End of the China bull?

notting · 7 December 2015

Rembember the mantra of the last 12 months?
"Oh yes even if China only grows at 6% 5% or or even 4% given all the growth it has done and how big it is that is still going to be very good for Australia and it's mining etc.

China's steel production will not recover next year, according to its official government forecaster, which believes demand for iron ore will decline by 4.2 per cent.

The report released today by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts steel production will fall 3.1 per cent to 781 million tonnes in 2016, as economic growth continues to moderate.

The forecast provides another round of bad news for Australian iron ore miners, which are already battling record low prices of around $US40 a tonne.

China's steel industry reached a long predicted turning point in 2015, as the economy slowed and over-supply in the property sector crimped demand for everything from machinery, to home appliances and cars.

This will see China's steel consumption post its first annual decline since 1995, falling 4.8 per cent this year, according to the government forecaster.

The declines are set to continue next year with consumption falling by 3 per cent to 648 million tonnes.

The declines this year have been faster than the institute predicted. Monday's downgrade to 2015 production was the third this year.

It believes iron ore demand, which fell 0.4 per cent in 2015, will decline by 4.2 per cent in 2016 to around 1.07 billion tonnes.

It sees steel for construction, machinery and home appliances, falling again in 2016, while demand from vehicle makers will rise 1 per cent.

The China Academy of Social Sciences believes there are nearly 18 million unsold apartments across the country.

This apartment glut, particularly in regional cities, has removed the key driver of demand for steel and few believe it is likely to recover in the near term.

"Over-investment and excessive inventory [in the property market] will still be the main problems in 2016," said the report.

"Hello, hello I can't here you."

What if it goes the opposite way? Which according to all the rubbish over the last 5 years from even the most conservative and best commentators and pro's was simply impossible. What if, indeed :flush:

notting · 8 December 2015

A slowdown in coal consumption in China has led to global carbon emissions growing by only 0.6 per cent in 2014, breaking with the fast emissions growth of 2-3 per cent per year since the early 2000s, according to a report by the Global Carbon Project.

Even more unexpectedly, emissions are projected to decline slightly in 2015, despite global economic growth tipped to come in at above 3 per cent.

This is all the more surprising, as in the past a fall in global emissions was always associated with a recession,

Reading between the lines, what is seen?!!!!

notting · 14 December 2015

It seems that Xi has consolidated power and now structural changes in China are being accelerated.

Hence the plummeting of oil and resources.

The Chinese have already started manipulating the Yuan lower as soon as it got Reserve-Currency Status in the World Bank - unbelievably brazen manipulation lower - so obvious, with no one saying anything! That will continue.

These shifts will not be painless, however, the development of a genuine demand/supply economy is obviously utterly necessary, for the Chinese economy as well as the need to address the environmental catastrophes being dealt with due to the vicious negligence by short sighted profiteering communist party dictators.

China's polluted air kills 4,400 a day. To put that in perspective -
The Chinese dictatorships neglect of environment and the Chinese people is equivalent to the Chinese Communist Party dropping 12 Hiroshima Nuclear bombs on the Chinese people every year!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/14/r-in-china-causes-16m-deaths-a-year-study.html

Not only that they have contaminated and are contaminating rivers which are the source of water for almost all of Asia. (That's nearly half the worlds water)

The Chinese have done this in unison with their brutal invasion and occupation of Tibet which is the highest point of Asia where all those rivers originate.

http://www.circleofblue.org/waternews/2008/world/china-tibet-and-the-strategic-power-of-water/

Now let me hear an Ausi politician praise them again for raising so many people out of poverty and offer our real estate up to them.

Uncle Festivus · 17 December 2015

China moving quickly to Xi dictatorship and many crackdowns on freedom, opposition (sorry, 'corrupt market manipulators') & free speech, at least the Chinese version of.

Must be a surplus at the organ donor banks by now with all those dissenters being 'unavailable'?

drsmith · 7 January 2016

Short session in Shanghai today.

Down 7% in half an hour and the closing bell rung.

shouldaindex · 7 January 2016

Can someone give me a summary of why a 0.3% Yuan devaluation is terrible news?

notting · 7 January 2016

shouldaindex said:
Can someone give me a summary of why a 0.3% Yuan devaluation is terrible news?

Well China lies and cheats. The Chinese are not playing according to the agreements that everyone else has to play by like their currency is not free floating it's manipulated.
Foolishly Australia has invested in their Yaun based bank against US advice as did many others thinking they would get some favour from doing so. No they are all now losing money.

Further the Chinese started pushing the Yaun lower as soon as they got Reserve-Currency Status in the World Bank which they got after a period of artificially stabilising the Yaun agains the US $ for a period long enough to make it look like they were playing according to the rules.

So the Chinese are once again exporting deflation, setting H bombs off in North Korea, who just do what the Chinese tell them to, whilst the Chinese pretend to be agains it and not the ones ordering it, so they can use so called North Korea to distract from what the Chinese are really doing. All coinciding at a time when the selling of shares was going to be allowed to come back on line in the Chinese markets. so they could blame soveregn unrest for market volatility.

Exporting deflation trips up all the idiots who thought they were going to make a fortune out of the rubbish notion of a rising middle class in China. So global markets get effected, China steels all the technology and international money invested in it and internationals get screwed and the world is still too stupid to realise it for the most part.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/06/china-guides-yuan-sharply-lower-jolts-markets-offshore-currency-plunges.html

shouldaindex · 7 January 2016

I knew I still wouldn't understand the answer!

