FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[agro]

The recent dip might be a good buying opportunity, and yes forward numbers do look good still

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -2.6 -3.4 30.7 72.0
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

once more, the construction report put out today was for febuary so they targeted 3% for railway and achieve 6% to 93% (going by top of my head)

so come mid may the rate they going they will achieve it.. even if they don't they can still truck it

than the skeptics can no longer say FMG is an explorer and not a producer!!

once that first shipment is made FMG officially becomes a producer!

hows that sounds skeptics? (cough cough prawn_86)

 

[Go Nuke]

Quote:
Date: 14/3/2008
Author: Kevin Andrusiak
Source: The Australian --- Page: 24
Australian-listed iron ore hopeful Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) plans to deliverits first shipment from Western Australia in May 2008. Construction of arailroad linking the mine to the coast is about 90% complete, as is the terminalfacility at Port Anderson. However, FMG has called for an independentengineering firm to give it a final appraisal of the shiploader built in Chinato Australian specifications. The previous certifier was seen by the mininggroup as not sufficiently at arm's length from manufacturer ThyssenKrupp.On 13 March 2008 FMG stock closed $A0.24 lower at $A7.41

Haha had to laugh at that.

I'd say thats good thinking by someone at FMG.
Probably started out on the tools:>

I work in the Alumina industry building valves etc for refineries, and if you saw some of the crap that comes out of India and China...well lets just say its more than substandard.

Hence the reason Alcans recent expansion of Gove has blown out significantly

I still think FMG's sp will continue to roll on upwards But will set tighter stops when it gets closer to the first shipment date just to cover for any bad news.

 

[prawn_86]

why do you buy a stock based on P/E - i think its entirely up to you but personally its bs..

u said TMR had a low P/E ,,, meaning a good buy right? yet its going down??


fundamentals for the win..

Umm... PEs are fundamentals, not sure what you think they are.

Perhaps you should do some more research with regards to them.

I do not buy soley based on PEs, but they aid a decision.

once that first shipment is made FMG officially becomes a producer!

hows that sounds skeptics? (cough cough prawn_86)

If you actually read some posts objectively instead of just trying to have a crack at me the whole time you will notice that in my last post the figures i was posting were assuming that it is a producer and its projected figures would be met. IE - no commisioning or mining problems.

From now on i will only respond to intellectual posts, instead of those targeting my opinion.

 

[Duckman#72]

Excuse my ignorance but are people being a little too fixated about the "shipping date" in May?

It just seems to me that haggling over a day, week or even a month in relation "kick off" when a company and its administration has already achieved what they have done to date in the timeframe allotted, together with the huge amounts of resources it holds, seems somewhat petty and shortsighted.

In some ways it seems that a delay will give people a "victory" of sorts. But in the whole scheme of things - who cares? I've heard people say that if they don't meet the target delivery date the SP will be hammered by the market....will it really?........is the whole market so fixated on the short term?

The Yanks landed on the moon sightly after they anticipated they would......but who remembers that now? Only the glory remains.

Am I being too naive?

Duckman

 

[Go Nuke]

I've heard people say that if they don't meet the target delivery date the SP will be hammered by the market....will it really?........is the whole market so fixated on the short term?

Unfortunately...I believe the answer is YES

Even in my limited experience in the stock market if there was one thing that stuck out like dogs balls to me it was that the market always expects bigger, better and more! Fall short of that and the sp is punished. perhaps temporarily but punished:flush:

I agree that its disappointing to see such a thing, but a little dissappointment seems to have a large impact on the share price.

 

[agro]

Umm... PEs are fundamentals, not sure what you think they are.

Perhaps you should do some more research with regards to them.

I do not buy soley based on PEs, but they aid a decision.



If you actually read some posts objectively instead of just trying to have a crack at me the whole time you will notice that in my last post the figures i was posting were assuming that it is a producer and its projected figures would be met. IE - no commisioning or mining problems.

From now on i will only respond to intellectual posts, instead of those targeting my opinion.

prawn_86 - your opinion is not warranted especially seeing though you have not been following the stock for as many years as i have mate.

not to mention you'd probably have more capital if you backed the right stocks

 

[prawn_86]

prawn_86 - your opinion is not warranted especially seeing though you have not been following the stock for as many years as i have mate.

not to mention you'd probably have more capital if you backed the right stocks

My opinion is just as warranted as any other member on this forum. I suggest you change your tone and have more respect for other members of this community.

