Electric cars?

[mullokintyre]

Google is a very useful tool, it is also too loyal and will learn your search preferences and then give you the finds in the order that is organised for your preferences.
When am researching I try to find multiple sources and I rephrase question. I have also found that I get different results using a Microsoft PC and an Apple iMac, the iMac security is tighter and Google can’t track my searches as well as on the PC.

Google is a marketing tool.
It will organise "finds" based on maximizing their returns from advertisers.
If users get some sort of benefit, its an accident.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

Google is a marketing tool.
It will organise "finds" based on maximizing their returns from advertisers.
If users get some sort of benefit, its an accident.
Mick

It is getting harder but if you know how to use it as a tool Google is still useful.
Just need to dig deeper than we once had to. Change the wording and block some of the trackers.
As I mentioned before, the Apple software seems to reduce Googles tracking a bit better than most. I seem to get better resources from my search when using the iMac over my PC. It takes me longer to sift through the information Google gives me on the PC, but it is all there if you look & re/check.

 

[rederob]

Google is a very useful tool, it is also too loyal and will learn your search preferences and then give you the finds in the order that is organised for your preferences.
When am researching I try to find multiple sources and I rephrase question. I have also found that I get different results using a Microsoft PC and an Apple iMac, the iMac security is tighter and Google can’t track my searches as well as on the PC.

Part of the problem is also finding only apples to compare.
Take the chart below which is only about battery supply to the NEV market for the first 5 months of 2021:

Note BYD has only 5.5GWh deployed. Yet their year to November data shows installed capacity of 32.8GWh, but that number includes large storage as well.
Another point about BYD:

"BYD Co., the Chinese carmaker backed by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway, reported a strong showing, with its total November sales about equal to that of Tesla Inc., Nio Inc., Li Auto Inc. and Xpeng Inc. combined." ​

What's remarkable about BYD is that less than 5% of its vehicles have to date been sold outside China (November sales of over 90k NEVs). But that changes in 2022 as the door to Europe just opened and they are now focusing on half their fleet sales for export.
Here's where I think Tesla should stick to its knitting and let other automakers do what they do best:

 

[Humid]

Do you want to visit that smelter once in the life of your vehicle, or every week for the vehicles life, because as I said before we know making battery materials has an impact, but you only have to mine the battery materials once, and then they can be almost endlessly recycled, where as the oil you burn is refined every week.

Nah just 14 x12 hour shifts is plenty

 

[Humid]

If you ever get a real job a rule of thumb is if the stack is really high they are pumping out some bad $hit

 

[JohnDe]

Part of the problem is also finding only apples to compare.

True, that's why when I searched I used multiple descriptions for my search. I also searched for 'largest battery manufacturer by ranking' and ' largest EV battery manufacturer by ranking', as well as a few other descriptions.

If you look at my posts on the previous page you will find that I included two links, one with the ranking of the largest overall battery manufacturers and the other with EV battery manufacturers. both did not include BYD in the top 3.

 

[JohnDe]

If you ever get a real job a rule of thumb is if the stack is really high they are pumping out some bad $hit

That reminds me of when my partner & I back packed through Europe in the early 1990's, after a few days in London we were blowing black soot out of our noses.

It's a shame that people don't realise that vehicle exhaust is invisible and mostly odourless but full of stuff that's not good for your lungs and is easily passed into the blood stream.

European countries are slowly banning ICE vehicles from their busy city centres.

 

[divs4ever]

the black soot will not go away soon BECAUSE a lot of it is degraded tyre particles with a little help from degraded brake pads/linings

and that was known in the days of crude ( non catalytic ) mufflers only leaded petrol and hardly anyone had electronically tuned engines

HOWEVER it is not the black soot that is the problem ( unless you are a cleaner ) there are other unhealthy things in vehicle exhausts ( and carbon dioxide was still plant 'oxygen' way back then as well )

now EVs can be a positive move forward ( even though they have a 100 years of wasted opportunities to have done so ) but progressing the agenda on junk science ??

how can that be inspiring or true progress

 

[sptrawler]

This is VERY interesting,go past the executive summary.
The ? overall review: most have serious issues needing replacement which is not great in term of having one at home.
Disappointed by Tesla..decent robustness but capacity falling imho too fast ..so not that great for cars in future?
Redflow technology looking great as capacity seems quite constant but heaps of issues..so could be wonderful if mature.
A must read i think for purchasers

Yes I didn't want to make any observations, but the oldest son has been monitoring the tests since their inception, changed from originally going to go flow batteries to now going with BYD.
The system gets installed next month, so ASF will have its own actual off grid system, to be able to follow in real time, with a family of 5 including 3 kids ranging from ,9_13.
It should be interesting.lol

 

[rederob]

True, that's why when I searched I used multiple descriptions for my search. I also searched for 'largest battery manufacturer by ranking' and ' largest EV battery manufacturer by ranking', as well as a few other descriptions.

