Electric cars?

[qldfrog]

Very good point. I've been saying we should get into chip manufacturing for some time.

Ford to sell Explorer SUVs missing rear climate controls due to chip crunch

Ford is taking an interesting, maybe even innovative move here to battle the ongoing semiconductor crunch afflicting global automakers.

finance.yahoo.com

So even when you build most of the car, this is still indeed a critical point realistically, i can not really imagine even trying to build an IC industry here.
Now that Taipei could be compromised, it would make sense for a non China mass production.
Siemens and Philips had some capabilities, the US obviously and South Korea
Thinking aloud
One way out could be producing one basic CPU, one basic Eprom and the basic electronic components regulator transistors etc etc
That should be a crude way to be able to do basically everything, even if not integrated in a single one for all chip
Much bigger, more consumption slower but kind of universal toolkit set.
Plenty enough for basic needs : car control etc home electronic and plc.
That should sort cars EVs but if we start wanting self driving laser mapping..will not cut it
I would guess the US have spacial and defence component fully developed domestically?

 

[SirRumpole]

One way out could be producing one basic CPU, one basic Eprom and the basic electronic components regulator transistors etc etc
That should be a crude way to be able to do basically everything, even if not integrated in a single one for all chip

Excellent idea, the CPU is the critical component, the others just hang off it and make it work.

 

[Value Collector]

Very good point. I've been saying we should get into chip manufacturing for some time.

Cool, if you think you can compete, you should do it, you should put together a group of investors.

 

[SirRumpole]

Cool, if you think you can compete, you should do it, you should put together a group of investors.

Huh, too rich for me it would have to be government backed.

When are you going to wake up to the fact that the global economy is not just about money or competition any more, it's about geo-politics and achieving economic and political dominance ?

Supply chain security is a real issue. China and Russia are growing closer together and that has implications for the West in that a lot of goods we buy from China might be going elsewhere.

All those investments by Berkshire Hathaway in China could be wiped away at the stroke of a pen if the Chinese government decided to do so, like Russia they don't operate by Western rules, they have their own.

Self reliance and resilience is more important now than it ever has been.

 

[JohnDe]

I found this interesting -

"60,000km in a Model 3 charged at my current SE Qld AGL standard tariff of 25c/KwHr vs average Australian passenger vehicle (average fuel economy 11.1L/100km - source ABS 2020) at current Brisbane city ULP91 fuel prices of $2.20 litre​

Total Model 3 charging cost: $2,340​

Total Average Australian passenger vehicle petrol cost: $14,652"​

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[sptrawler]

What I find interesting at the moment is, it wasn't long ago that the media were suggesting the Government put measures in place to make ICE vehicles less attractive and to encourage the adoption of EV's.
Now that the price of fuel has gone up, the media wants the Government to reduce the price, strange I would have thought it would have done exactly what they wanted, to make EV's look a more attractive option.

 

[rederob]

Cool, if you think you can compete, you should do it, you should put together a group of investors.

Electric Vehicles are now integrating cutting edge technology with AI and machine learning, so those here with antiquated ideas about starting a production facility without those capacities are doomed before they start. Assisted driving, and in years to come autonomous driving, also bring new levels of safety to our roads with the ability to determine and react to situations literally faster than the blink of an eye.
About the only possible area Australia could score a run would be to develop and patent a unique EV battery formulation that was cheaper, lighter and more energy dense than what is presently available. Even then we would suffer the constraint of shipping costs and transport delays because we won't have any vehicles manufacturers nearby.

I have posted a fair bit on BYD because that company makes its own chips, batteries, most parts, and is still building more vehicle production plants. It's the only company in the world fully vertically integrated and expanding its EV production numbers at a rate second only to Tesla. Tesla's gigapress casting machines, many innovative patents, and more advanced vehicle construction techniques - especially in relation to reducing the number of parts needed to "build" its cars - mean it still has an edge over any of the Chinese companies making EVs, but they are catching up. I personally believe Tesla should maintain its edge by continuing to target the middle/upper priced market and maintain its strong selling margins, rather than go for volume production with lesser margins, even if they do choose to build another plant in China. Tesla has built from a base which offers only a few models, and has been spectacularly successful by sticking to this knitting. Meanwhile the the many legacy carmakers who have tried to be all things to all people are consistently losing market share with their ICEV offerings, and getting further and further behind the NEV manufacturers the longer they delay transitioning. Their problem will be trying to compete with less advanced vehicles that cost more.

 

[SirRumpole]

i'm sure that there are labs in CSIR
Electric Vehicles are now integrating cutting edge technology with AI and machine learning, so those here with antiquated ideas about starting a production facility without those capacities are doomed before they start.

