Electric cars?

[Value Collector]

One of the things I have noticed is how quickly the solar output levels deterirates on overcast days, and we haven't even hit winter yet.
If I was going full off grid, I would probably want to double everything I have in terms of panels and battery, especially if you plan to to charge an EV at home.Our system is more than adequate to cover the usage of between 11 to 20 KW a day, but vringing in an EV that may take 40 or more KWhrs to charge is a whole new ball game.
Mick

I think economically it’s better to stay on the grid, the huge extra cost involved in doubling your battery and generation capacity along with the loss of the ability to sell excess production far out weighs the $1 per day cost of maintaining a grid connection.

Even if your goal is to become energy independent, and you wanted to double your capacity, that would cause you to have a lot of excess production on sunny days, the ability to sell that would be worth more than $1 per day.

Also, I believe you are from Victoria, you guys often generate loads of wind power at night, I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually you get really good deals for night time charging down there.

 

[SirRumpole]

I think economically it’s better to stay on the grid, the huge extra cost involved in doubling your battery and generation capacity along with the loss of the ability to sell excess production far out weighs the $1 per day cost of maintaining a grid connection.

Probably more appropriate in another thread, but this is the exact problem affecting the wider grid.

Relying on renewables without sufficient storage (has to be hydro, batteries won't do it), or peaking gas turbines will mean that the lights will go out at inconvenient times ; eg the middle of winter when everyone comes home from work and school and put their heaters on and start cooking dinner.

We just have to get people like Adam Bandt out of the process of designing power grids and put it in the hands of experts otherwise the Dark Ages are not over.

Rant over.

 

[mullokintyre]

I think economically it’s better to stay on the grid, the huge extra cost involved in doubling your battery and generation capacity along with the loss of the ability to sell excess production far out weighs the $1 per day cost of maintaining a grid connection.

Even if your goal is to become energy independent, and you wanted to double your capacity, that would cause you to have a lot of excess production on sunny days, the ability to sell that would be worth more than $1 per day.

Also, I believe you are from Victoria, you guys often generate loads of wind power at night, I wouldn’t be surprised if eventually you get really good deals for night time charging down there.

It will never stack up economically as Dan the man controls how much we get for selling back to the grid, which is 4.4 cents per KW versus the 24 cents per Kwhr (soon to be 32 cent per KWHR) that we pay to get the power. And that of course assumes that the grid wants it, which is not always the case.
But what it does give is security, something that is not guaranteed by the grid.
Thats is what I paid for, and more than happy with it.
The system records the blackouts and brown outs we have had since we installed it, and given the idealogical stupidity of power generaion in Australia in general, Victoria in particular, i fully expect to have more of these events.
Had a visit last night from a flying mate who is about to build a house on a block he bought out of town the Powercor quote to provide him with three phase power was $100,000, so he is looking at what options he has to go off grid, and was looking at our setup.
He is obviously not your average customer, but as we know, there is no such thing as the average person.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

Probably more appropriate in another thread, but this is the exact problem affecting the wider grid.

Relying on renewables without sufficient storage (has to be hydro, batteries won't do it), or peaking gas turbines will mean that the lights will go out at inconvenient times ; eg the middle of winter when everyone comes home from work and school and put their heaters on and start cooking dinner.

We just have to get people like Adam Bandt out of the process of designing power grids and put it in the hands of experts otherwise the Dark Ages are not over.

Rant over.

Lots of brains with capital working on it, it will be a combination of Batteries (both home, vehicle and grid size), hydro and as you mentioned gas peaking plants.

This is the prediction for electricity deman growth and the most likely sources. The Red is the on demand storage and gas etc.

 

[Value Collector]

It will never stack up economically as Dan the man controls how much we get for selling back to the grid, which is 4.4 cents per KW versus the 24 cents per Kwhr (soon to be 32 cent per KWHR) that we pay to get the power. And that of course assumes that the grid wants it, which is not always the case.
But what it does give is security, something that is not guaranteed by the grid.
Thats is what I paid for, and more than happy with it.
The system records the blackouts and brown outs we have had since we installed it, and given the idealogical stupidity of power generaion in Australia in general, Victoria in particular, i fully expect to have more of these events.
Had a visit last night from a flying mate who is about to build a house on a block he bought out of town the Powercor quote to provide him with three phase power was $100,000, so he is looking at what options he has to go off grid, and was looking at our setup.
He is obviously not your average customer, but as we know, there is no such thing as the average person.
Mick

Don’t get me wrong, having a good sized solar system and Batteries is great, but what I am saying is over sizing your system by 100% just so you can go off grid is not worth it, you would be better just importing a little a the few days a year that are super cloudy, and if the grid goes down for a day just and I happens to be a cloudy day just conserve power and delay big ticket items.

The grid connection it’s self is a good back up worth the $1 a day, and that $1 gets paid for by some of the additional power you send back.

 

[Belli]

Part of the process of the ACT Government going all EV.

"What the ACT Government terms a “world-first project” demonstrated how Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) services could be technically and economically viable in Australia.

