FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Miner]

for those interested, there was an article in today's AFR about the backing FMG has by junior iron ore miners in the pilbara towards an open access railway ... its all against BHP if they don't want to share and be greedy considering only 1% of IO production comes from the line

also, another article on how the chinese wanted a 80% stake in FMG in 2005 but was rejected.

baosteel also wanting to increase their stake by purchasing it from the americans

Agro

My guess is that once FMG establishes its production stability by the end of 2008, it will start to spin off its infrastructure as a separate business. Its strategy is working well by having junior resources behind FMG.
Probably FMG will make a substantial money by leasing its port, railways and other infrastructure facilities to junior miners. The port is very good and is a cash cow too.

We will definitely review this begining of next year if my so called one cent prophecy or educated guess work really hold good.

Until then enjoy FMG rise in next two weeks.

 

[agro]

looks as though anticipation for shipment shipping on the date set is built into the share price now.

skeptics hiding.

 

[agro]

0850 [Dow Jones] Fortescue Metals (FMG.AU) boosted to Buy from Hold by Goldman Sachs JBWere on improved outlook for iron ore prices and likely support company will get from customers during ramp-up and then expansion. "Fortescue remains a high risk, high return proposition...that said, it appears to be on track, the iron ore market remains strong and the customers are clearly keen to support Fortescue get into production and expand." Targets A$9.62, vs last A$7.79. (MCE)

 

[Frankhalo]

Watch the skeptics and people sitting on their hands now come out of the woodwork Agro, FMG has delivered on many fronts time and time again.
Todays Herald Sun Sunday edition stock watch had FMG as a buy aswell.

 

[Ozland]

Ignition! We have lift off!!!!!!!

"Pilbara upstarts are shown the way"

"Fortescue has done it, and others are lining up for a crack, writes Jamie Freed.

THE Australian iron ore industry entered a new era yesterday.

Fortescue Metals, the self-proclaimed "new force in iron ore", began loading at Port Hedland the long-awaited first ore from its $4 billion Pilbara project onto a ship bound for China."

http://business.smh.com.au/pilbara-upstarts-are-shown-the-way/20080506-2bl2.html

Not a bad first share buy eh? (I bought 1000 @ $7.34 last Wednesday, and just caught the wave! I am still smiling!!!)

 

[Ozland]

...and a great story about FMG's "epic struggle" with the harsh Pilbara environment and with its two heavyweight rivals! (for FMG fans )

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/natural_resources/article3876364.ece

I suppose I have to 'come out' here and say that I have become a believer in FMG and a bit of a fan via my research into the company prior to investing my savings in something more productive than my bank's 'so called-high interest saver account'.

Oh, and P.S. I wish I had known that I only had 20 minutes to edit a post!!!!!!!!! I would have thought longer about the last line in my previous post above!

 

[agro]

Watch the skeptics and people sitting on their hands now come out of the woodwork Agro, FMG has delivered on many fronts time and time again.
Todays Herald Sun Sunday edition stock watch had FMG as a buy aswell.

i am still waiting to hear an opinion from our beloved "prawn_86".

he seems to have a strong contrary opinion to mine so would like to hear what he says...

 

[njc.corp]

Ignition! We have lift off!!!!!!!

"Pilbara upstarts are shown the way"

"Fortescue has done it, and others are lining up for a crack, writes Jamie Freed.

THE Australian iron ore industry entered a new era yesterday.

Fortescue Metals, the self-proclaimed "new force in iron ore", began loading at Port Hedland the long-awaited first ore from its $4 billion Pilbara project onto a ship bound for China."

http://business.smh.com.au/pilbara-upstarts-are-shown-the-way/20080506-2bl2.html

Not a bad first share buy eh? (I bought 1000 @ $7.34 last Wednesday, and just caught the wave! I am still smiling!!! )

it seems it has met the deadline-i log into bloomberg last night to see a nice article about it-

i am a fmg holder so in a way i am happy-even yesterday's jump got me but the bloomberg article did have a nice view on fmg production-if it was to meet the 200 a year ton mark-would the iron ore market be flooded-?

thats my little ? to the pro's as i dont know how much the people buying iron ore use or need-

should break its high today or get closer as of this good news

Thanks

Nick--

 

[dastrix]

What a cracker of a share!! The tip my uncle gave me was a nice one. Good to see an aussie player make it into the big time

I brought 850 under $5.50, I'm definitely all smiles Just wish I brought 3 times as many....

 

[Prospector]

Throw away the diamonds, I am in love with iron ore

(and have been holding since they were $27.00)

 

[agro]

broke $9 resistance just now

headed for $10+ and celebrations haven't even began yet!

iron ore on ship - wait for it to reach china

 

[prawn_86]

i am still waiting to hear an opinion from our beloved "prawn_86".

he seems to have a strong contrary opinion to mine so would like to hear what he says...

