Electric cars?

[JohnDe]

I can certainly see China creaming the U.S in the E.V space, the rate of improvement in Chinese vehicles is mind blowing, 10 years ago the Great Wall utes and SUV's looked like junk, now the product from China is certainly stomping on the second tier Japanese manufacturers. This is actually causing a lot of consolidation in the smaller manufacturers of Europe and Japan.

On this trajectory China is going to decimate the established auto makers, within the next 10 years IMO.
Unfortunately I tend to think Tesla will be swallowed up in the process, but they will be one of the last to and may go willingly, if the price is right and space x hits its straps.


Interesting times ahead for some.

I can understand your view about China and the US EV industry, but could you share your reasoning on 'China...Tesla will be swallowed up in the process'.

Any company wanting to buy out Tesla is up for one very big loan.

Tesla are 8 years advanced of any other manufacturer on battery technology and software, as well as self drive research. The Tesla self drive artificial intelligence alone is worth a fortune and is being advanced every day that someone uses it and AP in their Tesla.

Taking over Tesla will require more than just taking over the car section, there is also the artificial intelligence, space travel, medical.....

 

[Humid]

Do mean when they are drilling for the oil, and refining it?

You could also say why don’t people mention the recycling of materials, because as I mentioned before the battery materials will be almost endlessly recycled, meaning the accounting of the environmental impact will be spread across multiple generations of vehicles, not just the first one.

if you take a look at BHP nickel mine for example, they aren’t despoiling rivers and the air as you claim, and a lot of lithium mines don’t dig at all, they pump it out of the ground water.

of mining materials has some environmental impact, but so does drilling and refining oil, and as pointed out you have to be continuously mining oil rather than just producing the battery once, and perhaps recycling it for a long time.

Yeah pop over to BHPs smelter in Kambalda for some fresh air....the nose bleeds are avoidable if you can get your mask on quick

 

[sptrawler]

I can understand your view about China and the US EV industry, but could you share your reasoning on 'China...Tesla will be swallowed up in the process'.

Any company wanting to buy out Tesla is up for one very big loan.

Tesla are 8 years advanced of any other manufacturer on battery technology and software, as well as self drive research. The Tesla self drive artificial intelligence alone is worth a fortune and is being advanced every day that someone uses it and AP in their Tesla.

Taking over Tesla will require more than just taking over the car section, there is also the artificial intelligence, space travel, medical.....

View attachment 133997

If Tesla were 10 years advanced in battery technology, they wouldn't be buying batteries off BYD, well I wouldn't think they would.
With regard everything else it is pretty simple really,the West has industrialized over the 100 years or so, over that time the population has come to see how the system works.
The worker does the grunt work, the management steer the ship and the financial backers sit back and are rewarded for the loan of the money.
Over time the shine dulls as a worker, because they are there rain hail or shine day in day out, yet the driving mechanism is money which over time loses it attraction.
Once people have a comfortable life, the urge to chase more and more money, only drives a few many just say jeez I would rather have more holidays or less hours. At that point the productivity curve flattens, you have to pay a LOT more money, to get a little extra productivity.
That is where the West is ATM.

China on the other hand didn't have to pay for that first 100 years of climbing the curve, both industrially and socially, in 20 years they have the productivity and technological output of the West, without the cost of the labour component.
Their workers are probably amazed at the wages and standard of living they are having, so the motivation is through the roof the loyalty to the company would be through the roof, because they know from life 20 years ago what being poor is, so in China's situation money is still a massive motivator.
Hope I explained where I'm coming from, may be wrong, but I just think big step changes in technology and productivity are going to be easier achieved by China they have way too many things in their favour and the West is carrying a lot of baggage.
The reason Tesla will be swallowed up is, they manufacture cars in China, China will and probably already is reverse engineering their product.
Eventually Tesla will sell out of cars, to the Chinese for megga bucks and a junior holding in the company, let's be honest in 10 years time China could put an embargo on the sale of Tesla's in China, if it so suits them. What's Tesla going to do declare war on them?

Firstly you could say people would rather buy a Tesla than a Chinese car, Holden and Ford thought that when the Toyota Corolla rolled out, then came the crappy Hyundai's and Kia's. Look at us now.

Secondly when has China ever said we will play fair, it is only our Western ideology that expects it to happen.

 

[JohnDe]

If Tesla were 10 years advanced in battery technology, they wouldn't be buying batteries off BYD, well I wouldn't think they would.
With regard everything else it is pretty simple really,the West has industrialized over the 100 years or so, over that time the population has come to see how the system works.........

When has China ever said we will play fair, it is only our Western ideology that expects it to happen.

