Electric cars?

[sptrawler]

What's all this rubbish about expensive EVs when they are already being manufactured at ICEv prices?
If you want to look at NEV residual prices try buying a used Tesla today. While earlier in this thread I priced a used Nissan Leaf, which is really crappy, and it also had a high residual value compared to any ICEv of same age.
Your argument about demand dropping is completely voided by the Tesla car experience. Tesla cannot get them out fast enough and they are vehicles above our "luxury car" price point.
It's all good and well to have opinions, but how about basing them on what is actually happening today.
When cities announce bans on FF vehicles, as they are continuing to do, who is going to want to retain their old gas guzzler?
Not only don't the maths add up for ICEvs on affordability at todays prices, but the rationale for continuing to own one will have disappeared well before 2030.

They are still niche, the uptake is still low in all but countries that provide handouts to subsidies them, Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles World wide in 2020 WOW that's amazing, Ford sold nearly twice as many F series utes just in the U.S.
When regulations force ICE vehicles off the road, obviously the uptake will accelerate, hopefully the EV cost has dropped by then.
I love your passion, but I think it is about three to five years premature personally.
I associate with 'normal' people and non of them are talking about rushing out to buy an EV, they are discussing them, but more in an inquisitive way than a looking to purchase way.
I'll start and take the surge seriously, when you and Bas get an EV, realistically if you two haven't bought one there must be a reason and it wont be not wanting one.

 

[JohnDe]

That is one of the most pertinent points, people will be reluctant to spend approx $70k on a car, when most of that cost is apportioned to the battery, which is a consumable and has a defined life expectancy.
Even those who are devotees of E.V's say that the costs of batteries will come down, therefore the purchase price of the vehicle will come down and the residual value of your E.V will plummet accordingly IMO.
With the current ICE powered cars, most are good for 20 years 250-300k's, so the residual reflects the remaining life expectancy, with E.V's there aren't enough on the road yet to get a realistic feel for the life cycle, so most people will be reluctant until the runs are on the board IMO.
Not many people can afford to pay $70k and find in 5 years time it is worth $10-$20k, I know a person down the road from us had a second hand Toyota Prius for sale for a long time, now they are still driving it obviously there was no interest.
I think it is one of those things that will take a while to gather speed, early uptakers have gone mental and bought all that are available, but I'm guessing once the dust settles, the pensive majority will take a longer term approach.
A bit like the Ford Mustang and the Holden Monaro, when they first came out they sold like hot cakes, then once everyone who absolutely wanted one had one, demand drops to normal levels.
The massive rush to pre order E.V's is similar IMO, those who really want one, just have to have it and have it now.
By the way, I'm thinking of buying a PHEV or EV in the new year, but I do like new technology.

Aussie Stok Forums is just like an investment; some people research before opening their wallet and mouth, while others jump in head first

Take a Tesla for a drive, then we can discuss the cost for the battery and all the technology and comfort that it has in it

 

[sptrawler]

Aussie Stok Forums is just like an investment; some people research before opening their wallet and mouth, while others jump in head first

You're spot on there, most people don't have to look in their wallet, to know there isn't enough in there.
While those on a stock forum, probably know they have enough, otherwise they wouldn't be on a stock forum.
By the way, I hope you didn't hurt your head, when you jumped into the Tesla ?
On a personal note, as I said in the earlier post, I am interested in a PHEV or EV, so I will be test driving a Tesla.
Many on here are sounding like reformed smokers and everyone knows how long it takes, before they bore the crap out of everyone.

 

[rederob]

They are still niche, the uptake is still low in all but countries that provide handouts to subsidies them, Tesla sold 500,000 vehicles World wide in 2020 WOW that's amazing, Ford sold nearly twice as many F series utes just in the U.S.
When regulations force ICE vehicles off the road, obviously the uptake will accelerate, hopefully the EV cost has dropped by then.
I love your passion, but I think it is about three to five years premature personally.

