Electric cars?

[sptrawler]

All the talk has been about the Tesla Cyberute, this Ford F 150 slipped under the radar.

Ford says it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for F-150 Lightning, or 3 years of backlog

Ford confirmed that it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. At this point,...

electrek.co

From the article:
Ford confirmed that it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. At this point, it represents roughly a three-year backlog. It might make it hard to get access to the vehicle.
Normally, we see a large number of reservations for a new EV early on, and it quickly tapers off. It looks like it’s not the case for the Ford F-150 Lightning.

Ford kept getting steady demand for the F-150 Lightning and added about 80,000 reservations for a total of 120,000 pre-orders by the end of July.

Last month, Ford reported 160,000 reservations for the electric pickup truck.

Now, just a month later, the automaker added an impressive 40,000 reservations for a total of around 200,000, according to a new presentation by Lisa Drake, Ford’s chief operating officer:

As we reported last month, a survey of F-150 reservation holders showed that 25% were replacing a gas-powered F-150 pickup truck.
40% are already EV owners and 11% are Tesla owners.

The demand is impressive, but it doesn’t sound like Ford is ready to meet it production-wise. Ford has previously shared plans to produce 15,000 Lightning trucks in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024.

 

[rederob]

All the talk has been about the Tesla Cyberute, this Ford F 150 slipped under the radar.

Ford says it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for F-150 Lightning, or 3 years of backlog

Ford confirmed that it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. At this point,...

electrek.co

From the article:
Ford confirmed that it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. At this point, it represents roughly a three-year backlog. It might make it hard to get access to the vehicle.
Normally, we see a large number of reservations for a new EV early on, and it quickly tapers off. It looks like it’s not the case for the Ford F-150 Lightning.

Ford kept getting steady demand for the F-150 Lightning and added about 80,000 reservations for a total of 120,000 pre-orders by the end of July.

Last month, Ford reported 160,000 reservations for the electric pickup truck.

Now, just a month later, the automaker added an impressive 40,000 reservations for a total of around 200,000, according to a new presentation by Lisa Drake, Ford’s chief operating officer:

As we reported last month, a survey of F-150 reservation holders showed that 25% were replacing a gas-powered F-150 pickup truck.
40% are already EV owners and 11% are Tesla owners.

The demand is impressive, but it doesn’t sound like Ford is ready to meet it production-wise. Ford has previously shared plans to produce 15,000 Lightning trucks in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024.

I think Ford will need to find a new battery supplier if it hopes to deliver on their orders any sooner. I read that the Cybertruck production delay was just as much to do will aligning with its massive battery needs of Tesla as anything else - such as a chip shortage - and that its plus-one million orders dwarfs all its rivals combined. Not only is the Cybertruck in huge demand, but an RV conversion company has taken US$100M in preorders as well!
GM's Hummer is ridiculously overpriced, but as for all things American, bigger is always better, so no doubt it will find some buyers.

 

[Value Collector]

All the talk has been about the Tesla Cyberute, this Ford F 150 slipped under the radar.

Ford says it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for F-150 Lightning, or 3 years of backlog

Ford confirmed that it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. At this point,...

electrek.co

From the article:
Ford confirmed that it now has nearly 200,000 reservations for its upcoming F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck. At this point, it represents roughly a three-year backlog. It might make it hard to get access to the vehicle.
Normally, we see a large number of reservations for a new EV early on, and it quickly tapers off. It looks like it’s not the case for the Ford F-150 Lightning.

Ford kept getting steady demand for the F-150 Lightning and added about 80,000 reservations for a total of 120,000 pre-orders by the end of July.

Last month, Ford reported 160,000 reservations for the electric pickup truck.

Now, just a month later, the automaker added an impressive 40,000 reservations for a total of around 200,000, according to a new presentation by Lisa Drake, Ford’s chief operating officer:

As we reported last month, a survey of F-150 reservation holders showed that 25% were replacing a gas-powered F-150 pickup truck.
40% are already EV owners and 11% are Tesla owners.

