P2 Trade Book

[CanOz]

Ditto all the above, looking forward to this as Peter presents this in his ever disciplined and consistent manner. Something i really admire him for.

 

[peter2]

captain black: The boxes outline the main trading sessions throughout the day. The light blue is the Asian session that covers the ASX open hours plus one hour earlier. The green is the UK session starting 1hr before the LSE opens. This session runs into the US session that starts 1hr before the US markets open.

It's important to know these sessions exist and what markets are likely to move in which session. I won't take or fade a BO in the EUR or GBP during the Asian session but I'll be all over them in the UK/US sessions. Having the sessions outlined like in these charts helps me see what's happening in each session over the past few days.

This chart of WTI shows why there's no point trading oil during the Asian session (no movement), but afterwards, hell yeah.

 

[captain black]

This chart of WTI shows why there's no point trading oil during the Asian session (no movement), but afterwards, hell yeah.

Thanks Peter. Knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade. I use some code in my entry signals in Amibroker for the Kospi to keep me out of "choppy" price action (FESX, ES and SPI are still works in progress). I only trade index futures when the cash market is open but can see the benefits of having time zones outlined on your charts for commodities and forex.

 

[History Repeats]

Can't wait to see you trade futures.

Forex a good training for new comers better than stocks i reckon, you can start as low as possible with mini and micro lots. Especially good place to learn trend or swing trading. Also you can see money flow.

Ps: you will see some familiar stuff in this thread and older threads from guys like ta, pav, peter, th ect. You can take it and build a trading plan of your own.

 

[Wysiwyg]

3. Look for setups in the trading time frame (1H) in the direction of the trend indicated by the daily charts. There are two common setups that are defined by the depth of the corrective pullback;
shallow (<40%) => break-out entry into the trend
deep (50-61.8%) => ambush or reversal setup for entry into the trend

Hi. This will be interesting to me because I don't see other traders decision making from entry to exit in the shorter time frames. I see you get satisfaction from the interest shown like a teacher would from a class of keen students. Thank you.

 

[skc]

Good on you P2

 

[Lone Wolf]

Trading in this thread will stop if the draw down exceeds 10% combined equity of both accounts (currently -$6500).

Thank you Peter. I’m very interested to see how you approach other markets.

So the maximum drawdown tolerance of the total portfolio is 10%. If the ASX thread loses 6% then this thread will only tolerate a 4% drawdown before being halted?

That means trading in this thread could terminate even though the system itself is performing within expected boundaries. I take it you mean that you have more confidence in your ASX strategy, therefore if things turn sour (> 10% drawdown), you'll only take trades in the system you know best until you've recovered?

I can understand the idea of going back to basics if things get rough. But part of me is struggling with the fact that the ASX thread and this one are two different systems, each with their own expected win/loss ratio, max expected drawdown etc. yet this system is somewhat at the mercy of the ASX performance. On one hand, each system should be judged based on it's own performance. On the other hand, you can't allow them both to hit their max expected drawdown limit at the same time or it will blow the portfolio drawdown limit.

I almost didn't write that last paragraph, it's getting hung up on detail before you've even had a chance to start. And with enough thought I'll come to my own conclusion. But I thought I'd include it to show that your posts give people much to consider, most of which you will never see written here. A lack of posting doesn't always mean a lack of interest.

 

[peter2]

Sorry for the confusion. I'll be trying to limit the max DD to 10% of the total in each thread. Theoretically the max DD for the combined account could be 20% (10% each). However that would be unlikely as there would be some minor hedging happening so that the losses from the ASX thread would be offset by shorts on the SPI or another index. I anticipate that the max DD in this account will be smaller than the ASX thread. Trades in this thread will be shorter, less correlated and fewer open at the same time than the ASX portfolio.

Yes, they're two different systems, each with their own trade distributions and 10% DD limits.

I'm glad you reigned yourself back in there. You seemed to be getting stressed.

---------------

wysiwyg: I don't want to tell people how to trade these markets. I'm not going to provide a TP with objective setups and trade management rules like in the ASX thread. I thought about it, but these markets are more dynamic and sentiment changes quickly and I like to take advantage of that when it happens. I don't want any restrictions in this thread.

I'm comfortable showing a few of my trades as they happen. I don't really want to spend time discussing the setups. They may even seem random initially. Today was one of those random days. After the BOJ news one could see bullish signs in all equity markets. There was a high probability that the UK indices (FTSE, DAX FESX) would open up and continue higher for a little while. That's all a trader needs, a higher probability of the market moving in one direction. What happens after entry is trade management to create our edge.