Your points are not relevant.
NEV production cannot match demand, and that equation is actually increasing, while everything about NEVs is continuing to improve.
I'm not sure why you want to overlook the fact that an EV can be turned out in less than half the time of an ICEv and that they are presently capable of being produced at equivalent prices. These issues have nothing to do with subsidies.
Now you want to dwell on "regulations" rather than affordability, and that's aside from the point @JohnDe has made about the "experience" and which @Value Collector has made here for years.
How many people in this forum are likely to retain their ICEvs knowing they will have a negligible resale value in years to come. For that matter, how many people here think that their ICEv model (in updated form) will still be manufactured after 2025 (unless you own a Korean or Japanese brand)?
As I said, the only problem for NEVs going forward is getting production to meet demand. In that regard a possible fly in the ointment is material costs (and supply) for lithium ternary batteries - but not LFPs - and the likely future crossover of hydrogen as a fuel source.
We in Oz have been insulated from the global decarbonisation drive because of a dimwitted government and even more stupid media. But it's strong in the rest of the world - even America under Biden - and, coupled with the other points I have made, be the major theme of the 2020s IMO and based on established trends.

 

[sptrawler]

As usual, my points aren't relevant, because you don't agree with them.
Most take your points on board, it is a shame you don't extend the same courtiusy.
So when are you heading off to pick up the EV? It sounds to me that you would have already done so, with your obvious enthusiasm and religious like fervour.
I can hear the tambourine from over here in Perth.lol
Your post actually supports my reasoning, on a stock forum, where one would assume the members are fairly financially comfortable, you can only mention two obviously well off individuals to support your blather. If the demand was as rampant as you say, many more on the forum would be buying an EV.
As I said, when are you getting yours? If it isn't affordability and you obviously really want one, what's the issue?

 

[mullokintyre]

Ok, so all the bits for my EV conversion arrived today.
It will take me a month just to do the inventory and read the installation manual.
I haven't even finished the body work yet.
So much fun to be had.
from what i have gleaned, only Value collector and John De have admitted to owning an EV.
I can now join them, its just that mine does not work (yet).
Mick

 

[sptrawler]

Ok, so all the bits for my EV conversion arrived today.
It will take me a month just to do the inventory and read the installation manual.
I haven't even finished the body work yet.
So much fun to be had.
from what i have gleaned, only Value collector and John De have admitted to owning an EV.
I can now join them, its just that mine does not work (yet).
Mick

Keep us posted, maybe start a thread Micks Frankenstein EV. ?

 

[moXJO]

Ok, so all the bits for my EV conversion arrived today.
It will take me a month just to do the inventory and read the installation manual.
I haven't even finished the body work yet.
So much fun to be had.
from what i have gleaned, only Value collector and John De have admitted to owning an EV.
I can now join them, its just that mine does not work (yet).
Mick

You want to start a thread on the conversion.

 

[rederob]

As usual, my points aren't relevant, because you don't agree with them.

Your points don't have a future focus and neglect so many things that have actually happened.
For example, I expect Tesla to sell around 2 million vehicles in 2022
For example, you call NEV's a niche market yet low-paid Chinese can buy new NEVs because there are models from AU$8k upwards without a subsidy which are affordable for countless millions. Moreover there are literally several hundred model variations (there are apparently over 100 companies presently making NEVs, some clearly in very small quantity) so Chinese buyers have an incredibly wide choice for their purchases.

So when are you heading off to pick up the EV? It sounds to me that you would have already done so, with your obvious enthusiasm and religious like fervour.

Earlier in this thread I outlined the features I am after, and they won't be in models coming to Australia at the price point I'm looking at until around 2024-5.

Your post actually supports my reasoning, on a stock forum, where one would assume the members are fairly financially comfortable, you can only mention two obviously well off individuals to support your blather.

Again, that's a relic of availability in Australia. Australia is barely worth a mention on the world stage accounting for about 1.5% of annual global sales for all cars in 2020 (of which less than one percent are EVs), and one of the worst NEV rates of any western nation:

If the demand was as rampant as you say, many more on the forum would be buying an EV.

