Electric cars?

[mullokintyre]

Drive has alist of the top selling electric vehicles.
The top 3 sellers accounted for over 2/3 of the total sales.
And the top six sellers were all made in China.
But the interesting thing is the trend over the past three quarters.
Except for the new entrant MG 4, which had a large increase, most of the other players went backwards in the last quarter.
Indeed the top 3 sellers all declined in both Q2 and Q3, and the tesla model 3 has declined in all the last three quarters.
If that trend continues, 2024 will struggle to equal 2023 for sales, much less continue the EV sale momentum.
Mick

 

[Smurf1976]

Indeed the top 3 sellers all declined in both Q2 and Q3, and the tesla model 3 has declined in all the last three quarters.
If that trend continues, 2024 will struggle to equal 2023 for sales, much less continue the EV sale momentum.

A question there is to what extent is that about EV's and to what extent is a reflection of broader economic and consumer spending issues?

 

[qldfrog]

A question there is to what extent is that about EV's and to what extent is a reflection of broader economic and consumer spending issues?

Interestingly. no mention anymore of supply? If you want one, you can get one
We might just see the end of the early adopters and fashionista phase, and now need to check ROI / value for money and functionality.
ROI... Investment for a new car being a very twisted term EV or ICE either..

 

[mullokintyre]

A question there is to what extent is that about EV's and to what extent is a reflection of broader economic and consumer spending issues?

According to VFACTS ,

The total vehicle sales for 2023 at 1.2 million was the highest on record, increasing by 12.5% over 2022.

Severe shipping delays were also caused by quarantine backlogs at almost all Australian arrival ports during the first half of last year, which once cleared contributed to a string of record monthly sales results.

An incredible six out of the seven months from May to November were all-time highs, while December’s 98,544-unit result (+12.1%) was 4300 short of the monthly record set in 2017.

Industry leaders are expecting supply to normalise further during 2024 as customer orders are fulfilled and demand eases amid ongoing inflationary pressures and challenging economic conditions in general.

So another record sales year is unlikely but a buoyant market is still expected, settling back to pre-COVID levels of around one million units per annum.

That would suggest that non EV sales were going up over the last quarter.
The Ev's are generally more expensive, but the top selling Ford Ranger comes in at anywhere from 45k for a base model xl up to 97,000 fro the top of the line Wildtrack bi turbo or 3.0l Platinum.
Hardly cheap cars.
As the article says, supply issues, model changes, and internal factors like taxation incentives can see type sales vary considerably from year to year.
Mick

 

[boofhead]

Does it include sales without deliveries? I am aware of someone that ordered a Ford Transit a year ago. Still not delivered. Apparently at one point the ship made it to Australia but it had an insect on it so it was sent elsewhere to be treated.

 

[Value Collector]

Interestingly. no mention anymore of supply? If you want one, you can get one
We might just see the end of the early adopters and fashionista phase, and now need to check ROI / value for money and functionality.
ROI... Investment for a new car being a very twisted term EV or ICE either..

Look at the wait list for Tesla Cyber truck, nearly 2 Million deposits have be paid, place your order now and you might have your truck in 5 years.

 

[Value Collector]

ROI... Investment for a new car being a very twisted term EV or ICE either..

I guess you would calculate the return on investment in a similar way to you would on something like your home.

for a home you compare the cost of owner ship vs the cost renting a similar property While allowing for personal factors like freedom etc.

when assessing whether your vehicle purchase return on investment, you would compare the cost of ownership (purchase price, rego, maintenance fuel insurance) etc to the cost of public transport and using Ubers or taxis, plus adding in what the dollar value of the freedom of ownership is worth to you personally.

based on my calculations the cost of ownership of an EV held till maturity (end of its life) will be a lot less than a similar ICE Vehicle.

 

[qldfrog]

Does it include sales without deliveries? I am aware of someone that ordered a Ford Transit a year ago. Still not delivered. Apparently at one point the ship made it to Australia but it had an insect on it so it was sent elsewhere to be treated.

Sounds like a car salesman BS

 

[farmerge]

Planning on leaving Paynesville to head off over the Alpine way to home in the Goulburn valley.
unfortunately, just checking before we leave and find out that the chargefox chargers in Omeo are out of action, which now makes it marginal an going across the shortest way.
so now we will have to go back via Melbourne.
pity, would have enjoyed the drive over the top.
mick

So Mick no chargers working in the country area. Was a point I raised recently.

 

[mullokintyre]

So Mick no chargers working in the country area. Was a point I raised recently.

