End of the China bull?

[DeepState]

My father runs a business in HK with mainland clients so he knows a bit.

Re mechanisms - going rate was 3% to get your money out of china a few months ago (not sure if thats changed now). Mechanisms are varied - a main one is overinvoicing, but there is a huge list. See below in the middle for a list

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/29/2104532/china-vs-the-so-called-art-industry/

Thanks for this. Very informative. This type of activity will be too hard to clamp down upon in sufficient time and sufficient quality to avert a capital account problem. China is going to have to devalue further. Gong Hei Fa Cai.

 

[notting]

I quite liked the Chinese shadow banking system. It was the biggest true free market in the world. I actually think the Chinese authorities quite liked it too. They pretended they didn't but they perhaps felt they could cheat the world by having no disclosure due to it's 'officially unauthorized' existence.

However, this has all turned rather ugly as China's shadow banking system became the mechanism by which individuals could funnel massive amounts of Yuan overseas without being detected too soon.

http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/58228-china-fights-underground-bank-problem.html




China?
It's all bad.

 

[systematic]

China?
It's all bad.

...and Roxette; always cool.

 

[notting]

Quite frankly, it's nothing short of a miracle, simply stunning numbers -

People spent at least 312 billion yuan during the lunar New Year period, record spending came to 31% more than during last year's holidays, according to State controlled China UnionPay Co., which runs the national bank card network.

Travel transactions were up 42%!
"The tourism market expanded rapidly, driven by long-term consumption upgrades to the 'happiness economy' and good weather across China,"

Tourism revenue was up 16 percent from last year, the National Tourism Administration said.
Three times as many people as last year went on luxury cruises, travel website Ctrip.com said.

One reporter asked, 'How did you achieve such incredible numbers on the back of many workers not being paid their dues this year before the holidays and larg quantities of workers claiming they were not going back to the factories to live in rural areas!!!'
The Chinese finance minister said, "well, we had a meeting, decided what the best number would be to blow yours sox off and wrote it down we then released it to the world."

The reporter then held up this chart -



and the minister screamed you are an enemy of the Chinese Communist Party and shot him.

 

[notting]

In China, they keep threatening the factory workers that they will be replaced by robots if they do not work harder and for less, a funny Chinese guy posted this -



Made in China.

 

[satanoperca]

In China, they keep threatening the factory workers that they will be replaced by robots if they do not work harder and for less, a funny Chinese guy posted this -



Made in China.

Same in every country, robots will replace humans when they are more efficient, just part of progress.

Now what happened to the horse and cart.

 

[notting]

Same in every country, robots will replace humans when they are more efficient, just part of progress.

Now what happened to the horse and cart.

Profound

 

[notting]

Same in every country, robots will replace humans when they are more efficient, just part of progress.

Now what happened to the horse and cart.

The point is that in the free world, when there really are robots that can do jobs that people do, then the people are retired in as civil way as possible. But in this instance there no robots and certainly not ones that can are replace the almost pay less jobs. It's just a way of threatening the workers to abuse and enslave them further.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Profound

ROFL

 

[DeepState]

The point is that in the free world, when there really are robots that can do jobs that people do, then the people are retired in as civil way as possible. But in this instance there no robots and certainly not ones that can are replace the almost pay less jobs. It's just a way of threatening the workers to abuse and enslave them further.

I sometimes go riding with some guy who was a regional CEO of a major crop harvesting machinery manufacturer/distributor. One of his clients was in a 3rd world country and he was wondering why they never ordered any parts that would be normal wear and tear. This was despite the harvesting capacity being less than the fields on which crops were grown.

So over he went to meet the client he sold the equipment to a year ago. The two harvestor units sat in clear view of the workers in the fields. They were a threat that if any of them decided to cause trouble, it would be easy to replace much of the labour force for a time with machinery. These workers were subsistence level so they could not endure a lock-out. Just the threat was enough to create value for the farmer by buying these 'robots' which he never wanted to use. It kept the wages low and the workers compliant.

 

[qldfrog]

I sometimes go riding with some guy who was a regional CEO of a major crop harvesting machinery manufacturer/distributor. One of his clients was in a 3rd world country and he was wondering why they never ordered any parts that would be normal wear and tear. This was despite the harvesting capacity being less than the fields on which crops were grown.