The demand is impressive, but it doesn’t sound like Ford is ready to meet it production-wise. Ford has previously shared plans to produce 15,000 Lightning trucks in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024.

Ford is limiting the range to 370kms due to not being able to produce enough batteries,… Cyber Truck range will be 800kms.

370kms range is still decent though

 

[sptrawler]

I personally think it is great there is plenty of demand for EV's, there is plenty of time for everyone to get into pizzing competition's, the more variety the better for the consumer. lol

 

[rederob]

I personally think it is great there is plenty of demand for EV's, there is plenty of time for everyone to get into pizzing competition's, the more variety the better for the consumer. lol

Almost any mention of "Tesla" nowadays is clickbait internationally irrespective of the quality of its content. And Elon Musk's ability to attract media attention guarantees Tesla sales in the absence of a marketing division within Tesla itself.
The same cannot be said of BYD.
A quick snapshot of the latest data on NEVs in China shows:

BYD's share in November was about 92k compared to Tesla's 53k.
Less known again is that BYD has an order backlog of over 200k units, which is remarkable because Chinese consumerism is largely driven by what's available now. Last week BYD literally turned the first sod to mark its construction of a US$2.4B facility to support its automaking (a side note is that BYD makes more from its mobile phones than it does from cars). Furthermore, while BYD has been able to accommodate its auto chip needs in the past - 55% of its semiconductors were dedicated to BYD Auto - it has recently done deals with 4 smaller chip suppliers to meet its 2022 needs.
What makes China nimble in manufacturing anything is how entrepreneurial they have become. The chart below shows almost 160k new business registrations for New Energy Vehicle related products, which was more than double the increase over last year:

I am mentioning this to highlight how China has gone about achieving manufacturing dominance in just about every sector it has dabbled in. And in the case of BYD, because it is producing EVs for around the same price as ICEVs, it's phasing out its ICEV production. I suspect that when the legacy automakers in joint ventures in China work this out, they will follow suit.

 

[JohnDe]

The Tesla Model 3 SR+ has received a significant update and is now fitted with a different battery pack.

The new “LFP” (Lithium-Iron-Phosphate) battery is cheaper, easier and more ethical to mine but less dense compared to Nickel-Cobalt-Aluminium.
So the pack size has increased to c.60kWh to compensate.

Also a fundamental difference is that the cars can be charged to 100% daily and not capped to 90%.

So why does all this mean for real world range, efficiency and charging capability?

These cars have a heat pump as standard plus double laminated front windows which should also help in this cold weather.

 

[Smurf1976]

PHEV are more economical and have excellent driving range, depending on what you want to use the car for. Your argument is akin to buying a Mini to tow a caravan. People usually buy a vehicle fit for purpose

My point is simply that for those on the thread referring to $5k cars and so on, well a $5k ICE most certainly is fit for purpose for driving anywhere on a sealed road or even a decent gravel one.

A $5k Chinese EV isn't a direct replacement for a $5k second hand ICE at present is my point. It serves a different purpose.

 

[Jeda]

My point is simply that for those on the thread referring to $5k cars and so on, well a $5k ICE most certainly is fit for purpose for driving anywhere on a sealed road or even a decent gravel one.

A $5k Chinese EV isn't a direct replacement for a $5k second hand ICE at present is my point. It serves a different purpose.

I wish I could find a decent $5000 car for the 17 year old living with us and about to get her licence

Prices of used cars have gone through the roof and very average quality at the moment.