Agro, I will spell it out for you, once again, but for the last time. Any further flaming comments will be ignored

1. FMG is overvalued IMO due to reasons I have previously stated. Future PE etc

2. I have NEVER said that there is not money to be made on the stock, I have just said to be careful

3. Well done to those that do hold, however when I conducted my analysis it did not meet MY criteria.

I dont think i can make it any more simple, if you do not understand, or choose to not understand that is your fault.

Any well done to all involved for actually meeting the deadline. A rare thing in the mining industry.

 

[njc.corp]

Agro, I will spell it out for you, once again, but for the last time. Any further flaming comments will be ignored

1. FMG is overvalued IMO due to reasons I have previously stated. Future PE etc

2. I have NEVER said that there is not money to be made on the stock, I have just said to be careful

3. Well done to those that do hold, however when I conducted my analysis it did not meet MY criteria.

I dont think i can make it any more simple, if you do not understand, or choose to not understand that is your fault.

Any well done to all involved for actually meeting the deadline. A rare thing in the mining industry.

Prawn- by all means i am not being a smart ****-but like u said in your last sentence- deadline-whats your views since it has been met-has your criteria change since this deadline -

Like i said i ain't being a smart **** just looking at some different angles here-

Thanks in advance

Nick--

 

[prawn_86]

Nick,

No problems, I dont mind answering legitimate questions if people are actually interested rather than just flaming or have the whole 'im right, your wrong' mentality.

Im not at home atm so my analysis will just be fairly brief.

Basically on a forward PE basis, it still appears to me that they are overpriced. I said a few pages back, when they were about $6.50 that it seemed to represent fair value at those prices, given the scope for production increases.

The problem with forward PEs is that you do not know market conditions in the future. Obviously the outlook for IO is good into the future, but as with all mining stocks i will/would be wary after the China olympics, as i honestly believe (just a feeling, no evidence), that China will slowdown somewhat, and try to tame their economy a little after the olympics

However, that said, the market likes the fact that the deadline was met so the next major technical resistance is $10.

I think the next fundamental challenge will be becoming cashflow positive, how quickly that can be achieved, and then if the actual forecast profits are met.

 

[goose22]

Hey Guys,
I am pretty new to trading so I have this urge to sell every time I am making a good profit. Do you think that the price will reach $10 or at least $9.50 when the ship gets to China?

 

[Prospector]

Goose, you can never lose by selling for a profit. One of the first things I learnt during s share trading seminar, was to realise you can never pick the top, just as you can never pick the bottom. Asking someone how high a share will go is like crystal ball gazing. You can see for yourself that 2 posters here have an entirely different interpretation of what the future holds for FMG.

I think China will hold good for a few years yet, although there may be the occasional scare. Having travelled to Guangzhou and Shenzhen recently, the development is breathtaking. Have yet to see Shanghai; but if that kind of development spreads throughout China, then, well, you get the picture. But anything can happen, say even something like Bird Flu becoming transmissable human to human and a pandemic will change it all.

 

[MRC & Co]

The thing that worries me with FMG, is the attack above all-time highs has not been accompanied by much volume, which does not support the gap.

RSI is also extremelly overbought, so we could get a pullback to close the gap.

Iron Ore news is definately positive, I'm split on this one for the moment. I will look for either extremelly high volume to come in late today, or a pullback and consolidation around $8.50 before we get a solid run.

 

[njc.corp]

Hey Guys,
I am pretty new to trading so I have this urge to sell every time I am making a good profit. Do you think that the price will reach $10 or at least $9.50 when the ship gets to China?

i dont think anyone could give u a good answer on the about ?-- will it hit a high or low-
who knows

u have rough ideas but no one is 100% sure-

if we did we would be well off-

when u bought fmg-did u have a target and was the target for something u needed like bills,lifestyle,repayments etc etc

so in a way-if u have a plan why not stick to it?

Prospector hit the nailed on the head

dont forget-something is better then nothing-

Thanks

Nick-

 

[goose22]

Yeah you guys all made good points. Something is better than nothing, and I may as well stick to my target. Thanks for the advice. My mates dad is striking it massively rich at the moment. This stock has made him a millionaire just by chance. Who would have the balls and the money for that matter, to throw away a couple of grand on a penny stock only to see it turn a thousand times over!

 

[agro]

1 week countdown.

i remember reading sometime ago that the offices in FMG have massive clocks with the countdown timer to their first shipment.

the celebrations that will go off in china and FMG.. probably would be comparable to the Olympics (i am exaggerating!)