FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Miner]

New to this forum,
been day trading for approx. 3 years, if u look at the past charts of alot of the miners you could easily see that FMG could easily hit $14,i hope my past experience of not taking profits i.e rio is not the same pattern i will have again but hoping i get it right this time

Dear Zaf39

Welcome to this forum

It would be useful not to see your post as ramping FMG price please show your chart and the trend to justify your prediction for FMG to rise $14. Understanding you are new to the forum but please check the rules of posting at this forum
YOu would notice there are many learned chartists who always support their predictions with chart. Do not feel shy and give it a go

 

[njc.corp]

does anyone have anymore details on today's news that some chinese mob is keen to buy 15%+ in fmg

Thanks

Nick--

 

[Nesa]

does anyone have anymore details on today's news that some chinese mob is keen to buy 15%+ in fmg

Thanks

Nick--

UPDATE 1-Three Chinese groups eye Fortescue iron ore stake
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssIndustryMaterialsUtilitiesNews/idUSSYD22829420080512

 

[zaf39]

Dear Zaf39

Welcome to this forum

It would be useful not to see your post as ramping FMG price please show your chart and the trend to justify your prediction for FMG to rise $14. Understanding you are new to the forum but please check the rules of posting at this forum
YOu would notice there are many learned chartists who always support their predictions with chart. Do not feel shy and give it a go

Good Morning Traders,
I was talking about the possibility of FMG reaching $14, when you compare the charts with ZFX, WSA etc. etc.
What are other peoples views on the possibility of FMG reaching $14?

Have a good trading day

--Zaf39

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Good Morning Traders,
I was talking about the possibility of FMG reaching $14, when you compare the charts with ZFX, WSA etc. etc.
What are other peoples views on the possibility of FMG reaching $14?

Have a good trading day

--Zaf39

Taking into account their 10 for 1 split that would be $140.00

Be nice for those that have held for a few years

 

[stuttgart]

Anyone have any thoughts about the many 150k shares parcels being traded at ~9.38 today? What's the theory relating to accumulation or distribution when multiple frequent abnormally large trades are performed at around the same price without any noticeable change in direction in the price action as a result? baffled!

 

[Go Nuke]

Guess people are just holding out for the first announcement of shipping before the share price heads further north.

Or just what im hopeing for
Nice big Overseas cross trade of $194+ K went through this arvo!

Im holding.

 

[agro]

skys the limit now with FMG,

skeptics gone into hiding and are now having a dig at FMG meeting its 250mt ramp up lol *shakes head*

twiggy proven them wrong the whole way through.. he's the one laughing with the billions

caus he has 36% stake, that protects from a takeover too

pitty the aussie instos didn't get on board

china know they are on a good thing - thats why 3 companies want in!!

wait for earnings and dividends - just another reason for it to go up further!!

 

[SenTineL]

yeah apparently I read FMG are trying to track down a big broker that said at the beginning a few years back that he would be willing to be tied up on the train track in May because there was no chance that FMG would be doing anything.

would be mad to be selling now IMO, even if they don't make the deadline, the whole company isn't going to crumble because of a missed date!

 

[Nesa]

yeah apparently I read FMG are trying to track down a big broker that said at the beginning a few years back that he would be willing to be tied up on the train track in May because there was no chance that FMG would be doing anything.

would be mad to be selling now IMO, even if they don't make the deadline, the whole company isn't going to crumble because of a missed date!

Famous last words....

"I'm happy to be chained to the tracks somewhere between Cloud Break and Port Hedland in May next year because I know that I will not be killed by a train"

Fund Manager (Name withheld), 2007

 

[MRC & Co]

Falling momentum on narrow spreads and increasing volume. Would want this one to breakout soon or it could be headed lower.

Strong support around 8.50-8.60.

Definately one to watch for the traders! Good luck to all the investors!

 

[reece55]

skys the limit now with FMG,

skeptics gone into hiding and are now having a dig at FMG meeting its 250mt ramp up lol *shakes head*

twiggy proven them wrong the whole way through.. he's the one laughing with the billions

caus he has 36% stake, that protects from a takeover too

pitty the aussie instos didn't get on board

china know they are on a good thing - thats why 3 companies want in!!

wait for earnings and dividends - just another reason for it to go up further!!

Well, your persistence seems to have paid off agro here, but don't speak to soon..... life changes when production occurs.

I'm goin to stick my neck out and reiterate that this stocks valuation way way exceeds it on paper value at the moment. There is soooo much hype in this mother of a Company, does anyone actually think it is going to deliver on it's promises?

I still think ramping up to 200 MTPA is going to be an extremely tough ask in 3 - 5 years. And even if they can scale up to 100 MPTA by year 5, the stocks intrinsic value is only about $6.00 at best case.....

Overrated IMO, great for trading, but investing at this point would be ludicrous.... Just my , I am sure you would disagree there agro....

