Electric cars?

[JohnDe]

No I have no recollection of the Holden Starfire engine. When did that appear, 1940's ?

Hahaha, yes anyone that did not have any knowledge of this Aussie engine would have figured it was a 1940's design. But no, it was developed in the late 1970's when all other manufacturers were using aluminium, cross flow heads and overhead cams.

 

[JohnDe]

The starfire was a 173 holden 6 with two cylinders chopped off, came out in the Sunbird Torana and VC Commodore, really was an underpowered, fuel hungry POS. Not very popular in its day. It was introduced to compete with the imported Japanese 4 cylinders, but it didn't.

And the lovely Varajet carburetor.

 

[JohnDe]

Drive - ABC listen

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[Value Collector]

This is a huge problem, as usual everyone that lives in highly populated areas get terrific infrastructure, because there is enough usage to pay its way, therefore they just want a subsidy to buy the car.
Meanwhile those who live remotely have to bear the cost of the subsidy, yet get very little to no benefit from it.

It is the same with mobile phone services and internet, those in major populated areas want taxpayers to put in fibre to the house for bling speed, those taxpayers in remote areas just want a service. Both groups pay taxes, only one group is getting value for their taxes paid.
Australia has become a nation of very self centred, selfish people IMO.

Mobile black spots and poor internet holding back regions, report warns

The report from Infrastructure Australia shows poor mobile and broadband coverage persists across regional Victoria and the pandemic has further exposed the shortfalls.

www.theage.com.au

Mobile black spots and poor internet coverage are plaguing regional Victoria and hampering economic development as more people attempt to work from home and conduct business online.

The latest report from Infrastructure Australia shows poor mobile and broadband coverage persists across the regions and the pandemic has further exposed the shortfalls.

My Son and his family applied for the NBN to supply a service in December, to their rural block, they have been paying for it, but are still yet to receive it. 200 klm south of Perth and can't get a tech to go there.

In a lot of ways city folk subsidise the regional areas, for example all the loss making mobile phone towers and power lines.

 

[sptrawler]

In a lot of ways city folk subsidise the regional areas, for example all the loss making mobile phone towers and power lines.

That is very true and why I keep saying the Government needs to put this infrastructure in, the private sector wont because there is no return on capital.
I don't how many ways I can say the same thing, a subsidy is a subsidy, whether it is for a person to buy an EV or for an EV charge point put in an area that services a low population density area, we just seem to disagree on where we think the subsidy should be.

The politicians will give the subsidy to those that have the most voting power, that's why they are subsidising the EV's, I personally would rather see more infrastructure spending, but again everyone is different.

A lot of Australia's wealth is derived from the regions, but the wealthy who live in the cities get the main advantage from it, giving subsidies for E.V's is just another example of pandering to City elites.

Many of the City elites derive their income and wealth, from businesses that operate in remote areas, if people weren't prepared to live and work in those areas the companies wouldn't be able to function.

Putting in infrastructure, so that rural people can enjoy some of the benefits those that are fortunate enough to live in cities enjoy, to me isn't too much to ask.

 

[Value Collector]

That is very true and why I keep saying the Government needs to put this infrastructure in, the private sector wont because there is no return on capital.
I don't how many ways I can say the same thing, a subsidy is a subsidy, whether it is for a person to buy an EV or for an EV charge point put in an area that services a low population density area, we just seem to disagree on where we think the subsidy should be.

The politicians will give the subsidy to those that have the most voting power, that's why they are subsidising the EV's, I personally would rather see more infrastructure spending, but again everyone is different.

A lot of Australia's wealth is derived from the regions, but the wealthy who live in the cities get the main advantage from it, giving subsidies for E.V's is just another example of pandering to City elites.

Many of the City elites derive their income and wealth, from businesses that operate in remote areas, if people weren't prepared to live and work in those areas the companies wouldn't be able to function.

Putting in infrastructure, so that rural people can enjoy some of the benefits those that are fortunate enough to live in cities enjoy, to me isn't too much to ask.

Maybe I will agree with a subsidy to install infrastructure in regional areas to help kick start it, but we don’t need subsidy for petrol stations, so eventually it should be self funding.

 

[Smurf1976]

Maybe I will agree with a subsidy to install infrastructure in regional areas to help kick start it, but we don’t need subsidy for petrol stations, so eventually it should be self funding.

Long term I agree it can stand on its own two feet.

Short term though, I can see a definite benefit to society in ensuring that EV charging is available everywhere someone might reasonably need it.