 

[rederob]

A $5k Chinese EV isn't a direct replacement for a $5k second hand ICE at present is my point. It serves a different purpose

No, the Chinese BEV is a NEW car!
You seem to forget the NEV market is nascent.
You definitely can buy old ICEvs for $5k, but I doubt any NEVS are available for under $10k as even a cheap 8 year old Nissan Leaf is selling from $15k upwards. The cheapest Tesla I could find at carsales.com was a 2014 model at $almost $64k .
When (maybe "if") NEVs are selling for $5k at some point in the future then they will serve the same purpose that present ICEvs at that price point do.
I don't understand your points as they seem to overlook what a transition means.

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't understand your points as they seem to overlook what a transition means.

My argument is that EV sales will ramp up, ultimately replacing ICE sales, but it takes ~20 years to turn over most of the fleet meaning that significant numbers of ICE's will be on the roads past 2040 in practice. Since even if all ICE sales stopped right now, literally today, it would still be early 2040's before they're effectively gone.

Your argument if I've understood it correctly is that we'll see a much faster change with the ICE fleet scrapped well before it wears out and replaced with EV's due to their advantages.

My response is that whilst I acknowledge it's possible, it's unlikely in practice given that an EV built to a standard that's a direct replacement for an ICE car for most users, which requires that it's suited to highway travel, has a decent battery range and so on, is far too expensive for consumers to choose to scrap perfectly good ICE's and buy a new EV. There's a potential market for "city" type cars yes, but it's likely a fairly limited one given the consumer preference for SUV's and that even the cheapest ICE car has a range of several hundred km and is more than capable of highway travel.

That's not an argument against EV's, my point is simply that I'm expecting them to replace ICE cars in the normal manner and that there won't likely be any mass scrapping of ICE's that aren't near end of life.

Time will tell.....

 

[over9k]

My argument is that EV sales will ramp up, ultimately replacing ICE sales, but it takes ~20 years to turn over most of the fleet meaning that significant numbers of ICE's will be on the roads past 2040 in practice. Since even if all ICE sales stopped right now, literally today, it would still be early 2040's before they're effectively gone.

Your argument if I've understood it correctly is that we'll see a much faster change with the ICE fleet scrapped well before it wears out and replaced with EV's due to their advantages.

My response is that whilst I acknowledge it's possible, it's unlikely in practice given that an EV built to a standard that's a direct replacement for an ICE car for most users, which requires that it's suited to highway travel, has a decent battery range and so on, is far too expensive for consumers to choose to scrap perfectly good ICE's and buy a new EV. There's a potential market for "city" type cars yes, but it's likely a fairly limited one given the consumer preference for SUV's and that even the cheapest ICE car has a range of several hundred km and is more than capable of highway travel.

That's not an argument against EV's, my point is simply that I'm expecting them to replace ICE cars in the normal manner and that there won't likely be any mass scrapping of ICE's that aren't near end of life.

Time will tell.....

Yeah, it'll probably be like with LED bulbs - run the old style until it dies and then replace with the new.

 

[moXJO]

Is it just the battery component of evs that make them so expensive?

Electric motors and components shouldn't cost that much.

 

[over9k]

Is it just the battery component of evs that make them so expensive?

Electric motors and components shouldn't cost that much.

Yes. Long range 1500km battery packs exist already, they're just a quarter of a mil each. Hence why rolls royce, bentley etc are going full electric as you can put a 250k battery pack in a 500k car.

But an everyman 50-100k car... nope. Or at least, not unless you want to lose 6 figures on every sale.

 

[moXJO]

Remember those compressed air cars that were getting hype around 7 years ago. The only true green car. Well they still suck.

What’s the status of Compressed Air-Powered Vehicles?

In the blunder years of Youtube I remember seeing endless videos about ‘air-powered’ cars & engines. A lot of them involved perpetual motion, which my young brain attached onto obsessively. The…

hooniverse.com

 

[divs4ever]

Paris taxi firm suspends use of Tesla cars after fatal accident

Paris taxi firm suspends use of Tesla cars after fatal accident By Reuters

Paris taxi firm suspends use of Tesla cars after fatal accident

www.investing.com

 

[rederob]

My argument is that EV sales will ramp up, ultimately replacing ICE sales, but it takes ~20 years to turn over most of the fleet meaning that significant numbers of ICE's will be on the roads past 2040 in practice. Since even if all ICE sales stopped right now, literally today, it would still be early 2040's before they're effectively gone.

