Electric cars?

[sptrawler]

It didn't because I missed adding this link - my bad!
Shanghai is already producing at over 600k/annum and its presently adding additional capacity.

As I said in my post:
China is a market unto itself it can make cars to a price rather than a standard and it can make top of the line cars, just look on Aliexpress to see what is available at a budget price.
What that has to do with what is available in the Western countries, has no bearing on the issue, that currently they are relatively expensive.

What, so America isn't now a niche market, and Norway, and the EU generally through emissions incentives?
The 31 EV models currently available in Australia does not satisfy any definition of "niche" that I am aware. And Europe has twice as many available again.

EV's as a percentage of new cars sold in the U.S is still niche, yes.

Sales of electric vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, are projected to be less than 4% of U.S. sales this year, according to industry forecasters. Of those, all-electric models — such as Teslas — are only at 2.6% of the market, or about 394,000 vehicles, according to LMC.26 Oct 2021

That might have been true 5 years ago, but not now. You are confusing a segment of China's unregulated vehicle market with their first world production standards for Audi, Mercedes, Volvo and VW to name just a few brands aside from Tesla.

Really? NEVs accounted for about 30% of car sales in Germany recently. What aspect of can't get enough isn't getting through because you are hung up on purchase price alone being the major inhibitor when total cost of ownership is actually less!

This isn't a "personal" issue. NEVs are inevitable, but some atm are average to crappy. The electric MG is an example of very average, and the Zoe is an example of crap.

It obviously is a personal issue, by your absolute fevour on the subject.
Everyone knows that E.V's are inevitable and are a certainty, due to the World wide push.
For most people though, it isn't a religious calling to support the cause in a manic manner, as it obviously is for you.

Australia has an insignificant role in the NEV market and I can't see how much you have posted relates to global trends. Your "state of play" and mine are clearly in different ballparks as I have been focusing on the most probable impacts of transition wrt to both producer and purchaser behaviour at a global level.
My NEV interest actually relates more to Australia's role as a supplier of raw materials, particularly copper and nickel. Although if there was an easy way to buy shares in NIO or BYD I would have done this by now.

I have quite a lot of financial exposure to battery materials, so I don't understand where you are making the assumptions I don't think that EV's are a real and present happening, I just try and apply a modicum of common sense and logistical analysis to my assumptions.

As I see the NEV sector, 2021 became the year of a step change for 2 key reasons. First is the comparative cheapness of LFP batteries with their DoD advantages over lithium ternary batteries and the fact they are produced at less than the $100/kWh threshold. Second is the fact that NEV automakers are capable of manufacturing them at similar price points to ICEvs, with only larger battery options pricing them higher.
It is certainly true that future events are not set in concrete and present trends could change markedly for some reason. I personally don't see the fact that my current car has another 20 years life left in it as a reason to keep that long if fuel isn't readily available and ICEvs are banned from cities. And the ball I have held back is autonomous driving.

At last something that we can agree on, I will probably have an EV before you, that would be ironic wouldn't it.

 

[qldfrog]

You want to start a thread on the conversion.

would genuinely be interested in a thread Mike
, if i stay, that would be a project I would be interested..no mistake, a rich kid toy play, but hey, fun is not yet completely forbidden, just taxed

 

[sptrawler]

would genuinely be interested in a thread Mike
, if i stay, that would be a project I would be interested..no mistake, a rich kid toy play, but hey, fun is not yet completely forbidden, just taxed

Mick has started one in the general chat thread.

Micks EV conversion​

 

[qldfrog]

Mick has started one in the general chat thread.

Micks EV conversion​

thanks, I am on my way

 

[rederob]

I have quite a lot of financial exposure to battery materials, so I don't understand where you are making the assumptions I don't think that EV's are a real and present happening, I just try and apply a modicum of common sense and logistical analysis to my assumptions.