 

[rederob]

Here's an interesting read from Sharecafe on a range of issues in the EV space.

What the article did not mention was how far behind the legacy automakers are compared to Tesla and several Chinese companies.
Getting NEVs into production at scale took Tesla over a decade, and it's still refining every single aspect of it's operations.
As pointed out in the article, newcomers like Rivian face major challenges in getting out their vehicles in the numbers they hoped for unless they have their production and supply chains running smoothly. You can tell things are not easy when their forecast annual production rate of 150k units drops to a tad over 50K.

From an investment perspective Tesla's probable 2.8M to 3M BEVs in calendar 2022 puts it so far ahead of every single automaker, including those making ICEVs, because while the Toyotas and VWs of the world have better gross numbers, their ICEV sales are lead weights, while Tesla simply cannot make enough BEVs to meet demand.

The last point not covered in the article is price. By the time legacy automakers get their BEVs into the market Tesla and a number of larger Chinese NEV manufactures will have amortised their production costs, and be able to undercut any offering of a comparable nature from Legacy auto.

My view is that legacy automakers will have to find their own market niches to survive and stop offering dozens of models for their old consumer market. Why so? In the premium market would you rather have a Lucid Air, or an EV offering from Mercedes, BMW or Audi? Lucid Air has quickly found a place in this market segment. So prospective buyers in this niche will be comparing in reverse; ie., how will I know if my Merc EV model will be as good?

 

[sptrawler]

@rederob I also feel there is a change in peoples perceptions of cars, people no longer see them as a pose item, unlike the last generation, times change and with it so do peoples tastes and desires.
A BMW, RR, Audi, Jaguar or any other car don't have the wow factor , they had 30 years ago, cars are going the way of the mobile phone the one that does the job the best and has the best battery life wins the day IMO. That is why there are only two major players, in the phone space, Apple and Samsung.
Yet 25 years ago Nokia was the major player and Apple nearly went broke, the same will happen with the car industry, there will be companies that can adapt and amalgamate, there will be buyouts and unfortunately bankruptcies.
Big, big changes ahead in the auto and power generation space and it is happening a lot quicker than people think, I had a coffee with a friend today and he arrived in a brand new Tesla, I never expected that.

 

[sptrawler]

I wonder what materials VW sources from Russia/Ukraine, to make the Porsche Taycan.

Porsche Taycan electric car production paused amid Ukraine conflict

Australian supply of the electric sedan could be affected by the factory shutdown.

www.drive.com.au

 

[JohnDe]

Drove 800km’s yesterday, cost me $50

 

[rederob]

A BMW, RR, Audi, Jaguar or any other car don't have the wow factor , they had 30 years ago, cars are going the way of the mobile phone the one that does the job the best and has the best battery life wins the day IMO. That is why there are only two major players, in the phone space, Apple and Samsung.

A few years ago Jaguar's I-Pace won World car of the Year.
Today it's regarded as a relative heap of manure.

If you are not a Tesla fanboy - or gender neutral alternative - then you are more likely to be into a Hyundai Ioniq 5 or a Kia EV6 if you watch the EV space and want a really good EV in the $70K to $80K range. In Europe Skoda's Enyaq nudges out VW's ID4. These are not big names here because they are as rare as hen's teeth in Oz, but they feature heavily in the automotive industry outside of the USA.

The thing about these EVs is that while they are more expensive than their ICEV equivalents, they are also so much better that they are now becoming talking points of themselves, just as Tesla's Plaid is known to outperform every other production car in the world.

I don't know who Tesla's biggest competitor will be by 2025 in the NEV world, but I doubt it will be and on the present legacy automakers. And I am not so sure about battery technology/range being the driving force (pun intended) as I think that by 2025 the big ticket item will be autonomous driving, and who has the safest platform. Maybe 2025 is a bit soon, but cars are going to become creature comfort spaces that get us places, and will be internally configured for different purposes, such as working office platforms, or chilling out/relaxation pods until you arrive at you destination.

 

[rederob]

Drove 800km’s yesterday, cost me $50

View attachment 139236

As more and more people see these numbers and compare them to spending around $100 at the moment to fill up the average sedan for a 500km trip, they will think twice about buying another gas guzzler.

2022 is looking like the straw that broke back of ICEV preference as new model NEV order books continue to be oversubscribed and delivery dates run into 2023. For fun I just tried to buy a Tesla online and discovered you could not get a firm price or delivery date. That's unreal for a company conservatively building over 2.5M units this calendar year.