Chargers lack reliability whether they are in cities or in regional areas.
The main charging station we frequent on the outskirts of Melbourne when we travel down there is out of action ten to 15% of the time.
It is of particular interest if planning on a stop somewhere on a longish trip where an intermediate charger is out of action, and you don't have enough charge to get to the next one, or return to the last one.
There are some chargers in country areas.
But the problem is the distance between them if you are not driving on the Hume.
Even the Princess highway heading to East Gippsland is not well serviced.
The other issue is that in the current holiday period, there are a lot more cars about, and so the waiting times at some chargers has increased a fair bit.
Mick

 

[Knobby22]

Tesla saw its Australia sales reach 46,116 units in 2023, effectively beating BYD, which sold 12,438 units during the year. For context, Australia’s best-selling vehicle in 2023 was the Ford Ranger, with sales of 63,356 units.​

Didn't realise Buffett was a major BYD investor back in 2008, but is selling down his stake to 10%. Has made big money (of course).

"Elon Musk's Tesla has been overtaken by its Chinese rival, BYD, as the world's top selling electric carmaker. BYD, which has been backed by the US investment billionaire Warren Buffett since 2008, has beaten Tesla's production for a second consecutive year.5 days ago"

 

[JohnDe]

Chargers lack reliability whether they are in cities or in regional areas.
The main charging station we frequent on the outskirts of Melbourne when we travel down there is out of action ten to 15% of the time.
It is of particular interest if planning on a stop somewhere on a longish trip where an intermediate charger is out of action, and you don't have enough charge to get to the next one, or return to the last one.
There are some chargers in country areas.
But the problem is the distance between them if you are not driving on the Hume.
Even the Princess highway heading to East Gippsland is not well serviced.
The other issue is that in the current holiday period, there are a lot more cars about, and so the waiting times at some chargers has increased a fair bit.
Mick

We are at the same place that combustion engine vehicles were in the early twentieth century. The difference is that we have a larger industrial base.

My business is involved in the automotive industry, I purchased an EV as a tool to learn and teach my staff. I chose the Tesla because there wasn’t much choice, and their charging infrastructure was the best. I have traveled across the country and experienced the best and worst of charging infrastructure, and found that the competition is miles behind Tesla. However, I can see from industry sources that it is not that far behind.
People like you and me are the explorers of a new era.

 

[farmerge]

Chargers lack reliability whether they are in cities or in regional areas.
The main charging station we frequent on the outskirts of Melbourne when we travel down there is out of action ten to 15% of the time.
It is of particular interest if planning on a stop somewhere on a longish trip where an intermediate charger is out of action, and you don't have enough charge to get to the next one, or return to the last one.
There are some chargers in country areas.
But the problem is the distance between them if you are not driving on the Hume.
Even the Princess highway heading to East Gippsland is not well serviced.
The other issue is that in the current holiday period, there are a lot more cars about, and so the waiting times at some chargers has increased a fair bit.
Mick

Unfortunately Mick, that is one massive downside side with the EV industry.

 

[qldfrog]

We are at the same place that combustion engine vehicles were in the early twentieth century. The difference is that we have a larger industrial base.

My business is involved in the automotive industry, I purchased an EV as a tool to learn and teach my staff. I chose the Tesla because there wasn’t much choice, and their charging infrastructure was the best. I have traveled across the country and experienced the best and worst of charging infrastructure, and found that the competition is miles behind Tesla. However, I can see from industry sources that it is not that far behind.
People like you and me are the explorers of a new era.

as were LPG conversion cars maybe:
initially: early adopters, then only a select few niches made it worthwhile, then slow death?
Until it becomes a good return on investment comparatively, we will see it stall.
.but taxes and subsidies can change that we all agree
and an inherently bad or worse technical solution can be forced/pushed for whatever agenda the powers in charge desire

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article on the affect electric scooters are having on oil consumption.
Another enlightening fact is the actual state of play in Norway, that puts the EV situation there in perspective.


https://www.drive.com.au/news/e-sco...m.au&utm_content=article_4&utm_medium=partner
From the article:
Electric scooters are reducing demand for oil by 1 million barrels a day – almost equivalent to Australia’s daily consumption – according to reports by news and feature website The Conversation, and news agency Bloomberg.
The reports estimate that uptake of electric scooters in countries such as China – where they are a more common form of transport, and legal in all regions of the country – has seen them reduce demand for oil four times faster than electric cars and trucks.
It cites the number of four-wheeled, battery-powered vehicles on the world’s roads – around 20 million passenger vehicles and 1.3 million commercial electric buses, delivery vans and trucks in 2022 – paling in comparison to the staggering 280 million e-scooters and electric motorcycles being ridden.
The sheer number of electric two- and three-wheelers has seen a fall in appetite by one million barrels a day, equating to an estimated one per cent of global daily demands.
Australia’s daily oil consumption rate in September 2023, according to data platform Knoema, was 1,058,000 barrels.
According to a report by Ernst and Young published in November 2023, 3.6 million Australians used an electric scooter in 2022.

The relatively small number of electric cars on Australia’s roads – making up 7.2 per cent of total new vehicle sales in 2023, and a lower percentage of the total vehicle fleet – means they may not have made any discernible, long-term impact on oil consumption here.