I only query your points about where the global NEV sector sits and the rationale for anyone's purchasing decisions into the future.
I can find no evidence that EVs are expensive per se except where they are sold in small numbers. For example in Europe SEAT, Renault, VW, Mini Cooper and Ford have affordable offerings between €20k and €25k. They are not what I would regard value for money, but the point is that Europe is a larger and more "electric" car market than USA. And while America is late to the party, their BEV sales volumes in 2021 have been very strong (except for GM's substandard Volt):

BEV registrations in the U.S. - January-October 2021​

• Tesla Model Y - 134,504 (up 182%; 35.5% of all BEVs)
• Tesla Model 3 - 112,314 (up 39%; 29.7% of all BEVs)
• Chevrolet Bolt EV/EUV - 23,041 (up 47%)
• Ford Mustang Mach-E - 20,518 (new)
• Volkswagen ID.4 - 13,787 (new)
• Tesla Model S - 12,272 (up 9.4%)
• Nissan LEAF - 11,933 (up 100%)
• Hyundai Kona Electric - 8,620 (up 265%)
• Porsche Taycan (all versions) - 7,818 (up 156%)
• Kia Niro EV - 6,749 (up 210%)
• other - 26,910
• Total - 378,466 (up 94%)

 

[sptrawler]

As I've said on numerous occasions, EV's are a fact of life whether people like it or not, eventually it will be forced on people as is the vaccine.

But that wont happen quickly and by that I mean in the next 5 years, maybe by 2035 or so, when the infrastructure and the production capability is such that the EV's supply is available, the electrical infrastructure is set up and the supply of ICE vehicles has dwindled to the point of being niche.

That will happen as the EU, UK, Japan and China force the closure of ICE production, sourcing RHD ICE vehicle suppliers will become a problem and by then price parity will have probably been achieved IMO, so it will just be a natural progression.

The SEAT, Renault, VW, Mini Cooper and Ford have affordable offerings between €20k and €25k, are stop gap models which have terrible range and are based on an ICE platform, my guess is smaller city cars will end up being available with the ability to have on street charge or have battery swap format, to cater for high density living.
The U.S has some rather large subsidies in place for EV's, but they are going to be a hard market to crack without increasing regulation and the price of fuel, it is still very cheap there.

 

[qldfrog]

I think the focus on price is irrelevant, once you put EVs in the context of the Reset, the aim is NOT to make EV affordable, but not affordable, EVs have to be shared and controlled aka taxi style without the driver
And in that context, the demand will be controlled by the offer:
aka, you stay home, in front of your screen,and have a METAVERSE holiday..'cause you can not afford the UBEREV or whatever will dominate by then
Individual freedom of movement on a massive scale was a blip in human history, and will remain so it seem.
an historic reminder:
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/arts/19iht-blume.html 1936 for the first paid holidays, so just before 2nd world war, it then spread in the west bringing as well demand for cars, pushing the women into working position and bringing in immigration to provide the workforce and push productivity/demand

Go back to your kennels peons
Chinese workers will have a few decades extra, we will be back to the bicycles before them

 

[JohnDe]

 

[sptrawler]

I think the focus on price is irrelevant, once you put EVs in the context of the Reset, the aim is NOT to make EV affordable, but not affordable, EVs have to be shared and controlled aka taxi style without the driver
And in that context, the demand will be controlled by the offer:
aka, you stay home, in front of your screen,and have a METAVERSE holiday..'cause you can not afford the UBEREV or whatever will dominate by then
Individual freedom of movement on a massive scale was a blip in human history, and will remain so it seem.
an historic reminder:
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/19/arts/19iht-blume.html 1936 for the first paid holidays, so just before 2nd world war, it then spread in the west bringing as well demand for cars, pushing the women into working position and bringing in immigration to provide the workforce and push productivity/demand
View attachment 134376View attachment 134377
Go back to your kennels peons
Chinese workers will have a few decades extra, we will be back to the bicycles before them

Hopefully it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

I do believe city people will have less and less cars, as population densities increase, Governments will have to increase public transport and autonomous taxis.

 

[Smurf1976]

My response is that this is plain wrong thinking unless you have an Australian or American mindset and believe long distance highway travel capabilities are the arbiter of vehicle purchase decisions.

This is an Australian forum so I'm assuming that Australia is the primary focus in terms of whether or not someone would buy one etc.

That said, even in Europe most cars are more than capable of being driven on a motorway. The market for vehicles which can't reasonably do that isn't zero but it isn't the majority either.

As I said, that is not what occurs during a transition phase. The lifespan of a legacy product is irrelevant and this is proven time and time again in the technology space.

In the specific case of vehicles we've already had a tech revolution and it hasn't lead to that scenario playing out at all.

