EURUSD....Euro

[MARKETWAVES]

The Euro has this pattern intraday that apears to be firming up.. and as I write this people in the trading world are watching the GDP report that is about to come out tomorrow, Friday 7-29-05..

WHY WATCH GDP? THE GDP REPORT DOESNT MATTER .......


It's all in the charts ..................


What are these charts saying ?

Does it have to break out... for people to be interested in this ?

Well, that's too bad...... What do I see? Look below........

SOME SERIOUS base bulilding is happening in the EURO....


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


........

 

[excalibur]

Eurozone indicators show improvements

Eurozone indicators show improvements

Friday, July 29 10:35:35


Both indicators of economic sentiment and business climate in the eurozone showed improvements in July, the European Commission said today.

The EC said its eurozone economic sentiment indicator for July rose to 97.3 from 96.3 in June.

The industrial confidence component of the indicator improved to minus 8 from minus 10, while consumer confidence was unchanged at minus 15. Economists had forecast minus 9 for the industrial confidence indicator and minus 15 for consumer confidence.

The services sector posted a rise to 11 from 9, and construction improved to minus 13 from minus 14, while the retail trade worsened to minus 10 from minus 9.

The commission said the rise in the overall economic sentiment indicator was due mainly to the easing of the euro, the stabilisation of oil prices, and the beginnings of an upturn in global growth.

Meanwhile, eurozone business climate indicator improved to minus 0.07 in July from minus 0.27 in June, the European Commission said.

The commission said the improvement was reflected in almost all the indicator's underlying components, particularly for production in recent months.

"Confidence among managers increased significantly also due to improved total order books and export order books," it said.

 

[RichKid]

Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )

Nice charts again MW, I tend to have more confidence in rounding bottoms than other turns, this one is not the perfect example but it's close enough- woe for the USD!!

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )

RICHKID.....

ITS NOT the rounding bottom that is of intrest ..... Its the multiple resistance lines that are highlighted in yellow... it has already pulled back 4 times an has created a neckline . The logic , is if prices start moving in that direction again ,,, can it be strong enough to break through .... the breaking of a resistance line is more important in a bullish set-up than what kind of bottom formation is being formed ....

 

[MARKETWAVES]

Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )

EURO ....

THE results are in ......

Serious Base Building that is paying off .....


It's all in the chats ... FORGET THE NEWS

 

[Kauri]

Re: Euro.... ( going up again ? )

At an interesting stage.. EURUSD..

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

I don't track a wave-count on EUR/USD, but the last few weeks have suggested the following to me...

 

[Kauri]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

I don't track a wave-count on EUR/USD, but the last few weeks have suggested the following to me...

Yes, thats how i see it too, am also looking at the larger picture, is this the 5 leg A?? Or maybe an extremely bukkish short ABC that has only retraced 23%?..

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

Yes, thats how i see it too, am also looking at the larger picture, is this the 5 leg A?? Or maybe an extremely bukkish short ABC that has only retraced 23%?..

Yeah Kauri, that's an interesting point.
Look at the weekly chart below of the EURUSD. Off the peak in Dec 2004 we appear to have 5 waves down followed by 5 waves up. Which is the impulse??? Answer: It can be either one, but it can't be both. If you view the internal wave subdivisions of what appears to be a 5 wave decline in 2005 in lower timeframes such as daily or 8Hr timeframe bars, then there is no way it counts as an impulse but rather a complex correction. The same can almost be said about the the leg up. It could be that both these legs are corrective.

This ambiguity came up in a conversation with Radge some weeks ago, with regard to what appeared to be a 5 wave structure in Gold. My point here is that you must never assume 5 waves, but rather to use as many means as possible to quantify your wave counts. Over the years I have seen patterns that appeared to be 5 waves against a larger trend. Because I assume 5 waves then there would have to be some follow through after an abc against those 5 waves. But what would happen instead was that the market would move in the opposite direction once those 5 waves where finished and not only fully retrace then but exceed the origin. So What appears to be 5 waves has to be quantified by other means or by price levels, fibonacci expansions/ratios or time factors or all of these, that may help validate/invaidate a probable scenario.