Even if Tesla is buying batteries from BYD (though I have not seen anything other than rumours to confirm this) this means nothing in regards to Tesla's battery advancement. Panasonic was building batteries for Tesla, under a Patent protection. Samsung build batteries for Apple under Patent.

The industrial revolution started in England during the early 1800's. China has had a very late start but, as you say, cheap labour has helped them grab much of the worlds required production of goods. Smart business minded Chinese officials created deals that allowed Western business to set up shop in China with an agreement to share technology.

China workers are now very well educated and accustomed to a high standard of living. Cheap labour is almost gone, now it is mechanisation and size that is their advantage.

We are in an unknow, many of the big western governments and manufacturers have pulled back from China, still dealing with them but much more cautiously.

Tesla have four gigafactories and plans to build more, the best China could do is to forcefully take over the China factory in the name of the people (communism).

Tesla is becoming a phenomena that we have not seen before. They don't advertise, yet they sell all their stock of vehicles. Tesla models do not have a body change every second year, instead they continually add improvements as soon as the engineers find one, constant 'over the air' software updates for free at home keep the cars software up to date and efficiency continually improving. Tesla have a satellite industry, offering anyone internet access, they have regular flights to space with a contract to NASA, and it doesn't stop there. Look up the insurance business, the biggest charging network in the world, the solar roof tiles, the battery back up system such as South Australia's, the glass business, artificial intelligence, work on a brain chip that has shown to give movement back to quadriplegic's.

China has no company that encompasses as much as Tesla.

The only threat to Tesla is China claiming the factory and banning sales.

Tesla could end up going bankrupt, but at the moment they are making strong profits and they have two factories about to open and build cars for many untapped nations in Europe. But lets say that they did go bankrupt, the company would not be sold as a whole, it would be broken up and the profitable sections sold off, the unprofitable closed forever and the technology leaked and sold to the highest bidders.

China is a threat but they know that their growth and prosperity is tied to the growth and prosperity of the rest of he world.

SpaceX Wins NASA $2.9 Billion Contract to Build Moon Lander (Published 2021)

Elon Musk’s company bested Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and others in the contest to carry American astronauts to the lunar surface.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Value Collector]

Yeah pop over to BHPs smelter in Kambalda for some fresh air....the nose bleeds are avoidable if you can get your mask on quick

Do you want to visit that smelter once in the life of your vehicle, or every week for the vehicles life, because as I said before we know making battery materials has an impact, but you only have to mine the battery materials once, and then they can be almost endlessly recycled, where as the oil you burn is refined every week.

 

[sptrawler]

Even if Tesla is buying batteries from BYD (though I have not seen anything other than rumours to confirm this) this means nothing in regards to Tesla's battery advancement. Panasonic was building batteries for Tesla, under a Patent protection. Samsung build batteries for Apple under Patent.

The industrial revolution started in England during the early 1800's. China has had a very late start but, as you say, cheap labour has helped them grab much of the worlds required production of goods. Smart business minded Chinese officials created deals that allowed Western business to set up shop in China with an agreement to share technology.

China workers are now very well educated and accustomed to a high standard of living. Cheap labour is almost gone, now it is mechanisation and size that is their advantage.

Chinese factory workers are paid a pittance compared to us, but to them it is a lot, because 20 years ago they earned nothing.

We are in an unknow, many of the big western governments and manufacturers have pulled back from China, still dealing with them but much more cautiously.

Tesla have four gigafactories and plans to build more, the best China could do is to forcefully take over the China factory in the name of the people (communism).

Tesla is becoming a phenomena that we have not seen before. They don't advertise, yet they sell all their stock of vehicles. Tesla models do not have a body change every second year, instead they continually add improvements as soon as the engineers find one, constant 'over the air' software updates for free at home keep the cars software up to date and efficiency continually improving. Tesla have a satellite industry, offering anyone internet access, they have regular flights to space with a contract to NASA, and it doesn't stop there. Look up the insurance business, the biggest charging network in the world, the solar roof tiles, the battery back up system such as South Australia's, the glass business, artificial intelligence, work on a brain chip that has shown to give movement back to quadriplegic's.

I don't think they will go broke, just get out of car manufacturing, there just wont be enough money in it.

China has no company that encompasses as much as Tesla.

The only threat to Tesla is China claiming the factory and banning sales.

Tesla could end up going bankrupt, but at the moment they are making strong profits and they have two factories about to open and build cars for many untapped nations in Europe. But lets say that they did go bankrupt, the company would not be sold as a whole, it would be broken up and the profitable sections sold off, the unprofitable closed forever and the technology leaked and sold to the highest bidders.

