EXM - Excalibur Mining Corporation

[mick2006]

I have been reading a bit about EXM - and have come to the conslusion it can go two ways. Obvious really.

I cant work out why people are relating it to KAL, and then run that it had its results when the market cap of KAL is already less than half of EXM.

Can anyone shed any light on that side of things? EXM have a bigger drill area?

firstly if you use the fully diluted market caps of both companies EXM is not worth double KAL it works out to be around $13 million more, last time I worked it out.

the reason why so many are exciting about the possibilities of EXM is the location of their drill campaign, historically they have had some incredible drill results from the area (see recent agm presentation for historical results), the big advantage that EXM has over KAL is average grade.

I'm not saying that EXM is a better company than KAL as I have made significant money out of both, but the reason alot of people value EXM higher than KAL is the higher head grades and explorational upside.

 

[Spaghetti]

Mick they both have a target of 2 million oz. So not sure where the greater exploration upside for EXM comes from.

You cannot compare grades of 1,2 moz against a deposit of what ? less than 200,00 oz for the open pit jorc of EXM. EXM does have the better average grade for the open pit but then KAL could just leave out most of it's resource and make the same claim for perhaps even more than 200,000 oz.

KAL is at the end of a resource definition stage and EXM at the start. EXM have stated they need to do a capital raising and 12 mths drilling campaign, KAL has finished so market cap for EXM is about double.

I see EXM as far more speculative, no drill results yet. However it has been accumulated by someone..so either stock manipulation or they know more than anyone else. They have that advantage and nothing more at this stage. Company run by a stockbroker? perhaps knows the tricks to get buyer interest. Never hurts. But it has been the main factor in the increased s/p. Not news, not the POG, nothing has pushed this s/p up more than the accumulator. So you would hope they do know more than the market but all I read is they MIGHT have a good resource. No proof whatesoever. I only imagine they would not undertake a drilling campaign if they did not hold out much hope but that does not make them a better choice than KAL.

Grade comparison is useless as I have pointed out before, as EXM include underground grades in it's average. You cannot compare an apple with an orange. They have started drilling the open first because it is easier and cheaper to mine. If grades were of the essence first off the rank would have been juno.

I am not downramping EXM at all, like yourself , have made money from both but gold is very, very difficult to find in large quantities at higher grades so I would not try to get anyones hopes up with totally no proof.

I hope it does well and maybe with the accumulator onside people can make soem money but it will not be due to any fundamental reason at this stage.

 

[mick2006]

Hey Spaghetti, I am certainly not forcing anyone to buy into EXM, yes they are certainly a speculative stock.

They do have a JORC resource of 530,000 oz's at a head grade of 7.12 g/t

The only thing investors can base any decisions on in regards EXM is the historical drill results they have released, the fact they have a decent JORC resource, and the area they are exploring is very prospective for gold (if they actually find anything more its unknown at this stage but likely given location)

There is no doubt the stock is being manipulated and it is very very frustrating, for what reason I guess it will unfold over time.

EXM is one of those stock that is high risk/high reward so its not for the feint hearted.

 

[kevinecom]

Hey Spaghetti, I am certainly not forcing anyone to buy into EXM, yes they are certainly a speculative stock.

They do have a JORC resource of 530,000 oz's at a head grade of 7.12 g/t

The only thing investors can base any decisions on in regards EXM is the historical drill results they have released, the fact they have a decent JORC resource, and the area they are exploring is very prospective for gold (if they actually find anything more its unknown at this stage but likely given location)

There is no doubt the stock is being manipulated and it is very very frustrating, for what reason I guess it will unfold over time.

EXM is one of those stock that is high risk/high reward so its not for the feint hearted.

Mick,
If that's the case, I think EXM should have more than 1Moz if they use the cut off grade of 1.7gt like Kal. EXM has higher grade than KAL.

 

[Aargh!]

Hey Spaghetti, I am certainly not forcing anyone to buy into EXM, yes they are certainly a speculative stock.

They do have a JORC resource of 530,000 oz's at a head grade of 7.12 g/t

The only thing investors can base any decisions on in regards EXM is the historical drill results they have released, the fact they have a decent JORC resource, and the area they are exploring is very prospective for gold (if they actually find anything more its unknown at this stage but likely given location)

There is no doubt the stock is being manipulated and it is very very frustrating, for what reason I guess it will unfold over time.

EXM is one of those stock that is high risk/high reward so its not for the feint hearted.

Hi mick,

I'm not certain how this stock is being manipulated. What evidence should I be looking for to come to this conclusion?

Thanks

 

[mick2006]

Hi Aargh,

if you have been closely watching the trading in EXM this week on several ocassions very large sell orders have been placed just above market price to try and spook holders to sell, what follows is a quick sell off by panicked holders and some large buying and as soon as it has played out the sell order is removed.

its unfortunate but most specs see this type of market manipulation from time to time.

Cheers

mick

 

[wombo]

Last night a whole slab (12mil) of options where given out to directors. I think the announcement might be pretty good

 

[nowork]

Last night a whole slab (12mil) of options where given out to directors. I think the announcement might be pretty good

I hope the announcement is soon, as I can't handle waiting.

Hmmm hopefully pretty good.