Cheers

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

i expect that eurusd is going to close above 1.3000 , it seems that the correction is over, the weekly bar should not close below 1.2890 , in the weekly chart i attached you can see that eur corrected to test the broken traingle , everything is not clear but as we have this weeks important data , the market already expected that the rate won`t be changed 5.25, and the unemployment rate will be the same but i expect that data of the changing in the nonfarm payrolls will be a little less than 148 k which its the number that was expected by the market. i see that eurusd is going north and i hope that the support 1.2890 - 1.2870 won`t be taken.
i attach the weekly chart and also the cot chart and there you can see that the commercials ( the dogs ) have increased their positions in long and so did the large traders and you can see the open intrest rised to 169 , i hope this two weeks eurusd break up 1.3000 so things will be more clear.

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

good mornin aussies
eurusd broke up the down trendline in the 4h chart.

eur is going to test 1.3050 level, where i gonna cash all my positions.
1.3185 is very important resistance , whenever eurusd reach it i will sell for 50 pips gain, i still see the eurusd is going north.

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

i expect that eurusd is going to close above 1.3000 , it seems that the correction is over, the weekly bar should not close below 1.2890 , in the weekly chart i attached you can see that eur corrected to test the broken traingle , everything is not clear but as we have this weeks important data , the market already expected that the rate won`t be changed 5.25, and the unemployment rate will be the same but i expect that data of the changing in the nonfarm payrolls will be a little less than 148 k which its the number that was expected by the market. i see that eurusd is going north and i hope that the support 1.2890 - 1.2870 won`t be taken.
i attach the weekly chart and also the cot chart and there you can see that the commercials ( the dogs ) have increased their positions in long and so did the large traders and you can see the open intrest rised to 169 , i hope this two weeks eurusd break up 1.3000 so things will be more clear.

the data is out of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its less than expected only 111k , also the data of unemployment rate is rised to 4.6%

i have cashed all my positions and will be waiting for the next week

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

have a nice weekend everybody

 

[theasxgorilla]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

Hi Naif,

Thanks! A great weekend to you too.

I'm really digging your posts on the USDEUR cross-rate. Keep going!
The ASX Gorilla.

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

back again before i go to bed

howdy the asx gorilla?
thx for ur post..

the eurusd is now 1.2951 and i think its a big game from wallstreet, they want to make market think that eurusd is going down so they can hit alot of stop losses and then they make new buy orders, well i already placed a new order to buy from 1.2947 + spread 3 pips 1.2950 ..
the stop loss is 1.2920, and the 1st target is 1.3150 ...

i just wanted to share you ppl my own analysis , i dont recommend anyone to buy or sell and i`m just telling you my orders so its up to you if you want to use it or not.


again ppl have a nice weekend

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

back again before i go to bed

howdy the asx gorilla?
thx for ur post..

the eurusd is now 1.2951 and i think its a big game from wallstreet, they want to make market think that eurusd is going down so they can hit alot of stop losses and then they make new buy orders, well i already placed a new order to buy from 1.2947 + spread 3 pips 1.2950 ..
the stop loss is 1.2920, and the 1st target is 1.3150 ...

i just wanted to share you ppl my own analysis , i dont recommend anyone to buy or sell and i`m just telling you my orders so its up to you if you want to use it or not.


again ppl have a nice weekend

the price didnt reach 1.2947 and the low was 1.2950..
the eurusd closed at 1.2960..

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

again with the cot charts

we see that the large spec has increased their positions while the commercial trdaers didnt increase, and the open intrest rised 174 ..
well .. i think it will be wise to buy eurusd, but we should watch 1.3185 levels , it will be very important

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

hello ppl ...
we are starting a new week and today we got important data.
we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...

i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...

again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..

good luck

 

[wavepicker]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

hello ppl ...
we are starting a new week and today we got important data.
we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...

i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...

again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..

good luck

Hi Naif, agree with your comments. I am short the USDJPY for 1 week now but plan to close out trade in the next few days when this correction will end IMO. I think the EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped and the larger trend is down. We should be using the rallies to position for short positions

Cheers

 

[Naif]

Re: Euro.... (going up again?)

Hi Naif, agree with your comments. I am short the USDJPY for 1 week now but plan to close out trade in the next few days when this correction will end IMO. I think the EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped and the larger trend is down. We should be using the rallies to position for short positions

Cheers

hello wavepicker, I do agree that its expected that eurusd is going down to 1.27 levels, but i expect that eurusd should go up to 1.3150 levels where the commercial will close their longs and start to short the eurusd for 1.27.
about the gbpusd i expect that soon the gbpusd will go 2.000 levels , because its said that the inflation in uk is growing so they will hike the intrest rates...

cheers