FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[njc.corp]

Very very significant

wait for the next milestone - the shipment

and then the increase in output every year

twiggy keeps denying the public skeptics...

those who are onboard will be rewarded

Agro-fmg will plot a long really nice in years to come-

theirs been so much bad things said about forrest-like how he ran down his other company before fmg- but in the real world how many good business have been started by failed 1 time operators-owners-board members only for them to do alright the 2nd time round?

i know my first business did not do well- i brought that along to my 2nd busniess to see it doing well to this day-


i like this stock as their is so many skeptics-but in a way skeptics are good when they are proved wrong- ask my old business partner who did not trust my idea's-his kicking himsef-

Anyway--i have to ask if the deadline is met- how will this effect bhp and rio's share price-

Thanks

Nick--

 

[Miner]

I would like to share some thing I heard from one of my friend who is a railway contractor. What he told me was that in FMG the first on the rail might have been made as a letter of law. He asked if any one knows about the condition of railway track and if they are really capable of hauling ? He also asked me to find out if there was full balast under the railway track in FMG railway. The iron ore price is too hot so any thing produces will be sold.

I do wish FMG a real sucess . However I still wonder when the real production of 55 MTPA will start (desanding is a must for a high silica and high alumina plant), if FMG has borrowed too much to support its first short fall in 35 MTPA plant, How Cloudbreak and Chichester Ore will be behaving, how long to go to get over transfer of ore by truck to real transfer by rail. Or if the excellent infrastructure could be a money spinner for FMG to lease for other iron ore hopeful to get the bottom line under control.

We are just a fort night way and surely the monthly report for March to be published in coming week will unfold lot of unknowns.

Could any one throw some real light ?

Regards

Disclaimer : I hold a very small parcel of FMG acquired recently

 

[Boggo]

Interesting article in the Weekend Australian Business section re federal government views on FMG access to the BHP and RIO rail infrastructure.

Seems like Martin Ferguson (resources minister) has told them to come to an arrangement for access by negotiation outside of the court system.

May be of benefit to FMG ?

Mike

 

[Miner]

attached March end report.
Technically lot of water has already flown under the bridge. This report ending on 31 March gets published internally in a different format. Every week there is a report circulated for all contractors and staff whosoever has FMGL email access!
Then the monthly report gets massaged to be published in ASX just one week before the next report is due. Must be done deliberately as there is no EXCUSE to take 27 days to massage a monthly report if there is any intention to keep the market informed. But that may be legality when you see March end report for a quarter gets published by the end of April by others. All connected get the reward to encash or unload as the case may be much ahead of market players could act. Funny game and still by the book OKAY.

Enjoy the report and if any question send email to Graeme Rowley or Andrew Forest at growley@fmgl.com.au or aforest@fmgl.com.au (I am guessing their email addresses from standard email addresses at FMG site).

Disclaimer : I do now hold a small parcel of FMG

 

[i wanna b rich!]

So the mid May comes, how do you think the SP is going to react? The market is expecting it, so if the SP is going to go up I presume. But by how much?

 

[Sean K]

So the mid May comes, how do you think the SP is going to react? The market is expecting it, so if the SP is going to go up I presume. But by how much?

I assume you mean there is something due to happen in mid May? Like some sort of mining? Or railwayline? Or shipment, or the like? How anticipated is it? Does everyone know? If so, perhaps the news is already factored in? Remember, the market is forward looking, and at other times makes no sense at all.

 

[SM Junkie]

I love watching FMG and I will be facinated to see how things progress in the coming weeks. Ideally they should have completed all construction and be agressively moving the dirt into Port. The recent construction report is already a month out of date and not much of an indicator of where things are at. So let me know if there has been further shipments?

If they don't make it, I think the sp will drop, only due to the PR machine and everyone anticipating this date of shipment. It will be a disaster if missed.

 

[Miner]

I love watching FMG and I will be facinated to see how things progress in the coming weeks. Ideally they should have completed all construction and be agressively moving the dirt into Port. The recent construction report is already a month out of date and not much of an indicator of where things are at. So let me know if there has been further shipments?

If they don't make it, I think the sp will drop, only due to the PR machine and everyone anticipating this date of shipment. It will be a disaster if missed.