What makes you think AI and machine learning is unknown is Australia ?

I'm sure that there are labs in CSIRO and our universities could supply those skills.

Maybe Mike Cannon-Brooks has some ideas.

Why you and others keep running down this country is a mystery.

 

[Value Collector]

Huh, too rich for me it would have to be government backed.

When are you going to wake up to the fact that the global economy is not just about money or competition any more, it's about geo-politics and achieving economic and political dominance ?

Supply chain security is a real issue. China and Russia are growing closer together and that has implications for the West in that a lot of goods we buy from China might be going elsewhere.

All those investments by Berkshire Hathaway in China could be wiped away at the stroke of a pen if the Chinese government decided to do so, like Russia they don't operate by Western rules, they have their own.

Self reliance and resilience is more important now than it ever has been.

Why does it have to be government?

I am sure Elon and Warren have weighed up the benefits and risks of China versus Australia, as you said there is political risks in China, which means if they chose to go there anyway, there must be some massive economic and industrial benefits to outweigh the risk.

 

[mullokintyre]

Why does it have to be government?

I am sure Elon and Warren have weighed up the benefits and risks of China versus Australia, as you said there is political risks in China, which means if they chose to go there anyway, there must be some massive economic and industrial benefits to outweigh the risk.

I am sure you are quite correct in assuming that Wokka and Elon weighed up the risks of just about anything they do, but their weighing may not always be correct, nor have they factored in the "unknown unknowns", such as Russia invading Ukraine.
Entities, be they governments, fund managers, CEO's of large corporations of NGO's , do not always get risk management right.
I have a hunch that both Wokka and Elon are going to come out of their forrays into China with some negativities.
The question is , how much.
Mick

 

[rederob]

What I find interesting at the moment is, it wasn't long ago that the media were suggesting the Government put measures in place to make ICE vehicles less attractive and to encourage the adoption of EV's.
Now that the price of fuel has gone up, the media wants the Government to reduce the price, strange I would have thought it would have done exactly what they wanted, to make EV's look a more attractive option.

The media reports the views of industry and politicians.
How they report may be the subject of their biases, but it's not them coming up with the story to begin with.
The only caveat to the above is where industry specialists write media columns, blogs, posts or upload videos with their views, or have dedicated channels or media outlets.

What makes you think AI and machine learning is unknown is Australia ?

I'm sure that there are labs in CSIRO and our universities could supply those skills.

The learning process is from an NEV vehicle's information system, over the air to the manufacturer, then to the programmers and chip makers.
Maybe CSIRO can get out their Matchbox toys and run a few billion simulations covering every driving scenario tens of thousands of of times, as without access to NEV information systems they have no hope.

 

[Value Collector]

I am sure you are quite correct in assuming that Wokka and Elon weighed up the risks of just about anything they do, but their weighing may not always be correct, nor have they factored in the "unknown unknowns", such as Russia invading Ukraine.
Entities, be they governments, fund managers, CEO's of large corporations of NGO's , do not always get risk management right.
I have a hunch that both Wokka and Elon are going to come out of their forrays into China with some negativities.
The question is , how much.
Mick

Of course CEOs don’t always get it right, but they probably get it right more often than politicians, So I feel more comfortable allowing the capital allocation decisions to those CEOs and investors putting their own money at risk, rather than the tax payers.

 

[sptrawler]

The media reports the views of industry and politicians.
How they report may be the subject of their biases, but it's not them coming up with the story to begin with.
The only caveat to the above is where industry specialists write media columns, blogs, posts or upload videos with their views, or have dedicated channels or media outlets.

Don't you think it would do more good for their overall thrust of stopping global warming, to put a bias suggesting the public consider EV's as the issue with fuel is going to be ongoing, one way or another.
Rather than pressuring the Government to reduce the excise to make fuel cheaper, it doesn't present a very cohesive argument for the climate change thrust, when as soon as the cost goes up the media cry is to make it more affordable.
As you say it is only bias, but when their bias proves how much BS they push, it actually shows the issues are presented to feed the chooks and maintain circulation, not present logical cohesive reporting.
Either climate change is an important issue that needs addressing, or does it really depend on how much it costs the reporter, to fill their cars?
It is a bit like when the issue of housing affordability is reported on, the reports are always biased and focused on the problem with affordability in Melbourne/Sydney, where coincidentally the journalist live and are looking to buy, funny that.
Which stories they wish to report on and the way they present it, has a huge impact on the general publics perceptions, they do indeed come up with stories, in the same way as they sometimes don't report on a story that should be presented, self censoring is a disaster.

 

[Macquack]

Why not get rid of financial services people so we can employ them in electric car building ?

You got my vote SirRumpole.

