P2 Trade Book

[peter2]

T05: US Crude Oil long was closed at 49.80 soon after the US open tested the $50 level and rejected it.
Result: +0.30/0.25, +1R or $182AUD.

 

[peter2]

EOM update: Four trades completed during March17 adding ~3.7% to our combined trading account.

It's a start and I plan to provide about 10 trades /month and to earn a few % each month. I've been looking at the 4H charts over the past two weeks and they could be a good source of opportunities. I don't want to fill this thread with very short term trades. The T05 trade last night showed me that I take too long to annote a chart and post comments. The trade was almost over as I posted it and it's not a good look.

The aim of this trade book is to provide some diversification to the trading business and boost the performance. You may have noticed that there's a combined equity curve included in the ASX Momentum Portfolio chart (ASX+P2).

Review of T04 and T05. I've marked the exits of both T04 and T05 as mistakes. T04 was a trade based on the daily chart with an initial target of 50. This target was hit.

Aggressive compounding strategy used in this thread.
Trades based on daily charts will risk 1% plus 10% of P2TB profits (limit 1.5%).
Currently $745+214 = $960 AUD
Trades based on 4H or 1H charts will risk 0.5% + 5% of P2TB profits (limit 1%). Currently $480 AUD
I can employ this aggressive style as the winning sequences are larger than the losing ones. The addition of profits stops after a DD of -2R (very effective brake) and resumes once the DD is overcome.

 

[grah33]

How about this one?

it's a 1h consolidation breakout aligned with a 4h trend. the red / green is the entry and stop loss. they occur often enough, and on the 15min timeframes, as do the mini reversals you targeted. i guess if the stops get hit too often it could be placed just outside the mini range's bottom, or halfway through the range ( it was meant to be at 20% ie just outside the breakout level)

https://app.box.com/s/agzn9vs5x7x4pnv7njrdk6xehoy2d0ve
usd-cad

 

[peter2]

Nice break-out. I didn't see your post in time. Hope you got something out of it.

 

[peter2]

I've decided to offset our ASX long only positions (momentum portfolio) with a short on the SP500.
If price falls below the pink chart line then there's plenty of room to fall.

T06: ESM7 short sold at 2382, iSl at 2390. Trade risk 50*8+C = $410USD ~ $550 AUD

 

[grah33]

also a contrarian range trade (seems to me). range trades would seem like an excellent way to go - lots of opportunities and probably easier to master than trend/swing trading...

 

[peter2]

T06: ESM7 short was closed overnight for a BE result.
Price did fall after the US open, but rebounded quickly. The Fed news produced a little volatility (esp gold) but was shrugged off by the SP500. This trade was closed as the Aussie selling didn't transfer to the US.

The original setup hasn't been violated yet and I'll be watching what happens in the US overnight. The daily momentum portfolio has gone from 135% invested to 80% and the "heat" has reduced.

 

[debtfree]

While the XAO is pulling back is there any action in this area of the Trading Plan Peter?

Cheers ... Debtfree

 

[grah33]

wouldn't mind also asking Peter, what kind of results do you expect after how many trades? you mentioned greater than 0.25R/Trade. say you had a batch of 20trades, do you ever get say neutral or a small negative in that?

i should also say Debtfree that this kind of trading IMO might be quite advanced. if you want to do this you may really need to take time off work. just my thought though ( i assume you're not yet profitable like me in anything).

 

[CanOz]

T06: ESM7 short was closed overnight for a BE result.
Price did fall after the US open, but rebounded quickly. The Fed news produced a little volatility (esp gold) but was shrugged off by the SP500. This trade was closed as the Aussie selling didn't transfer to the US.
View attachment 70958

The original setup hasn't been violated yet and I'll be watching what happens in the US overnight. The daily momentum portfolio has gone from 135% invested to 80% and the "heat" has reduced.

Hi Peter,

First of all, love your work.

Secondly, i'm curious as to why you would hedge your portfolio with ES futures and not SPI futures or a SPI CFD? Thanks in advance.

 

[peter2]

@CanOz On this occasion the SPI had already fallen hard, so I'd missed the low risk opportunity in our market. In contrast, the ES had not fallen at all. If our index had sold off in response to a change in global sentiment then the US would follow through and our market would fall even further when it opened next day. I was anticipating a fall in the US markets and that is why I traded the ES. As it turned out the US didn't fall, showing our insto traders are wimps.

Looking back at the charts (three weeks later) that was the start of the rout in the banks which was purely a local issue. I hadn't recognised then that the weakness in the index was entirely due to the selloff in the one sector (and that it was a good time to short any of the banks).

I apologise for not providing more content in this thread. It takes me too much time posting timely charts with explanations for intraday trades. In any trade the critical time is right after the entry. If price reverses soon after entry, then it's time to defend the initial risk. It's not time to be annotating a chart pic for a thread. If price goes in the right direction then it's possible to relax and let things work out. By then the post could be deemed to be too late and that I'm only posting the winners.

Content may increase as I'm considering posting trades based on 4hr charts in this thread. These would be mainly forex markets as they trade 24/5 (near enough).

@debtfree Sorry I hadn't seen your question until today. There probably was a great opportunity there some where.

@grah33 I've purposely not provided any expectancy numbers or W% estimates in this thread. I'm glad I haven't as the content has been very low. I will say that it's worth your time learning to trade these markets.

Let's just wait and see how this first batch of 20 works out.

 

[CanOz]

Thanks Peter.

 

[grah33]

thanks Peter. and yeah , 4h trades are a great idea too.

 

[debtfree]

i should also say Debtfree that this kind of trading IMO might be quite advanced. if you want to do this you may really need to take time off work. just my thought though ( i assume you're not yet profitable like me in anything).

Thanks grah33 for the advice and I'll take it onboard , meanwhile I'll continue to ask questions and see what I can learn.

Cheers ... Debtfree

 

[peter2]

I had to dig for this thread. This is the setup for the oil trade to profit from any potential overnight drop and to offset losses for our BPT equity trade. It doesn't look like it will trigger but oil can drop pretty quickly. This is not a recommendation, but preparation.

Sell 1x QMZ7 if 51.825 trades (limit 51.80), iSL at 52.45. Exposure 0.65
Dollar risk = 0.65 x 500 +10 = $335 USD ~ $435 AUD (0.5% acct)

 

[peter2]

The oil short didn't trigger, instead price spiked higher.
This should be good for our ASX momentum trade in BPT.

 

[VSntchr]

The oil short didn't trigger, instead price spiked higher.
This should be good for our ASX momentum trade in BPT.
View attachment 73203

But nonetheless proves that keeping an eye on one of the key drivers of price for BPT will have you better prepared to understand why/how it moves on Monday.

 

[peter2]

I didn't commit to this thread as the ASX Momentum thread was progressing smoothly. However it's time for a change. The ASX Momentum thread (Part 2) is ending and I've set myself a bold new challenge and this involves the trading I should have been doing in this thread.

I'm planning to expand the trading activities in a new thread (Part 3). For three years we've been improving our trading skills by trading ASX equities and a few equity cfds. Now it's time we applied those skills into new markets.

The current concept is to include three additional trading activities into our trading business.

1. Trading short term daily swings in ASX equities both long and short (equities, cfds)
2. Trading the 4H trend in forex currencies (fx pairs)
3. Trading daily swings in commodities and indices (futs, cfds)

Having all this in one thread will be interesting. It could be a mad-house but it will be fun.
I'm still thinking of a title for this new thread. It will include (Part 3).