SM Junkie
You are absolutely right. It is not just you or me, but billion dollars will be at stake if May FOOS date is not met. Some people have made good money by selling and buying FMG excepting the directors who are sitting on paper money. The financial institutions have made real investment. So I am hoping they will be working harder not to miss the one of only opportunity.

Regarding PR - Yes, Andrew does it well. That is why we hear about the 55 MTPA, 100 MTPA, 200 MTPA - all buzz words until the real production starts even at 35 MTPA. However like Andrew has his PR machine so are RIO, BHPB having. They are trying hard balls to see FMG fails. For them success of FMG is a failure for them. Now it is up to you and others to calculate the level of stake and who will put the money and where.

 

[njc.corp]

Like i asked before-if the deadline in may is met-will this effect bhp and rio's price

Thanks

Nick--

 

[Miner]

Like i asked before-if the deadline in may is met-will this effect bhp and rio's price

Thanks

Nick--

Dear Nick
Good question but I personally do not know the answer. My guess is the effect on Rio or BHP share will be a little. The reason both of the organisations are multi product miners whereas FMG is a single product would be miner. Ask some of our astrologer friends in this site who has the crystal ball

However this will affect FMG's price if the deadline is NOT met. Market expectation is that FMG will meet its deadline and hence the price has probably been factored now.

If you happened to read today's West Australian then there is something which I did not like. Suddenly FMG has decided not to celebrate its FOOS in May and wait for one month until it gets stabilised.
Under normal circumstances this is a good call. It is never happened that an EPCM project with such a high volume will have its full rate production from the date 1. One month time for stability is not unreasonable.

But for Twiggy who does not spare any opportunity to flash his card of publicity this sudden retraction from a high profile publicity for the first time and a bit of humility I see a sign of nervousness (or admittance of a reality)

For the sake of an Australian success story (an my little investment in FMG) I wish him and all FMG employees, contractors and investors a successful FOOS.

 

[Miner]

Like i asked before-if the deadline in may is met-will this effect bhp and rio's price

Thanks

Nick--

Dear Nick
Good question but I personally do not know the answer. My guess is the effect on Rio or BHP share will be a little. The reason both of the organisations are multi product miners whereas FMG is a single product would be miner. Ask some of our astrologer friends in this site who has the crystal ball

However this will affect FMG's price if the deadline is NOT met. Market expectation is that FMG will meet its deadline and hence the price has probably been factored now.

If you happened to read today's West Australian then there is something which I did not like. Suddenly FMG has decided not to celebrate its FOOS in May and wait for one month until it gets stabilised.
Under normal circumstances this is a good call. It is never happened that an EPCM project with such a high volume will have its full rate production from the date 1. One month time for stability is not unreasonable.

But for Twiggy who does not spare any opportunity to flash his card of publicity this sudden retraction from a high profile publicity for the first time and a bit of humility I see a sign of nervousness (or admittance of a reality)

For the sake of an Australian success story (an my little investment in FMG) I wish him and all FMG employees, contractors and investors a successful FOOS.

 

[spectrumchaser]

Sneaky Chinese are already using expected FMG shipments
to play down BHP and Rio's negotiations

China May Gain From Long Ore Talks With Aussie Miners - Assoc
( Partial extract from article)
"24/04/2008 4:03PM

SHANGHAI (Dow Jones)--Chinese steel mills might be able to benefit from prolonged negotiations with Australian iron ore miners, as prices of both domestic ores and imports have been falling, an industry official said Thursday.

The average domestic iron ore price fell in March by CNY100 ($14.31) per metric ton from the previous month, while the average cost, insurance and freight import price was down $4/ton, said Zou Jian, vice chairman of Metallurgical Mines' Association of China.

"If the negotiations can continue for another month, the situation will be even more advantageous to us, as FMG ores will further increase the supply," Zou said on the sidelines of a steel industry forum, speaking of shipments expected from Fortescue Metals Group Ltd. (FMG.AU).


Zou said in a speech at the forum that the first seaborne cargo of iron ore from FMG is expected to arrive at China in a month, which will probably result in an even lower price of ores.

Industry officials and analysts said that as Chinese steel mills are now short of cash, following official tightening measures to slow the rapidly expanding economy, high levels of iron ore stockpiles at the ports and the very limited upside expected for steel products imply that iron ore prices are likely to fall slightly from current high levels.

However, Chinese steel mills and Australian miners are expected to conclude the talks by the end of June, as a further delay would allow miners to sell more ore at spot rates, leading to even higher production costs for steel mills.


