Electric cars?

[Value Collector]

I'm still not sold on evs. Multiple reasons.
Some of those reasons is the large scale adoption that needs to happen. I just can't see it happening at the moment due to issues with infrastructure and practicality.

I was arguing with someone on here back in I think 2017 - 2019 about how I thought it would take a decade to see large scale adoption. They argued it would be 2 years and evs were ready to go. I still don't see many of the concerns I had then being addressed now.

Even when we do hit numbers I can see a whole other set of problems opening up.

Certainly a lot has changed since 2017, The model 3 and Y have come out and dominated the market, in 2017 there was basically no public chargers, now you can drive all over the place using public chargers.

Which of your concerns from 2017 have not been met or in the process of being met.

 

[JohnDe]

Review in today’s AFR -

 

[mullokintyre]

Certainly a lot has changed since 2017, The model 3 and Y have come out and dominated the market, in 2017 there was basically no public chargers, now you can drive all over the place using public chargers.

Which of your concerns from 2017 have not been met or in the process of being met.

of course if you bought a REAL EV like a BYD Atto 3 you could use V2L to power your home from your electric car battery, unlike those so old school Teslas which lack the inverter for V2l.
Is there one of those emotive things that equates to a smirk?
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

2023 model discounts now available, the discount EVs are continuing onto the market.

 

[Value Collector]

of course if you bought a REAL EV like a BYD Atto 3 you could use V2L to power your home from your electric car battery, unlike those so old school Teslas which lack the inverter for V2l.
Is there one of those emotive things that equates to a smirk?
Mick

Sorry Mick, Some of the Electric cars offer "bidirectional charging" but I don't believe they can power your home if there is a black out in the same way as a Tesla power wall can. The car will let you draw power from the car at night etc to power your home, but only if the grid is operating.

I believe once you lose the grid connection, the car is no longer able to power your house through your connection or accept charge from the solar panels, once you lose grid connection your home is basically switched off. You can use the power points in the car and some extension leads though.

However, if you have a Tesla power wall you can basically run your house without a grid connection during the black out, and when the sun comes up on your solar panels do some higher usage things like charge your car. The reason for this is that the house has to have a way to isolate itself from the grid, which requires external switches to be fitted to the house, to prevent your house electrocuting workmen working on repairing the grid.

 

[mullokintyre]

Sorry Mick, Some of the Electric cars offer "bidirectional charging" but I don't believe they can power your home if there is a black out in the same way as a Tesla power wall can.

Why is it that everything has to be Tesla?
Are you not aware of the myriad battery supply systems out there, some of which are technically superior to Tesla powerwall?

The car will let you draw power from the car at night etc to power your home, but only if the grid is operating.

You need to talk to an electrician to update your "belief".
What you said makes no sense, why would you draw pwoer from the car to the car at night?

I believe once you lose the grid connection, the car is no longer able to power your house through your connection or accept charge from the solar panels, once you lose grid connection your home is basically switched off. You can use the power points in the car and some extension leads though.

That is entirely dependent on how its wired in.
Systems such as natures generator 12 iorcuit switches allow grid, backup generator, or a vehicle equipeed with V2l to feed into the house.
there is a video going around that I cannot find showing a Ford Lightning powering a house using V2l.
The only limitation is the capacity of the inverter in the vehicle.

However, if you have a Tesla power wall you can basically run your house without a grid connection during the black out, and when the sun comes up on your solar panels do some higher usage things like charge your car. The reason for this is that the house has to have a way to isolate itself from the grid, which requires external switches to be fitted to the house, to prevent your house electrocuting workmen working on repairing the grid.

Buying a V2L capable vehicle is a hell of a lot heaper than buying solar panels, inverters and a set of batteries.
Technically, you could install a backup batteries without a set of panels if you wanted to.
It depends entirely on how long you want backup to be available.
When I set mine up, there is switching capability for attaching a DC generator to the system to keep the batteries charged if there is an extended grid failure and its really overcast or nightime.
Depends on your requirements, your budget, what level of redundancy you want.
And it does not all have to be made by Tesla.
Mick

Mick

 

[SirRumpole]

Ammonia powered cars catching up with EV's ?

 

[JohnDe]

Ammonia powered cars catching up with EV's ?

How many have they sold?

 

[SirRumpole]

How many have they sold?

Not many yet i'd say, but who knows? Lithium is a non renewable material

 

[Value Collector]

1. Why is it that everything has to be Tesla?
Are you not aware of the myriad battery supply systems out there, some of which are technically superior to Tesla powerwall?

2. You need to talk to an electrician to update your "belief".
What you said makes no sense, why would you draw pwoer from the car to the car at night?