China is a threat but they know that their growth and prosperity is tied to the growth and prosperity of the rest of he world.

You are assuming two things, first Tesla can stay ahead in quality of product and secondly most people will buy a Tesla over a similar vehicle at half the price, many ships have sunk sailing on that course.
The last generation of Chinese Haval vehicles hardly sold, they were junk, this year the new model is selling well. Hyundai showed how quickly market sentiment can be turned around.
I hope China doesn't shut down all other vehicle manufacturing, but IMO it will take a massive joint effort to stop them, especially when greed and profits come into it.

Haval sales up 90.3% in Australia, driven by H2 small SUV – PerformanceDrive

performancedrive.com.au

VFACTS: GWM Haval on an upward sales trajectory

With new products such as the GWM Ute, Haval H6, and Haval Jolion, this Chinese company's Australian operation is picking up steam.

www.carexpert.com.au

from the article:
The company ‘s star performer is the new 2021 GWM Ute 4×4, which found 747 owners in May to take its annual tally to 2386 units. These numbers equate to 4.2 per cent 4×4 ute market share in May and 3.0 per cent share year-to-date (YTD).

For a little more context, the GWM Ute’s standout May tally of 747 sales put it ahead of 4×4 versions of the Volkswagen Amarok (588), Toyota LandCruiser 70 (604), and supply-constrained LDV T60 (518).

 

[JohnDe]

Chinese factory workers are paid a pittance compared to us, but to them it is a lot, because 20 years ago they earned nothing.



I don't think they will go broke, just get out of car manufacturing, there just wont be enough money in it.



You are assuming two things, first Tesla can stay ahead in quality of product and secondly most people will buy a Tesla over a similar vehicle at half the price, many ships have sunk sailing on that course.
The last generation of Chinese Haval vehicles hardly sold, they were junk, this year the new model is selling well. Hyundai showed how quickly market sentiment can be turned around.
I hope China doesn't shut down all other vehicle manufacturing, but IMO it will take a massive joint effort to stop them, especially when greed and profits come into it.

Haval sales up 90.3% in Australia, driven by H2 small SUV – PerformanceDrive

performancedrive.com.au

VFACTS: GWM Haval on an upward sales trajectory

With new products such as the GWM Ute, Haval H6, and Haval Jolion, this Chinese company's Australian operation is picking up steam.

www.carexpert.com.au

from the article:
The company ‘s star performer is the new 2021 GWM Ute 4×4, which found 747 owners in May to take its annual tally to 2386 units. These numbers equate to 4.2 per cent 4×4 ute market share in May and 3.0 per cent share year-to-date (YTD).

For a little more context, the GWM Ute’s standout May tally of 747 sales put it ahead of 4×4 versions of the Volkswagen Amarok (588), Toyota LandCruiser 70 (604), and supply-constrained LDV T60 (518).

I think that you will find that the China average wage is a lot higher than you think.

Mercedes sell 50,000 cars per month in China. Tesla car sales in China was US $3.11 billion in the third quarter 2021.

Tesla is the company that everyone wants to work for. Engineers and software developers are moving from the big car group to Tesla because of the freedom from accountants, Tesla allow the engineers to design and invent rather than scrimp and save. There is a reason that Tesla did not suffer the chip shortage problem that every other manufacture has.

There are so many examples that I'd be typing here for an hour.

In simple terms, Tesla is where Ford was when they perfected the production line and took over the car world. Ford are more likely than not to survive the next 10 years, many others will not because they have left their development of EVs too late, and they have the added weigh of having to spend rare resources to keep combustion engine development until the near date of the ban on ICE vehicle in most of the developed world, including China.

Just have a look at the name of the investors buying Tesla shares, just about every major super fund and EFT.

"Tesla’s competitive advantage comes as a result of its dedicated emphasis on research and development (R&D). In fact, many of its rivals have admitted that Tesla’s electronics far surpass their own—a teardown revealed that its batteries and AI chips are roughly six years ahead of other industry giants such as Toyota and Volkswagen." Visual Capitalist

Tesla Motors Announces Senior Engineering and Manufacturing Executives | Tesla Australia

www.tesla.com

 

[rederob]

Even if Tesla is buying batteries from BYD (though I have not seen anything other than rumours to confirm this) this means nothing in regards to Tesla's battery advancement. Panasonic was building batteries for Tesla, under a Patent protection. Samsung build batteries for Apple under Patent.

BYD started as a company making mobile phone batteries, amongst other things, and is presently the 3rd largest battery manufacturer in the world. Tesla will progressively move to LFP batteries for its standard range cars irrespective of supplier.