Not that long ago the average car came with a drivetrain, wheels, brakes, heater, wipers, lights and a radio and that was about it really. The old Smiths demister was stuck on the rear window if you wanted one.

Then along came electronic fuel injection.

Unleaded petrol and catalytic converters.

Seat belt pre-tensioners and crumple zones.

It was an actual news item when the first mainstream cars with an airbag came out.

Then there's 4 wheel disc brakes.

Power steering.

Air-conditioning.

ABS

Electronic stability control.

Any kind of security system.

Getting even passable performance on a modern crash safety test.

And so on. All these and more were distinct features in the relatively recent past and many simply were not available at any price on any car. Just one generation ago the average car was a featureless death trap compared to even the most basic modern vehicle. It also belched a toxic cocktail out the exhaust and drank petrol like it was free.

None of that improvement saw a mass scrapping of the existing fleet though, it just turned over gradually as it always has. The old gas guzzler that drank 17 litres of Super per 100 km, had no safety features apart from seat belts and didn't even have power steering still lived out its ~20 year lifespan in practice.

Why will EV's be different?

What's going to drive manufacturers to invest in so much production capacity that the price of their cars outright crashes to a point well below that of an equivalent ICE, the entire ICE fleet is replaced quickly, then there's basically no demand for further vehicles for the next decade? That seems an incredibly unlikely scenario.

 

[qldfrog]

This is an Australian forum so I'm assuming that Australia is the primary focus in terms of whether or not someone would buy one etc.

That said, even in Europe most cars are more than capable of being driven on a motorway. The market for vehicles which can't reasonably do that isn't zero but it isn't the majority either.



In the specific case of vehicles we've already had a tech revolution and it hasn't lead to that scenario playing out at all.

Not that long ago the average car came with a drivetrain, wheels, brakes, heater, wipers, lights and a radio and that was about it really. The old Smiths demister was stuck on the rear window if you wanted one.

Then along came electronic fuel injection.

Unleaded petrol and catalytic converters.

Seat belt pre-tensioners and crumple zones.

It was an actual news item when the first mainstream cars with an airbag came out.

Then there's 4 wheel disc brakes.

Power steering.

Air-conditioning.

ABS

Electronic stability control.

Any kind of security system.

Getting even passable performance on a modern crash safety test.

And so on. All these and more were distinct features in the relatively recent past and many simply were not available at any price on any car. Just one generation ago the average car was a featureless death trap compared to even the most basic modern vehicle. It also belched a toxic cocktail out the exhaust and drank petrol like it was free.

None of that improvement saw a mass scrapping of the existing fleet though, it just turned over gradually as it always has. The old gas guzzler that drank 17 litres of Super per 100 km, had no safety features apart from seat belts and didn't even have power steering still lived out its ~20 year lifespan in practice.

Why will EV's be different?

What's going to drive manufacturers to invest in so much production capacity that the price of their cars outright crashes to a point well below that of an equivalent ICE, the entire ICE fleet is replaced quickly, then there's basically no demand for further vehicles for the next decade? That seems an incredibly unlikely scenario.

Why will EV's be different?

Because we do not have enough resource on planet level nor wealth in the west to do a one for one switch, so ICE will be forcibly removed and replaced by a smaller number of dearer EVs And these EVs will have a forced obsolescence, .based on good looking attention: your 10y old tesla is not efficient enough or just shitty batteries. ..forcing the removal of what would be affordable second hand fleets

 

[rederob]

This is an Australian forum so I'm assuming that Australia is the primary focus in terms of whether or not someone would buy one etc.
That said, even in Europe most cars are more than capable of being driven on a motorway. The market for vehicles which can't reasonably do that isn't zero but it isn't the majority either.

How is that relevant? NEVs can be driven on highways.
That said, the trends I have consistently alluded to are not playing out in Australia because we are inconsequential at present and may stay that way until policies are in place for NEV automakers want to sell their vehicles here. VW is on the record as saying it would be a poor commercial decision to sell in Australia versus Europe, and as the biggest automaker in the world by revenue their stance is not trivial.

In the specific case of vehicles we've already had a tech revolution and it hasn't lead to that scenario playing out at all.