If you have a problem with this please discuss it with me via PM

 

[Miner]

Excuse my ignorance but are people being a little too fixated about the "shipping date" in May?

It just seems to me that haggling over a day, week or even a month in relation "kick off" when a company and its administration has already achieved what they have done to date in the timeframe allotted, together with the huge amounts of resources it holds, seems somewhat petty and shortsighted.

In some ways it seems that a delay will give people a "victory" of sorts. But in the whole scheme of things - who cares? I've heard people say that if they don't meet the target delivery date the SP will be hammered by the market....will it really?........is the whole market so fixated on the short term?

The Yanks landed on the moon sightly after they anticipated they would......but who remembers that now? Only the glory remains.

Am I being too naive?

Duckman

Duckman

You to my opinion not naive but very real.
I have been in the mining world for more than 27 years and that probably at least says I am a semi vintage car.
People are some what bias against FMG CEO for many things. One he stuffed Anaconda. Secondly even after stuffing he got his Midas touch back which made many people filthy rich including himself, his loyalists, his favourite stock broker like Southern Equities, Directors, loyal employees and contractors.
Some got jealous because they lost opportunity. You would notice some postings in this forum are like that.

BHP always delayed their project. No one complained. Rio delayed - over run . No one complained. BHP over run was more than $1B in HBI, and all major projects. HBI was a super flop. Any sensible guy who has had any experience in HBI plant would have said by visiting the plant .
BHP stuffed the steel plant at Whyalla. No one raised a finger at the national loss.
Once FMG becomes a producer (current debt equity ratio is 584% - basically company is surving on borrowed funds - that is true) then it will give Rio and BHP a run. That is why BHP management and Rio management felt threatened to loose their monopoly.

Since poor (?) Andrew firmed up his conviction the anti FMG gang started bad publicity. I therefore agree what in the earth will go down if he is delayed by one week. He only escalated by $37 M. Percentage wise it is insignificant for a capital project of $2B.

I am however convinced (based on my experience and knowledge in mining project in iron ore and likes) that does not matter what . Twiggy will make sure that FOOS happens in MAy 08. It will be probably one or two days earlier just to prove his worth to market.

As I said before production rate will be 35 MTPA until Sept 08 and not 55 MTPA (funny no one challenges that figure). Technically a production rate of 55 MTPA with one month delay is better than 35 MTPA on time. But market hype does not believe on that.

I do not own FMG shares nor paid by any of the media from FMG, Rio or BHP.

I am strongly believer of Australian ownership and until Chinese takes over FMG and ANdrew Forest does deliver I will have soft corner for the bloke from Western Australia compared to all yank leadership in other multi nationals siphoning money out of this country.

Regards

 

[agro]

games being played at the moment

i noticed two sells at 6.57 and 6.58 of approx 90,000

the one at 6.58 pulled just in time....


this quite clearly indicates that by scaring the market psychologically they will get FMG at a discount

happend the day before good friday too e.g. drop the price and then buy up the sell side

only suckers get caught though

 

[agro]

News in

Date: 28/3/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Age --- Page: B3

Fortescue Metals does not intent to raise additional equity to fund itsexpansion, according to CFO Chris Catlow. Speaking at the Euromoney AustraliaMarkets Financial Innovation Congress on 27 March 2008, Catlow said the companywas "most reluctant" to raise additional equity. The metals groupplans to ship the first production from its Pilbara iron ore project by May 2008and hopes to expand production to 200 million tonnes per year in the long term

news in today...

looks good to me

 

[agro]

Fortescue paper not in plan for expansion
Email Print Normal font Large font AdvertisementJamie Freed
March 28, 2008

FORTESCUE Metals has no plans to raise additional equity to help fund a costly expansion to 110 million tonnes of iron ore production a year.

The aspiring Pilbara miner will not ship the first production from its $3billion-plus iron ore project for another six weeks, but is focusing on plans to expand beyond the initial 45 million tonne production rate.

"We are most reluctant to issue new paper in the form of equity," Fortescue's chief financial officer, Chris Catlow, said during a presentation to the Euromoney Australian Markets Financial Innovation Congress in Sydney yesterday.

Fortescue, which was a junior explorer when the chief executive Andrew Forrest joined the company in 2003, has evolved into the country's third largest mining stock with a market value of $19 billion, on the back of a boom in demand for iron ore.

"We really picked up the ball and ran with it," Mr Catlow said. "We moved at lightning speed."

He said demand for steel - and therefore its main ingredient, iron ore - would remain incredibly strong through the next decade because of the rapid growth of infrastructure construction in emerging economies such as China, India, Brazil and Russia.