We are in an unknow, many of the big western governments and manufacturers have pulled back from China, still dealing with them but much more cautiously.

China has a stream of most of the world's major companies flowing to it, if they are not already there. Tesla is the only automaker that exists independently in China, as all other automakers have had to enter into joint ventures with a Chinese partner. That in part explains Chinese access to latest automotive technologies.

Tesla have four gigafactories and plans to build more, the best China could do is to forcefully take over the China factory in the name of the people (communism).

BYD has 13 factories and plans to build many more, and presently has about 250000 employees on every continent except Africa (and Antarctica!). Apart from BYD industry observers reckon that battery factories are going up at the rate of one a week at the moment.

The only threat to Tesla is China claiming the factory and banning sales.

Tesla are fantastic, but they will have to rely on Shanghai to maintain a vehicle that remains affordable outside of America.
China has not done anything remotely close to America in terms of product bans that even extend beyond its national border. I see this as counterproductive from the USA as China is now investing hundreds of billions to play catchup in the areas it previously relied on from outside.

Tesla could end up going bankrupt, but at the moment they are making strong profits and they have two factories about to open and build cars for many untapped nations in Europe.

Won't happen in our lifetime. Tesla are on a profit margin near 30% compared to 10% or less for legacy automakers who appear unable to ever pay off their debt.
On the Chinese side of the equation the official line is that there needs to be mass consolidation in their auto industry as the +300 players is unsustainable.

China is a threat but they know that their growth and prosperity is tied to the growth and prosperity of the rest of he world.

Not really. If you want anything made fast and at scale, there is no viable option beyond China. China's internal market economy is a long way off mature and will ultimately be much greater than the USA and Europe combined. In 40 years time we might be saying the same about India. Perhaps unless Elon Musk runs for President and turns America back into its former self.

While Tesla is in a league of its own in terms of EV automaking and its US-based charging infrastructure, it's biggest competition as I see it will come through styling and price competitiveness. If I were Elon Musk I would not try to compete at the lower end of the market and instead improve the features of the present range so that the Mercs, Audis and BMWs of the world continue to look overpriced and underperforming.

 

[sptrawler]

@JohnDe I certainly hope you are right, the next 5 years will definitely confirm it one way or the other.

 

[tonkatruck]

Will always love my wagon, but what's the harm in owning a Tesla! lol

 

[sptrawler]

While on the subject of batteries, the federal Government has funded a company in Canberra to cycle home batteries, to record their performance over time. It has some interesting information.
The link below goes to the site, for those who are interested:

ITP Renewables | Energy experts. Trusted advice.

ITP Renewables - Over 40 years. 2500 projects. 150 countries. We are Australia’s longest-running renewable energy consultancy.

batterytestcentre.com.au

 

[JohnDe]

BYD started as a company making mobile phone batteries, amongst other things, and is presently the 3rd largest battery manufacturer in the world. Tesla will progressively move to LFP batteries for its standard range cars irrespective of supplier.

Is BYD supplying batteries o Tesla? I can find no credible source confirming any supply of batteries by BYD to Tesla. There is discussion and rumours.

"On 11 Jun, MIIT officially published 7th batch of models enlisted in “New Energy Vehicles Recommended for Promotion and Application Catalog” and Tesla’s LFP Model 3 officially showed its face.

Worth noticing is that MIC (Made In China) model with LG Chem battery has battery density at 145 Wh/kg, while imported base Model 3 carrying Panasonic NMC has density at 153 Wh/kg....." Moneyball


"Tesla currently uses LFP batteries from Chinese battery maker CATL in the Standard Range vehicles it makes at Shanghai." The Driven

"Tesla To Buy 45 GWh Of LFP Batteries From CATL
Citing a post by 36kr, Chinese website CnEVPost says Tesla has agreed to buy 45 GWh of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries from CATL to meet its expected demand for the Model 3 and Model Y in 2022. The Model 3 and Model Y are currently available with LFP batteries in their standard range versions, with the former having a 55 kWh battery and the latter a 60 kWh battery."

Tesla To Buy 45 GWh Of LFP Batteries From CATL - CleanTechnica

Tesla and CATL have struck a deal for 45 GWh of LFP batteries and are talking about more.

cleantechnica.com

 

[JohnDe]

LG Chem was the leading lithium-ion battery maker in between January and August 2020 with a market share of just around 26.5 percent. CATL ranked second with a market share of some 25.8 percent, followed by Panasonic with a market share of about 20.6 percent.

