End of the China bull?

[Rainman]

... Its a big herd here, the current market volatility hasn't been taken into consideration either, when establishing the limits...that's the chatter on my 'Bejing trader and investors group' anyway...

The Chinese equity markets are very unsophisticated because they are dominated, not by institutional investors who on the whole tend to have some idea of the value of what they're buying, but by retail investors who basically treat the equity markets as huge casinos.

One report has found that 85% of equity trades in China are made by retail investors and that they trade more than any other investors on Earth: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/09/three-charts-explaining-chinas-strange-stock-market.html. More than two-thirds of these investors have not even graduated from high school.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The Chinese equity markets are very unsophisticated because they are dominated, not by institutional investors who on the whole tend to have some idea of the value of what they're buying, but by retail investors who basically treat the equity markets as huge casinos.

One report has found that 85% of equity trades in China are made by retail investors and that they trade more than any other investors on Earth: http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/09/three-charts-explaining-chinas-strange-stock-market.html. More than two-thirds of these investors have not even graduated from high school.

I'd love to trade a market like that (only without the interference). Mean reversion strategies would yield $$$$$$.

 

[satanoperca]

Remove all circuit breakers, it is a market, should be free of intervention within reason.

Allow the participants to understand risk, abet at the extremes and the masses will learn and the market will sort itself out. Cannot have 100% growth in a year and expect some sort of regression to fair value.

Overall, this is just part of a functioning system that is learning to walk, the Chinese will learn and get better.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Circuit breaker has just been dumped by the Party. (ABC news).

I guess at least they realize the importance of a free market, but the suddenness of such a move is stupid.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The Chinese stock market fell dramatically last week. That sounds significant but it actually isn’t. First, the Chinese stock market doesn’t serve the same function as Western markets. The equities that are sold there do not allow shareholders to control companies, nor are the underlying values of these companies correlated to the price of the stocks in any way. Second, the percentage of China’s wealth that flows through the markets is relatively small compared to the size of China’s economy. Market capitalization has little to do with value of Chinese companies.

The really significant news last week related to China’s foreign reserves. The People’s Bank of China revealed on Jan. 7 that the country ended 2015 with less foreign reserves than it started the year with. It was the first time reserves shrank over the course of a year since 1992. In effect, China saw its first decline in reserves since the Chinese boom really got under way. The surprising part of this development is not the contraction, since that’s been going on for at least a year, but the fact that it was announced.

This week in Politics - George Friedman


"If trends continue, the middle class in low and middle income countries will grow from 5% in 2005, to 25% in 2030. China alone will add one billion people to the middle class"
http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/MIC-Forum-Rise-of-the-Middle-Class-SM13.pdf

 

[notting]

"If trends continue, the middle class in low and middle income countries will grow from 5% in 2005, to 25% in 2030. China alone will add one billion people to the middle class"

What trend? Its all book cooking from China.

The The Chinese Dictators were stuck with the obvious problem of how to shift the ghost of it's Tiger economy that invested most of it's money over the last 10 to 15 years on over building and spruiking real estate in the communist controlled press - worthless real estate to 'the people' who had become a middle class of sorts on the back of huge slave labor factories pumping out crap to the world.

So how do you transform the economy from a Tiger economy to a consumer economy when 'the people', rightly so, horde all their savings because they cannot and do not trust the unelected dictators?

Well, get the comminust think tank to come up with another scam - 'feed their greed'. Let the people think they will make more money in the 'infallible Chinese stock market,' pump it so much in the communist press, the only press there is in China is propaganda, and let the stock market run parabolically so that all 'the people' want a peace of the action. The Communist media in all its forms was telling the people it was just the beginning when the SHANGHAI was in the 5000s!

'We mobilize the consumer and get all their saving out of their horde houses making our services sector look like it's totally taking off and we are instantly transformed!! into a consumer society.
Brilliant comrades!'

The stock market is not as easy to fudge as the property market, it moves around on what ever wind is blowing and is a product of free speech and freedom and can only function properly on the basis of democracy. That is because if you can't say whatever you want, debate and give opinion freely about stocks and dictators try to control it for ulterior motives - like to keep the dictator in power - then it's going to be a total mess - disaster!

Middle class my ass.