 

[sptrawler]

As more and more people see these numbers and compare them to spending around $100 at the moment to fill up the average sedan for a 500km trip, they will think twice about buying another gas guzzler.

2022 is looking like the straw that broke back of ICEV preference as new model NEV order books continue to be oversubscribed and delivery dates run into 2023. For fun I just tried to buy a Tesla online and discovered you could not get a firm price or delivery date. That's unreal for a company conservatively building over 2.5M units this calendar year.

I asked the friend who turned up in a tesla this morning, how long ago did he order it, two months. I thought that was pretty good, ordering the Kona through W.A's biggest dealer, they said about 4 to 5 months, to delivery.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“The demand [for EVs] is not the issue. This transition into EVs will take probably two product lifecycles, and we are just starting.”
Herbert Diess, CEO, Volkswagen AG

“It's [driverless cars] a multitrillion-dollar market...In the United States, there's 3 trillion passenger miles each year, and regardless of whether you look at Uber's S1 or AAA stats, the costs of car ownership per mile is between, call it, $0.60 to $0.80, and so you can do the math there. It gets big pretty quickly."
Kyle Vogt, CEO, Cruise LLC [self-driving car company]

“Less and less [sic] people can afford vehicles. Electrification is going to make it worse, actually. So, to me, the true disruption of Henry Ford's model of a Model T where anyone can own a Ford, even our factory workers, is really shared mobility, where people stop owning vehicles and they start renting rides.”
James Farley, CEO, Ford Motor Company

from Naos' weekly "CEO insights"

NAOS CEO Insights

blog.naos.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

from Naos' weekly "CEO insights"

NAOS CEO Insights

blog.naos.com.au

That is spot on Dona, in Cities with good public transport, the move away from cars completely will be accelerating.
The wife and I, when travelling between Mandurah and Perth(approx 60klm), chose to use electric scooters, public transport and bicycles when we get to our destination in Perth.
This is mainly due to the terrible drive up on the 'freeway', which is more like a slow moving funeral procession, for a lot of the way. So it is easier to leave the car in Mandurah.
Our second son and his partner live in fairly close proximity to the CBD and only use electric scooters/public transport.

 

[Value Collector]

I asked the friend who turned up in a tesla this morning, how long ago did he order it, two months. I thought that was pretty good, ordering the Kona through W.A's biggest dealer, they said about 4 to 5 months, to delivery.

My Dad ordered a model 3, and had it in 2 weeks, that was over a year ago though, before all the supply issues, and it was just a stock standard white one, I think they had a few unallocated ones on a shipment.

 

[bk1]

Jim Farley is spot on.
If the Model T democratized vehicle ownership for the masses, then its possible electrification will have an opposite effect. The outcomes are only vaguely appreciated or understood.
Perhaps only when the gigafactories acheive scale can any of these vehicles be within reach of the average worker. In the meantime only the wealthy swap out their Nissan Patrol for a Mercedes EQS, $125k anyone? (I'm guessing here... but i saw one the other day).

I can't visualise myself spending that much money on any car

 

[Value Collector]

Jim Farley is spot on.
If the Model T democratized vehicle ownership for the masses, then its possible electrification will have an opposite effect. The outcomes are only vaguely appreciated or understood.
Perhaps only when the gigafactories acheive scale can any of these vehicles be within reach of the average worker. In the meantime only the wealthy swap out their Nissan Patrol for a Mercedes EQS, $125k anyone? (I'm guessing here... but i saw one the other day).

I can't visualise myself spending that much money on any car

Plenty of Ev’s for less than $125k on the market.

Feel the opposite about EV’s, being able to make your own fuel (solar power) and not be as tied to the energy giants certainly make we feel pretty free.

When looking at the price of EV’s keep in mind that the sticker price (purchase price) os only part of the cost you pay for owning a car.

EV’s have significantly lower life time costs than petrol cars when you factor in Fuel and Maintenance costs.

 

[SirRumpole]

Plenty of Ev’s for less than $125k on the market.

Feel the opposite about EV’s, being able to make your own fuel (solar power) and not be as tied to the energy giants certainly make we feel pretty free.

When looking at the price of EV’s keep in mind that the sticker price (purchase price) os only part of the cost you pay for owning a car.

EV’s have significantly lower life time costs than petrol cars when you factor in Fuel and Maintenance costs.

What are the comprehensive insurance rates like ?