EV battery manufacturers 2023 | Statista

The largest lithium-ion battery companies worldwide were located in the Asian continent. China, South Korea, and Japan led the ranking in 2023.

www.statista.com

 

[JohnDe]

 

[Value Collector]

Is BYD supplying batteries o Tesla? I can find no credible source confirming any supply of batteries by BYD to Tesla. There is discussion and rumours.

"On 11 Jun, MIIT officially published 7th batch of models enlisted in “New Energy Vehicles Recommended for Promotion and Application Catalog” and Tesla’s LFP Model 3 officially showed its face.

Worth noticing is that MIC (Made In China) model with LG Chem battery has battery density at 145 Wh/kg, while imported base Model 3 carrying Panasonic NMC has density at 153 Wh/kg....." Moneyball


"Tesla currently uses LFP batteries from Chinese battery maker CATL in the Standard Range vehicles it makes at Shanghai." The Driven

"Tesla To Buy 45 GWh Of LFP Batteries From CATL
Citing a post by 36kr, Chinese website CnEVPost says Tesla has agreed to buy 45 GWh of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries from CATL to meet its expected demand for the Model 3 and Model Y in 2022. The Model 3 and Model Y are currently available with LFP batteries in their standard range versions, with the former having a 55 kWh battery and the latter a 60 kWh battery."

Tesla To Buy 45 GWh Of LFP Batteries From CATL - CleanTechnica

Tesla and CATL have struck a deal for 45 GWh of LFP batteries and are talking about more.

cleantechnica.com

Not sure, last I heard was their battery manufacturing was contracted to Panasonic, LG Chem and there was a Chinese company but I can't remember their name, being a Berkshire Hathaway share holder I would have probably remembered them mentioning BYD if I had heard it.

Of course Tesla is also ramping up their owned and operated battery facility too, but with such fast growth they need as many companies producing batteries as they can.

The highest Tech battery they have in their range are the ones they are going to be producing them selves, but they will be using all the batteries they can buy too, because they have so many vehicles and storage devices hitting the market.

 

[rederob]

View attachment 134014

Yes, you seem to be right.
I relied on a Google search result and the linked info was dated 2 December 2021:

A number of things I learned when digging deeper was that Lithium ternary batteries presently prevail over LFP in gross output; that BYD may be the only large manufacturer of LFP at the moment; and, that this space has changed the manufacturer's list order regularly over the past 5 years. Ford even has aspirations to be in the top ten by 2030!

 

[qldfrog]

Not too recent article 2019 shared from FMG thread

The "New Energy Economy": An Exercise in Magical Thinking

A movement has been growing for decades to replace hydrocarbons, which collectively supply 84% of the world’s energy. Energy expert, Mark Mills, explains why replacing hydrocarbons will not meet America's energy demands.

www.manhattan-institute.org

The part about the storage capacity of the total Tesla megafactory batteries vs total grid usage in US is scary if true.
And this is before moving to EVs

 

[qldfrog]

While on the subject of batteries, the federal Government has funded a company in Canberra to cycle home batteries, to record their performance over time. It has some interesting information.
The link below goes to the site, for those who are interested:

ITP Renewables | Energy experts. Trusted advice.

ITP Renewables - Over 40 years. 2500 projects. 150 countries. We are Australia’s longest-running renewable energy consultancy.

batterytestcentre.com.au

This is VERY interesting,go past the executive summary.
The ? overall review: most have serious issues needing replacement which is not great in term of having one at home.
Disappointed by Tesla..decent robustness but capacity falling imho too fast ..so not that great for cars in future?
Redflow technology looking great as capacity seems quite constant but heaps of issues..so could be wonderful if mature.
A must read i think for purchasers

 

[JohnDe]

Yes, you seem to be right.
I relied on a Google search result and the linked info was dated 2 December 2021:

A number of things I learned when digging deeper was that Lithium ternary batteries presently prevail over LFP in gross output; that BYD may be the only large manufacturer of LFP at the moment; and, that this space has changed the manufacturer's list order regularly over the past 5 years. Ford even has aspirations to be in the top ten by 2030!

Google is a very useful tool, it is also too loyal and will learn your search preferences and then give you the finds in the order that is organised for your preferences.
When am researching I try to find multiple sources and I rephrase question. I have also found that I get different results using a Microsoft PC and an Apple iMac, the iMac security is tighter and Google can’t track my searches as well as on the PC.

 

[qldfrog]

Renault Zoe electric car receives zero-star safety rating

The model – which was sold in Australia between 2017 and 2020 – is just the third vehicle ever to earn zero stars for safety.

www.drive.com.au

Outch
dead..but the green way