End of the China bull?

[waterbottle]

Looks like there are more falls to come in China, as the SSE falls 8% !!!!

A comment from a social media website about the 8% drop:

It's now 8%. We might see the circuit breaker today...

My office is completely silent. People are walking around with worried looks on their faces, both men and women alike. Everyone is choking.

Meanwhile, the Chinese pension funds (administered by local governments) can now invest 30% of net assets in the share markets.


As for what retail portfolios might be doing, here are some graphs I made a while back:




It won't be long now until those who invested at the start of the year are making a loss...

 

[waterbottle]

Some more select posts that illustrate the thinking going on at the moment. Translations were done by another poster on that website.

Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3995290151

现在开始V型反弹了，大家赶紧抄底啊！！！！！！！！！

A rebound is coming! Everybody buy now!!!!!!

国家队护盘，直线拉升！！

National team protecting the market, staireway to heaven!!

不服上午收盘看，下午，明天重新收回失地！！！

Anyone who disagree come back to me at market close this morning, afternoon, tomorrow, we will regain all our lost grounds!!!

俺。。。俺。。。没喝醉

Me...Me...Me not drunk

相信我，一定会大反弹的，现在不进什么时候进？

Believe in me! Rebound will happen! When are you going to buy if not now?

无论怎样我都不想再投钱

I don't want to pour money in anymore

这就是你的不对的，牛市的根基还在，要对市场充满信心

You are wrong. The basis for a bull market is still here. Be full of confidence in the market

一大早爬起来看就跌停了,可别是金融危机的预兆，醉死了，还好投入的都是压岁钱。

I woke up and see (the market) drop to its lower limit, this is a sign for a financial crisis. Lucky I didn't throw my annual savings in it.

没关系的，还会涨回来的，迟早5000点以上

No problem, the rebound will come. 5000 is coming.

都金融危机了还想上5000

We're facing a financial crisis and you're dreaming of 5000

哪有金融危机啊亲？ 中国的经济已经把美国打的不要不要的了，这次就算是金融危机，中国也是唯一的胜利者！

What are you talking about? Chinese economy is beating up America to hell and beyond. If financial crisis come China will be the only victor!

那么屌？

wtf?

是的，你看，美国的经济已经完蛋了，日本不敢和中国玩了，欧洲拼命的想和中国合作，就说明中国的经济是世界最好的！

Yes, look, American economy is over. Japan dares not play with China. Europe is signing deals China. This shows China economy is the best in the world!

像你这种傻逼真是太多

There are too many ****ing retards like you

Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3995170581

股市还让不让人活了一开盘就跌到3300多 Is the stock market trying to kill us with the drop opening at 3300

养老金现在入市没什么用了，超跌了。没信心 Pension fund entering the market is useless now that it's dropping so much. No confidence.

养老金入市肯定是找低位入，管理基金那团队肯定不傻。人家目的是帮养老金赚钱，又不是帮你赚钱。 Pension fund is going to wait for a low price to buy, the fund management team are not idiots, their aim is to help make money for the fund, not for you. (upads's comment: the fund manager is aiming to make money for himself and obey the party's order)

国家队都已死于天津大爆炸。 National team is dead from the Tianjin explosion.

这次可能跌到二千点，毕竟全球各国股市都比我国便宜，不可能会花大钱来钱市吧！ We may see a drop to 2000, all the other markets are cheaper than our market, there's no way they will spend big money on us.

3900点进的不抛，要不就把我的跌光。 I entered the market at 3900. I will not sell until it drops to zero.

无药可救了 Beyond saving.

Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3993980910

养老金入市我有点怕，说难听点目前不是最佳的进入时机，现在进来买股票，就要做对冲减少损失，大盘做起来还好，做不起来，养老金为了不亏钱，马上就是空军主力，散户跟进来，没办法做对冲减少损失，有可能套死！ 最关键是早几天通过的，现在才公布，为什么呢？大家想想新闻谁控制的？如果早公布，大盘至于这么无下限？那么现在公布合适吗？公布了就代表马上入市吗？那么多钱不可能全买股票，对冲工具肯定要买，那么行情不顺利的时候，主力是谁不言而喻！说白了养老金是另一只郭嘉队，更加自由的郭嘉队！

Bla bla bla pension fund is another national team.

