FMG - Fortescue Ltd

[Go Nuke]

wow!
10Mil shares went through this morning before the open! I wonder what thats all about?
Id love to see FMG engage in some more drilling that would send the share price into space u would think

 

[The Barbarian Investor]

Received newletter analysis that they may be heading down (unless they head up)

Should be an interesting day for them....either way

 

[Boggo]

From an Elliott Wave perspective its not a pretty sight.

Two things happen in these cases, if its right you make money, if its wrong your stoploss gets hit.

With a R/R of over 5 it is a pretty sight.

28th Feb. and 18th March charts...

 

[Prospector]

The price rise so far today kind of blows a few theories out of the way! Maybe the chart theories simply dont apply to a company that is very uniquely placed - ie a new miner with significant resources with a confirmed contract with China? Perhaps in a years time the charts might tell the story, or even later this year, but not just yet.

 

[MRC & Co]

The price rise so far today kind of blows a few theories out of the way! Maybe the chart theories simply dont apply to a company that is very uniquely placed - ie a new miner with significant resources with a confirmed contract with China? Perhaps in a years time the charts might tell the story, or even later this year, but not just yet.

This is what I have been saying lately. My charting techniques served me very ordinarily over the past while and as such, I have thrown my charting hat in the bin for the time being.

Too many chart patterns have been well off the mark!

Ive turned to new indicators for the time being. None being TA, see how we go.

TA works in trending markets a lot better, only TA I look at now is up, down or sideways along with momentum. Very very simple.

Looks like a few guys here have been over at thechartist.com.au with this EW analysis. I was reading it the other day, thinking very nice analysis by Nick, impressive. However, worried a bounce in the US markets last night (due to the reasons I discussed in the XAO analysis thread), would disrupt the trend.

 

[Nick Radge]

MRC & Co.
The bounce in the US may well disrupt the trend, yet today the stock has closed at the lows again. The important information is the 'effort' that was excerpted. Effort = volume and todays ultra high volume means a lot of effort. So, if we saw a lot of effort, a lot of transactions, and the end result was a close on the low, then it suggests sellers remain in control.

The thing to remember, and importantly, is that I know when I'm wrong. Those that bought MQG at $90 looking for $110, ZFX at $16 looking for $10, PEM at $4 looking for $5, NWS at $30 looking for $35, BNB at $25 looking for $40, may consider that and the inadequacies of fundamental valuations. Its not being wrong that damages one's capital. Its staying wrong that wipes them out.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[MRC & Co]

MRC & Co.
The bounce in the US may well disrupt the trend, yet today the stock has closed at the lows again. The important information is the 'effort' that was excerpted. Effort = volume and todays ultra high volume means a lot of effort. So, if we saw a lot of effort, a lot of transactions, and the end result was a close on the low, then it suggests sellers remain in control.

The thing to remember, and importantly, is that I know when I'm wrong. Those that bought MQG at $90 looking for $110, ZFX at $16 looking for $10, PEM at $4 looking for $5, NWS at $30 looking for $35, BNB at $25 looking for $40, may consider that and the inadequacies of fundamental valuations. Its not being wrong that damages one's capital. Its staying wrong that wipes them out.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

I completely agree Nick. I learnt the second half the hard way, not setting tight enough stops and having half my yearly profits wiped out. Lucky, my trading phsycology allowed me to cut those losses and get out (have to be an idiot not too on such strong downward momentum). Have to be an idiot not to recognise this momentum earlier, but hey, you live and you learn.

I also agree on the FMG example, doesnt look good, the bears sure ate up the bulls.

Divergence from materials to financials will aid the downtrend of FMG, though inflationary pressures and good news from China would send this in the opposite direction (however, this would be more a medium-term effect), and as you know, all will be seen in price trend.

Question is now: Where to over the next few trading days.....continuation of momentum or profit taking/further capitulation of the bulls. I will be glued VERY closely.

Disclaimer: I do not own FMG, nor am I shorting.

 

[agro]

I completely agree Nick. I learnt the second half the hard way, not setting tight enough stops and having half my yearly profits wiped out. Lucky, my trading phsycology allowed me to cut those losses and get out (have to be an idiot not too on such strong downward momentum). Have to be an idiot not to recognise this momentum earlier, but hey, you live and you learn.

I also agree on the FMG example, doesnt look good, the bears sure ate up the bulls.

Divergence from materials to financials will aid the downtrend of FMG, though inflationary pressures and good news from China would send this in the opposite direction (however, this would be more a medium-term effect), and as you know, all will be seen in price trend.

Question is now: Where to over the next few trading days.....continuation of momentum or profit taking/further capitulation of the bulls. I will be glued VERY closely.

Disclaimer: I do not own FMG, nor am I shorting.

look at it this way compared to the remainder of the market, i don't think FMG has faired too badly.. yes the upward trend has stopped somewhat but that is attributed to by whats happening in america etc..

once the market is back on track, FMG (and majority) of other stocks will be in an upward phase..

if BHP/RIO get the 71% increase in iron ore prices this also needs to be forecasted into the price of FMG which plans on increasing their output every year..

don't discount this stock.

