End of the China bull?

[CanOz]

Thats a Bloody big can to be kicking down the road DB!

 

[Bintang]

Thats a Bloody big can to be kicking down the road DB!

Yes, but it will be in the company of a lot of other big Cans already kicked down the road by USA, Europe and Japan.
The interesting question is which Can will get to the end of the road first.

 

[notting]

Congratulations if you sold your property in China 2 or so years ago!!

More on China, where the government may be forced to relax property regulations and support the country's weak real estate sector after sales dived 16.3 per cent in January and February, stoking concerns of a sharper-than-expected downturn.


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...s-take-over-20150312-3rxog.html#ixzz3U95TOCz1

China’s economy is already behind target as monetary easing shows few signs of traction.

Bloomberg’s gross domestic product tracker, which draws on that data as well as measures such as electricity production, shows economic growth slowing to 6.28 per cent in the period, the weakest pace since the start of 2009.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...s-take-over-20150312-3rxog.html#ixzz3U98k0yGg

 

[notting]

Whoops, getting a bit desperate, we need the peoples help to take dramatic steps to curb pollution.
Better motivate them with a video.
Quick pull the video they are going to revolt!!
http://www.vox.com/2015/3/10/8183881/pollution-is-changing-the-way-china-does-politics



Coal anybody?

 

[Bintang]

Whoops, getting a bit desperate, we need the peoples help to take dramatic steps to curb pollution.
Better motivate them with a video.
Quick pull the video they are going to revolt!!

Coal anybody?

I wonder how less cheap all the cheap stuff from China would have been over the years if China had made all the necessary investment along the way to mitigate its chronic air pollution.

Great video. (I had to switch to youtube to get the English subtitles).
Thanks for posting notting.

 

[StockTrader010]

The chinese bull market is crazy the last couple of weeks. Especially Chinese tech is starting to look like a bubble. I wonder how much longer Chinese regulators will wait untill they pull the plug :.

 

[DB008]

We Traveled Across China and Returned Terrified for the Economy​

China’s steel and metals markets, a barometer of the world’s second-biggest economy, are “a lot worse than you think,” according to a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst who just completed a tour of the country.

What he saw: idle cranes, empty construction sites and half-finished, abandoned buildings in several cities. Conversations with executives reinforced the “gloomy” outlook.

“China’s metals demand is plummeting,” wrote Kenneth Hoffman, the metals analyst who spent a week traveling across the country, meeting with executives, traders, industry groups and analysts. “Demand is rapidly deteriorating as the government slows its infrastructure building and transforms into a consumer economy.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-09/we-travelled-across-china-and-returned-terrified-for-the-economy​

 

[notting]

They didn't open up and are not opening up their markets to the world so the world can share in the bonanza. The Chinese are doing it so that the world gets the Invoice -

Kaisa Group Holdings has become China's first real estate company to default on its US currency debt. The default coincides with the expiration of a 30-day grace period on $US52 million of missed interest payments on two dollar-denominated bonds, according to a Hong Kong stock exchange statement Kaiser is struggling to service 65 billion yuan ($US10.5 billion) of debt owed to both onshore and offshore lenders

The developer's problems have rippled across the region's debt market, where investors starved of yield elsewhere in the world have swooped in to boost returns, it's raising concern that defaults will spread after overseas noteholders bought a record $US21.3 billion of bonds issued by Chinese property companies.

Re the the Chinese Stock market madness averaging PE of 50 -

China's stock trading fever has made the Shanghai Stock Exchange the world's biggest in terms of turnover, surpassing the New York Stock Exchange, but the explosion in volumes has exceeded the ability of the exchange's software to report it.

Oh ye, The most prolific hacking and internet information manipulating machine on earth the - Chinese Communist party, can't get it together to run software to report accurately on turnover volume in the stock market!!!

Yeah sure.

That's right, the Dictators are turning it over to the people. They have suddenly allowed the people to open 4 million new trading accounts in the last year alone, yes 4 Million. Now that's gotta create some kind of Frenzy. 'We can't do it with property any more the Communist Party thinks. I guess there's one last thing to do.'

Turn it over as quietly as possible.

Take the money and run.

 

[rimtas]

They have suddenly allowed the people to open 4 million new trading accounts in the last year alone, yes 4 Million

From our point of view 4 million is a big number, but from Chinese point of view it is a drop in the ocean. How much 4 mil is over all population? 0,5%, or less?
Will you wonder if there are some 100K new accounts in Australia for comparison?

 

[PennD]

From our point of view 4 million is a big number, but from Chinese point of view it is a drop in the ocean. How much 4 mil is over all population? 0,5%, or less?
Will you wonder if there are some 100K new accounts in Australia for comparison?

Yes, but if they are 4 million "wealthy" Chinese then it would be quite significant...
Majority of chinese have very little so should really be left out of any % equation...
Anyone know the previous years growth rates?

 

[notting]

From our point of view 4 million is a big number, but from Chinese point of view it is a drop in the ocean.

4 million is an absolute monster number in a market that had relativity very few players relative to that 10 fold increase in one year. When else have you seen a market running an average PE ration of 50? Never! Nor has there ever been an opening up on such a scale in such a short period of time. :sheep:

 

[DB008]

We're Just Learning the True Cost of China's Debt​

The true cost of the debt that China’s real estate developers peddled to eager international investors during a five-year property boom is now becoming clear.

