FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[2020hindsight]

noi, they say 81% increase ...

just messing around with exchange rates :-

"The 7 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG:ASX) have a median target of 307.00, [AUD 3.70 ?] with a high estimate of 930.00 [AUD 11.25] and a low estimate of 170.00 [AUD 2.05]. The median estimate represents a 81.12% increase from the last price of 169.50 [AUD 2.05]."

They say "last price 169.50". Assuming this is current, i.e. last price in Aus was AUD $2.05, then the conversion to AUD seems to be 170=$2.05. Hence I have added the values (guesses) in square brackets.

 

[Miner]

Fascinating isn't it, lol - in the last 12 months, not one of these analysts has recommended "Sell" .
(While it slid from $13.00 to $1.30 - ok back to $2.00 now)

One bloke had the courage to say "No Opinion" lol.

The other thing that I find interesting is that the Universities, with all their economists on staff, have managed to lose a bundle on the market in recent times as well. At least I'm in good company lol

You were right to get this research

These brokers are to my opinion good for nothing and change their colour with wind

First most of them refused to pass any recommendation on FMG

Secondly they are always divided in saying worse than half empty or half full syndrome

THirdly, when we see a scrip is termed as buy by one and hold by another then the math does not work,

If a broker will publish its true recommendation in public forum then it will not make any money for its favoured clients. So I do not trust its recommendation in public. They rather create market opinion just opposite to their intention to sell or buy in general,

Goldman Sachs predicted oil to reach $200 per barrel on the same time period when it reached $65

 

[2020hindsight]

noi, they say 81% increase ...

just messing around with exchange rates :-

"The 7 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG:ASX) have a median target of 307.00, [AUD 3.70 ?] with a high estimate of 930.00 [AUD 11.25] and a low estimate of 170.00 [AUD 2.05]. The median estimate represents a 81.12% increase from the last price of 169.50 [AUD 2.05]."

They say "last price 169.50". Assuming this is current, i.e. last price in Aus was AUD $2.05, then the conversion to AUD seems to be 170=$2.05. Hence I have added the values (guesses) in square brackets.

Then again - those figures could be a day or two old. Since FMG had 20% increase yesterday (for instance), presumably there's only 1.8 / 1.2 = 50% increase left in the cookie jar if you buy today.

 

[2020hindsight]

If a broker will publish its true recommendation in public forum then it will not make any money for its favoured clients. So I do not trust its recommendation in public. They rather create market opinion just opposite to their intention to sell or buy in general,

Goldman Sachs predicted oil to reach $200 per barrel on the same time period when it reached $65

Lol - yep could well be true..

I remember in the late 70's "investent consultants" were predicting that gold would reach USD 1000 short term. back when that was a lot of money lol.

Charge a fortune, and just say "in summary buy gold". Then the Iran-Iraq war started and a heap of gold was sold by those countries to finance it - and gold stayed at around $300 for yonks.

Back to the blindfold and throwing darts at the Stock Secton of the Herald ..

 

[BentRod]

Fascinating isn't it, lol - in the last 12 months, not one of these analysts has recommended "Sell" .
(While it slid from $13.00 to $1.30 - ok back to $2.00 now)

One bloke had the courage to say "No Opinion" lol.

The other thing that I find interesting is that the Universities, with all their economists on staff, have managed to lose a bundle on the market in recent times as well. At least I'm in good company lol

This seems to be the case with every Company that has suffered a similar decline as FMG.

They were even screaming buys on ONTEL and HIH all the way down weren't they?

Times like this the charts speak volumes.

 

[2020hindsight]

Lol I was happily in cash on Jun30 - then read an article "make sure you buy on July 1 - don't miss the boat !"

THey forgot to mention it was the bludy Titanic lol.

PS Here's a good consultant ... operates out of Martin Place on Thursday nights ..

 

[Miner]

FMG did well today as well

Cancelled (Deferred !!) NRW contract is one story

Mr Herb Elliot the reverred Olympian, respected Chairman sold his share at $1.5 or so when the market is so rosy for the company. I am sure if he needed money other than worried for the company then Andrew, Russell or Graeme (who has millions of shares in the company) would have helped me out of respect and for the royalty of using his name for the port (?) . Unless Herb saw something well in advance which market is going to see see in a week's time

Long live FMG believers for long term (how long the piece of thread who knows.