Why? Most of the models which are selling like hotcakes in China are not available here. That might change when the Ora and Dolphin models arrive, possibly later next year.
You might have missed Hyundai's website crash earlier this year when its Ioniq 5 went on sale in limited number. Hyundai have so few available it's again rationing purchases. Meanwhile VW has already said it's not particularly interested in bringing NEVs into Australia because the setting here make it a poor decision.
Elsewhere we have the Tesla optimist in Cathie Wood forecasting Tesla as able to capture 20% of all vehicle sales in 2025 which I estimate as around 12 million units. I think that's a long bow to draw, but she has the wood on me in relation to putting her money where her mouth leads and, as most forecasters have pegged Tesla for at least 1.3 million units in in 2022, the idea of doubling annual output is not foreign.

I am prepared to buy into a good argument, so when you put one up I will be happy to respond. So far all that's coming my way are regurgitations of old paradigms, yet we are now into a digital world where many former conventions no longer apply.

 

[sptrawler]

Your points don't have a future focus and neglect so many things that have actually happened.
For example, I expect Tesla to sell around 2 million vehicles in 2022
For example, you call NEV's a niche market yet low-paid Chinese can buy new NEVs because there are models from AU$8k upwards without a subsidy which are affordable for countless millions. Moreover there are literally several hundred model variations (there are apparently over 100 companies presently making NEVs, some clearly in very small quantity) so Chinese buyers have an incredibly wide choice for their purchases.

I said I'm looking at buying an EV, just because I don't want to ram it down people's throats doesn't mean, I don't think they are a sensible option.
I would expect Tesla to sell more cars next year than last year, same as I would expect more electric scooters to sell next year, than last year.
But saying "
Your points don't have a future focus and neglect so many things that have actually happened.
For example, I expect Tesla to sell around 2 million vehicles in 2022"
How can that comment make sense? neglect things that have happened, then give an example from next year. ?

I said currently they are a niche market, other than in countries that are heavily subsidising them, China is a market unto itself it can make cars to a price rather than a standard and it can make top of the line cars, just look on Aliexpress to see what is available at a budget price.
What that has to do with what is available in the Western countries, has no bearing on the issue, that currently they are relatively expensive.

Earlier in this thread I outlined the features I am after, and they won't be in models coming to Australia at the price point I'm looking at until around 2024-5.

Again, that's a relic of availability in Australia. Australia is barely worth a mention on the world stage accounting for about 1.5% of annual global sales for all cars in 2020 (of which less than one percent are EVs), and one of the worst NEV rates of any western nation:
View attachment 134354

Why? Most of the models which are selling like hotcakes in China are not available here. That might change when the Ora and Dolphin models arrive, possibly later next year.

They aren't available in most Western Countries and as even you say, you aren't prepared to buy one yet because it doesn't come with what you require and you are obviously besotted with them.
So as I said currently they are a niche market, it is growing and will continue to do so as regulations, public perceptions, infrastucture and price reductions come in.

You might have missed Hyundai's website crash earlier this year when its Ioniq 5 went on sale in limited number. Hyundai have so few available it's again rationing purchases. Meanwhile VW has already said it's not particularly interested in bringing NEVs into Australia because the setting here make it a poor decision.

That was 500 cars, as I've said this is a stock forum which would tend to attract fairly affluent people, yet only two have bought an EV, if that is reflective of upper middle class Australia, I don't know where you are getting all your excitement from.

Elsewhere we have the Tesla optimist in Cathie Wood forecasting Tesla as able to capture 20% of all vehicle sales in 2025 which I estimate as around 12 million units. I think that's a long bow to draw, but she has the wood on me in relation to putting her money where her mouth leads and, as most forecasters have pegged Tesla for at least 1.3 million units in in 2022, the idea of doubling annual output is not foreign.

I am prepared to buy into a good argument, so when you put one up I will be happy to respond. So far all that's coming my way are regurgitations of old paradigms, yet we are now into a digital world where many former conventions no longer apply.

You obviously aren't interested in an argument, because all yours just comprise of your future based predictions, mine are based on the state of play as it currently stands.

 

[sptrawler]

Interesting article on EV manufacturers market value.