In contrast, Norway is a world leader in electric-vehicle sales, with 80 per cent of new cars sold there in 2021 being electric. Yet according to Forbes, demand for petrol and diesel in the country has declined a modest 10 per cent since 2017, to 62,000 barrels a day.
Part of the relatively minimal impact on oil consumption in the Scandinavian country may be attributed to the small footprint of electric vehicles there, with three million cars on its roads, of which only 500,000 are electric.

 

[Value Collector]

Didn't realise Buffett was a major BYD investor back in 2008, but is selling down his stake to 10%. Has made big money (of course).

"Elon Musk's Tesla has been overtaken by its Chinese rival, BYD, as the world's top selling electric carmaker. BYD, which has been backed by the US investment billionaire Warren Buffett since 2008, has beaten Tesla's production for a second consecutive year.5 days ago"

It was Charlie’s Idea, he fought tooth and nail to get Warren to buy in, Hahaha.

 

[qldfrog]

Interesting article on the affect electric scooters are having on oil consumption.
Another enlightening fact is the actual state of play in Norway, that puts the EV situation there in perspective.


https://www.drive.com.au/news/e-sco...m.au&utm_content=article_4&utm_medium=partner
From the article:
Electric scooters are reducing demand for oil by 1 million barrels a day – almost equivalent to Australia’s daily consumption – according to reports by news and feature website The Conversation, and news agency Bloomberg.
The reports estimate that uptake of electric scooters in countries such as China – where they are a more common form of transport, and legal in all regions of the country – has seen them reduce demand for oil four times faster than electric cars and trucks.
It cites the number of four-wheeled, battery-powered vehicles on the world’s roads – around 20 million passenger vehicles and 1.3 million commercial electric buses, delivery vans and trucks in 2022 – paling in comparison to the staggering 280 million e-scooters and electric motorcycles being ridden.
The sheer number of electric two- and three-wheelers has seen a fall in appetite by one million barrels a day, equating to an estimated one per cent of global daily demands.
Australia’s daily oil consumption rate in September 2023, according to data platform Knoema, was 1,058,000 barrels.
According to a report by Ernst and Young published in November 2023, 3.6 million Australians used an electric scooter in 2022.

The relatively small number of electric cars on Australia’s roads – making up 7.2 per cent of total new vehicle sales in 2023, and a lower percentage of the total vehicle fleet – means they may not have made any discernible, long-term impact on oil consumption here.

In contrast, Norway is a world leader in electric-vehicle sales, with 80 per cent of new cars sold there in 2021 being electric. Yet according to Forbes, demand for petrol and diesel in the country has declined a modest 10 per cent since 2017, to 62,000 barrels a day.
Part of the relatively minimal impact on oil consumption in the Scandinavian country may be attributed to the small footprint of electric vehicles there, with three million cars on its roads, of which only 500,000 are electric.

Once again the issue is Australian regulation.a small scooter electric in china is around $500, no real need for help.et ..you drive where..it goes no driving lessons or tricky expensive school and tests..
But but but......yes it works and helps to sort the Darwin challengers

 

[JohnDe]

The end of passenger Diesel engines?

Engine manufacturer Cummins will pay a $1.67 billion fine for emissions cheating with diesel engines in Ram pickup trucks.​

​

The fine settles a case brought by the U.S. Justice Department and the State of California claiming Cummins violated the Clean Air Act by installing so-called defeat devices that allowed its diesel engines to cheat emissions tests. It's the largest civil penalty ever secured....The defeat devices were allegedly installed on 630,000 engines in 2013 to 2019 Ram 2500 and 3500 pickups, according to a Justice Department press release. The settlement also covers "undisclosed auxiliary emission control devices" allegedly installed on 330,000 engines in Ram 2500 and 3500 trucks from model years 2019 to 2023. "The types of devices we allege that Cummins installed in its engines to cheat federal environmental laws have a significant and harmful impact on people’s health and safety," Garland said, adding that these engines emit "thousands of tons of excess emissions of nitrogen oxides."​

 

[Value Collector]

Didn't realise Buffett was a major BYD investor back in 2008, but is selling down his stake to 10%. Has made big money (of course).

"Elon Musk's Tesla has been overtaken by its Chinese rival, BYD, as the world's top selling electric carmaker. BYD, which has been backed by the US investment billionaire Warren Buffett since 2008, has beaten Tesla's production for a second consecutive year.5 days ago"

Here is a great video of Charlie Munger from 2009 (15 years ago), talking about why he likes BYD so much, he also gives a little brief history of the company.

Charlie begins talking about BYD at the 50 second mark.

@mullokintyre also in this video, the first 50 seconds is Warren talking about people that say growth stocks and value stocks are different things, I remember we had a discussion about that a while back where you were saying growth stocks are not value stocks, I think you might be interested in what Warren says here, it’s basically what I was trying to explain to your at the time.

 

[Value Collector]

@Knobby22 here is Warren explaining how Charlie convinced him to invest in BYD, hahaha.