If you look at my posts on the previous page you will find that I included two links, one with the ranking of the largest overall battery manufacturers and the other with EV battery manufacturers. both did not include BYD in the top 3.

I get that John, but did you know that this link of yours only used data for January to end- April 2021?
The link I went to was a vehicle industry portal that needs a log-in and subscription to access more detailed info, and was supposed to reflect the situation at December. Just remember that CATL's production increased 3400% (not a typo) from 2016 to 2020, so given BYD's explosive NEV sales this year, getting to number 3 is not improbable.

The rate of change in the NEV space is spectacular, and more than anything it's what I want to discuss. No doubt from month to month we will see players come and go in their rankings as new car models are released and the cheaper LFP batteries lower vehicle purchase prices. What I have been more curious about in this regard is the role chips have played. Clearly legacy auto has been affected, but for some inexplicable reason the Chinese EV sector has powered ahead. Several months ago I watched a Chinese YouTube site and from the subtitles it was clear that a number of the Chinese automakers were partnering with Chinese chip producers using a larger platform size, rather than the nanochips used by the likes of Tesla etc. . Their thinking was that they could get the functionality they needed for the most common driver needs, (but not autonomous driving and a few other things that were relatively trivial unless you had lidar and more cameras and sensors you could poke a stick at) so went with that.

 

[JohnDe]

I get that John, but did you know that this link of yours only used data for January to end- April 2021?
The link I went to was a vehicle industry portal that needs a log-in and subscription to access more detailed info, and was supposed to reflect the situation at December. Just remember that CATL's production increased 3400% (not a typo) from 2016 to 2020, so given BYD's explosive NEV sales this year, getting to number 3 is not improbable.

I'm not sure what you mean. The data I show dated April 2021 is out of date? But your data which shows "% growth, 2016 to 2020" proves that BYD is the worlds number 3 battery manufacturer?

Possible and probable is not factual.

I am currently investing in the EV and related industries, I need more facts than probabilities.

 

[JohnDe]

Yes I didn't want to make any observations, but the oldest son has been monitoring the tests since their inception, changed from originally going to go flow batteries to now going with BYD.
The system gets installed next month, so ASF will have its own actual off grid system, to be able to follow in real time, with a family of 5 including 3 kids ranging from ,9_13.
It should be interesting.lol

LFP & NCM batteries have differing advantages and disadvantages.

LFP can be charged to 100% every time, NCM (with the right software) is best suited to 90% charge and the occasional 100% charge. NCM will hold more energy than an equivalent sized LFP.

Tesla found this out a while ago and is why they use LFP in the standard model M3, while reserving the NCM battery for the long range (LP) and performance (P) models. Weight is similar but the range is very different.

"NCM battery features higher power rating and energy density compared to LFP battery due to its higher lithium diffusion rate and....."

This is why NCM is the preferable Cathode material for Li-ion batteries - LG Battery Blog Europe

In the past months, we often saw questions about whether NCM (Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide) is the best material for being used as cathode

lghomebatteryblog.eu

 

[sptrawler]

What I have been more curious about in this regard is the role chips have played. Clearly legacy auto has been affected, but for some inexplicable reason the Chinese EV sector has powered ahead. Several months ago I watched a Chinese YouTube site and from the subtitles it was clear that a number of the Chinese automakers were partnering with Chinese chip producers using a larger platform size, rather than the nanochips used by the likes of Tesla etc. . Their thinking was that they could get the functionality they needed for the most common driver needs, (but not autonomous driving and a few other things that were relatively trivial unless you had lidar and more cameras and sensors you could poke a stick at) so went with that.

That is an interesting point, in reality a vehicle has a lot of "dead" space, so chip size isn't so much an issue as it is in say a smart phone.
It would be interesting if the Chinese are going off in a different direction and are actually heading toward a new design paradigm, from my understanding most cars have a central ecu, which interrogates satellite modules.