There are two classes The Dictatorship and 'The People'.

 

[CanOz]

What trend? Its all book cooking from China.

The The Chinese Dictators were stuck with the obvious problem of how to shift the ghost of it's Tiger economy that invested most of it's money over the last 10 to 15 years on over building and spruiking real estate in the communist controlled press - worthless real estate to 'the people' who had become a middle class of sorts on the back of huge slave labor factories pumping out crap to the world.

So how do you transform the economy from a Tiger economy to a consumer economy when 'the people', rightly so, horde all their savings because they cannot and do not trust the unelected dictators?

Well, get the comminust think tank to come up with another scam - 'feed their greed'. Let the people think they will make more money in the 'infallible Chinese stock market,' pump it so much in the communist press, the only press there is in China is propaganda, and let the stock market run parabolically so that all 'the people' want a peace of the action. The Communist media in all its forms was telling the people it was just the beginning when the SHANGHAI was in the 5000s!

'We mobilize the consumer and get all their saving out of their horde houses making our services sector look like it's totally taking off and we are instantly transformed!! into a consumer society.
Brilliant comrades!'

The stock market is not as easy to fudge as the property market, it moves around on what ever wind is blowing and is a product of free speech and freedom and can only function properly on the basis of democracy. That is because if you can't say whatever you want, debate and give opinion freely about stocks and dictators try to control it for ulterior motives - like to keep the dictator in power - then it's going to be a total mess - disaster!

Middle class my ass.

There are two classes The Dictatorship and 'The People'.

What a ridiculous rant....

We get it that you don't like these guys...

Your ranting might be preventing people from having some form of DISCUSSION on the subject.

Honestly, the negativity on the forum gives me the sh*ts...you haven't even lived in China. How is it that i manage to stay positive living in this cold damp sh*thole with the 'party' until i read ASF every day!

 

[notting]

Don't join the Falun Gong whilst your there.

What you need to do is provide an argument that proves what I say is incorrect. What I am saying is exactly how it is with their economic activities.

Ranting does nothing of substance which is what you just did.

Here is some substance about harsher end of The Chinese Communist Parties ways -

Nobel Peace Prize nominee, lawyer and politician David Kilgour, have spent years investigating organ trafficking in China.

They believe some of the organs come from members of the Falun Gong movement – a quasi-religious group with millions of followers, which is banned by the Chinese Government.

“Falun Gong, before it was repressed was very popular in China,” David Matas says. “It’s estimated, according to government of China statistics, between 70 and 100 million people, which was then more than the membership of the Communist Party of China.”

Investigators claim thousands of them have been detained by authorities.

“I testify to the atrocious crime that the hospital committed in removing livers and corneas from living Falun Gong members,” says former worker Annie.

“Some of them were still alive when they were secretly burnt in the incinerator that was in the boiler room.”

Don't say free Tibet -


Don't say free East Turkistan -



The Chinese make the Nazis look like kittens. You want me to say nothing about their economy even??! Hail Hitler then?

 

[CanOz]

What you need to do is provide an argument that proves what I say is incorrect. What I am saying is exactly how it is with their economic activities.

Start your own thread then, instead of clogging this one up with your off topic rants. I'm not saying you always post stuff that is useless, but why does it have to be in a thread that should be discussing the end of the boom in China? Its not like its a one off either, you actually go out of your way every day or two to reply to a post about China, WHY???

 

[notting]

Why?
The reason is that what I say still seems surprising and unrealistic to people. When it sincerely isn't and is an accurate picture of what China is and does.
If people had listened to me two years ago about the impending real estate problems they probably would have gotten out of our mining stocks sooner and perhaps never been so bullish.
If they had listened to me seven years ago crazy things like BHPs attempted take over of RIO for $139 per share would not have been seen as a good move! etc.
In general if we open our doors naively to the Chinese and they get into our politics, just like we have been sucked into their world bank (Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)) which is now looking dubious given it was created whilst they held the yuan up but are now a letting it drop etc etc. We could be the Tibetans, East Turkistans, Falun Gong members.

This is all relevant to the End of The China Bull. It is the very substance of the China Bull.
Sorry if it makes it hard for you.