Most days all I start with is the trend. If it's obviously down then all I'm looking for is a place to short it that looks like it'll provide an acceptable RR (like those two strategies you highlighted in the quote).

 

[peter2]

All trades will have an ID# to help discussion.

T01: Crude oil (long), Daily trend is UP, buying the BO of the Asian session range.

I have used the futures contract (CLX6) in this trade as the risk was within our limit for an intraday trade (<0.5%, <$325).
I have raised the sell stop from the iSL (49.10) to 49.17.



When I become used to the posting, my comments may include opinions the possible exit prices (targets).
eg. Oil has had 5 up days and I might be pushing it for another one. In this case I might accept a +1.5R result at 49.55. As I write this I see a little push up in price.

There will be no updates on these trades. The next notice will be at the end of the trade, whenever I end it.

 

[peter2]

T01: Crude Oil long: exit at 49.52
Result: Profit 0.22/0.20 = +1.1R Profit $276 AUD

Review: Standard BO of small range in a daily up trend. This trade was monitored using a tighter TS than normal due to the enormous pressure of posting the trade on ASF or due to the prior 5 consecutive up days or both.

TS raised to 49.17, then 49.25, then 49.32 (BE), then the stress got to me as price hit the 49.50 level (also the +1R).

Summary: A profitable although shaky start. I took much too long with the entry post and succumbed to the stress of the initial win. If CL goes to 50.00 this evening/night. It won't worry me at all. It was always going to be a very quick trade as I didn't want to hold this into the US open and definitely not hold during the CL inventory report later. The first trade is done, ninety nine to go.

 

[PeterJ]

You don't often get somebody with the time and inclination to teach you how to trade profitably - the opportunity should be grabbed with both hands.


:iagree:

an extremely rare occurrence in one's lifetime !
Your efforts are gratefully appreciated Peter
thank you

Peter

 

[lindsayf]

Nice P2!
I have been trading forex on the daily and weekly timeframes this year.
Will be following your progress and looking to glean some insights to improve my edge...assuming I have one.

 

[peter2]

Updates: I'll be providing updates in a similar format to the other thread.

The P&L from this thread will be converted to % and added to the returns from the ASX Mom Portfolio. The weekly ASX Mom Portfolio graph will continue to show the performance of the ASX Mom Port. as well as the combined performance (ASX + P2).

The aim of the P2 trade book is to earn a few % each month.

 

[peter2]

Review of Oct 16:

Failed to earn a few % [+0.6%].
Failed to post a minimum of 10 trades during the month [1].

Comment: Sorry about that. I have found the markets a little bit volatile on the larger time frames and I didn't want to post too many trades done on 5M charts. I traded during the 24hrs of the election but didn't want to waste time posting as things could move quickly. My favourite UK session now starts much later with the end of DST and this means I can only trade three evenings/week instead of five.

 

[minwa]

Review of Oct 16:

Failed to earn a few % [+0.6%].
Failed to post a minimum of 10 trades during the month [1].

Comment: Sorry about that. I have found the markets a little bit volatile on the larger time frames

Don't be sorry - you have demonstrated when not to swing trade. Anything more than intraday trades recently would've been a crazy ride.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Review of Oct 16:

Failed to earn a few % [+0.6%].
Failed to post a minimum of 10 trades during the month [1].

Comment: Sorry about that. I have found the markets a little bit volatile on the larger time frames and I didn't want to post too many trades done on 5M charts. I traded during the 24hrs of the election but didn't want to waste time posting as things could move quickly. My favourite UK session now starts much later with the end of DST and this means I can only trade three evenings/week instead of five.

Thanks for the update. Now we know that you decided not to trade higher timeframe swing trading this month because the conditions were unfavorable. That in itself is an important point.

As Minwa says, don't be sorry. This is your trade book, you set yourself the challenge, you decide the best way to trade it. We only hope to learn what we can along the way.

 

[grah33]

i must have missed this thread when i went looking for it some time ago. i'm also interested and grateful for anything i can learn. if you can succeed short term Peter, than you're obviously really good.

 

[peter2]

T02 : GBPUSD short. Daily trend is down. Selling the BO of the UK session is a low sized risk setup.



Targets: T1: 1.2251, T2: 1.2224 Limit buy order in at T2.
Trailing stop will be moved to BE when price is below T1.

 

[tech/a]

Like the setup

 

[peter2]

T02 exit: GBPUSD short. Closed at 1.2237. Result +41 pips, +1.5R

Price movement was slow (corrective), took the reasonable profit and going to bed.