Tesla valuation drops below $1 trillion

The electric vehicle specialist's market cap has collapsed by more than 20 per cent over the past eight weeks, however it still remains the world's most valuable car maker by a factor of almost four.

www.drive.com.au

From the article:
Since peaking at $US1229 ($AU1750) in early November, Tesla stock has fallen by approximately 22 per cent to $US958 ($AU1350).
This equates to a market cap of $962.60 billion ($AU1353) – down from $US1.25 trillion ($AU1.8 trillion) two months ago.
While the collapse is not insignificant, Tesla remains the world’s most valuable car maker by a a factor of almost four (and the sixth most valuable company outright).
Japanese marque Toyota trails in second place with a market cap of $US250 billion ($AU350 billion), while Chinese marque BYD sits in third with a market cap of $US134 billion ($AU190 billion).

 

[sptrawler]

As I said earlier in the thread, many manufacturers are increasing the cost of their ICE based vehicles, to bring them closer to the EV prices, this could be a good move, but also could backfire IMO.
Chinese manufacturers are dropping the entry price of their EV vehicles e.g the latest MG EV, this will bring them into the same space that the European and Japanese manufacturers are trying to place their ICE vehicles, should make for some interesting sales figures in the future IMO.

Volkswagen Polo price increase coming, no more base model

The Volkswagen Polo is the latest small car to lose its base model and cop a price increase.

www.drive.com.au

2021 Mitsubishi Outlander and Triton prices on the rise

Mitsubishi's updated Outlander and Triton models have seen price rises across the board.

www.drive.com.au

Honda Australia admits increasing prices after switch to 'non-negotiable' sales

Honda Australia says it increased RRPs by between $100 and $300, but research shows drive-away prices went up by as much as $5300 – and buyers now have less choice with a streamlined model range.

www.drive.com.au

Toyota price rises across the range

A few models got a price reduction but most increased

www.drive.com.au

From one of the above posts:
After almost half a decade priced from $15,990 drive-away, the new-generation Toyota Yaris is now in excess of $25,000 drive-away, and Hyundai and Ford have dropped their cheapest city cars except for the most expensive “hot hatch” models.

 

[JohnDe]

Interesting article on EV manufacturers market value.

Tesla valuation drops below $1 trillion

The electric vehicle specialist's market cap has collapsed by more than 20 per cent over the past eight weeks, however it still remains the world's most valuable car maker by a factor of almost four.

www.drive.com.au

From the article:
Since peaking at $US1229 ($AU1750) in early November, Tesla stock has fallen by approximately 22 per cent to $US958 ($AU1350).
This equates to a market cap of $962.60 billion ($AU1353) – down from $US1.25 trillion ($AU1.8 trillion) two months ago.
While the collapse is not insignificant, Tesla remains the world’s most valuable car maker by a a factor of almost four (and the sixth most valuable company outright).
Japanese marque Toyota trails in second place with a market cap of $US250 billion ($AU350 billion), while Chinese marque BYD sits in third with a market cap of $US134 billion ($AU190 billion).

Buy on the dip or sell before the crash, that is the question



Hopefully all the AussieStockForum investors got in early

 

[sptrawler]

Buy on the dip or sell before the crash, that is the question

I certainly can't see Tesla crashing, the big growth story is space X IMO, reusable rockets is a huge growth sector, that not many will want to get into, unlike putting electric motors on wheels.

 

[Jeda]

As I said earlier in the thread, many manufacturers are increasing the cost of their ICE based vehicles, to bring them closer to the EV prices, this could be a good move, but also could backfire IMO.
Chinese manufacturers are dropping the entry price of their EV vehicles e.g the latest MG EV, this will bring them into the same space that the European and Japanese manufacturers are trying to place their ICE vehicles, should make for some interesting sales figures in the future IMO.

Volkswagen Polo price increase coming, no more base model

The Volkswagen Polo is the latest small car to lose its base model and cop a price increase.

www.drive.com.au

2021 Mitsubishi Outlander and Triton prices on the rise

Mitsubishi's updated Outlander and Triton models have seen price rises across the board.

www.drive.com.au

Honda Australia admits increasing prices after switch to 'non-negotiable' sales

Honda Australia says it increased RRPs by between $100 and $300, but research shows drive-away prices went up by as much as $5300 – and buyers now have less choice with a streamlined model range.

www.drive.com.au

Toyota price rises across the range

A few models got a price reduction but most increased

www.drive.com.au

From one of the above posts:
After almost half a decade priced from $15,990 drive-away, the new-generation Toyota Yaris is now in excess of $25,000 drive-away, and Hyundai and Ford have dropped their cheapest city cars except for the most expensive “hot hatch” models.

