Elliott Wave and the XAO

[sinner]

Do we really need such a Muppet in this community? If this guy was a dog in the village it would have been euthanised to the cheers of everyone a long time ago. It just makes this place unpleasant.

Come on man! How valuable is a forecast like "the crash is coming last Monday but there will also be a rally to all time new highs soon to shake out those predicting a crash" which aren't forecasts but actually sentiment experiments with us as the subjects?

:run:

Yes I agree.
Personal rubbish.

So how come last time we called rimtas out on it, you designated us all a pack of fundy wolves who should lay off? Makes it look like you're not paying attention tech.

You know
WOW could make $10
Was $5 not all that long ago.

While I agree that Elliot has a number of
Alternate counts and the goal posts move
From time to time.

I've seen some really horrible fundamental
Calls over the years as well.

Give the guy a break.
Your all like a pack of fundamental wolves.

Your like a school bully Mc Muffin.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

which aren't forecasts but actually sentiment experiments with us as the subjects?

I used to run covert sentiment experiments on HC.

They only tend to work at the extremes (high and low).

I stopped because they weren't really ethical. One has to be prepared to mess with peoples' confidence and guage reactions. It can cost people more than just their money.

edit:

HC is an interesting place if anyone's not visited it. It's like the Wild West! You've got heaps of small retail traders who fly by the seat of their pants, a couple of huge whales who enjoy the micro cap thing. There's a number of skilled FA guys, but no one really good at TA. A few jokesters. Too much political commentary for my liking and quite a few conspiracy theorists!

 

[Porper]

I think I just found more reliable indicator to determine short term movements. One is Foolish, working quite good, as they publish newsletters almost each day and at the extreme of the small wave they write of what the opposite must be done.
Another is porper. I will call it a Porper Indicator. Though he claimed that he trades for a living, but this kind of herding and extrapolation of short term moves must leave him hungry. Yeasterday was the confirmation of the wave bottom that ended, as Porper indicator turned bearish, confirming that the rebound is underway.

The best way to determine where and when this rebound ends is to look at the wave structure, read Foolish letters and wait maybe Porper will step out with some bullish forecast as this will be the last highest point to load up on shorts.

Chart is of US Russell 2000


View attachment 64452

Yes I agree.
Personal rubbish.

Looks like I have my very own stalker...I feel like a movie star Difficult to post any analysis though with this guy refreshing pages and replying with nonsense within seconds. I believe he is mentally ill so if the mods think he is good for business I'll leave it to you. Shame it's come to this after over 10 years on here.

 

[CanOz]

Looks like I have my very own stalker...I feel like a movie star Difficult to post any analysis though with this guy refreshing pages and replying with nonsense within seconds. I believe he is mentally ill so if the mods think he is good for business I'll leave it to you. Shame it's come to this after over 10 years on here.

Porper, you've been a long standing member since 2004 and a member that always presented your analysis in the most unbiased way possible. You've never pushed your analysis onto anyone else, you've always been super polite as well.

This tosser comes along and insults everyone with an alternative view, he's always looking for an argument, he's simply an internet troll and he should be banned.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Looks like I have my very own stalker...I feel like a movie star Difficult to post any analysis though with this guy refreshing pages and replying with nonsense within seconds. I believe he is mentally ill so if the mods think he is good for business I'll leave it to you. Shame it's come to this after over 10 years on here.

Put him on ignore Porper. You are right he has some issues that he seems unable to control. I suspect he will soon be gone as he just cannot help himself. Its funny how EW attracts some of the real crazies.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I used to run covert sentiment experiments on HC.

Sounds a bit like black ops the way I put it!

All it amounted to was what contrary posters do naturally. The only difference was I'd analyze the reactions. There was a guy on HC called meerkat - used to do it all the time! Everything he said was against the trend! All very funny until he starts saying your stock is going to fall 50%!

Ahh, forums.

 

[Porper]

Put him on ignore Porper. You are right he has some issues that he seems unable to control. I suspect he will soon be gone as he just cannot help himself. Its funny how EW attracts some of the real crazies.

You are correct there T.H. There have been several on here over the years. Some with multi-nicks. Elliott Wave is so discretionary and open to interpretation that I think it just causes conflict. Everybody thinks their analysis is correct...me included I have to admit.

Thanks CanOz, I wouldn't shove Elliott Wave down anybody's throat. As much as I think it's a good tool to have in the box it doesn't make you the money.

 

[PennD]

Rimtas.

Any reference to earlier posts/views are used as points of reference to facilitate analysis of current views/analysis.
Sometimes it's 5-6 months since that earlier post and it's taken all that time for the market move to play out. Readers will not remember a post from 6 months earlier.