Cheers

 

[prawn_86]

I agree Reece.

On a fundamental, on paper, basis anything over about $6.50 seems overpriced. Hence why is said a while back when it dropped, it may represent an opportunity.

Im not saying this wont go up on hype, greed, sentiment etc etc, but those buying NOW for fundamentals are pushing their luck imo

 

[Miner]

I agree Reece.

On a fundamental, on paper, basis anything over about $6.50 seems overpriced. Hence why is said a while back when it dropped, it may represent an opportunity.

Im not saying this wont go up on hype, greed, sentiment etc etc, but those buying NOW for fundamentals are pushing their luck imo

Probably I agree with your fundamental analysis. However sometimes short time economy gives a bubble effect and depending on what side of bubble we are the situation gives us gain or loss. FMG probably will not be under ANdrew for next few years either. He is to have some fruits of his money which are only paper for him and real for many of us.

I met some of the old Anaconda guys who invested a fortune in old Anaconda and just can not condone him. But there are some who love him. I have seen him in action and personally have a respect for him because he is a smart Australian, a Joe Blogg like many of us, approachable and has the Midas touch. How many of us really can speak with Ian Ashby of BHPB Iron ore or Sam Walsh of RTIO just like a common person (forget about the CEO of their board) . If you happen to be at 87 Adelaide Terrace in East Perth and in FMG office then you will see Herb Elliot (ex olympian and CEO of FMG) is behind you in the queue to take coffee or Graeme Rowley is taking lunch with you. NOt their secreataries. ANdrew owns 40 percent of FMG, is the CEO and still you can speak with him. He takes decision on the spot right or wrong. Well once again I am not his paid publicist and not over excited with 15 May deadline as end of world either.

ANy way I saw a news article which says tonight Tuesday FMG is going to ship some ore .

Twiggy's iron ore export dream closer
AAP

13/05/2008 3:50pm Email to a friend Print article


It's taken almost four years and $3 billion, but Australia's wealthiest individual Andrew "Twiggy" Forrest is about to turn his iron ore dream into reality.

 

[MRC & Co]

Just, VERY quickly on the F/A side of things.

If those 80c projections can be acheived, it would create profit of over $2bil.

Quiet a return on equity despite the high debt.

No idea if they will be acheived or not, but based on a quick calculation if they are even close to acheived, fundamental value does not look too bad at all.

Afterall, is that not how we determine the fundamental value? Return on book (equity), extrapolated into the future based on current forecasts, whilst adding to the discount rate due to higher risk? Which may be somewhat offset by more than likely commodity price volatility in favour of FMG with iron ore prices expected to rise.............

Last time I checked, that was the "Warren Buffett way" to calculate instrinsic value.

 

[agro]

Well, your persistence seems to have paid off agro here, but don't speak to soon..... life changes when production occurs.

I'm goin to stick my neck out and reiterate that this stocks valuation way way exceeds it on paper value at the moment. There is soooo much hype in this mother of a Company, does anyone actually think it is going to deliver on it's promises?

I still think ramping up to 200 MTPA is going to be an extremely tough ask in 3 - 5 years. And even if they can scale up to 100 MPTA by year 5, the stocks intrinsic value is only about $6.00 at best case.....

Overrated IMO, great for trading, but investing at this point would be ludicrous.... Just my , I am sure you would disagree there agro....

Cheers

I agree Reece.

On a fundamental, on paper, basis anything over about $6.50 seems overpriced. Hence why is said a while back when it dropped, it may represent an opportunity.

Im not saying this wont go up on hype, greed, sentiment etc etc, but those buying NOW for fundamentals are pushing their luck imo

the chinese and russians don't seem to think so...

its only the australian public - thats interesting...

 

[prawn_86]

the chinese and russians don't seem to think so...

its only the australian public - thats interesting...

Perhaps the Chinese and Russians are more interested in securing thier future commodity needs, rather than fundamentals (ie- current price)

 

[agro]

Perhaps the Chinese and Russians are more interested in securing thier future commodity needs, rather than fundamentals (ie- current price)

that sounds logicial re - securing their future commodity needs,,

now is this commodity so to speak going to increase in price?

i think so.

lets all be skeptical on the ramp up now that twiggy has achieved one goal without all the cyclones etc etc..

rather hold than be on the side lines lol especially in a milestone event within the history of mining in Australia

 

[prawn_86]

rather hold than be on the side lines lol especially in a milestone event within the history of mining in Australia

Yes, but what price do you hold from, and are you buying more at these prices?

As I have said before the only time I would buy, is if I see fundamental value, which is around $6 for me, but preferably below.

 

[nizar]

As I have said before the only time I would buy, is if I see fundamental value, which is around $6 for me, but preferably below.

The problem with value buying is that some stocks that are undervalued stay undervalued for years and some others are already "expensive" yet keep going up.