In 2020, the ACT Government trialled Realising Electric Vehicles to Grid Services (REVS): electric vehicles (51 Nissan Leaves) and chargers transferred power back and forth into the grid, as required, showing how EVs could regulate frequency in the National Electricity Market (NEM)."

ACT Government says Vehicle-to-Grid services are viable | Canberra Daily

What the ACT Government terms a “world-first project” demonstrated how Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) services could be technically and economically viable in Australia.

canberraweekly.com.au

 

[macca]

It will never stack up economically as Dan the man controls how much we get for selling back to the grid, which is 4.4 cents per KW versus the 24 cents per Kwhr (soon to be 32 cent per KWHR) that we pay to get the power. And that of course assumes that the grid wants it, which is not always the case.
But what it does give is security, something that is not guaranteed by the grid.
Thats is what I paid for, and more than happy with it.
The system records the blackouts and brown outs we have had since we installed it, and given the idealogical stupidity of power generaion in Australia in general, Victoria in particular, i fully expect to have more of these events.
Had a visit last night from a flying mate who is about to build a house on a block he bought out of town the Powercor quote to provide him with three phase power was $100,000, so he is looking at what options he has to go off grid, and was looking at our setup.
He is obviously not your average customer, but as we know, there is no such thing as the average person.
Mick

Your mate should have a chat with SP trawlers son, he is off grid in WA

 

[SirRumpole]

Lots of brains with capital working on it, it will be a combination of Batteries (both home, vehicle and grid size), hydro and as you mentioned gas peaking plants.

This is the prediction for electricity deman growth and the most likely sources. The Red is the on demand storage and gas etc.View attachment 155102

Yes, but it 's a pity that the Greens don't like gas or hydto since they have Labof by the b*lls at the moment.

 

[Value Collector]

Yes, but it 's a pity that the Greens don't like gas or hydto since they have Labof by the b*lls at the moment.

We do eventually have to give up gas too, but as we phase on coal we will have to lean on gas a bit more for a little while.

 

[Smurf1976]

Probably better to discuss it in the other thread and keep this to EV's but I'll just say that so far as the grid is concerned, the problem isn't with how to shift solar energy from midday to 6pm or how to keep the lights on overnight. That's relatively easy to solve via batteries and small pumped hydro schemes based on old quarries etc.

The problem is how to cope with multiple consecutive days of far below average wind and solar yield and doubly so when, as often occurs in practice, those periods coincide with above average consumption. Batteries and small hydro is nowhere near up to the task - what works, with present technology, are fossil fuels or large scale hydro and by that I mean storing far more water than can be achieved with a disused quarry.

There's a great example of the problem in Victoria over the past few days.

Sunday 26 March VRE (wind + solar) yield was just 50.9% of the daily average for the past 12 months.

Monday 27th it was 20.2% of the average.

Tuesday 28th it was 41.9% of average.

Much the same in SA:
26th = 69.6% of average
27th = 61.5% of average
28th = 61.1% of average

Tasmania:
26th = 32.1% of average
27th = 58.5% of average
28th = 85.9% of average

NSW
26th = 83.7% of average
27th = 52.2% of average
28th = 46.9% of average

So the whole of south-eastern Australia has the same issue at the same time.

Solutions:

1. Build far more wind and solar than we need overall, so there's still enough on relatively calm days. Downsides = huge financial cost. Also environmental impact = when you need that many of them, you don't get to be too fussy about where they're installed.

2. Backup generation using, in practice, fossil fuels. Downsides = CO2 emissions and reliance on imported fuels. Also potentially expensive.

3. Large storage hydro. Downsides = upfront high cost. Environmental impact of land use change - opposition to large hydro projects is after all the very issue upon which the Greens were founded.

4. The problem can be reduced but not eliminated by major transmission projects over long distances. Queensland and WA have both experienced far better conditions over those three days for example. Downsides = over that distance the cost is huge and those lines are going to upset someone no matter where they're put. Farms or natural bushland including National Parks - there's not much land that isn't one or the other and both will attract howls of protest.

So overall it's a "choose your poison" situation but there's no option that won't upset someone somehow.

General industry consensus at present = gas is the path of least resistance.

 

[mullokintyre]

For those who like to get out and about in caravans, Winebago have finally unveiled their all electric RV.
From RV Daily

American lifestyle product manufacturer, Winnebago, has revealed its highly-anticipated electric RV prototype, the eRV2, in response to the growing demand for sustainable forms of road travel. A fully-operational prototype of its all-electric, zero-emission RV was revealed at the Florida RV SuperShow in Florida, in January 2023.

The revolutionary all-electric, zero-emission RV runs on a Ford E-Transit chassis. And is powered by a proprietary IonBlade lithium house battery, which has more than 15,000 usable watt-hours. It’s stored beneath the floor to maximise interior space.

15KW? You would be lucky to haul that thing around for half an hour before it needs recharging.

i guess it is only in testing phase, having done around 5,000 miles, but there is going to have to be a massive increase in the battery capacity before it ever gets to market.
Mick

 

[Value Collector]

Probably better to discuss it in the other thread and keep this to EV's but I'll just say that so far as the grid is concerned, the problem isn't with how to shift solar energy from midday to 6pm or how to keep the lights on overnight. That's relatively easy to solve via batteries and small pumped hydro schemes based on old quarries etc.