As I said, that is not what occurs during a transition phase. The lifespan of a legacy product is irrelevant and this is proven time and time again in the technology space. The only issue is how quickly can NEVs be produced as their demand is already beyond supply and neither economies of scale, supply chain nor (battery) technology has peaked, so costs will continue to decline while performance improves.

Your argument if I've understood it correctly is that we'll see a much faster change with the ICE fleet scrapped well before it wears out and replaced with EV's due to their advantages.

Not quite. The issues as I see them relate to various government policies relating to air quality ( eg. banning of diesel vehicles already planned and a trend to also ban all other ICEvs from cities in future years) and decarbonisation on one hand, and consumer/industry preference on the other.

My response is that whilst I acknowledge it's possible, it's unlikely in practice given that an EV built to a standard that's a direct replacement for an ICE car for most users, which requires that it's suited to highway travel, has a decent battery range and so on, is far too expensive for consumers to choose to scrap perfectly good ICE's and buy a new EV.

My response is that this is plain wrong thinking unless you have an Australian or American mindset and believe long distance highway travel capabilities are the arbiter of vehicle purchase decisions. That has not been the case in Europe for decades and has never been the case in most Asian nations where most of the world's population resides and is becoming increasingly more affluent and mobile.
The other point you seem to have overlooked is that Tesla's are already superior in most regards to ICEvs at their price point, while the new wave of Chinese NEVs are only more expensive on a vehicle equivalency basis if long range batteries are needed as LFPs are being produced below the magical ICEv melting point of $100/kWh.
So the question for all purchasers in coming years will be if they decide to buy another ICEv which will have a negligible resale value well before 2030, or buy a superior NEV for about the same price that will also be substantially cheaper to operate on an annual basis and have a decent resale value.

There's a potential market for "city" type cars yes, but it's likely a fairly limited one given the consumer preference for SUV's and that even the cheapest ICE car has a range of several hundred km and is more than capable of highway travel.

I think you have not been following the range of NEVs already in production, and the fact the NEV market is nascent so will continue to accommodate market demand as it ramps up production.

That's not an argument against EV's, my point is simply that I'm expecting them to replace ICE cars in the normal manner and that there won't likely be any mass scrapping of ICE's that aren't near end of life.

Your "normal manner" disappeared when Tesla first showed its Cybertruck. With orders already exceeding 1 million and supply not ramping up for another year, it shows that EV demand is exceptional, and well ahead of the peak benefits of adoption. That theme was recently repeated with Ford's F-150 Lightning being so popular they closed reservations because at their proposed production rate they would still be filling orders in 2025.
China's NEV data showing NEV sales in excess of 100% year on year is not a normal manner.
About the only thing normal that I can see is a poor knowledge of NEV developments by many westerners.
And the question that legacy automakers need to come to grips with is how far ahead will Chinese NEV automakers get before the GMs, Fords and Toyotas of the world begin match them. Tesla remains in a league of its own, and if they manage to knock out their proposed US$25k model in 2023 then their global vehicle production (not just based on EV adoption) leadership by 2030 is on the cards.

 

[JohnDe]

Yes. Long range 1500km battery packs exist already, they're just a quarter of a mil each. Hence why rolls royce, bentley etc are going full electric as you can put a 250k battery pack in a 500k car.

But an everyman 50-100k car... nope. Or at least, not unless you want to lose 6 figures on every sale.

There is no new petrol passenger car capable of 1500km on one tank of Unleaded.

