End of the China bull?

[notting]

The mainland equity market is or is headed where it should be, in the :flush:

The economy on the mainland is or is headed in the :flush:

No doubt, if the equity market was left to the natural process, it would auction towards some kind of fair valuation, far below the levels we're at now

I think the economy was bad before the casino turned sour

TBH, i don't think this economy can ever recover if the culture doesn't change. Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple. Its all around you here, at all levels in the organisation, from the security guard to the canteen manager, from the cleaner to the CEO. They're all corrupt...everything else is just like their glass buildings, a great facade!


There needs to be a business revolution here, like the quality revolution in Japan.

Great Post!
Truly informative from the ground.
A little more on how things are looking -

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2013-07-04/china-rongsheng-halts-trading-in-shares-after-report-on-job-cuts

Doesn't sound like slowing growth.
Sounds like contraction!

 

[shouldaindex]

One could argue that he's to blame.....

Mao money Mao problems.

 

[notting]

Mao money Mao problems.

What is funny about Mao money is -

When China established in 2004 offshore renminbi (CNH) market, which continued to climb especially once the bond market was established in 2007 and has been played against the mainland pegged (China manipulated) Yuan quite consistently, however, Yuan deposits continued to pick up with the launch of the trade settlement scheme in 2009–2010.
The crucial thing about the offshore Yuan (CNH) is that it doesn't fluctuate within a tight band like the onshore renminbi (CNY) and is free of China's control in that regard.

So as everyone with half a brain knows the Chinese would start to trash their currency as soon as they got world banks status and so started selling CNH. But because the Chinese do not want to look too conspicuous they are keen to try to make it look subtle so they have been lowering the peg slowly. This made for a great carrie trade where you could buy the offshore CNH and sell it for the pegged CNY . So the peg cost the Chinese more to keep it there.
Then the Chines got wise to what was going on so they decided to defend the currency by buying up CNH to raise and cover the gap in the carry trade. They did this with an aggressive announcement 'that those betting against the CNY would lose.' (Trying to sound like super Mario) Their defense lasted about 24 hours and the gap opened up again. So they have spent about 50 billion and gone no where.

Do it again!! Ha ha. - Nowhere to run - the Chinese have to buy their own bullsh!t.

And for some icing on the cake - Singapore, Taiwan, and London also since developed their own offshore Yuan markets.

 

[notting]

Happy Australia Day. Whilst our market it closed. China becomes a little more real!

Break Down -

 

[notting]

[video]http://media.scribblelive.com/2016/1/26/aa7c5976-5b20-428a-a865-1456cc2d4c6b.mp4[/video]

Perhaps now that 'vicious short sellers' and 'major steak holders' have been locked up and banned from selling China's Communist Party has decided do all the selling and get all the action for itself!

 

[daytradeprofit]

[video]http://media.scribblelive.com/2016/1/26/aa7c5976-5b20-428a-a865-1456cc2d4c6b.mp4[/video]

Perhaps now that 'vicious short sellers' and 'major steak holders' have been locked up and banned from selling China's Communist Party has decided do all the selling and get all the action for itself!

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
Shcomp Moving towards the support level in 2585-2612
This points or support points fracturing
Break there, send the index to the 2141-2210
On the other hand, support back it up
In any case, if it appears the previous crash, both in graph and in terms of turnover,
Stop and long-term support, averaging strip lies on a sophisticated level of 2141-2210

 

[notting]

China threatens Soros -

George Soros will not win an FX battle with the PBoC. At least that’s Beijing’s message to the billionaire, as conveyed via a characteristically hilarious “op-ed” in the People’s Daily entitled “Declaring war on China’s currency? Ha ha”

Yes, “ha, ha.” Although there’s nothing funny about the $1 trillion in capital that fled the country in 2015 on the heels of the PBoC’s bungled effort to “manage” a controlled devaluation of the yuan.

Although Soros didn’t specifically mention either the RMB or the HKD, he did indicate he is betting against Asian currencies in an interview with Bloomberg TV last week and that, apparently, was cause for Beijing to issue a stern warning.

“Soros’s war on the renminbi and the Hong Kong dollar cannot possibly succeed — about this there can be no doubt,” the People’s Daily says, after calling Soros “the financial crocodile,” and blaming the billionaire for “increasing volatility in already unstable financial markets.”

Perhaps Beijing knows something everyone else doesn’t, or perhaps the PBoC simply assumes that when Soros mentions “hard landing” and betting against Asian currencies in the same breath it probably means he’s short the yuan, but whatever the case, Chinese authorities have ramped up the rhetoric in the past several days.

“Reckless speculations and vicious shorting will face higher trading costs and possibly severe legal consequences,” Xinhua wrote over the weekend. “And just as proved in the yuan exchange rate case, the Chinese government has sufficient resources and policy tools to keep the overall economic situation under control and cope with any external challenges.”