So over he went to meet the client he sold the equipment to a year ago. The two harvestor units sat in clear view of the workers in the fields. They were a threat that if any of them decided to cause trouble, it would be easy to replace much of the labour force for a time with machinery. These workers were subsistence level so they could not endure a lock-out. Just the threat was enough to create value for the farmer by buying these 'robots' which he never wanted to use. It kept the wages low and the workers compliant.

Trusting you, DS it must be true and it is actually terrible, especially, as you pointed ,as these workers were subsistence level : the poorestr of the poors.
I still expect major drama when self driven vehicle will start: imagine: long haul truckies replaced by machines, it will not go smoothly

 

[Wysiwyg]

I still expect major drama when self driven vehicle will start: imagine: long haul truckies replaced by machines, it will not go smoothly

I can say in your lifetime this will not happen. Fixed plant automation and "controlled environment" mobile automation will see continued expansion. From wikipedia I chose these reasons that are obstacles.

• Liability placed on manufacturer of device and/or software driving the vehicle.
• Resistance by individuals to forfeit control of their cars.
• Implementation of legal framework and establishment of government regulations for self-driving cars.
• Loss of driving-related jobs. Resistance from professional drivers and unions who perceive job losses.
• Ethical problems in situations where an autonomous car's software is forced during an unavoidable crash to choose between multiple harmful courses of action.
• Current police and other pedestrian gestures and non-verbal cues are not adapted to autonomous driving.
• Software reliability.
• A car's computer could potentially be compromised, as could a communication system between cars by disrupting camera sensors, GPS jammers/spoofing.
• Susceptibility of the car's navigation system to different types of weather.
• Autonomous cars may require very high-quality specialised maps to operate properly. Where these maps may be out of date, they would need to be able to fall back to reasonable behaviors.
• Current road infrastructure may need changes for autonomous cars to function optimally.

 

[luutzu]

I can say in your lifetime this will not happen. Fixed plant automation and "controlled environment" mobile automation will see continued expansion. From wikipedia I chose these reasons that are obstacles.

• Liability placed on manufacturer of device and/or software driving the vehicle.
• Resistance by individuals to forfeit control of their cars.
• Implementation of legal framework and establishment of government regulations for self-driving cars.
• Loss of driving-related jobs. Resistance from professional drivers and unions who perceive job losses.
• Ethical problems in situations where an autonomous car's software is forced during an unavoidable crash to choose between multiple harmful courses of action.
• Current police and other pedestrian gestures and non-verbal cues are not adapted to autonomous driving.
• Software reliability.
• A car's computer could potentially be compromised, as could a communication system between cars by disrupting camera sensors, GPS jammers/spoofing.
• Susceptibility of the car's navigation system to different types of weather.
• Autonomous cars may require very high-quality specialised maps to operate properly. Where these maps may be out of date, they would need to be able to fall back to reasonable behaviors.
• Current road infrastructure may need changes for autonomous cars to function optimally.

Yea, automation and robotics would only be feasible in controlled environments - for our lifetime anyway.

So a factory, a mine site. But even then it'd only be doing physically heavy lifting or micro stuff. For the light weight and cheap manufacturing, there's already robots and they go for very very cheap - the poor buggers humans they now forced into menial jobs with hunching over conveyor belts all day.

I'm all for R&D and advancing technology and all that... but a self driving car? A bloody drone delivery service? Try curing cancer or renewable energy or bringing water and food to the world or something ya rich idiots.

Most people could do reverse parking. Most would find driving relaxing or at least not rich enough to afford a car that drives itself - most kinda do that with either a chauffer or a bus or train.

 

[Wysiwyg]

Try curing cancer or renewable energy or bringing water and food to the world or something ya rich idiots.

Yes there are many issues facing the planet with the presence of us (humans) that could have technological solutions. The technological revolution is upon us so buy into weight watchers businesses as everyone gets fatter from less physical activity.

 

[notting]

Retail sales surprisingly weakens

Retail sales, which had been a beacon of strength in China's economy, were up 10.2 per cent over the year, well below both the forecast 10.8 per cent and the December growth rate of 11.1 per cent.

Credit expansion also missed the target, although the Lunar New Year probably affected this.

On a positive note, there was evidence of a transition in the type of loans being taken out, with promising expansion in longer-term credit.[/B]

No they didn't.
Well they didn't surprise me, that's for sure.
What they put out over their retard monkey year was such obvious BS that anyone should have seen it.

