Elliott Wave and the XAO

[rimtas]

Let's laugh like real mates

 

[Porper]

Let's laugh like real mates

View attachment 64344

Can anybody spot the big mistake with this chart? Clue...a series of first and second waves...to where?

 

[gartley]

Wait 1 more day, and then say are you glad or not. W4 triangle that you and porper sees is non existent.

Just to clarify, I (we) don't think is a wave 4 contracting triangle. I don't even know if it's a wave 4 for that matter. Other analysis presented so far only suggested :
1/ That at the capitulation of August that we would get a rally that would carry into September. IT HAS and also suggested the index may move to 5400/5500.
2/ Cycles suggested that this was not a contracting triangle but most likely an abc or zig zag with intermediate contracting triangle b wave.

On that basis it was a solid argument to build a case for a long and short term swing trade. In the end however my opinion does not decide what is a good opportunity. My rules do (right or wrong)

After this move (if it goes as expected) I have no idea what the next move will be, however the market will tell us what it wants to do eventually

 

[Triathlete]

I have no idea what the next move will be, however the market will tell us what it wants to do eventually

Exactly.....Trade on what you See not what you think.......!!

 

[Porper]

Just to clarify, I (we) don't think is a wave 4 contracting triangle. I don't even know if it's a wave 4 for that matter.
After this move (if it goes as expected) I have no idea what the next move will be, however the market will tell us what it wants to do eventually

The patterns on the XAO are difficult to decipher from an Elliott Wave point of view. I'll say again that The Wave Theory isn't the be all and end all of technical analysis.

You have to know when to use other tools in the toolbox. Now is that time...at least for me. That said the whole world is watching and waiting for the Fed's decision overnight so short-term anything can happen. Could just as easily be a big yawn though. This would be the best scenario I reckon.

 

[PennD]

Can anybody spot the big mistake with this chart? Clue...a series of first and second waves...to where?

To about -2000

 

[Porper]

To about -2000

Assuming wave-3 will travel at least 1.618x wave-1 (the norm) then the target is 1264. But that will only complete a normal third wave. Then we have waves-4 & -5 to come. Wave-5 will normally be the same length as wave-1 meaning...we almost run out of numbers. It's impossible to get a normal 5-wave Elliott pattern down the way that chart is labelled.

Assuming wave-4 will be shallow (expected) then we are looking at a target roughly around 200 (yes two hundred). We'll all need guns to guard our vege. patches before that happens!

 

[gartley]

To about -2000

Exactly!!! If we are about to enter 3 of 3 of 3 (point of recognition), the mid point of the whole move from the 5200 then it's headed for a "China Syndrome"

Actually if anything, it appears almost ready to start the largest counter trend rally since the decline started from 5200. And if it isn't, then it's high probability that downside is limited from current levels to only another 5-7% max

So if anything the last series of 1-2's should be labelled opposite.
The market has ALREADY crashed for now. Most likely it will fall to lower levels in the longer term.

 

[Porper]

You have to know when to use other tools in the toolbox. Now is that time...at least for me. That said the whole world is watching and waiting for the Fed's decision overnight so short-term anything can happen. Could just as easily be a big yawn though. This would be the best scenario I reckon.

The big yawn appears to have been the end result of the Fed's decision to leave rates alone.

U.S markets closing almost flat with no more volatility than has been seen recently. A good result in regard to the patterns.

The big "crash" some were predicting today proved to be utter rubbish. Patterns and projections remain unchanged. Still scope for a bounce. Bearish trigger (late August low) still valid though.

 

[Trembling Hand]

The big "crash" some were predicting today proved to be utter rubbish.

You can always claim latter that it was just a "social experiment".

 

[Porper]

You can always claim latter that it was just a "social experiment".

No doubt somebody tonight will be saying exactly that...can't wait.

 

[PennD]

No doubt somebody tonight will be saying exactly that...can't wait.

IMHO there is no need to poke the dragon...
We would all benfit from this

 

[Porper]

IMHO there is no need to poke the dragon...
We would all benfit from this

It was tongue in cheek.

Trust me,I have no wish to talk about social experiments or crashes that have been postponed because of...whatever reason. I can't be arsed explaining myself anymore so purely on topic... patterns etc.

With this in mind a nice turnaround so far today...the bounce is still on course. Close above yesterdays high would be good. Then a rally into the 5446 - 5567 zone as a minimum. That's the next inflection point.

 

[Porper]

Your understanding of EW is rubbish.

Thanks Rimtas. I thought I was going wrong somewhere. Good to see you back.

I do not know how you make money.

No, well you never will know either. I do this for a job...so obviously do make a living. Put in the hard work and you too could do this for a living Rimtas. Oh, I forgot... you said Day Traders will always lose in the end.

 

[rimtas]

Trading for a living is dream. So if you declare you are living from it you must be in one of the 2 categories:

1. You are the dreamer, always failing in life and realizing your dreams only in social media.

2. You have been in the markets for decades and know how it behaves. From you posts I don't see anything supporting this case.



I do not trade for a living. I still have not been able to determine the best strategy to come home and say to my wife and kids-hey, no lunch today as market went wrong side.
Saving from the market catching some waves is a good thing and this is quite easy, but daytrading and planning your future everyday expenses from this...well god luck with that. One day I will probably see you on the street with an empty plate asking for meal.


Instead of your analysis, you would better declare your open positions and instead saying XAO will go down, say that you opened a short position on it. Just to make a feel what kind of life is it from trading, you know.

 

[Porper]

Trading for a living is dream.

Good on you for admitting you can't trade for a living. You actually aren't too far away. At least you know the absolute basics of Elliott Wave. Another few years study and you could be doing just that. Hang in there and keep plugging away. That's my last reply to you Rimtas... i.m.o. it's not worth the time. Enjoy your trading.

 

[rimtas]

Good on you for admitting you can't trade for a living..

The earlier you admit this, the earlier you start making money from markets. Stop saying to youself that you can. Just make it happen.

Look Porper, I show you the chart of crash epicentre-France. I labelled it under your EW. How would you make a profit using your different count? Just prove your point.

 

[rimtas]

I think I just found more reliable indicator to determine short term movements. One is Foolish, working quite good, as they publish newsletters almost each day and at the extreme of the small wave they write of what the opposite must be done.
Another is porper. I will call it a Porper Indicator. Though he claimed that he trades for a living, but this kind of herding and extrapolation of short term moves must leave him hungry. Yeasterday was the confirmation of the wave bottom that ended, as Porper indicator turned bearish, confirming that the rebound is underway.

The best way to determine where and when this rebound ends is to look at the wave structure, read Foolish letters and wait maybe Porper will step out with some bullish forecast as this will be the last highest point to load up on shorts.

Chart is of US Russell 2000

 

[Trembling Hand]

Do we really need such a Muppet in this community? If this guy was a dog in the village it would have been euthanised to the cheers of everyone a long time ago. It just makes this place unpleasant.

 

[tech/a]

Do we really need such a Muppet in this community? If this guy was a dog in the village it would have been euthanised to the cheers of everyone a long time ago. It just makes this place unpleasant.

Yes I agree.
Personal rubbish.