The current shareprice is indicative of the combination of greed and lack of understanding on the part of the punters, plus the ever present optmism of all those who wish Andrew F. well in his current adventure..A mixture of positives and negatives..
If an objective analysis is made of all of FMG's achievements to date, the Company's forecasts, projections, determination to succeed and the demonstrable progress towards FOOS in May '08, then it will be very obvious that todays shareprice is only the beginning...stronger for longer..

 

[Prospector]

I (ironically me saying so) think the FMGDA price will reach probably $9 or higher by mid Jan 08 and will reach $10 by April 08 (Do I sound copying Charlie Atkins of Soutehrn Equity ? But it is a late realisation for me about the short term strength of this scrip as I was personally very synically few months back about FMG).

Hey Miner
As I said in an earlier post, you certainly have changed tack on the FMG story - glad I didnt listen to you earlier:

So what, exactly, other than the rising share price, has caused you to change your mind about FMG?

 

[agro]

Agro,

One must remember that those other companies that have invested in FMG probably did so at a much lower price than it is currently.

When was the last increase in substantial holding statement? Im not sure as i dont follow the stock too much

I don't think there was any changes in substantial holdings this year because everyone is holding put.

I do however recall the Russians wanting a 15% stake in the company which had to goto Costello to get approval so I was told but don't know what the final outcome was..

read:

Gift for a Russian who has everything?
Kevin Andrusiak | September 06, 2007

WHAT else could you ask for apart from a personal fortune of $9.3 billion, an Order For Merits To The Motherland Of The IV Degree and the presidency of your own ice hockey franchise?

Maybe a 15 per cent-plus stake in aspiring iron ore miner Fortescue Metals Group?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22369936-5005200,00.html

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

I'm on board the FMG train, but almost had two lumps in my throat when being away for a while I logged on and saw that FMG had dropped 90% (but then remembered they had planned a 10 for 1 split some time back).

My question is my Comsec Account Position Summary still shows as FMG (and is -100% with a value of $0)

Do I now OR am i able to change this to FMGDA or wait till Jan4th?

Whats the go?

What if I want to sell?

What if I want to set up a Trigger?

 

[Prospector]

If you want to sell FMGDA before Jan 4 then you need to do this over the phone. FMG is one of my major parcels, and it shows up as $zero at the moment