I am holding FMG and hopefully my grandchildren will be able to encash them to earn their in heritance

 

[Warren Buffet II]

FMG smells like bull****

Something funny is happening in there and looks they keep hidding the facts or as twiggy always does he is talking that Death Mine Walking (DMW) company up.

Hello 25Mtons, then 22Mtons, then 20Mtons, then 18Mtons, now 15Mtons, next month what 10Mtons?

Same for next year, first 80Mtons, then 55Mtons, probably that will go down to 35Mtons?

Very unreliable business and information, one has to be blind not to see the truth or too twi(cky)ggy

http://business.smh.com.au/business/fortescue-folds-on-shipments-20081126-6iri.html

 

[Frankhalo]

Re: FMG smells like bull****

Something funny is happening in there and looks they keep hidding the facts or as twiggy always does he is talking that Death Mine Walking (DMW) company up.

Hello 25Mtons, then 22Mtons, then 20Mtons, then 18Mtons, now 15Mtons, next month what 10Mtons?

Same for next year, first 80Mtons, then 55Mtons, probably that will go down to 35Mtons?

Very unreliable business and information, one has to be blind not to see the truth or too twi(cky)ggy

http://business.smh.com.au/business/fortescue-folds-on-shipments-20081126-6iri.html

You must have miss the last 12 months sleeping beauty...

Expansion works on hold is pretty well documented and its a fair call given the current global mess were in. FMG's ships are still coming in and going out, so I imagine so is the income unless its all freebies. 45 to 55 mta for first year still puts a smile on my face and I look forward to next years July 09 full figures.

Again FMG and Andrew has a long history of suprising the market, I tipping the finer points of his recent trip to China will slowly come out, he has played well with the Chinese and this will place him and the company in the box seat IMO, the same can not be said for BHP, RIO or VALE.

Last three ann's from the past week can help you out, they tackle debt, IO grades, shipments and the future, all add up nicely IMO. As for Herbie enjoying his spoils why not I say, nice Ferrari for Xmas...:

 

[SenTineL]

Herb was affected by the opes prime collapse from memory so it may be that he had to sell some shares....dunno

Also FMG still has contracts with the top 16 Chinese Mills and I think Frank you are right, Andrew has been really friendly with the Chinese and relationships count a lot to them

 

[Frankhalo]

Herb was affected by the opes prime collapse from memory so it may be that he had to sell some shares....dunno

Also FMG still has contracts with the top 16 Chinese Mills and I think Frank you are right, Andrew has been really friendly with the Chinese and relationships count a lot to them

Here you go SenTinel, the finer points of Andrews trip slowly seeing the light of day. , and its all very promising IMO.

On the evening of Nov.24, Zhou Qiang ,deputy of Hunan Provincial Party Committee and governor of Hunan province, met with the senior delegation of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) in Australia headed by Andrew Forrest, executive director and CEO of FMG, in Changsha.

FMG is the world's fourth largest provider of iron ore and Hunan's steel enterprises are its clients. This delegation paid a special visit to Hunan to discuss about further cooperation with the Valin Group.

Zhou briefed that, to tackle effects brought by the present international financial crisis, Hunan actively implements the CPC Central Committee's significant decision of expanding domestic demand to promote economic growth by strengthening construction of such infrastucture as expressways and railways so as to ensure stable and relatively rapid growth of Hunan's overall economy. Zhou said steel demand is bound to continuously increase with the further progress of infrastructure construction and the steel market is therefore promising. Hunan supports wide, comprehensive, thorough and stable cooperation between Hunan and Australia and pushes forward bilateral cooperation in such aspects as low-grade ore exploitation and raw ore processing, relying on the world's leading low-grade ore dressing technology of Central South University in Hunan in the hope of making it a successful example of steel cooperation between China and Australia, furthering exchanges between Hunan and Australia and driving cooperation in such fields as tourism, sports, science and technology. Andrew Forrest expressed his gratitude for Zhou Qiang's meeting and said, he was deeply impressed by steady and healthy development of Hunan and was confident of bilateral further cooperation. Chiefs of relevant departments directly under Hunan Provincial Committee of the CPC accompanied the meeting.