That is entirely dependent on how its wired in.
Systems such as natures generator 12 iorcuit switches allow grid, backup generator, or a vehicle equipeed with V2l to feed into the house.
there is a video going around that I cannot find showing a Ford Lightning powering a house using V2l.
The only limitation is the capacity of the inverter in the vehicle.

Buying a V2L capable vehicle is a hell of a lot heaper than buying solar panels, inverters and a set of batteries.
Technically, you could install a backup batteries without a set of panels if you wanted to.
It depends entirely on how long you want backup to be available.
When I set mine up, there is switching capability for attaching a DC generator to the system to keep the batteries charged if there is an extended grid failure and its really overcast or nightime.
Depends on your requirements, your budget, what level of redundancy you want.
And it does not all have to be made by Tesla.
Mick

Mick

1. This is the electric car thread and I was replying to a person saying black outs might be bad for electric cars, and Tesla is a car manufacturer who also makes batteries, Also I don't personally know much about any of the other battery systems, but feel free to share your thoughts on the others.

2. you misunderstood what I am saying have another read, I said the car will let you draw power from the car to power your home, but only when the grid is still connected, not during a power outage

3. You seem a bit confused about costs and why you buy things -

a. You buy solar panels because you want to get electricity cheaper than you can get it from the grid​

​

b. You buy a battery so that you can save some of this power to use at night rather than expensive grid imports.​

c. The above system has the side benefit of seamlessly providing you with power indefinitely if the grid goes out, its not the main reason but it's a great side benefit, and it pays for itself over time, where as a back up generator does not pay for itself, and requires more maintenance and fuel.​

​

Why are you triggered by me mentioning the Tesla Branded equipment?​

​

 

[Value Collector]

Ammonia powered cars catching up with EV's ?

That would be fantastic for my FMG shares, However for cars its not really practical for 2 reasons.

1. It requires you to produce a large amount of electricity, and then lose about 50% of the energy in the process of converting it to ammonia. But why not just use that electricity to charge cars batteries directly.

2. Why would I want to start attending refuelling stations again, when I am so used to just charging my car in my garage using my own electricity? You then have all the normal heat loses of an Internal combustion engine, where you lose another 70%.

if I switched to an ammonia car I would end up having to sell my excess electricity back to the gris for pennies, and then drive my car down to the petrol station every week and hand over $50-$100 at a time. I think I would prefer just using my own electricity.

But for ships, planes, Trains and Trucks maybe there is a market.

 

[Value Collector]

Not many yet i'd say, but who knows? Lithium is a non renewable material

Lithium is fairly abundant, and it’s recyclable, so it might not be renewable, but it’s practically infinite.

also, lithium batteries are just one type of battery, who knows how many different types of batteries can be invented utilising different materials.

 

[Smurf1976]

But for ships, planes, Trains and Trucks maybe there is a market.

Farm use is another where electric's problematic and some sort of chemical approach has a lot of potential.

 

[SirRumpole]

Lithium is fairly abundant, and it’s recyclable, so it might not be renewable, but it’s practically infinite.

also, lithium batteries are just one type of battery, who knows how many different types of batteries can be invented utilising different materials.

Anything dug out of the ground is non renewable. It would be good to gave an ammonia industry as an alternative, also considering that ammonia is a component of fertiliser a lot of which we import.

 

[Value Collector]

Anything dug out of the ground is non renewable. It would be good to gave an ammonia industry as an alternative, also considering that ammonia is a component of fertiliser a lot of which we import.

FMG are already working on Ammonia production for their trains and ships.

As I said yes its "Technically" non renewable (although it kind of is because it doesn't get destroyed), but once we have it in the system it can be basically recycled endlessly, and there is no shortage of the stuff, it can even be recovered from ground water and sea water, there are already mines that produce lithium by pumping water out of the ground.

And, as I also said lithium is just one battery technology, in a 1000 year if we run short of lithium we can switch to different batteries.

Check out this video showing how lithium is pulled out of ground water, over long periods of time rain water that falls on the mountains and flows back into the ground water does top up the lithium in the ground water again, So it is kinda renewable, but as I said the recycling process makes it renewable in itself.