 

[tigerboi]

I think from a forward perspective on the FMG sp with still the market setiment & volatility coupled with the logistics setbacks in the construction of the railway,there looks to be opportunities to get into FMG at sub $6.00. As the jigsaw has yet to come together inparticular the may foos where i can see if twiggy has to get on the shovel as he promised,FMG is going to get slammed,i reckon he needed another 3 months due to the cyclone...TB

Twiggys shovel...

 

[reece55]

MRC & Co.
The bounce in the US may well disrupt the trend, yet today the stock has closed at the lows again. The important information is the 'effort' that was excerpted. Effort = volume and todays ultra high volume means a lot of effort. So, if we saw a lot of effort, a lot of transactions, and the end result was a close on the low, then it suggests sellers remain in control.

The thing to remember, and importantly, is that I know when I'm wrong. Those that bought MQG at $90 looking for $110, ZFX at $16 looking for $10, PEM at $4 looking for $5, NWS at $30 looking for $35, BNB at $25 looking for $40, may consider that and the inadequacies of fundamental valuations. Its not being wrong that damages one's capital. Its staying wrong that wipes them out.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

I'm with Nick here - been watching this one closely lately and if you have, it has been smelling of distribution for a week and a bit..... Every time it got anywhere close to around about the 8 level or so, someone has been selling big time..... looks like the buyers have lost the will to drive this one higher and the momentum will move to the sellers quickly....

The intra day chart says it all - on this timeline for the last 10 days, nothing but selling everyday...... I still find it amusing that a Company that hasn't delivered a singe shred of ore is worth more than 3x Qantas....... HAHA...

Cheers

 

[agro]

tigerboi in particular - stick your shovel, you will be eating your own words come may shipment.. and do some research please re - the railway construction try and save yourself some embarrassment

if you don't understand research - have a look at their investor presentations... FMG has 40,000 km² tenement, biggest in australia, they still have another billion so iron ore in reserve..


so far the skeptics have it all wrong .... but continue to be skeptical caus once your skepticism is defied you will be buying into it the stock just like your fellow skeptic friends

edit - what gets me is why do people like you continue to post such remarks?

 

[mrgroundwork]

tigerboi in particular - stick your shovel, you will be eating your own words come may shipment.. and do some research please re - the railway construction try and save yourself some embarrassment

if you don't understand research - have a look at their investor presentations... FMG has 40,000 km² tenement, biggest in australia, they still have another billion so iron ore in reserve..


so far the skeptics have it all wrong .... but continue to be skeptical caus once your skepticism is defied you will be buying into it the stock just like your fellow skeptic friends

edit - what gets me is why do people like you continue to post such remarks?

biased much agro? you must be balls deep long in this stock to come out with such a rant...

bottom line is not everyone believes the fairytale FMG story... a lot of people with long term memories have no faith in forrest... and let's be honest... to date he is yet to deliver anything concrete... hope he makes you rich agro, but i get the feeling that the market is waiting to smack this stock on even the slightest hint that FMG might not hit their forecasts...

 

[spectrumchaser]

Hi guys,

No need for friendly posts to start getting emotional.
the opportunatety to make huge returns out of this stock are already
history.

Jan 2007 you could have picked up this stock for the equivalent of
one dollar and sold in March 2008 for eight.The wise ones that climbed on even earlier and held on have even larger smiles.

 

[tigerboi]

My understanding is the mine is about 260-270 kms from port(see map in tolhurst research) so thats roughly a 540km round trip,as for 15 roadtrains it will have to be 30 to shift that amount of fe,you wont get a permit to go to port as MMX is only allowed 147t gross for 100t per trip,so work it out how much needs to go by road? 1mt at 100t a truck,10,000 trips required,maximum per driver a day is 2,did someone say 1mt in a month?333 trips a day,nope not in a month,too many drivers & trucks required...sorry it seems its 4500t a day,45 trips a day,trucks do 3 trips but drivers only allowed to do 2 as per work/drivehours,can be done sure but the best for the 4500t scenario is to go a little bit more as you will get many break downs,i would go 20 roadtrains & 40 drivers in a shuttle opreation...This is why i got out at $50 as i understood from my transport experience the rail would not be on time,if you want to see a heap of number crunching on the hole FMG set up,go on their website to brokers reports,here:http://www.fmgl.com.au/IRM/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1322&PageName=BBY Research

Here is the best,it even tells you how many flies are on twiggys back when he lobs at cloud break!...

cheers....tb

agro it seems you failed anger management,me i passed even though i slept through every session...as for research see the above posts posted only just the other day,as for missing out if you had done your own research you would have known that i sold FMG at $50.00,if taking 100% at $50.00 is missing out then it was a great miss!by the way i am not looking to get back into FMG as i did very good already,my current interests is in the transport side of the operation. you shouldnt let emotion get the better of you as it will cloud what judgement you may have,the only thing ive been skeptical about is the very tight deadline of foos in may,i work in the transport industry & i know all about ill timed set backs,i do sydney-melbourne in 8 hours 45 mins,sydney-brisbane in 11 hours,sydney-adelaide in 15 hours..i run overnight express freight to those cities in a 62.5 tonne gross b /double,if i get just 1 unexpected setback like the highway being blocked then my schedule is kaput,its called time sensitive freight.FMG i believed set too tight a schedule without taking into account the possibility of an act of god like a cyclone,thats why i believe they wont make the deadline,while i believe i first brought up the subject of the use of roadtrains to get the ore to ship,it has not been a secret that FMG may not make the may foos,so you could look at it as a good buying opportunity as its fall to sub $5.00 recently was,& lastly dont try & treat me like a a fool..also if you ask joe nicely he might show you a FMG post of mine that was moderated ages ago for predicting that FMG will hit 3 figures... numbskull you do your research...