 

[jonojpsg]

Here you go SenTinel, the finer points of Andrews trip slowly seeing the light of day. , and its all very promising IMO.

On the evening of Nov.24, Zhou Qiang ,deputy of Hunan Provincial Party Committee and governor of Hunan province, met with the senior delegation of Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG) in Australia headed by Andrew Forrest, executive director and CEO of FMG, in Changsha.

FMG is the world's fourth largest provider of iron ore and Hunan's steel enterprises are its clients. This delegation paid a special visit to Hunan to discuss about further cooperation with the Valin Group.

Zhou briefed that, to tackle effects brought by the present international financial crisis, Hunan actively implements the CPC Central Committee's significant decision of expanding domestic demand to promote economic growth by strengthening construction of such infrastucture as expressways and railways so as to ensure stable and relatively rapid growth of Hunan's overall economy. Zhou said steel demand is bound to continuously increase with the further progress of infrastructure construction and the steel market is therefore promising. Hunan supports wide, comprehensive, thorough and stable cooperation between Hunan and Australia and pushes forward bilateral cooperation in such aspects as low-grade ore exploitation and raw ore processing, relying on the world's leading low-grade ore dressing technology of Central South University in Hunan in the hope of making it a successful example of steel cooperation between China and Australia, furthering exchanges between Hunan and Australia and driving cooperation in such fields as tourism, sports, science and technology. Andrew Forrest expressed his gratitude for Zhou Qiang's meeting and said, he was deeply impressed by steady and healthy development of Hunan and was confident of bilateral further cooperation. Chiefs of relevant departments directly under Hunan Provincial Committee of the CPC accompanied the meeting.

This is one thing that IMO will be a big positive for FMG over other IO companies - Andrew Forrest is into the diplomatic approach which for Chinese culture is a major tenet. The big 3 have their CEOs and obviously have the volume to be able to make deals, but there isn't the personal touch that having a CEO who has basically built the company up himself and negotiates from that position.

WHile some of you may scoff and say the Chinese don't care as long as they get the best deal they can, I think that FMG (read AF) have worked and are working their way into being able to sell as much IO as they can produce to China. It may be a couple of years off but I have no doubt that FMG will be producing and selling their 160MTpa and it will all go to China.

 

[SenTineL]

i can say by being involved with a company that deals with the chinese regularly with imports/exports that the chinese place a very high importance on personal contact and good relationships.

anyway good to see it break the $2.00 mark today

 

[Miner]

Herb was affected by the opes prime collapse from memory so it may be that he had to sell some shares....dunno

Also FMG still has contracts with the top 16 Chinese Mills and I think Frank you are right, Andrew has been really friendly with the Chinese and relationships count a lot to them

Relationship with Chinese really go well.

I have read in history books when I was a student and taking the opportunity to recount it.

In about 1962 India met a friendship treaty with China. Mr Nehru (the first PM of India who was also father of Mrs Indira Gandhi ex PM of India and grand father of Mr Rajiv Gandhi ex PM of INdia).

INdia was not as powerful like today, had a very poor military base and worse infrastructure. It was all good handshakes, MOU etc between Chou En Lai (then Chinese PM) and Nehru Indian PM.

WIthin three months of that treaty China attacked India, literally defeated them and encroached some good areas still under dispute between two countries. To me all is fair in love and war - so do not want to blame Chinese Government in 1962 what did to India. It was a good lesson for India however to wake up.

We are now having an economic war across the world and many of us have learnt lessons !

Regarding contracts with 16 Chinese Mills. I think they are MOU par se. Who has read the contract and its fine clauses to exit from obligation ? If contract is all about guarantee then why FMG terminated so many existing contracts with their suppliers ? What is the guarantee that Chinese Mills will not learn from the lessons taught by FMG ?

Let us not be pessimistic and let us say SHE WILL BE ALRIGHT MATE

No comments on FMG however and world has changed since then.

 

[Frankhalo]

Relationship with Chinese really go well.

I have read in history books when I was a student and taking the opportunity to recount it.