Mr Catlow said the Chinese economy was unlikely to suffer as a result of a recession in the US. "It's completely decoupled, in our view," he said, adding that record prices meant Fortescue would receive a margin of at least $US50 a tonne on its 50 million tonnes of production next year.

Fortescue is working to expand to 110 million tonnes of annual production capacity - and later 200 million tonnes - as quickly as possible. Mr Catlow said the plans were "very clearly defined" but the company was so far unwilling to "put a cross on its forehead" and name the date the expansions would be completed.

Fortescue was "very keen" to invoke a dividend policy of "modest proportion" as soon as possible despite its expansion plan. He noted many executives - including Mr Forrest - had received small salaries in return for large shareholdings and therefore hoped to be rewarded through dividend payments.

more news - looks like media grabbing some early attention - i am sure more news to come

fingers crossed re - dividend too

 

[Miner]

Haha had to laugh at that.

I'd say thats good thinking by someone at FMG.
Probably started out on the tools:>

I work in the Alumina industry building valves etc for refineries, and if you saw some of the crap that comes out of India and China...well lets just say its more than substandard.Hence the reason Alcans recent expansion of Gove has blown out significantly

Hi Go Nuke

I missed your mail to read in full content earlier. Sunday gives the chance to go back and see if I can dig some gold out of the postings.
I noted under FMG you have dug out some dirt on valve quality from China and India as crap. That is a bit of aggression. There is crap every where and that is not limited to China or India. We get very good quality valves from Israel and crap from Australia. Without naming the Australian company I have seen valves of FM (Factory Mutual) quality I could import from USA and after paying air freight they came cheaper while using an agent in Adelaide. I paid at least 20% more for a Victorian valve and that too was only SSL (Scientific Services Lab) approved and not FM approved.

Now a days a large extent of valves are getting manufactured and if you see the top class refineries in India probably they would not have survived if the valves from CHina and India were crap.

I do agree if your data base is more than 12 years old - you earned a merit.
However with latest industrial situation in China and India and quality of products from there I would probably discount any statement (as crap) calling products from those countries as crap .

Sorry folks - it was not relevant to FMG thread but more of a right to reply situation.

Cheers

 

[renim]

still off topic
any aussie who looks for cheap from china will likely get cheap/nasty.
but if you take some care, and demonstrate to the chinese that you care, you can get cheap and good quality.

for example, where was your mobile phone made?
i bet you didn't source it yourself from china.

back to fmg

they have an office in shanghai...
therefore, they are likely to have demonstrated to the chinese that they care.
the quality should be good . correction, for the chinese to have delivered as per twiggy's schedule, it is likely that twiggy had more than average expeditor's involved, supervision and communication greatly assist quality.

my 2cents worth, he'll probably make it in May, first ore on ship anyway.
completion is a vague thing, first ore on ship is not.

personnaly, i thought twiggy's anaconda job was better than resolutes or gutnick's attempt. so that makes him the best of 3. and nickel was pretty cheap then...

think annaconda as where he learnt his lessons, the bad projects give good lessons.

 

[Miner]

FOOT is on time- significant milestone achieved. Notional but very pertinent.
See attached report.
What was reported in ASX AS WELL in West Australian today that between Graeme Rowly and Herbert Elliot Opes saga has wiped out $25 M of their shares.
Watch FMG price today and onwards now.

Cheers

 

[agro]

FOOT is on time- significant milestone achieved. Notional but very pertinent.
See attached report.
What was reported in ASX AS WELL in West Australian today that between Graeme Rowly and Herbert Elliot Opes saga has wiped out $25 M of their shares.
Watch FMG price today and onwards now.

Cheers

Very very significant

wait for the next milestone - the shipment

and then the increase in output every year

twiggy keeps denying the public skeptics...

those who are onboard will be rewarded

 

[agro]

FORTESCUE Metals is trumpeting the delivery of its first trainload of iron ore from the Pilbara to port, but has yet to reach the crucial milestone of loading a ship.

Chief executive Andrew Forrest said yesterday that the loading of ore at the company's Hunter rail siding, about 80km from its mine at Cloudbreak, was "highly significant".

"It is the planned access point for other users as an open access siding, and the point where the proposed spur line out to Fortescue's large Solomon deposit will branch off its main line," he said.

However, with the rail line still 10km short of the mine itself, the ore needed to be transported to the siding by truck before being loaded on to the train. The rail line is expected to be completed later this week.