Having found themselves shut out of local bond and loan markets seven years ago, a band of developers began looking elsewhere for funds. First an initial public offering, and then a dollar bond sale. It became a well-trodden path. By 2010, a core group of four -- Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd., Fantasia Holdings Group Co., Renhe Commercial Holdings Co., Glorious Property Holdings Ltd. -- raised a total of $5.6 billion. On Monday, Kaisa buckled under $10.5 billion of debt and defaulted.

China’s home builders became the single biggest source of dollar junk debt in Asia amid government measures to prevent a property bubble. Developers already funneled $78.8 billion from international equity and bond markets into an industry that’s grown to account for one third of the world’s second-biggest economy. Most of the first rush of dollar offerings, in 2010, falls due in the next two years.

“It was an unintended consequence of the Chinese government that property developers are selling equity and debt to offshore investors,” said Ben Sy, a Hong Kong-based managing director in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s private banking division. “There happened to be huge demand from international investors in the past few years driven by the intense search for yield.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-22/china-wall-of-exported-junk-developer-debt-falls-on-global-funds​

 

[StockTrader010]

When the time comes and the trend reverses, what ETF would be the best play to short?

 

[Tyler Durden]

Now, just as the economy is coming off the boil – prompting solemn warnings from the country's top leaders – China's sharemarkets are on a tear, more than doubling in value in the past year and adding more than $5 trillion to market capitalisation.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange's daily turnover exceeded that of Wall Street's New York Stock Exchange for the first time in its history last month.

Price-earnings ratios (a valuation method for shares), particularly for riskier small-cap stocks, are looking stretched by conventional measures, prompting concerns over whether prices are entering bubble territory, or at the very least, whether the market's stellar bull run is sustainable.

An image that went viral of a streetside banana vendor watching the stocks.
An image that went viral of a streetside banana vendor watching the stocks. Photo: @wmiddelkoop via Twitter
The amount borrowed by investors to purchase stocks has quadrupled from a year earlier, fuelled by a recent surge in margin trading, which, in turn, is often funded by China's infamous shadow lending sector.

Investors continue to pile in at an increasing rate. Five million new trading accounts were opened in March. And, just last week, another 3.3 million new share accounts were created; 10 times more than normal.

Many economists and demographers point to the lack of a comprehensive social welfare net in China as a key reason for its people's stereotypical streak of conservatism and a high savings rate.

However, the inverse is also true, and many, especially younger Chinese, are entrepreneurial, willing to take risks, particularly when there is fast money to be made.

Anecdotes run rife of ordinary Chinese investors selling their homes (as the housing market cools) or quitting their jobs to speculate in – or, as it's known colloquially in Mandarin, to "stir-fry" – stocks.

Every significant sharemarket move is reported on the front pages of not just the financial dailies, but often on the more widely read city tabloids.

However, perhaps best encapsulating the sharemarket craze's mass appeal was a photo that went viral on Chinese social media this week of a street vendor selling bananas, engrossed on his laptop with share price graphs clearly visible on the screen. It evoked the famous anecdote of the "roaring twenties" just before the Great Depression hit, where famed US investor Joe Kennedy's shoeshine boy offered him a stock tip: "Buy Hindenburg."

Instead, Kennedy sold all his holdings, thinking: "You know it's time to sell when shoeshine boys give you stock tips. This bull market is over."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/shar...-as-chinas-economy-slows-20150504-1myq9r.html

 

[DB008]

When the time comes and the trend reverses, what ETF would be the best play to short?

http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/#each-overview

I'm sure there are more short Aussie ETF's out there...

 

[qldfrog]

http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/#each-overview

I'm sure there are more short Aussie ETF's out there...

BBOZ but also BEAR
BEAR is not leveraged, but then as per my experience, what is the point?
By default, i used BEAR for a while but if the market falls by let's say 10%, you get a 10% (well not that exact sure figurebut around) fall of bear which means you need to buy a lot to balance your exposure somewhat and yet inflation tick and you do not get returns..can not win and better stay in cash in most cases

i so switched from BEAR to BBOZ when it was released,
Just unsure at the actual asset equivalent, so a bit of a guess as to what the price means exactly

 

[StockTrader010]

http://www.betashares.com.au/products/name/australian-equities-strong-bear-fund/#each-overview

I'm sure there are more short Aussie ETF's out there...

Thanks! I'll dig into it

 

[notting]

Many investors keen to invest in the booming Chinese stock market now more open to foreigners have gotten their first taste of what kind of returns you should expect -

You may have been following the curious case of the Hong Kong-listed Hanergy which dropped 47 per cent in 24 minutes, erasing a accumulated (notional value) of $24 billion.

Turns out that value has been an illusion for some time. In his latest blog post, Bronte Capital's John Hempton writes about an extraordinary trip he made to Hanergy's main factory in China six weeks ago in which he concluded that "Hanergy barely existed":

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/

Such a wonderful bunch of people.

 

[satanoperca]

Many investors keen to invest in the booming Chinese stock market now more open to foreigners have gotten their first taste of what kind of returns you should expect -



http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/

Such a wonderful bunch of people.

Can anyone post of chart of this company, would love to have a look at it from purely a T/A point of view.

 

[peter2]

Hanergy was available to trade on the Saxo bank platform. Weekly chart of 566:HK.