-Helen Sun contributed to this article; Dow Jones Newswires; "

Some investment funds are not keen on explorers
but producers are a different proposition.My guess is the
SP will easily go over $8.00 provided the shipping deadline
is meet.

 

[njc.corp]

Dear Nick
Good question but I personally do not know the answer. My guess is the effect on Rio or BHP share will be a little. The reason both of the organisations are multi product miners whereas FMG is a single product would be miner. Ask some of our astrologer friends in this site who has the crystal ball

However this will affect FMG's price if the deadline is NOT met. Market expectation is that FMG will meet its deadline and hence the price has probably been factored now.

If you happened to read today's West Australian then there is something which I did not like. Suddenly FMG has decided not to celebrate its FOOS in May and wait for one month until it gets stabilised.
Under normal circumstances this is a good call. It is never happened that an EPCM project with such a high volume will have its full rate production from the date 1. One month time for stability is not unreasonable.

But for Twiggy who does not spare any opportunity to flash his card of publicity this sudden retraction from a high profile publicity for the first time and a bit of humility I see a sign of nervousness (or admittance of a reality)

For the sake of an Australian success story (an my little investment in FMG) I wish him and all FMG employees, contractors and investors a successful FOOS.

Thanks for the reply back miner-

i hope for everyone's sake the deadline is met(also for my sake)-u cant keep saying its coming and not produce anything like fmg have done-very good pr but the real facts is that may is here-and everyone's waiting

Nick--

 

[Miner]

This is something FMG enthusiastics will be interested.
March Quarterly report as published in ASX today 30 April is attached.
They have published the March Construction report in ASX on 28 APril.
Now let us read them together.

1. Project assessed over 95% completed as at 25 April as per Quarterly report.
   Overall project completion was assessed at 93.6% in Construction report by the end of March .
   So in effect only 1.4% over all project progressed in 25 days !
   ( I do realise there is a difference between value of work and actual work. It remains to be seen who explains what. Some times 1% of actual work as per schedule could be .5 or 5% of the value of work)
   
   Enjoy and wait for Mid May 08 for FOOS

 

[njc.corp]

Thanks for the update Miner-

its looks on target and i am pretty sure they are working their butt's off to meet the deadline- i only hope they do it for the share-holders and will also shut up the critics.
i cant see them going backwards after all the hard work they have done-

i watch their video the other day-while its a video and their can be a lot of cutting and pasting-the operation looks bigger and better then what the critics say and those newspaper reporters saying this and that-

Thanks Nick--

 

[tony montana]

lets be honest here....even if they dont meet the foos deadline and the market reacts and sends the sp down...i only see it as a opportunity to buy more at a cheaper rate....because in six months time the market would have forgotten all about that and be focussing on turn over only.
so i dont care to much about all the hype its years down the track that i am looking at.

 

[SM Junkie]

TM, totally agree with you, I'm looking to buy back in and I hoping that if they don't meet the deadline it will provide the ideal opportunity. When I look at FMG postposing their shipment for a few months, it looks like the time may be near to get this one back in the portfolio.

 

[Miner]

That is an irony. Depends on which side of the fence a trader is sitting : bull or bear.
If I am bullish on my investment then I pray for price to rise.
If I missed out to enter at right (?) time then I pray for price to fall so that I can re-enter.

It is like this if all houses are safe, there is no theft, cyclone, fire, storm, flood or collision - people will dispose the shares of insurance companies. If there are more problems then every one will insure their houses. So sometimes your problems are our business.

Sorry no direct FMG but probably universal philosophy we all know

 

[agro]

for those interested, there was an article in today's AFR about the backing FMG has by junior iron ore miners in the pilbara towards an open access railway ... its all against BHP if they don't want to share and be greedy considering only 1% of IO production comes from the line

also, another article on how the chinese wanted a 80% stake in FMG in 2005 but was rejected.

baosteel also wanting to increase their stake by purchasing it from the americans

 

[meganut]

What I like about FMG is that they have the rail infrastucture as a separate business that other IO players are now interested in using...hence more revenue.

Today started off ordinary and finished sensational, I reckon tomorrow will bring even better trading for FMG and think it will be another up day and we may hit the $8 mark for the first time in a while...

I'll even hazard a close above $8 bucks tomorrow arvo.

Cheers