In about 1962 India met a friendship treaty with China. Mr Nehru (the first PM of India who was also father of Mrs Indira Gandhi ex PM of India and grand father of Mr Rajiv Gandhi ex PM of INdia).

INdia was not as powerful like today, had a very poor military base and worse infrastructure. It was all good handshakes, MOU etc between Chou En Lai (then Chinese PM) and Nehru Indian PM.

WIthin three months of that treaty China attacked India, literally defeated them and encroached some good areas still under dispute between two countries. To me all is fair in love and war - so do not want to blame Chinese Government in 1962 what did to India. It was a good lesson for India however to wake up.

We are now having an economic war across the world and many of us have learnt lessons !

Regarding contracts with 16 Chinese Mills. I think they are MOU par se. Who has read the contract and its fine clauses to exit from obligation ? If contract is all about guarantee then why FMG terminated so many existing contracts with their suppliers ? What is the guarantee that Chinese Mills will not learn from the lessons taught by FMG ?

Let us not be pessimistic and let us say SHE WILL BE ALRIGHT MATE

No comments on FMG however and world has changed since then.

History does not determine your future, your actions / planning / diplomacy today do, that folks is what makes your tomorrow. If you think Andrew and his board leaders were over in China for a cup of tea your sadly mistaken.

 

[Surly]

FMG is the world's fourth largest provider of iron ore and Hunan's steel enterprises are its clients. This delegation paid a special visit to Hunan to discuss about further cooperation with the Valin Group.

Frank,

What is the production of number 5?

It was easy to come up with 1-3, after that very hard.

cheers
Surly

 

[Miner]

History does not determine your future, your actions / planning / diplomacy today do, that folks is what makes your tomorrow. If you think Andrew and his board leaders were over in China for a cup of tea your sadly mistaken.

Hi Frankhalo

Good point and no arguments.

Just watch FMG and its so called relationship with 16 Chinese Mills.

One year from here, please review how many of those 16 Mills really placed or bought iron ore from FMG.

There is always some difference between flirting, just dating and serious dating before a marriage takes place. So what is the level of relationship currently exists between 16 Chinese Mills and FMG ?

I have financial interest on FMG as a shareholders and would like to see you win to prove your point so that I can encash my grand kids inheritance earlier :sheep:

It would have been the world's most expensive cup of tea the FMG shareholders have ever paid for if Andrew and his team went to China just to have a cup of tea unless they are following Tata who produces iron ore, steel, IT, cars, and also make Tea (Tetley Brand) and manage Hotels

 

[Frankhalo]

Hi Frankhalo

Good point and no arguments.

Just watch FMG and its so called relationship with 16 Chinese Mills.

One year from here, please review how many of those 16 Mills really placed or bought iron ore from FMG.

There is always some difference between flirting, just dating and serious dating before a marriage takes place. So what is the level of relationship currently exists between 16 Chinese Mills and FMG ?

I have financial interest on FMG as a shareholders and would like to see you win to prove your point so that I can encash my grand kids inheritance earlier :sheep:

It would have been the world's most expensive cup of tea the FMG shareholders have ever paid for if Andrew and his team went to China just to have a cup of tea unless they are following Tata who produces iron ore, steel, IT, cars, and also make Tea (Tetley Brand) and manage Hotels

Hi Miner

Fortescue has about as much transparency as any other company out there, we all would like to know the finer points of a company’s operation
But unfortunately its not the case. So it’s a matter of mom and dad holders to do the ground work, period reporting and respected news
Articles and the company announcements that come our way with a bit of financial institution spin along the way.

FMG is a sound business model, product going out income coming in and more importantly good ties and a hands on approach with
Our Chinese friends. Diplomacy , product and customer service will see FMG weather the global financial storm IMO and I hope to see
The finer points of the FMG’s team results from their recent trip to China soon.

Regardless Miner enjoy your FMG wealth as well not just your grand kids, never too old for a couple of middle life toys….

 

[kkyyoo]

....

what happened today ??

FMG suddenly leaped from around $2.15 to $2.93 (40%++ increase on SP)

Some institutional investor bought in ??

Damn missed the boat

 

[jonojpsg]

WOW! What's happening this am??? Up 35% atm with no news - nice look on my trade that's been in the red for ages and ive averaged down to $2.94 and almost there - woohoo