 

[JohnDe]

Tesla Inc.’s shift to less expensive batteries for its electric vehicles is expected to shake the global battery industry.
Oct 22, 2021

The world’s top EV maker said on Oct. 21 that it is installing lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries to all of its standard-range EVs. The move is likely to intensify competition between Chinese battery producers such as CATL and BYD that manufacturers LFP cells and South Korean makers that focus on nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) batteries.

The LFP batteries’ global market shares rose to 24.1% in the first half of this year from 14.8% a year earlier, according to market tracker SNE Research, on surging sales of the Tesla Model 3 and the Hongguang MINI EV in China. On the other hand, market shares of NCM622 and NCM523 – common NCM types – fell to 22% and 16% from 22.5% and 19.4%, respectively, during the period.

LFP cells with shorter mileage have been mainly used in China due to lower prices. The industry expected NCM batteries with high energy density to become the trend for EVs that requires longer mileage and a shorter charging time.

LG Chem Ltd. and POSCO Chemical Co. also said they are actively mulling business on LFP cathode materials to diversify their product portfolio rather than to focus only on NCM batteries.

“Nobody is producing LFP batteries in Korea, but nobody can ignore the strength of low costs of LFP,” said an industry source. “It is a key to secure price competitiveness in order to beat Chinese players.”

NCM BATTERIES TO WIN IN LONG TERM

Despite the recent popularity of LFP cells, demand for NCM batteries is expected to rise in the longer term. It is hard to improve LFP cells’ energy density due to the limitation of materials.

Samsung SDI Co. and LG Energy Solution did not consider LFP battery production. They decided to produce high-nickel NCM batteries or nickel, cobalt and aluminum (NCA) batteries. They also aimed to cut costs to lower than $100/kWh and increase mileage.

CATL was also known to plan to raise NCM battery production in the longer term.

NCM batteries’ price competitiveness is expected to improve from around 2027 when the current battery lifespan of eight to ten years is over and the battery recycling business is expected to grow, analysts said.

Tesla also said the energy density of LFP cells cannot reach the level of NCM batteries’ density, expecting the latter to most rapidly grow in the next one to two decades. LFP batteries will be used for cheaper EVs with short mileage, it said.

The global battery market is expected to be divided into two sectors – NCM batteries for medium and high-end EVs and LFP cells for low-end models.

Tesla’s shift to LFP cells to shake global battery industry - KED Global

Tesla Inc.’s shift to less expensive batteries for its electric vehicles is expected to shake the global battery industry.The world’s top EV maker

www.kedglobal.com

 

[sptrawler]

LFP & NCM batteries have differing advantages and disadvantages.

LFP can be charged to 100% every time, NCM (with the right software) is best suited to 90% charge and the occasional 100% charge. NCM will hold more energy than an equivalent sized LFP.

Tesla found this out a while ago and is why they use LFP in the standard model M3, while reserving the NCM battery for the long range (LP) and performance (P) models. Weight is similar but the range is very different.

"NCM battery features higher power rating and energy density compared to LFP battery due to its higher lithium diffusion rate and....."

This is why NCM is the preferable Cathode material for Li-ion batteries - LG Battery Blog Europe

In the past months, we often saw questions about whether NCM (Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide) is the best material for being used as cathode

lghomebatteryblog.eu

Yes, I also think with the natural advantage NCM has over LFP, that sector has been sitting on its hands somewhat and living on the legacy of the 18650.
Now that the LFP energy density has been improved to within about 60% of NMC, there may be a spur to renew the R&D in the NMC space, which is what I'm hoping happens.
There is nothing like competition to drive ingenuity.
But it is also why I sold down a lot of my NMT, IMO no point in not locking in a profit when the court is out on which way is the best way forward, there won't be a big call for battery recycling if the recovered metals are worthless.

 

[divs4ever]

That is an interesting point, in reality a vehicle has a lot of "dead" space, so chip size isn't so much an issue as it is in say a smart phone.
It would be interesting if the Chinese are going off in a different direction and are actually heading toward a new design paradigm, from my understanding most cars have a central ecu, which interrogates satellite modules.

now i don't focus on computers as much as a few years back but several CPU technologies have the potential to be quite flexible for example AMD were putting an impressive graphics processor inside the CPU which might not seem so fantastic until you realize that could also be a high quality maths processor instead .

and yes even back then China was working on it's own silicon ( and don't forget Japan they still have some solid skills

with China i think Jack Ma said it best China has one billion brains to help solve a problem ( so they could successfully find and perfect that paradigm if they chose to )

 

[JohnDe]

rederob said:
What I have been more curious about in this regard is the role chips have played. Clearly legacy auto has been affected, but for some inexplicable reason the Chinese EV sector has powered ahead. Several months ago I watched a Chinese YouTube site and from the subtitles it was clear that a number of the Chinese automakers were partnering with Chinese chip producers using a larger platform size, rather than the nanochips used by the likes of Tesla etc. . Their thinking was that they could get the functionality they needed for the most common driver needs, (but not autonomous driving and a few other things that were relatively trivial unless you had lidar and more cameras and sensors you could poke a stick at) so went with that.