The base Tesla is capable of about 400km on one charge - 2021 Tesla Model 3 Rear-Wheel Drive Auto $68,175 Indicative Drive Away

 

[rederob]

Yes. Long range 1500km battery packs exist already, they're just a quarter of a mil each. Hence why rolls royce, bentley etc are going full electric as you can put a 250k battery pack in a 500k car.

But an everyman 50-100k car... nope. Or at least, not unless you want to lose 6 figures on every sale.

Utter nonsense!
BEVs with tested actual 900km range already exist and cost less than AUD$80k.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes. Long range 1500km battery packs exist already, they're just a quarter of a mil each. Hence why rolls royce, bentley etc are going full electric as you can put a 250k battery pack in a 500k car.

But an everyman 50-100k car... nope. Or at least, not unless you want to lose 6 figures on every sale.

That is one of the most pertinent points, people will be reluctant to spend approx $70k on a car, when most of that cost is apportioned to the battery, which is a consumable and has a defined life expectancy.
Even those who are devotees of E.V's say that the costs of batteries will come down, therefore the purchase price of the vehicle will come down and the residual value of your E.V will plummet accordingly IMO.
With the current ICE powered cars, most are good for 20 years 250-300k's, so the residual reflects the remaining life expectancy, with E.V's there aren't enough on the road yet to get a realistic feel for the life cycle, so most people will be reluctant until the runs are on the board IMO.
Not many people can afford to pay $70k and find in 5 years time it is worth $10-$20k, I know a person down the road from us had a second hand Toyota Prius for sale for a long time, now they are still driving it obviously there was no interest.
I think it is one of those things that will take a while to gather speed, early uptakers have gone mental and bought all that are available, but I'm guessing once the dust settles, the pensive majority will take a longer term approach.
A bit like the Ford Mustang and the Holden Monaro, when they first came out they sold like hot cakes, then once everyone who absolutely wanted one had one, demand drops to normal levels.
The massive rush to pre order E.V's is similar IMO, those who really want one, just have to have it and have it now.
By the way, I'm thinking of buying a PHEV or EV in the new year, but I do like new technology.

 

[rederob]

That is one of the most pertinent points, people will be reluctant to spend approx $70k on a car, when most of that cost is apportioned to the battery, which is a consumable and has a defined life expectancy.
Even those who are devotees of E.V's say that the costs of batteries will come down, therefore the purchase price of the vehicle will come down and the residual value of your E.V will plummet accordingly IMO.
With the current ICE powered cars, most are good for 20 years 250-300k's, so the residual reflects the remaining life expectancy, with E.V's there aren't enough on the road yet to get a realistic feel for the life cycle, so most people will be reluctant until the runs are on the board IMO.
Not many people can afford to pay $70k and find in 5 years time it is worth $10-$20k, I know a person down the road from us had a second hand Toyota Prius for sale for a long time, now they are still driving it obviously there was no interest.
I think it is one of those things that will take a while to gather speed, early uptakers have gone mental and bought all that are available, but I'm guessing once the dust settles, the pensive majority will take a longer term approach.
A bit like the Ford Mustang and the Holden Monaro, when they first came out they sold like hot cakes, then once everyone who absolutely wanted one had one, demand drops to normal levels.
The massive rush to pre order E.V's is similar IMO, those who really want one, just have to have it and have it now.

What's all this rubbish about expensive EVs when they are already being manufactured at ICEv prices?
If you want to look at NEV residual prices try buying a used Tesla today. While earlier in this thread I priced a used Nissan Leaf, which is really crappy, and it also had a high residual value compared to any ICEv of same age.
Your argument about demand dropping is completely voided by the Tesla car experience. Tesla cannot get them out fast enough and they are vehicles above our "luxury car" price point.
It's all good and well to have opinions, but how about basing them on what is actually happening today.
When cities announce bans on FF vehicles, as they are continuing to do, who is going to want to retain their old gas guzzler?
Not only don't the maths add up for ICEvs on affordability at todays prices, but the rationale for continuing to own one will have disappeared well before 2030.