CanOz · 7 January 2016

Looks like there going to be a little less aggressive....maybe they've realised they spooked the market....

Thats what i can't figure out, they spend billions trying to prop up the market on Tuesday, only to see it all unwound by Thursday, they must hold allot of overvalued stock

16:38(CN) CFETS: Mechanism to fix Yuan to dollar midpoint has achieved anticipated result; Yuan midpoint will be more market based in the future- Will keep Yuan basically stable against basket of currencies (related USD/CNY FXI CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Modest · 8 January 2016

Tomorrow will be interesting

China CSRC reportedly suspends new circuitbreaker rules - financial press - Source TradeTheNews.com

CanOz · 8 January 2016

Modest said:
Tomorrow will be interesting

the markets a little worried that these guys have NFI!

notting · 8 January 2016

It was obvious what the dictatorship was going to do once they made the sensible decision to can the circuit breaker. They would, instead, simply buy shares as soon as things looked realistically catastrophic.
The hard landing is to be made to look like a looooooooooooooooooooooooooong slow landing.
Lets face it dictatorships have no innovation, no motivation and nobody winning other than the party and their comrades in inhumane crime.

Gringotts Bank · 8 January 2016

Can the Regime maintain strict control over every citizen within its borders and simultaneously allow a truly free market? The two things are antithetical. "Truly free" - probably considered obscene words.

Plastic markets..... :bonk::error:

CanOz · 8 January 2016

Its gets better, apparently this guy didn't do a good enough job....maybe he'll jump instead..

10:55(CN) China CSRC chief Xiao Gang expected to announce plans to resign over the weekend - Chinese press (related USD/CNY PGJ FXI EUR/CNY RUB/CNY JPY/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Wysiwyg · 8 January 2016

Extract from second post back in 2008 thread beginning.

tradingforwealth said:
Anyway, BHP has in most of their announcements that they expect this commodity boom to last for 10-20years more.

"Expect" is a tough word. It leads to much disappointment. "Could" is a less harsh word with a modicum of caution entwined.

Gringotts Bank · 8 January 2016

What they're trying to do is prevent normal human emotion - fear of loss. It is incredibly unsophisticated.

The end result of preventing normal human emotion is amplification of that same emotion. So we can reliably expect fear to get out of control. Won't happen immediately, but will build every time they halt falling markets.

Wysiwyg · 8 January 2016

Gringotts Bank said:
What they're trying to do is prevent normal human emotion - fear of loss. It is incredibly unsophisticated.

The end result of preventing normal human emotion is amplification of that same emotion. So we can reliably expect fear to get out of control. Won't happen immediately, but will build every time they halt falling markets.

Maybe buyers are not keen to buy because when the trading halt is lifted the sell panic buttons are hit again. I agree the market sell downs should not be interfered with.

CanOz · 8 January 2016

Wysiwyg said:
Maybe buyers are not keen to buy because when the trading halt is lifted the sell panic buttons are hit again. I agree the market sell downs should not be interfered with.

Circuit breakers are a good idea on a mature market, it allows the herd to calm down. The thing is here, the view is 'we need to sell before the breakers kick in'...There are hedge funds that have hit their loss limits as well and they've got calls for withdrawals...Every-time there has been an opportunity, they've been selling.

Its a big herd here, the current market volatility hasn't been taken into consideration either, when establishing the limits...that's the chatter on my 'Bejing trader and investors group' anyway...

If y'all have any questions, let me know, i can post the question and thier answers here. Most of them are fund managers, locals. All the foreigners have pulled stumps

CanOz · 8 January 2016

i guess this was expected....

2:25(CN) China authorities said to have intervened to help support the stock market in today's session - financial press (related PGJ FXI EEM) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Gringotts Bank · 8 January 2016

CanOz said:
Circuit breakers are a good idea on a mature market, it allows the herd to calm down. The thing is here, the view is 'we need to sell before the breakers kick in'...There are hedge funds that have hit their loss limits as well and they've got calls for withdrawals...Every-time there has been an opportunity, they've been selling.

Its a big herd here, the current market volatility hasn't been taken into consideration either, when establishing the limits...that's the chatter on my 'Bejing trader and investors group' anyway...

If y'all have any questions, let me know, i can post the question and thier answers here. Most of them are fund managers, locals. All the foreigners have pulled stumps

Yes, I'm very keen to understand the local sentiment.

Here's my proposed solution. Would like yours and your colleagues' feedback:

Designate a date 2 years hence, letting all market participants know that after this date, there will be no interventions should the market fall sharply. The dynamics and perosnality of the markets would then change gradually over the next 2 years in anticipation of this change. Markets should become much more organic and real. People will start to undertsand markets are emergent phenomena, created by mass psychology. As such, markets need total freedom to do what they do, without interference (and honest market participants who follow rules).

And if US markets could do the same, that would be great. Send Trumpy an email. I reckon he'd be into free markets!

End of the China bull?

notting

notting

notting

Uncle Festivus

drsmith

shouldaindex

notting

shouldaindex

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Modest

It's in the chart

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

notting

Gringotts Bank

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

Gringotts Bank

Wysiwyg

Everyone wants money

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

CanOz

Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

Gringotts Bank

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