 

[sptrawler]

Canada is going full steam ( I mean full electrons) ahead with driving EV uptake, one does wonder if it will be another example of reality catching up with ideology.
Time will tell, we use that phrase a lot these days, as we venture into the unknown.

https://www.mining.com/canadas-ambitious-ev-targets-cant-be-met-without-more-support-for-mine-supply/

From the article:
The Canadian government continues to forge ahead with new regulations for curbing and eventually ending sales of gas-powered vehicles. Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard published in mid-December calls for 100% zero-emissions vehicles (ZEV) by 2035.
Under the new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, auto manufacturers and importers must meet annual ZEV regulated sales targets. The targets begin for the 2026 model year, with a requirement that at least 20% of new light-duty vehicles offered for sale in that year be ZEVs. The requirements increase annually to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
This is only one part of the government’s ambitious 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan put in place in 2022. The plan targets emissions reductions of 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

These ambitious goals are similar to other countries. The United States aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. The European Union targets reducing emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. Even China has set the goal to increase renewable energy as the primary source of energy consumption from current levels of around 15% to 25% by 2030 — and pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

These goals are admirable, but the reality is that meeting them will require more critical minerals than are currently in the production pipeline.

To meet international EV adoption targets, the world will need 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines and 17 new cobalt mines by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Cathode materials, anode materials and battery cells will also require additional raw material, adding up to about 388 new mines, it says.

Geopolitics, namely tensions between the US and China and the West and Russia, have introduced new supply risks as global trade splinters. But even friendly nations could present supply risks caused by changing political landscapes, social unrest, or civil wars. For example, unrest in Mexico, Peru and Chile has led to strikes and temporary mine closures. While geopolitical risks are top of mind, the main supply constraint for critical minerals remains the need for increased mine production along with new infrastructure to refine the minerals, a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) found last year (Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Metals).

To compound the problem, the recent decline in battery metal prices is further delaying mining projects due to lack of capital. Lithium prices have plummeted more than 80%, while other battery metal inputs, such as cobalt, nickel, and graphite are down more than 30%. If prices don’t recover, it will deepen shortages of materials in the coming years, putting the brakes on governments’ ambitious agendas to decarbonize their economies.

Analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence (June 2023) reports that the global average lead times for mine development from discovery to production is 15.7 years, and in Canada this timeline is about nearly 26 months longer.

Investor interest in mining is currently very low partly because of the long-time horizon and the uncertainty that exploration stage projects will be economically viable.

 

[SirRumpole]

Canada is going full steam ( I mean full electrons) ahead with driving EV uptake, one does wonder if it will be another example of reality catching up with ideology.
Time will tell, we use that phrase a lot these days, as we venture into the unknown.

https://www.mining.com/canadas-ambitious-ev-targets-cant-be-met-without-more-support-for-mine-supply/

From the article:
The Canadian government continues to forge ahead with new regulations for curbing and eventually ending sales of gas-powered vehicles. Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard published in mid-December calls for 100% zero-emissions vehicles (ZEV) by 2035.
Under the new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, auto manufacturers and importers must meet annual ZEV regulated sales targets. The targets begin for the 2026 model year, with a requirement that at least 20% of new light-duty vehicles offered for sale in that year be ZEVs. The requirements increase annually to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
This is only one part of the government’s ambitious 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan put in place in 2022. The plan targets emissions reductions of 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

These ambitious goals are similar to other countries. The United States aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. The European Union targets reducing emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. Even China has set the goal to increase renewable energy as the primary source of energy consumption from current levels of around 15% to 25% by 2030 — and pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

These goals are admirable, but the reality is that meeting them will require more critical minerals than are currently in the production pipeline.

To meet international EV adoption targets, the world will need 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines and 17 new cobalt mines by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Cathode materials, anode materials and battery cells will also require additional raw material, adding up to about 388 new mines, it says.

Geopolitics, namely tensions between the US and China and the West and Russia, have introduced new supply risks as global trade splinters. But even friendly nations could present supply risks caused by changing political landscapes, social unrest, or civil wars. For example, unrest in Mexico, Peru and Chile has led to strikes and temporary mine closures. While geopolitical risks are top of mind, the main supply constraint for critical minerals remains the need for increased mine production along with new infrastructure to refine the minerals, a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) found last year (Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Metals).

To compound the problem, the recent decline in battery metal prices is further delaying mining projects due to lack of capital. Lithium prices have plummeted more than 80%, while other battery metal inputs, such as cobalt, nickel, and graphite are down more than 30%. If prices don’t recover, it will deepen shortages of materials in the coming years, putting the brakes on governments’ ambitious agendas to decarbonize their economies.

Analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence (June 2023) reports that the global average lead times for mine development from discovery to production is 15.7 years, and in Canada this timeline is about nearly 26 months longer.

Investor interest in mining is currently very low partly because of the long-time horizon and the uncertainty that exploration stage projects will be economically viable.

Governments trying to mandate outcomes is always concerning.