The ironic thing about the latter passage there is that Soros actually echoed that sentiment in the interview China appears to be referencing. “China can manage it. It has resources and greater latitude in policies, with $3tn in reserves,” he said.

Of course China won't be able to arrest Soros and beat a confession out of him like Beijing is fond of doing to others suspected of launching "malicious" short attacks, but the brash commentary does indicate that Chinese authorities are becoming increasingly sensitive to suggestions that a steeper RMB devaluation is a foregone conclusion.
- From Zero Hedge

I'm sure Soros is happy about it. They can't arrest him.
All they will do is try to save face by delaying the inevitable a little longer at a huge price!

 

[CanOz]

China threatens Soros -



I'm sure Soros is happy about it. They can't arrest him.
All they will do is try to save face by delaying the inevitable a little longer at a huge price!

Soros wouldn't try and break the RMB like he did the pound, but if he believes the economy is slowing in China then he'll be short because he knows rates have to go lower, and so the rest of the Asian currencies. the PBOC is therfore betting against themselves if they take the attitude of beating Soros...Weird....sounds like the jouro's need a lesson in economics

 

[notting]

Soros wouldn't try and break the RMB like he did the pound, but if he believes the economy is slowing in China then he'll be short because he knows rates have to go lower, and so the rest of the Asian currencies. the PBOC is therfore betting against themselves if they take the attitude of beating Soros...Weird....sounds like the jouro's need a lesson in economics

Yeah the size is too big for Soros to go it alone.
I think the Chinese are trying to 'out shout' because Sorros's call to them was a call to arms. So what they are afraid of is losing face amidst contagion.
It's inevitable so they are being totally stupid. The Chinese are still trying to trick the world into thinking the Yaun devaluation is not inevitable. It's an easy trade and a massive whale floundering in the water.
The Chines are too wound up in their control history and face saving.
As we know you couldn't have a worse trading mentality!!

 

[notting]

The cost of faking it, so far -

 

[notting]

There are smart people in the world after all -

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html

Yep.

 

[satanoperca]

There are smart people in the world after all -

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html

Yep.

Get ready for even more cheaper crap from China to hit our shores.

As for the Australian property market, will be interesting to see how all those Chinese Investors will settle on their newly built apartments in the coming year.

This may just be the turning point.

 

[CanOz]

Get ready for even more cheaper crap from China to hit our shores.

As for the Australian property market, will be interesting to see how all those Chinese Investors will settle on their newly built apartments in the coming year.

This may just be the turning point.

They'll never sell, they'd likely try and sell the mainland stuff first as they won't want to repatriate at a huge loss on the currency exchanges. So that would mean a bigger correction for the mainland and Hong Kong markets I reckon...

 

[satanoperca]

They'll never sell, they'd likely try and sell the mainland stuff first as they won't want to repatriate at a huge loss on the currency exchanges. So that would mean a bigger correction for the mainland and Hong Kong markets I reckon...

I agree with your comment, however I was referring to those that have bought off the plan apartments and need to settle sometime over the next 12-18months. A drop of 30% in currency is going to make our property which is already expensive even more so.

On the other hand, all those that have bought in Australia, would make a nice trade selling up and moving the profits back to China.

Interesting times. Glad I made my contact for services with two Chinese companies in US$.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

There are smart people in the world after all -

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/03/kyle-bass-china-banks-months-away-from-danger-territory.html

Yep.

Don't really have to be all that smart to see what's going to happen here, or in any other fiat indebted economy, which is the global economy. He's just got the balls to go big with his convictions.

Video here -

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ma...sis-is-betting-against-chinas-yuan-2016-02-03

Thinking about straws and camels backs.......lot's of contagion going on now, big losses by fundies getting caught on the wrong side of currencies just as CB's announce their latest attempt to save the world from the problem they created. That will be hard to 'contain' (thanks Benny) when it percolates through the system, eventually.

History will show this period in China's history to one of the worlds greatest examples of a flawed fiat Ponzi scheme on a grand scale.

 

[satanoperca]

History will show this period in China's history to one of the worlds greatest examples of a flawed fiat Ponzi scheme on a grand scale.

I still don't understand what is with the China bashing, maybe it is a Aussie thing, tall poppies and all.

Hasn't China been able to lift a huge population out of abject poverty?
Have they not been able to education a huge population?
Have they not been able to become a super power is a very short period of time?

What has Australia achieved in the last 30 years?

Give credit where credit is due.

Sure they have made mistakes, but haven't we.

 

[notting]

Now before you read my reply.
Just imagine that you are a German back in say 1940 and that you have made these suggestions regarding the Nazi Regime, because you don't know any better. Then someone tells you what the Nazis were really doing. Would you still go into bat for them? -

I still don't understand what is with the China bashing, maybe it is a Aussie thing, tall poppies and all.