Market is finally reacting in line with the reality, though along way to go!
Market makers may be starting to realize that the dictatorship is not going to do a big build stimulus because it's done that to death and even peddled it along as a zombie stuffed with Mao monopoly money for about 10 years after it was dead.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-13/china's-industrial-production-falls-short-for-start-of-the-year/7242938

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Try curing cancer or renewable energy or bringing water and food to the world or something ya rich idiots.

Points 1 & 2 are happening, dunno bout the 3rd....

Yes there are many issues facing the planet with the presence of us (humans) that could have technological solutions. The technological revolution is upon us so buy into weight watchers businesses as everyone gets fatter from less physical activity.

Not quite, they will have an injection for that soon? Or we could all eat Queen Garnet plums?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-02-14/antioxidant-rich-plum-to-fight-obesity/6094914

As for China, and the rest of the world generally, they are still in Central Bank dependent mode, hoping that even more rhetoric & 'stimulus' will be unleashed on a Central Bank rhetoric & 'stimulus' fatigued world? When will they realise that CB'ers are just glorified economists without any clue and almost always wrong!

Crash is imminent.....only blind faith in CB's and fiat is in the way.

 

[notting]

the most extreme step yet by policy makers to prevent speculative bets against the Chinese currency, after state-run banks repeatedly intervened to support the yuan and the government intensified a crackdown on capital outflows.

A Tobin tax would complicate plans by China to create an international reserve currency and could undermine the leadership's pledge to increase the role of market forces in the world's second-largest economy.

No freedom here folks. We will do what ever we want despite our pledges.

China shall continue to buy trillions of $$ worth of international infrastructure, property, farms, assets etc. With China's artificially now massively overvalued monopoly money, but of course China does not want any one else betting against their currency and China's dictatorship will not let it cost China anything to protect. Then the dictatorship will let it fall by stealth with onlty the Chinese dictators capable of making money out of that too.
What marvelous global citizens they are

 

[notting]

Small Chinese insurance company pulls 700 Billion Yaun out of thin air to bid for US hotel chain.
Founded in 2004 with capital of only 60 million US$ and a narrow focus on car insurance, Anbang has in the past year miraculously transformed itself into one of the biggest Chinese firms in the industry.
Anbang’s expansion is put down to connections of its chairman, Wu Xiaohui, who is married to the grand-daughter of Deng Xiaoping, China’s deceased but still revered leader!

As for Anbang itself: It’s a relatively minor Chinese insurance company, which has recently also branched into financial services. Bruce Einhorn writes in Businessweek that, “in a market dominated by big, state-owned insurers, Anbang until recently was an extremely minor player. At the end of 2013, its share of life-insurance premiums was 0.1 per cent.” It has recently experienced a lot of growth, but still only has 3.6 per cent market share in China. According to its English language website, Anbang has assets of 700 billion yuan (about $US114 billion).

The question that remains unanswered is how Anbang is going to pay for its new property. There’s no word in reports on the deal about financing. Back in July, Andrew Collier, managing director at Orient Capital Research floated the idea that loans from the Chinese shadow banking sector — where a lot of the financing for foreign deals is coming from — could cripple the international property markets if they started going bad.

Shadow banking is now code for, 'we just print the money and buy foreign assets. It's a new kind of expansion for free, so to speak.' We can't believe how stupid the world is.

Hence as Premier Li stated today, "It's impossible for China not to meet it's guidance." Understand?

 

[notting]

There are still no laws in China when it comes to the Chinese Communist Party doing what ever it wants.

I just hope the world wakes up soon to the fact that China is now using its now inflated currency to be quietly printing bucket loads of yuan amidst its shadow banking system and then funneling it though international banking system under the name of Chinese companies that have miraculously achieved huge sizes and are buying up international infrastructure, farming assets, property and land and and even pharmaceutical assets with what is nothing more than the equivalent of monopoly money.

It's hard for us to believe and here is another current example of Chinese utter lawlessness -

https://www.hongkongfp.com/2016/03/26/amnesty-condemns-detentions-linked-to-xi-letter/

 

[notting]

China props up it's over printed worthless currency whilst using it to buy international assets with what is in reality paper backed by nothing.

Heres the hedge against the cost of artificially holding up the currency by selling treasuries -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-30/great-leap-upward-behind-china-s-100-billion-shopping-spree