The last analysis was that the XAO had a high probability of finding a low on this leg down in the 4800-5000 zone based on statistical cyclic analysis of price reaching extreme levels relative to excursions away from a nominal trend level. Taking those charts at face value one would expect a rally would carry into September and back up to 5300 and may extend to 5400-5500 based on that cycles work. It may work out or it maybe a dud, but my plan of attack is based around that analysis.

Unlike you we are not chopping and changing wave counts gyrating from bull to bear in this volatility.

Hi Gartley, well we're in the zone you mentioned above, maybe a little over in time but price is spot on.
Im looking for a reversal this week lasting a good 6 weeks or so. Would love to know what your cycles are saying.
Hope your well

 

[gartley]

Hi Gartley, well we're in the zone you mentioned above, maybe a little over in time but price is spot on.
Im looking for a reversal this week lasting a good 6 weeks or so. Would love to know what your cycles are saying.
Hope your well

Hello PennD. Yes we over ran September and the way it looks now the rally may carry into November as seen buy the Delta Fixed cycles attached. I have also added the daily cycles analysis and they suggest no top yet but rather a continuation of the uptrend after the correction that started today completes. Cycles suggest the final top for this leg should carry to 5500+

The correctiont hat started today was evident on the 1 hr and 5 hr bar cycles but I have only attached the daily cycles.

Cheers

 

[gartley]

Just adding and updating last the last post. The Delta time cycles in that post suggest red point 8 and a possible termination of the rally. These cycle points are only a guide, and whilst sometimes they can be bang on, quite often actual cycle points occur some days/weeks well before (especially if it's a major pivot) and other some other after. This is due to left/right hand translation of cycles.
Taking that cycle point 8 at face value relative to earlier point 8 cycle points it should be 3rd week November.
At this point in time it's probably hard to believe and that is why other methods need to be used to give more confidence.
For me until such time that the cycles are topping on the daily cycles charts as well as price reaching an extreme( both of which have not happened yet), then I will remain bullish. Once these conditions are met then maybe it's time to start looking at the time factor in more detail.
I have attached a chart of the AUS200 showing a potential Gartley pattern setting up on the daily. The pattern is not as symmetrical as I would like, however it does give a probable termination of 5500+ which similar to what the cycles projection suggests.

 

[PennD]

Just adding and updating last the last post. The Delta time cycles in that post suggest red point 8 and a possible termination of the rally. These cycle points are only a guide, and whilst sometimes they can be bang on, quite often actual cycle points occur some days/weeks well before (especially if it's a major pivot) and other some other after. This is due to left/right hand translation of cycles.
Taking that cycle point 8 at face value relative to earlier point 8 cycle points it should be 3rd week November.
At this point in time it's probably hard to believe and that is why other methods need to be used to give more confidence.
For me until such time that the cycles are topping on the daily cycles charts as well as price reaching an extreme( both of which have not happened yet), then I will remain bullish. Once these conditions are met then maybe it's time to start looking at the time factor in more detail.
I have attached a chart of the AUS200 showing a potential Gartley pattern setting up on the daily. The pattern is not as symmetrical as I would like, however it does give a probable termination of 5500+ which similar to what the cycles projection suggests.

Thank you for your detailed reply Gartly!
Please check your messages

Cheers

 

[gartley]

Just following on from the last post where I posted a developing bearish Gartley pattern on the XAO.

As mentioned in that post this pattern appears to be not symmetrical for my liking, however I posted it anyway because it's potential termination lined up nicely with my cycles termination for this leg up.
I should make a note here and mention that price will reach an extreme at 5500+. We should have some sort of correction, but how much of a correction remains to be seen because there maybe a larger cycle in play of higher degree that is more bullish.
As such as mentioned in that post I will remain bullish despite the correction of this last week. To add weight to this argument I have attached some charts of BHP which is the biggest heavyweight mining stocks. If the conclusion made from these charts is correct we should have a very good 2-3 months on the Aussie market for the miners.
BHP is showing a nice symmetrical bullish Gartley on the monthly chart with good upside potential. And zooming in on the daily chart we also have an inverted H and S pattern that might be developing but need a confirmed higher lower from the the last major low to confirm. All in all I think it maybe a good setup that offers a very good R/R (Risk is only only $1.50 for a potential initial reward of over $7 with a stop just under $21.55.

More importantly the market might have a more bullish tone in the coming months. Ofcourse if the market falls through 21.55 in a big way it's invalidated Time will tell.....

 

[Porper]

Just following on from the last post where I posted a developing bearish Gartley pattern on the XAO.