From the siding, the ore made a 185km rail journey to Fortescue's newly dubbed Herb Elliot Port, named after the company's chairman, who last week lost about $20 million in Fortescue stock that he was understood to have lodged with collapsed broker Opes Prime as collateral on a loan.

Once at port, the ore was unloaded into stockpile areas to provide a base for future deliveries, so that reclaiming systems used to pick the ore up for loading on to ships did not pick up underlying soil.

However, it will be at least a month before Fortescue loads its first ore on to ships for export as the commissioning of the port infrastructure is also yet to be completed.

While Fortescue said the delivery was a successful test of its train unloading and stockpiling systems, it had yet to "wet commission" its ship-loading equipment.

The ship loader, built in China by Thyssen Krupp to an Australian design, was delivered in January, after which Fortescue called in an engineering firm to look it over.

The company is believed to have been dissatisfied with the original assessment and argued that the review was not sufficiently independent of Thyssen Krupp, ordering a second assessment in mid-March. The second review also cleared the loader for use, and Mr Forrest said yesterday that the company remained on track to have its first ore loaded on to a ship in mid-May.

"This is the first and vital step to commissioning the entire operation. It is the major step towards achieving first ore on ship, production ramp-up and overall project completion," he said.

"The operational commencement of Fortescue's rail and port heralds the opening up of Australia's, and one of the world's, richest mineral provinces and is a milestone achievement for the Pilbara and Australia."

A successful delivery of ore on a ship by Fortescue would mark the end of Pilbara iron ore production duopoly currently enjoyed by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

"In so doing it will assist the growth of the Chinese, Indian and broader Asian region economies through their critical steel industries," Mr Forrest said.

Iron ore prices are expected to rise by more than 70 per cent this year, as Chinese demand continues to surge.

 

[Frankhalo]

See Images posted today

http://www.fmgl.com.au/IRM/content/project_imagegallery.htm


On April 6th 2008, Fortescue celebrated a landmark moment when it transported its first load of Cloudbreak ore to Port Hedland. The train, newly named the Alannah MacTiernan Express, carried the first ore 185km from the Hunter Siding to the ore car dumper where it was automatically unloaded and conveyed to the stockpile yards at the Fortescue Herb Elliott Port.

LOL = Fortescue Herb Elliott Port Æ’ º, he now wants it back to re-coup funds

To all you doubters, knockers etc please check out the pics at link provided and enjoy.

Regards

Frank

 

[agro]

See Images posted today

http://www.fmgl.com.au/IRM/content/project_imagegallery.htm


On April 6th 2008, Fortescue celebrated a landmark moment when it transported its first load of Cloudbreak ore to Port Hedland. The train, newly named the Alannah MacTiernan Express, carried the first ore 185km from the Hunter Siding to the ore car dumper where it was automatically unloaded and conveyed to the stockpile yards at the Fortescue Herb Elliott Port.

LOL = Fortescue Herb Elliott Port ļ, he now wants it back to re-coup funds

To all you doubters, knockers etc please check out the pics at link provided and enjoy.

Regards

Frank

thanks frank, i got a new avatar now

true blue aussie battler twiggy is with his aussie flag being waved

 

[Frankhalo]

LOL, gotta love those Twiggy train pics Agro, have to hand it to the bloke he knows how to promote the major milestones FMG have taken in the past 4 years. Regardless its all falling into place nicely, love to see $10+ in the next five weeks ( first shipment May15th ), think alot of people, instos etc that are sitting on there hands will step up from this point and the coming weeks.

 

[agro]

FMG reconfirms first iron ore shipment to China

http://steelguru.com/news/index/200..._first_iron_ore_shipment_to_China_in_May.html

Mr Andrew Forrest CEO of Fortescue Metals Group reconfirmed at Boao Forum for Asia held in Hainan that Fortescue Metals Group would begin exporting 20 million tonnes to 30 million tons of iron ore to China this year, approximately 95% of its total output to China's Baosteel Group in May.

Mr Forrest said the ongoing iron ore benchmark price negotiation would not influence the shipments. He said that "We do not fix prices. Our task is to sell as many iron ore as possible since our customers are anxious for sufficient supply."

The data show that so far the Australian miner has inked ten-year-plus supply contracts with 35 large and medium domestic steelmakers with total export volume coming near 100 million tonnes per annum.

It is learned that FMG did not launch actual shipments in 2007, hence it did not join the benchmark price negotiation this year, but it may participate in the negotiation next year as its capacity is released.