The problem is how to cope with multiple consecutive days of far below average wind and solar yield and doubly so when, as often occurs in practice, those periods coincide with above average consumption. Batteries and small hydro is nowhere near up to the task - what works, with present technology, are fossil fuels or large scale hydro and by that I mean storing far more water than can be achieved with a disused quarry.

There's a great example of the problem in Victoria over the past few days.

Sunday 26 March VRE (wind + solar) yield was just 50.9% of the daily average for the past 12 months.

Monday 27th it was 20.2% of the average.

Tuesday 28th it was 41.9% of average.

Much the same in SA:
26th = 69.6% of average
27th = 61.5% of average
28th = 61.1% of average

Tasmania:
26th = 32.1% of average
27th = 58.5% of average
28th = 85.9% of average

NSW
26th = 83.7% of average
27th = 52.2% of average
28th = 46.9% of average

So the whole of south-eastern Australia has the same issue at the same time.

Solutions:

1. Build far more wind and solar than we need overall, so there's still enough on relatively calm days. Downsides = huge financial cost. Also environmental impact = when you need that many of them, you don't get to be too fussy about where they're installed.

2. Backup generation using, in practice, fossil fuels. Downsides = CO2 emissions and reliance on imported fuels. Also potentially expensive.

3. Large storage hydro. Downsides = upfront high cost. Environmental impact of land use change - opposition to large hydro projects is after all the very issue upon which the Greens were founded.

4. The problem can be reduced but not eliminated by major transmission projects over long distances. Queensland and WA have both experienced far better conditions over those three days for example. Downsides = over that distance the cost is huge and those lines are going to upset someone no matter where they're put. Farms or natural bushland including National Parks - there's not much land that isn't one or the other and both will attract howls of protest.

So overall it's a "choose your poison" situation but there's no option that won't upset someone somehow.

General industry consensus at present = gas is the path of least resistance.

Those excess wind and solar that are excess to what the grid needs, but are back for low production times can be employed producing hydrogen for most of the year. Then on the few days or weeks when over all production drops they the hydrogen production can be shut down and all avail electricity diverted to the grid.

There could be a pricing mechanism where during times the grid needs the extra supply it is worth the hydrogen time to shut down their hydrogen production.

We also still have Gas as part of the plan till 2050

 

[IFocus]

Just to derail the thread further was down at Albany wind farm recently the nose cone weighs 14 ton stands 65 meter high blades 35 mt long.

 

[mullokintyre]

Ford have announced that the Mach E will be coming to Australia.


My brother rented one from LA a few weeks ago and loved it.
I will be a serious contender for upgrading the BYD to a Premium Mach E given its WTP range of 600Km's.
May be able to drive from Home to Melbourne and back on a single charge.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Teslas Cybertruck has been spotted around testing in US with what the experts suggesting is very close to its final production form.
Pity it looks like it was built by a couple of pissed uni students from left over bits.
Would have to be the ugliest thing i have seen since the AMC Gremlin.

A face only a mother could love.
Mick

 

[orr]

In that case, I reckon I will be even more diligent in checking your prejudices from now on.
Mick

Any of that on topic??


this is;
I have a hard leaning toward efficiency and waste minimisation. As such my interest in EV's and their development. And are certainly prejuidce toward those ends.


got anything else mulligan?

 

[pozindustrial]

1.5million pre orders says plenty of people would love one.

 

[rederob]

Don’t get me wrong, having a good sized solar system and Batteries is great, but what I am saying is over sizing your system by 100% just so you can go off grid is not worth it, you would be better just importing a little a the few days a year that are super cloudy, and if the grid goes down for a day just and I happens to be a cloudy day just conserve power and delay big ticket items.

Or buy an EV with V2L, as even a 60kWh EV battery at 30% is more than enough for the average home to get by after solar conks out.

 

[mullokintyre]

Any of that on topic??


this is;
I have a hard leaning toward efficiency and waste minimisation. As such my interest in EV's and their development. And are certainly prejuidce toward those ends.


got anything else mulligan?

Disdain.

 

[Smurf1976]

Those excess wind and solar that are excess to what the grid needs, but are back for low production times can be employed producing hydrogen for most of the year. Then on the few days or weeks when over all production drops they the hydrogen production can be shut down and all avail electricity diverted to the grid.

I've posted a link to a detailed report in another thread to avoid taking this one too far off the topic of EV's:

The future of energy generation and storage

Their land will not be used up for solar panels, nor will it be blighted by the many towers that will support the 500kv power lines. What's missing here is leadership and credibility. If it was a century ago and Sir John Monash said a transmission line needs to run across your farm then few if...

www.aussiestockforums.com

Post #6898 in that thread.

In short though business isn't at all convinced by the idea on economic grounds and is thinking more in terms of hydrogen production requiring external firming of energy supply by other methods eg hydro.