That is an interesting point, in reality a vehicle has a lot of "dead" space, so chip size isn't so much an issue as it is in say a smart phone.
It would be interesting if the Chinese are going off in a different direction and are actually heading toward a new design paradigm, from my understanding most cars have a central ecu, which interrogates satellite modules.

Any other source besides a YouTube video?

The largest EV manufacturer (by a longshot) is Tesla and they are the ones that had very little issue with chips, because -

"Tesla rewrote its own software to survive the chip shortage
Jul 26, 2021
The company was able to swap substitute chips after rewriting its firmware

Tesla is weathering the global chip shortage by rewriting its vehicle software to support alternative chips, CEO Elon Musk said during an earnings call Monday. The shortage has upended the auto industry at a time of historic demand for new cars, leading to factory shutdowns, longer wait times, and higher prices.

“We were able to substitute alternative chips, and then write the firmware in a matter of weeks,” Musk said. “It’s not just a matter of swapping out a chip; you also have to rewrite the software.”

This approach has helped Tesla maintain high levels of production, delivering over 200,000 vehicles to customers over the course of the last three months, the company said. Tesla generated $11.9 billion in revenue in the quarter, including $1.1 billion in profit.

Tesla isn’t alone in feeling the effects of the global shortage. With demand for cars at an all-time high, automakers around the world are feeling the constraints of production with chips in short supply. This week, Daimler and BMW said the lack of chips has forced it to shutdown some of their assembly lines, which will cut the companies’ output by tens of thousands of vehicles."

Tesla is now actively preparing to produce their own chipsets.

Tesla rewrote its own software to survive the chip shortage

“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious.”

www.theverge.com

 

[Value Collector]

View attachment 134026If you ever get a real job a rule of thumb is if the stack is really high they are pumping out some bad $hit

Looks pretty tame compared to a lot of oil refineries, they have some pretty tall stacks too, and because they are producing fuel needed daily to operate vehicles, rather than recyclable building materials needed once, there is 100’s of refineries.

 

[sptrawler]

with China i think Jack Ma said it best, China has one billion brains to help solve a problem ( so they could successfully find and perfect that paradigm if they chose to )

That pretty well sums it up IMO and they all work for the same company, whichever one moves ahead will have to share its knowledge with the others I would guess.

With Japan and Korea, I would guess the yanks are hoping they will keep them, ahead of the game. Because it has moved to degree away from just a throw money at it issue, to an R & D issue, which the West has outsourced with its manufacturing.
The West has very little R&D facilities and tend nowadays to focus on an existing process improvement e.g software improvements, very little is actually designed from the ground up in the West anymore.
It's a bit like the HZR announcement today, the high pressure heat treated furnace that is being manufactured in China has flaws, my appollogies very sorry, we try again.
If it was made here, as in the old days it would have been over engineered in the first place, but it would have cost more, well who knows what the delays will cost. Ah the clever country.

 

[sptrawler]

The largest EV manufacturer (by a longshot) is Tesla and they are the ones that had very little issue with chips, because -

"Tesla rewrote its own software to survive the chip shortage
Jul 26, 2021
The company was able to swap substitute chips after rewriting its firmware

Tesla is weathering the global chip shortage by rewriting its vehicle software to support alternative chips, CEO Elon Musk said during an earnings call Monday. The shortage has upended the auto industry at a time of historic demand for new cars, leading to factory shutdowns, longer wait times, and higher prices.

Which is why the legacy automakers will be having so much trouble, I would guess they may be incorporating as much of their Ice electronics as possible to reduce costs, but in reality it all becomes a hinderance.
The Chinese have the advantage of having the Tesla factory and there is no better way of keeping an eye on your competition, than building their product for them, only a thought.
A bit like if Tesla built a factory in Germany and asked BMW, VW and Merc to operate it for them, only a thought.