 

[nowork]

Wonder if results will be out this week.

Should be an interesting week to see which way EXM goes and if there will less trading up until the announcement or not.

 

[Sean K]

Punters expecting potential high grade results from Juno should perhaps be prepared for lower grades from the other targets.

From the last update:

These holes have consisted of RC precollars at Nobles Nob, and RC holes at Rising Sun and Nobles Nob West. The balance of the programme (approximately 7,000m) should be completed before the end of January 2008.

Check previous drilling at these deposits for the likely grades.

Juno in Jan by the sounds.

I say this as a suggestion that dumping shares on an ann that only indicates 20 g/t or less when there are expectations of 100 g/t ++, may not be fully considered. I expect that there will actually be a sell off because the market will not be fully aware that the Juno drilling has not been completed yet (from what we have been told) so it may represent an opportunity to me.

Unless anyone has a more advanced drilling update via the phone?

 

[mick2006]

certainly copping a beating today Kennas, I was a little concerned by the price action on Friday, it looks like the general market outlook is starting to overide any possible upside from the Tennant Creek exploration.

For the patient investor there is money to be made here, the results will flow over the coming months and hopefully the buyers will return, when the market settles down a little bit.

 

[adobee]

Punters expecting potential high grade results from Juno should perhaps be prepared for lower grades from the other targets.

From the last update:



Check previous drilling at these deposits for the likely grades.

Juno in Jan by the sounds.

I say this as a suggestion that dumping shares on an ann that only indicates 20 g/t or less when there are expectations of 100 g/t ++, may not be fully considered. I expect that there will actually be a sell off because the market will not be fully aware that the Juno drilling has not been completed yet (from what we have been told) so it may represent an opportunity to me.

Unless anyone has a more advanced drilling update via the phone?

It looks like there is already a bit of a sell off this morning..
$17 million shares sold so far down to 3.7c

 

[AussiePaul72]

certainly copping a beating today Kennas, I was a little concerned by the price action on Friday, it looks like the general market outlook is starting to overide any possible upside from the Tennant Creek exploration.

For the patient investor there is money to be made here, the results will flow over the coming months and hopefully the buyers will return, when the market settles down a little bit.

Mick, I'm hoping this sell down today is a good thing. The last thing i want to see is the market factoring in an extremely good announcement before any news is released which is a recipe for a big sell off when the announcement finally comes out.
I got in at 3.3-3.4 and i'd be happy if the SP hovered in the high 3's prior to drilling news release!

 

[Bushman]

Mick, I'm hoping this sell down today is a good thing. The last thing i want to see is the market factoring in an extremely good announcement before any news is released which is a recipe for a big sell off when the announcement finally comes out.
I got in at 3.3-3.4 and i'd be happy if the SP hovered in the high 3's prior to drilling news release!

With you there Aussie P - EXM has now been sold down for about 5 days in a row and finally buyers have dried up. It is a poor day for the markets all round so sell down is to be expected.

I don't think EXM should be a short term play - see the drilling results through and go for 2.5m oz. No point betting on one announcement. Some will be good, others bad.

Anyway ZFX's takeover for AGM taught me to stick by your instincts - sold those a month ago based on the way the sp was behaving rather than the obvious takeover potential. You never know what is around the corner and smart plays remain smart plays no matter what the short term market action.

Now if you want to see a bad ann, check out my employer CNP. A painful day at the office.

 

[JTLP]

The SP has been copping a battering today, but seems to have found resistance around the 3.8 cent level. Are the tennant creek results due this week? And are most of the sellers just nervous nellys trying to get in an out before T+3?

 

[imaginator]

The SP has been copping a battering today, but seems to have found resistance around the 3.8 cent level. Are the tennant creek results due this week? And are most of the sellers just nervous nellys trying to get in an out before T+3?

when is the tenant creek report coming out?

EXM got a beating today, now at 33

seems like many people think yesterday's 37 and 38 was cheap.

 

[nowork]

Not sure, hopefully soon.

With the week we are having on the market, if the news comes out positive. This could fly IMO with people searching through the blood for some green.

 

[AussiePaul72]

Well, I'd be interested to know what other ASFers think of todays SP movement? At the end of the day I was very encouraged. The SP slipped with the sentiment of the market this morning and was sold down. I'm not a TA person but it would appear that EXM has a very good support level around the 3c mark (Techies may want to comment further on this). With the XAO climbing back from nearly 150 points down, EXM rebounded well to finish at 3.6c. As mentioned before, i'm very comfortable with seeing the SP sit in the 3's prior to the first set of drilling results being announced. DYOR as i just tell it how i see it ..... which isn't always right!!! Good luck to all fellow holders and bring on the announcements

 

[Kremmen]

Interesting to see the new announcement that Aspermont increased their stake betwen 28/11 and 11/12 from 12.10% to 13.48%. I guess the question is: do Aspermont know what they're doing? As another play, is it worth buying Aspermont itself?

 

[cuttlefish]

ASP's stake increased due to shares issued to them for sale of Clement resources. They got 35 million shares. (they've sold 10 million in Nov at avg price of 3.95c then the 35 million were issued to them 14 Dec). (see appendix in the change in substantial shareholder notice).