Bla bla bla they are announcing the pension fund entering the market too late. If they mentioned it earlier the market wouldn't drop. (upads's comment: actually, the pension fund entering the market was announced back in 29th June, you dimwit)

看下周能不能在养老金的带领下，走出一波荡气回肠的5连阳，迎接阅兵向老兵致敬吧！

Let's see if we can get out of the bear market and salute our army on the parade under the leadership of the pension fund!

子丹哥，一头雾水！这不是说了n多次！说是批复！现在又拿出来说！上上次说是准备，再上次又说年内！

Bro shut the **** up you dont know what you are saying you kept saying the market is going to go up last time last time and last last time!

告诉你我要来救你了，你在撑一下

Hang on you are going to be saved.

我在十八层地狱！上次拉到第九层又跌回十八层还重伤！

I am now at the deepest layer of hell! You pulled me half way up to earth and dropped me back down! Now I am in hell and heavily injured!

 

[>Apocalypto<]

2000 looks like a nice resting area.

like all things what comes up comes down... shows how small memories are considering what happened in 08

once it settles there will be one hell of a range till the pain leaves the minds.

 

[shouldaindex]

Sounds like a HotCopper thread, guess the human brain isn't that different around the world.

 

[notting]

Hopefully the dictators have woken up to the fact that they should just let it rip.
Even if it goes to 1000 in three days, which it won't, it will then become old news and the rest of the world will start to think like it was 3 weeks ago and things will look fine.
China is China, they will say, and there is plenty of places to get cheap labor now so who cares?

 

[wayneL]

Sounds like a HotCopper thread, guess the human brain isn't that different around the world.

Exactly what I was thinking lol

 

[notting]

"The problem they have now is that they've spent as much as $US400bn supporting the currency and stock market and they are now worse off than when they started," said one person with close ties to the PBoC. "I think they got overconfident and underestimated how strong the global reaction would be to the devaluation."

When the currency is no longer affordable to support, what then? Tick Tock Tick Tock

 

[waterbottle]

Original post: http://tieba.baidu.com/p/3996492611

无论咱怎么玩，都免不了上当，早知道今天找个理由不看盘了，他奶奶的明知道有坑，我还往里面跳

No matter how I play the market I get ****ed. I'm not watching the market today. ****ing jumped into a trap despite seeing it.

2500见了，我已经做好了下次牛市的准备。明儿卸载软件回归现实生活

I am seeing 2500. I am getting ready for the next bull market---uninstalling my (stock trade) software to get back to life.

没事，今天只要不是买前面大炒股不要紧，尤其大幅创了新低的更没事

No problem, as long as you didn't buy high you are fine, and those stocks if you bought at new low will do just fine.

我不是韭菜，我不是香肠，我是一个股民，我有尊严，对于你们大户的行为，我要求关闭中国股市！

I'm not a vegetable, I'm no a sausage. I am a investor, I have my pride. You institutional investors are evil, I request China to shut down its market!

中国特色。政府人造牛市，违背规律，一旦崩塌，无可挽救。

Chinese characteristics. Govt. man made bull market, going against the law. Once it falls, there's no catching it.

在加上说话不如放屁的郭嘉

And to add the country who speaks like fart. (郭嘉) is the same sound as (國家) to avoid censors.

看郭嘉到底能怎么玩！

Let's see how the country/govt is going to play it out!

明天应该不会像今天这样了吧

The same shouldn't happen on Tuesday...

如果明天还这样，马上就让亲戚的养老金再次入市，我跟大盘玩到底

If it drops more tomorrow, I will have my relative's own pension enter the market. I will fight to the last breath!

刚刚看阅兵排练，看着看着莫名的热泪盈眶，无论股市如何，我终究恨不起来，对国家只有爱

就那么点钱，如果国家想要，拿去先用，7年以后我还是一条好汉

I just saw the parade rehearsal, I shed a tear of manhood. No matter how the stock market falls, I won't hate the country. I only have love for my country

It's just a few bucks. If the country wants it, they can take my money. In 7 years I will be back. (upads: wtf?)