EVs have to be shown to be competitive with ICE vehicles in ways that are important to consumers (including price) rather than forcing a particular outcome on the public.

Although the decision will be popular with the Green Nazis, the rest of the population may have other ideas

 

[sptrawler]

Governments trying to mandate outcomes is always concerning.

EVs have to be shown to be competitive with ICE vehicles in ways that are important to consumers (including price) rather than forcing a particular outcome on the public.

Although the decision will be popular with the Green Nazis, the rest of the population may have other ideas

Yes I tend to think the Toyota head honcho has got a pretty realistic outlook on the EV scene.
Not every country has the same requirement and or energy attributes, so I think it will end up a mixed bag from one country to the next.

https://www.drive.com.au/news/akio-toyoda-ev-only-30-per-cent-of-new-car-sales/

The chairman of Toyota predicts electric vehicles will only ever make up 30 per cent of global new-car sales.
Akio Toyoda, chairman and former CEO of Toyota, told the audience at a business event he believes hybrid, hydrogen fuel-cell, and hydrogen combustion engines will form the other 70 per cent of the market, according to company magazine Toyota Times.
Mr Toyoda said the solution to "climb the mountain of carbon neutrality is related to each country's energy situation".

"However, one billion people around the world live in areas without electricity. In the case of Toyota, we also supply vehicles to these regions, so a single [battery-electric vehicle] option cannot provide transportation for everyone," he said in the translated speech.
"That's why I try to have a variety of options [within Toyota's line-up]."

 

[Value Collector]

Canada is going full steam ( I mean full electrons) ahead with driving EV uptake, one does wonder if it will be another example of reality catching up with ideology.
Time will tell, we use that phrase a lot these days, as we venture into the unknown.

https://www.mining.com/canadas-ambitious-ev-targets-cant-be-met-without-more-support-for-mine-supply/

From the article:
The Canadian government continues to forge ahead with new regulations for curbing and eventually ending sales of gas-powered vehicles. Canada’s Electric Vehicle Availability Standard published in mid-December calls for 100% zero-emissions vehicles (ZEV) by 2035.
Under the new Electric Vehicle Availability Standard, auto manufacturers and importers must meet annual ZEV regulated sales targets. The targets begin for the 2026 model year, with a requirement that at least 20% of new light-duty vehicles offered for sale in that year be ZEVs. The requirements increase annually to 60% by 2030 and 100% by 2035.
This is only one part of the government’s ambitious 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan put in place in 2022. The plan targets emissions reductions of 40% below 2005 levels by 2030 and net-zero emissions by 2050.

These ambitious goals are similar to other countries. The United States aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% below 2005 levels by 2030. The European Union targets reducing emissions by at least 55% below 1990 levels by 2030. Even China has set the goal to increase renewable energy as the primary source of energy consumption from current levels of around 15% to 25% by 2030 — and pledged to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.

These goals are admirable, but the reality is that meeting them will require more critical minerals than are currently in the production pipeline.

To meet international EV adoption targets, the world will need 50 new lithium mines, 60 new nickel mines and 17 new cobalt mines by 2030, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Cathode materials, anode materials and battery cells will also require additional raw material, adding up to about 388 new mines, it says.

Geopolitics, namely tensions between the US and China and the West and Russia, have introduced new supply risks as global trade splinters. But even friendly nations could present supply risks caused by changing political landscapes, social unrest, or civil wars. For example, unrest in Mexico, Peru and Chile has led to strikes and temporary mine closures. While geopolitical risks are top of mind, the main supply constraint for critical minerals remains the need for increased mine production along with new infrastructure to refine the minerals, a report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IREA) found last year (Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Metals).

To compound the problem, the recent decline in battery metal prices is further delaying mining projects due to lack of capital. Lithium prices have plummeted more than 80%, while other battery metal inputs, such as cobalt, nickel, and graphite are down more than 30%. If prices don’t recover, it will deepen shortages of materials in the coming years, putting the brakes on governments’ ambitious agendas to decarbonize their economies.

Analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence (June 2023) reports that the global average lead times for mine development from discovery to production is 15.7 years, and in Canada this timeline is about nearly 26 months longer.

Investor interest in mining is currently very low partly because of the long-time horizon and the uncertainty that exploration stage projects will be economically viable.

I was in Canada last year, was surprised at the large numbers of Ev’s. it’s makes sense there, they have huge renewable electricity supply, and would allow them to export more oil.

 

[sptrawler]

I was in Canada last year, was surprised at the large numbers of Ev’s. it’s makes sense there, they have huge renewable electricity supply, and would allow them to export more oil.

I'll be there in May, so it will be interesting to see how it compares with Perth.