 

[rederob]

Don't you think it would do more good for their overall thrust of stopping global warming, to put a bias suggesting the public consider EV's as the issue with fuel is going to be ongoing, one way or another.
Rather than pressuring the Government to reduce the excise to make fuel cheaper, it doesn't present a very cohesive argument for the climate change thrust, when as soon as the cost goes up the media cry is to make it more affordable.
As you say it is only bias, but when their bias proves how much BS they push, it actually shows the issues are presented to feed the chooks and maintain circulation, not present logical cohesive reporting.
Either climate change is an important issue that needs addressing, or does it really depend on how much it costs the reporter, to fill their cars?
It is a bit like when the issue of housing affordability is reported on, the reports are always biased and focused on the problem with affordability in Melbourne/Sydney, where coincidentally the journalist live and are looking to buy, funny that.
Which stories they wish to report on and the way they present it, has a huge impact on the general publics perceptions, they do indeed come up with stories, in the same way as they sometimes don't report on a story that should be presented, self censoring is a disaster.

I guess a lot depends on where you go for what you want to know about.
Lots post from Twitter at ASF without any comments attached, lots post from pseudoscience rather than peer reviewed material, lots post their preferred slant from media that offers positive reinforcement, and lots post without any data or supporting information to give a rationale to their comments.

Specifically on the topic of EVs our federal government is nothing short of prehistoric by maintaining large grants and subsidies relating to the FF sector and comparatively little to foster NEVs. As @Smurf1976 often points out, their policy is deliberate in not having one at all.

As you and I discovered, States/Territories are offering a bit here and nothing there to incentivise or otherwise EV take-up. I could easily have changed my address to my brother in law's just over an hour's drive away in NSW and got $5300 off my EV price, and then come back home with a very mucher cheaper car than using my Qld address. Such market distortions are undesirable and should have been addressed at National Cabinet. Unfortunately anything to do with energy is too hard for the feds to deal with so we keep getting a clusterfart of initiatives that vary by each Premier's predelictions. My personal view is that NSW is further ahead than all the other States in terms of driving change, and are only dragged back with lesser environmental policies.

 

[qldfrog]

What makes you think AI and machine learning is unknown is Australia ?

I'm sure that there are labs in CSIRO and our universities could supply those skills.

Maybe Mike Cannon-Brooks has some ideas.

Why you and others keep running down this country is a mystery.

Yes we have some AI..but you will not bring me back to work in Oz...
It is just hard to attract real talents in Oz and the covid debacle did not help

 

[Bourseboy]

In this or another thread someone raised the question of Australia producing fuel (petrol) from coal. We have an abundance of coal. Sasol/SASOL in South Africa has made fuel from coal since the mid 1950's and is probably still doing so. Sasol is integrated (also mines the coal).
AECI (a South African chemical and explosives company) had an ammonia from coal (1000tons ammonia/day) plant, commissioned about 1972, which I have been told (on good authority) was later sold to China for scrap metal value. Around 1995 I know this plant was still operating in South Africa. Apparently it is now operating in China (the scrap metal contract included all engineering plans etc). No doubt South Africa now buys ammonia (and/or the downstream products) from China

 

[Value Collector]

You got my vote SirRumpole.

How are you going to have a car industry if you get rid of the financing industry? Almost all cars are financed or leased, even in the used car market.

Not to mention building the factory requires financing for all the construction companies and trades, the financial industry is actually the bedrock of the economy, even though most people wouldn’t want to admit it.

 

[Value Collector]

In this or another thread someone raised the question of Australia producing fuel (petrol) from coal. We have an abundance of coal. Sasol/SASOL in South Africa has made fuel from coal since the mid 1950's and is probably still doing so. Sasol is integrated (also mines the coal).
AECI (a South African chemical and explosives company) had an ammonia from coal (1000tons ammonia/day) plant, commissioned about 1972, which I have been told (on good authority) was later sold to China for scrap metal value. Around 1995 I know this plant was still operating in South Africa. Apparently it is now operating in China (the scrap metal contract included all engineering plans etc). No doubt South Africa now buys ammonia (and/or the downstream products) from China

It is neither cheap or environmentally friendly.

Feel free to fund a facility to do it, but once the war in Ukraine ends and the oil price crashes your plant will be dead in the water before it produces its first barrel.

I have been there and done that with a biodiesel plant back in 2007

 

[SirRumpole]

How are you going to have a car industry if you get rid of the financing industry? Almost all cars are financed or leased, even in the used car market.

You can't take a joke can you ? Didn't you see the emojis in that post ?

But the way the financial industry has behaved in the last few decades, large parts of it could be gotten rid of with a net benefit to the consumer.