SSE currently down 5.7% according to google finance

 

[shouldaindex]

The Chinese economy and stock market have very little correlation historically, especially so in the past year.

I tend to think when an economic meltdown occurs, it's obvious, you don't need to go looking for it. Right now we're still looking for it, so still awaiting.

 

[notting]

The Chinese economy and stock market have very little correlation historically, especially so in the past year.
I tend to think when an economic meltdown occurs, it's obvious, you don't need to go looking for it. Right now we're still looking for it, so still awaiting.

Here's looking at you kid

The hitch -
Problem is you can't fund public projects, in bulk, by pawning them off onto 'the people, as the dictatorship did with all the property con.' Which still accumulated massive debts and the extensiveness of it was largely motivated by graft, not genuine vision. (Air pollution is killing an average of 4,000 people a day in China) for 'China'.

Imports exports down over 8%
Property market off by 20% from highs.
Market Crashing, stimulus not working, Currency war pending, ports carrying 17% of trade exploding, North Korea (China) shooting.
PMI out and out obvious lie.

They tried to pull the same (property)con on the people by promoting the stock market in the propaganda press to make it look like the country was moving to consumerism from a Tiger. Not so easy as we see.

Don't need to look too hard!

 

[notting]

They tried to pull the same (property)con on the people by promoting the stock market in the propaganda press to make it look like the country was moving to consumerism from a Tiger.

Still trying -

 

[skyQuake]

Still trying -

View attachment 64009

China CSI300 futs Limit down now...

 

[notting]

8.4% Smashing on the Shang Dang Fang Pang Wang Pow Kill Bang.
This is good.
Get it over and done with. Everyone will start saying - SHANGHAI is just a gaming floor for property developers and not much to do with China economy and things will feel fine again.
US futures were over around 2.4% up. Second thinking themselves, now dropped back to 1.5% ish.

 

[notting]

What's next?
3.5 year jail term for spreading rumors - AKA 'talking about the stock market?'
1000 Yuan reward for dobbing in a friend.

 

[db94]

Classic path of an asset bubble. Wait for reversion to long term mean and reduction in volatility

 

[notting]

Haitong is one of the biggest state-owned brokerages in China, as powerful as Goldman or Morgan Stanley to the puppets, I mean people, I mean Chinese.
"now under official investigation" by Chinese securities regulator!
I like Xi's vacuum cleaner. I hope he gets em all, eventually.

 

[notting]

Chinese Police declare they are going to crack down on "underground banks", blamed for "hot money" inflow to grow speculations in stock market
led by a vice minister No.2 it will be a nationwide crack down more to stabilize the market.
"Underground banks" have helped capital escape from our stock market so we must crack down!

This is such rubbish. What caused the hot money was the communist propaganda in the media telling all the citizens that when markets were peaking that it was 'just the beginning.'

In my opinion The shadow banking system in China has always been the turbo in the engine and has been the worlds biggest and ultimately free market - Totally raw - unregulated and just runs a like a wild animal, which actually does quiet well in the wild!

 

[waterbottle]

CITIC Securities, "Finance" magazine, China Securities Regulatory Commission were asked to assist in the investigation the public security organs
August 25, 2015 22:08:39 Source: Xinhua

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Xinhua Beijing August 25 (Reporter Zou Wei), according to Reporters learned from relevant departments: CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. Xu 8 people suspected of illegal trading activities in securities, "Finance" magazine Wang, together with others suspected of fabricating and manufacturing dissemination of securities, futures false information, China Securities Regulatory Commission staff separations Ouyang Liu and a suspected insider trading, falsification of official documents stamp, said staff have been asked to assist in the investigation public security organs.

https://translate.google.com/transl...015-08/25/c_1116370857.htm&edit-text=&act=url

 

[notting]

If you don't jump out the window.

It's worse -



This is China's Lloyd Blankfein.
Guess he was riding the trends too well. You know, doing his job!

 

[waterbottle]

An illustrative graph that shows just how much more the CNY needs to be devalued compared to China's trading partners



More devluations to come? Or maybe the JPY and EUR will begin to appreciate?