There is no China bashing, it's a very gentle thread considering the reality of the evil.

Hasn't China been able to lift a huge population out of abject poverty?

No. China uses massive, cruel slave labor camps to create wealth for communist party members and their cronies.

Have they not been able to education a huge population?

Absolutely not. There is no freedom of speech in China and all the media is state controlled. The population is utterly brainwashed with lies about Chinese history, the west and even the goings hidden prison camps, re education camps and genocide in countries China occupies.

Have they not been able to become a super power is a very short period of time?

China is quite powerful as were the Nazis for a while, China treats people and animals far worse than the Nazis and on far larger scale. They would invade and enslave any nation or people as soon as they feel they have overwhelming strength a nothing can stand in their way.
That's hardly a noble achievement you want to call noble.

What has Australia achieved in the last 30 years?

Irrelevant. Australians cans speak freely, vote for who leads them and determine their own destiny.

Sure they have made mistakes, but haven't we.

Every one makes mistakes. The communist Chinese have no conscience or regrets or value for human rights. It's part of their charter. That's not a mistake. It's a psychopathic monstrous regime like the world has never seen before.

Here is one of countless examples I could give you -



History remains some what misidentified, and confounded by the lack of moral integrity let alone simple humane sympathy lacking in the general German populous regarding the Jews. The German people were discovered to be kind of OK with it because Hitler was able to sell them the theory that the Jews were responsible for Germany's economic woes. Even those who heard rumours but did nothing, said nothing and still pledged allegiance to their charismatic leader - Hitler are condemned by history. There are documentaries show how when Germany was defeated the Allies forced many Germans to help clean out the Death camps as a way of forcing them to confront their moral cowardliness.

History condemns the German populous lack of moral fiber people even though they were in Germany and in danger if they stuck up for the Jews or even challenged regime.

But we are not in that situation, or even in China.

None of us are under threat right now.
China is worse and the scale is massive, far, far greater.

So what kind of people are we?
How will history paint us?

It seems more like the real problem no China questioning, apposing in any way let alone bashing.

I hope that answers your question.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

I still don't understand what is with the China bashing, maybe it is a Aussie thing, tall poppies and all.

Hasn't China been able to lift a huge population out of abject poverty?
Have they not been able to education a huge population?
Have they not been able to become a super power is a very short period of time?

What has Australia achieved in the last 30 years?

Give credit where credit is due.

Sure they have made mistakes, but haven't we.

Not bashing at all, it's just that they have taken the fiat debt model to the extreme to do all of that, so in essence they are still a poor country, the only thing that has changed is that they have expanded their money supply (backed up essentially by nothing) to the point of no return.

Watch the Kyle Bass interview to get a better idea of what's going on. He's not alone either - Stanley Druckenmiller and several other 'bashers' have the same view that what they are doing is a house of cards reflected in an avenue of mirrors. They literally don't have an organic supply/demand model - it's all top down directives from the elites.

“You can’t grow your banking system 1,000% in 10 years and not have a loss cycle. And your currency won’t stay strong when you go to rectify that balance,” he said. The hedge-fund manager said China’s banking system has ballooned to $34.5 trillion from 2005 to 2015. By comparison, China’s gross domestic product was $10.2 trillion, according to data from the World Bank.

There is no economic model that can take 1.5 billion (rural) people and give them a lifestyle like ours, sustainably. There won't be a transition to the fabled internal consumption model that wont rely on exports for growth as they are too poor to sustain that. They need to be complicit with the US to recycle US dollars around the trade network to keep the illusion of global growth going, all the while trying to rid themselves of something (dollars) that is losing value for them.

It's as much a story on the downfall of the US as it is China - mutually assured financial destruction?

 

[DeepState]

Looking for concrete responses pls:

What are the primary mechanisms which citizens in China are using to circumvent capital account rules?

With China increasingly attempting to preserve reserve assets, how likely is it that these newer initiatives relating to FFX restrictions etc. will work and help stem outflow? [NB. Head of SAFE has dismissed the idea of capital controls proposed by Kuroda in the last few hours.]

 

[fraa]

Looking for concrete responses pls:

What are the primary mechanisms which citizens in China are using to circumvent capital account rules?

With China increasingly attempting to preserve reserve assets, how likely is it that these newer initiatives relating to FFX restrictions etc. will work and help stem outflow? [NB. Head of SAFE has dismissed the idea of capital controls proposed by Kuroda in the last few hours.]

My father runs a business in HK with mainland clients so he knows a bit.

Re mechanisms - going rate was 3% to get your money out of china a few months ago (not sure if thats changed now). Mechanisms are varied - a main one is overinvoicing, but there is a huge list. See below in the middle for a list

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2015/01/29/2104532/china-vs-the-so-called-art-industry/