 

[Miner]

To be or not To Be!
I noticed there are few very interesting postings. Latest from Tiger Boi was very polite, subdued, gentle and balanced. Well done my friend and does not matter which scrip your comments would have been - they were writing wise excellent.

I also noticed some cynicism, skeptism, frustration (may be bought at a high price or just missed out) and emotion.

My sincere advise is to keep emotion in left pocket and see how much dollars can be done in right pocket. We hate or love it - FMG is going to be a real success story on a short term. Operating wise they are not very good and so safety wise less than standard. But they have the blessing of good luck and right time- so in short time in another month - see yourself what happens the share price. There is sign of some buy out is predictive and business wise probably Andrew needs someone else to share the cost for next expansion and to take the baton from him.

My only question - why we are so unkind to someone Made in Australia where as all Made in USA companies are making big holes in finance market still we are forgiving them.

Good luck.

 

[Prospector]

There are a couple of alternatives that chartists are saying is occurring.

If it is the truth that the deadlines will not be met; then only those people 'in the know' would be aware of this, and these are the ones who are selling when the price starts to surge. And that is insider trading. Because the opposite has been conveyed to the market.

If it is people just guessing that the deadline will not be met (based on past history), then how relevant is that to the long term strength of FMG? It isnt, at all.

"a lot of people with long term memories have no faith in forrest" Well, if that is the case, would they really have bought any FMG shares in the first place? Hardly!

So which is it? Insider trading, or people guessing?

 

[ans25]

CLoudbreak is in the middle of nowhere, and I hear it is cyclone season so if it buckets down, im sure the dirt roads are going to get closed.
Hmmm maybe we can air freight the ore and then Qantas can be going up again!

 

[meganut]

The price rise so far today kind of blows a few theories out of the way! Maybe the chart theories simply dont apply to a company that is very uniquely placed - ie a new miner with significant resources with a confirmed contract with China? Perhaps in a years time the charts might tell the story, or even later this year, but not just yet.

Prospector, your too smart, I agree with you, I hate seeing the SP smashed at times but your words are true, when they have a year under their belt and all the commissioning hiccups are out of the way (and there will be a few, I've worked on some IO projects and seen commissioning woes that can last a year or more, especially if they need to wash impurities from fines) then we will see some stability in the SP.

 

[meganut]

I think from a forward perspective on the FMG sp with still the market setiment & volatility coupled with the logistics setbacks in the construction of the railway,there looks to be opportunities to get into FMG at sub $6.00. As the jigsaw has yet to come together inparticular the may foos where i can see if twiggy has to get on the shovel as he promised,FMG is going to get slammed,i reckon he needed another 3 months due to the cyclone

I'm with Agro on this one...stick your shovel Tigerboi, you ever been in the IO industry around cyclones...nope?...well I have and that last one was nothing, a 2 or 3 day setback at most, what stop mines is water and lots of it...ie FLOODING...rain and wind...bah NOTHING!!!

 

[agro]

agro it seems you failed anger management,me i passed even though i slept through every session...as for research see the above posts posted only just the other day,as for missing out if you had done your own research you would have known that i sold FMG at $50.00,if taking 100% at $50.00 is missing out then it was a great miss!by the way i am not looking to get back into FMG as i did very good already,my current interests is in the transport side of the operation. you shouldnt let emotion get the better of you as it will cloud what judgement you may have,the only thing ive been skeptical about is the very tight deadline of foos in may,i work in the transport industry & i know all about ill timed set backs,i do sydney-melbourne in 8 hours 45 mins,sydney-brisbane in 11 hours,sydney-adelaide in 15 hours..i run overnight express freight to those cities in a 62.5 tonne gross b /double,if i get just 1 unexpected setback like the highway being blocked then my schedule is kaput,its called time sensitive freight.FMG i believed set too tight a schedule without taking into account the possibility of an act of god like a cyclone,thats why i believe they wont make the deadline,while i believe i first brought up the subject of the use of roadtrains to get the ore to ship,it has not been a secret that FMG may not make the may foos,so you could look at it as a good buying opportunity as its fall to sub $5.00 recently was,& lastly dont try & treat me like a a fool..also if you ask joe nicely he might show you a FMG post of mine that was moderated ages ago for predicting that FMG will hit 3 figures... numbskull you do your research...

i might have failed anger management but i certainly did not fail picking good stocks

and to mention you sold at $50 just confirms your regret (and now uncertainty) for not holding on longer.