As mentioned in that post this pattern appears to be not symmetrical for my liking, however I posted it anyway because it's potential termination lined up nicely with my cycles termination for this leg up.
I should make a note here and mention that price will reach an extreme at 5500+. We should have some sort of correction, but how much of a correction remains to be seen because there maybe a larger cycle in play of higher degree that is more bullish.
As such as mentioned in that post I will remain bullish despite the correction of this last week. To add weight to this argument I have attached some charts of BHP which is the biggest heavyweight mining stocks. If the conclusion made from these charts is correct we should have a very good 2-3 months on the Aussie market for the miners.
BHP is showing a nice symmetrical bullish Gartley on the monthly chart with good upside potential. And zooming in on the daily chart we also have an inverted H and S pattern that might be developing but need a confirmed higher lower from the the last major low to confirm. All in all I think it maybe a good setup that offers a very good R/R (Risk is only only $1.50 for a potential initial reward of over $7 with a stop just under $21.55.

More importantly the market might have a more bullish tone in the coming months. Ofcourse if the market falls through 21.55 in a big way it's invalidated Time will tell.....

Nice pickups Gartley. Let's see if the Santa rally can give a helping hand.

 

[PennD]

Just following on from the last post where I posted a developing bearish Gartley pattern on the XAO.

As mentioned in that post this pattern appears to be not symmetrical for my liking, however I posted it anyway because it's potential termination lined up nicely with my cycles termination for this leg up.
I should make a note here and mention that price will reach an extreme at 5500+. We should have some sort of correction, but how much of a correction remains to be seen because there maybe a larger cycle in play of higher degree that is more bullish.
As such as mentioned in that post I will remain bullish despite the correction of this last week. To add weight to this argument I have attached some charts of BHP which is the biggest heavyweight mining stocks. If the conclusion made from these charts is correct we should have a very good 2-3 months on the Aussie market for the miners.
BHP is showing a nice symmetrical bullish Gartley on the monthly chart with good upside potential. And zooming in on the daily chart we also have an inverted H and S pattern that might be developing but need a confirmed higher lower from the the last major low to confirm. All in all I think it maybe a good setup that offers a very good R/R (Risk is only only $1.50 for a potential initial reward of over $7 with a stop just under $21.55.

More importantly the market might have a more bullish tone in the coming months. Ofcourse if the market falls through 21.55 in a big way it's invalidated Time will tell.....

Nice analysis gartley.. I've been away all long weekend with no reception. Back and refreshed will be following closely

 

[gartley]

Thanks Penn D. I am optimistic it will move in our direction. Thankfully market rally has decided to persist after correction but cycles always suggested it would

Looks like the EW bears have gone into a long hibernation......

 

[PennD]

Thanks Penn D. I am optimistic it will move in our direction. Thankfully market rally has decided to persist after correction but cycles always suggested it would

Looks like the EW bears have gone into a long hibernation......

Well the dam burst on that pattern. Flooded out the bears from hibernation...
who am i when i trade on the misfortune of others?
Is it all really just numbers on a screen...?

 

[gartley]

Well the dam burst on that pattern. Flooded out the bears from hibernation...
who am i when i trade on the misfortune of others?
Is it all really just numbers on a screen...?

Yeah sure did!! Blew the short term H&S pattern out of contention but that's trading. However one pattern becomes violated and a new one arises. Now we have a larger long term 5 wave structure that maybe ending with BHP capitulating into a possible low along with other blue chips ending in 5 wave structures.

Thankfully the very long term Gartley is still valid and the 89 month cycle count from all time high till now is still in play. Took another stab after the earlier stop out.

Have attached the AUS200 5hr cycles and Delta fixed term MTD cycles. They suggest a low between now and mid next week although no buy signal triggered yet but getting close. Around 4970 might to it. Price ideally should reach lower boundary first but does not always happen

 

[zzaaxxss3401]

I love it how, when there are clear indicators of market direction, that this thread is full of activity. However, when there is uncertainty or lack of indication, there are no "suggestions" or "predictions" forth coming.

Any of the EW'ers keen to shed some light on where the market is heading / headed? Anyone able to put a chart up with possible market plays? Thank you.

 

[Porper]

Any of the EW'ers keen to shed some light on where the market is heading / headed? Anyone able to put a chart up with possible market plays? Thank you.

First of all the focus should be on the 50-61.8% retracement zone as shown. If that fails to hold then the triangle is going to be the corrective pattern of choice. It could take longer to unfold than depicted here. This would be the most bullish trajectory. No Armageddon as far as I can see.

 

[Triathlete]

At this stage looking for the XAO to continue towards 4500.It is all down at the moment.