 

[CanOz]

Why?
The reason is that what I say still seems surprising and unrealistic to people. When it sincerely isn't and is an accurate picture of what China is and does.
If people had listened to me two years ago about the impending real estate problems they probably would have gotten out of our mining stocks sooner and perhaps never been so bullish.
If they had listened to me seven years ago crazy things like BHPs attempted take over of RIO for $139 per share would not have been seen as a good move! etc.
In general if we open our doors naively to the Chinese and they get into our politics, just like we have been sucked into their bank which is now looking dubious given it was created whilst they held the yen up now a letting it drop etc etc.
This is all relevant to the End of The China Bull. It is the very substance of the China Bull.
Sorry if it makes it hard for you.

I actually totally agree with you on most of what you say, but i'd rather see it in a thread for that, call it corruption or something. I may actually have more real life stories to contribute after i leave. I just think there is allot of good discussion about the economy that were missing because it keeps getting de-railed onto how bad the CPC is.

Anyway, whatever...I spend too much time on forums anyway

 

[CanOz]

Errr, back to End of the Bull....

09:07(CN) China banks' non-performing loans (NPLs) said to have more doubled in 2015 vs 2014 - financial press (related USD/CNY 3988.HK 1398.HK 939.HK PGJ FXI IXG CNY/USD CYB 601988.CN 349.HK 601398.CN 601939.CN SX7PEX.DE) - Source TradeTheNews.com

 

[Gringotts Bank]

So far, removing circuit breakers hasn't met with disaster. That's gotta be a good thing.

 

[notting]

So far, removing circuit breakers hasn't met with disaster. That's gotta be a good thing.

They really need to get out of the way now. It looked like they sat on their hands yesterday. But are in defending the SHANGHAI - 3000 or August low today.
It will have to fall below the August lows without the look of any interference so people can be confident that it has found a genuine price discovery bottom.
That will make people think it is now 'real', problem is, what is the reality?!

 

[satanoperca]

So far, removing circuit breakers hasn't met with disaster. That's gotta be a good thing.

Who could of guessed, when you remove govnuts intervention in a market, the market becomes functional and working again.

 

[Rainman]

Anyone who thinks that the recent ructions affecting the Chinese stock market are representative of the performance of the Chinese economy, let alone of the future direction of that economy, clearly does not know China or its economy.

 

[CanOz]

The mainland equity market is or is headed where it should be, in the :flush:

The economy on the mainland is or is headed in the :flush:

No doubt, if the equity market was left to the natural process, it would auction towards some kind of fair valuation, far below the levels we're at now

I think the economy was bad before the casino turned sour

TBH, i don't think this economy can ever recover if the culture doesn't change. Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple. Its all around you here, at all levels in the organisation, from the security guard to the canteen manager, from the cleaner to the CEO. They're all corrupt...everything else is just like their glass buildings, a great facade!


There needs to be a business revolution here, like the quality revolution in Japan.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple.

And it's these business owners who are buying up all the real estate (cash of course) and destroying entire suburbs with their border-to-border French bloody Provincial mansions.

If we had Columbian drug lords doing the same, .... ahhh, who am I kidding! Complaining about ill gotten gains is a waste of time. Government is happy because they get to fool the public that they hold ever-appreciating assets (economy must be good, eh?). Councils love it because they get to charge ever-increasing rates. The plebs love it because they have no idea what's going on. They think Chinese property buyers are rich because they are smart, or they work hard.

 

[Rainman]

The mainland equity market is or is headed where it should be, in the :flush:

The economy on the mainland is or is headed in the :flush:

No doubt, if the equity market was left to the natural process, it would auction towards some kind of fair valuation, far below the levels we're at now

I think the economy was bad before the casino turned sour

TBH, i don't think this economy can ever recover if the culture doesn't change. Business is not conducted here to improve the bottom line of the companies, only the owner! They get wealthy by building stuff and getting kickbacks, its that simple. Its all around you here, at all levels in the organisation, from the security guard to the canteen manager, from the cleaner to the CEO. They're all corrupt...everything else is just like their glass buildings, a great facade!


There needs to be a business revolution here, like the quality revolution in Japan.

If China got through Mao and the Cultural Revolution, it will get through this.

 

[CanOz]

If China got through Mao and the Cultural Revolution, it will get through this.

One could argue that he's to blame.....