Yeah car prices are crazy and this is a global issue

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah car prices are crazy and this is a global issue

Second hand prices going up due to supply issues, is a different issue to manufacturers dropping entry price cars from their range, so that the average entry price car becomes more expensive.

 

[sptrawler]

Buy on the dip or sell before the crash, that is the question

View attachment 134364

Hopefully all the AussieStockForum investors got in early

Interesting article on Bloomberg, I wonder if China is starting to put the pressure on the Tesla factory in Shanghai?
From all the encouragement by the Chinese Government, to open slather in State based newspapers etc, interesting times, maybe China is looking at getting a free factory?

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[rederob]

For example, I expect Tesla to sell around 2 million vehicles in 2022"
How can that comment make sense? neglect things that have happened, then give an example from next year.

It didn't because I missed adding this link - my bad!
Shanghai is already producing at over 600k/annum and its presently adding additional capacity.

I said currently they are a niche market, other than in countries that are heavily subsidising them,

What, so America isn't now a niche market, and Norway, and the EU generally through emissions incentives?
The 31 EV models currently available in Australia does not satisfy any definition of "niche" that I am aware. And Europe has twice as many available again.

China is a market unto itself it can make cars to a price rather than a standard and it can make top of the line cars, just look on Aliexpress to see what is available at a budget price.

That might have been true 5 years ago, but not now. You are confusing a segment of China's unregulated vehicle market with their first world production standards for Audi, Mercedes, Volvo and VW to name just a few brands aside from Tesla.

What that has to do with what is available in the Western countries, has no bearing on the issue, that currently they are relatively expensive.

Really? NEVs accounted for about 30% of car sales in Germany recently. What aspect of can't get enough isn't getting through because you are hung up on purchase price alone being the major inhibitor when total cost of ownership is actually less!

They aren't available in most Western Countries and as even you say, you aren't prepared to buy one yet because it doesn't come with what you require and you are obviously besotted with them.

This isn't a "personal" issue. NEVs are inevitable, but some atm are average to crappy. The electric MG is an example of very average, and the Zoe is an example of crap.

You obviously aren't interested in an argument, because all yours just comprise of your future based predictions, mine are based on the state of play as it currently stands.

Australia has an insignificant role in the NEV market and I can't see how much you have posted relates to global trends. Your "state of play" and mine are clearly in different ballparks as I have been focusing on the most probable impacts of transition wrt to both producer and purchaser behaviour at a global level.
My NEV interest actually relates more to Australia's role as a supplier of raw materials, particularly copper and nickel. Although if there was an easy way to buy shares in NIO or BYD I would have done this by now.
As I see the NEV sector, 2021 became the year of a step change for 2 key reasons. First is the comparative cheapness of LFP batteries with their DoD advantages over lithium ternary batteries and the fact they are produced at less than the $100/kWh threshold. Second is the fact that NEV automakers are capable of manufacturing them at similar price points to ICEvs, with only larger battery options pricing them higher.
It is certainly true that future events are not set in concrete and present trends could change markedly for some reason. I personally don't see the fact that my current car has another 20 years life left in it as a reason to keep that long if fuel isn't readily available and ICEvs are banned from cities. And the ball I have held back is autonomous driving.

 

[Jeda]

Second hand prices going up due to supply issues, is a different issue to manufacturers dropping entry price cars from their range, so that the average entry price car becomes more expensive.

Partly the problem another part is that cheap new cars are disappearing like you mention. The problem started a few years ago.

 

[Value Collector]

Yeah car prices are crazy and this is a global issue

It's affecting the rental car market too, I just booked a rental car for a trip to Florida I am making next year, and the prices are at least 50% higher than what I used to pay prior to covid.