So your car has regenerative braking, allows you to control its functions by voice command, and will soon accommodate autonomous driving, does it?

None of that improvement saw a mass scrapping of the existing fleet though, it just turned over gradually as it always has. The old gas guzzler that drank 17 litres of Super per 100 km, had no safety features apart from seat belts and didn't even have power steering still lived out its ~20 year lifespan in practice.

I have never mentioned "mass scrapping". Its not relevant.
By early 2022, based on sales data trends, Teslas in America will be the preferred choice of car in their luxury market. There will be a resale market for their trade ins, but in such an environment it's obvious that these resale values will continue to plummet over time. The Norwegian experience is likely to be progressively replicated around the world.
The expectation for NEVs is that their sales trend will follow the "S" shaped curve for innovation, so you still may have an ICEV sitting in the garage but, like your old mobile phone, you are unlikely to use it again.

What's going to drive manufacturers to invest in so much production capacity that the price of their cars outright crashes to a point well below that of an equivalent ICE, the entire ICE fleet is replaced quickly, then there's basically no demand for further vehicles for the next decade? That seems an incredibly unlikely scenario.

??? I don't understand this.
Legacy automakers have already committed to NEV production. In the case of BYD they are almost entirely NEV now because their production cost were less than for ICEvs and only battery size options have become their differentiator.
The pivot of any legacy automaker to NEVs will take many years to ramp up to prior ICEv production rates. And in any case as it stands we do not yet have in the pipeline enough GWh battery manufacturing capacity to meet automaker's planned NEV output, so that's going to be a constraint on the pace of change. So too will be raw material availability. In this attached report we are already tracking at or above their "fast forward" projections, so copper supply is going to have to ramp up markedly or NEV production will run the recent path of the chip shortage and take a breather until it does.

There are many forecasts about where NEV numbers will lie in 2025 and 2030, and beyond. They all have lots of caveats as well. Uptake rates here could go through the roof after 2025 - or not - just as they could in 2022-23 with the right policy settings. Irrespective of what happens here, production of NEVs at scale (which Tesla has yet to fully achieve) will continue to lower costs, battery technology improvement will increase energy densities and also lower costs, and technological advances will continue to make driving safer.

 

[mullokintyre]

US car maker GM has run into a few difficulties in its slow jog to catch up with others in the EV market.
After having to do a second recall back in July on it Chevvy Bolt EV due to a potential fire risk, it now says it will not restart the Bolt production line until at least february as it works through the recall repairs on the Bolts sold prior to the recall.
From Detroit News

General Motors Co.'s Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV production will remain down through February at the automaker's Orion Assembly plant in Lake Orion, GM said Thursday.
The automaker has been prioritizing the output of new battery modules for the recalled EVs instead of making new vehicles.
GM has mostly kept Orion Assembly production down since it announced the recall of more than 141,000 Bolts for battery fire risk in August. The automaker did reopen the plant for a couple of weeks in November to make replacement Bolts for customers awaiting recall repairs.

“GM has notified employees at Orion Assembly the plant will extend downtime through February 2022 to continue prioritizing recall repairs," GM spokesman Dan Flores said in a statement. "We will continue to inform employees at the appropriate time of any additional production schedule adjustments, as we continue to focus on battery module replacements.”
The Detroit News has learned GM plans to eventually transition the plant to make electric trucks based off of its new Ultium electric platform. The automaker submitted a tax-exemption request to Orion Township this month to invest $160 million for a new battery pack assembly line at the plant.

That last bit is another example of Vaporware in the EV market.
According to GM news they plan to launch 30 new EVs by 2025.

General Motors has been busy at work, following its plan to launch 30 new EVs by 2025. In recent news we’ve learned that the upcoming Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck is set to debut at CES 2022, and that an Ultium-based Chevy Equinox EV crossover is currently in the works. In addition, General Motors President Mark Reuss has also confirmed that a Chevy Blazer EV is also under development, and will also utilize Ultium battery and Ultium drive technology.

Given its adoption of the Ultium-platform, it’s safe to say that the next-gen Chevrolet Blazer will be quite different than the current-gen model. While no official timeframe has been provided for its introduction or sale date, the Blazer EV could appear as early as 2023 for the 2024 model year.

Lets hope the new Blazer is an improvement on the old one. I drove one for a week when I was last in the US.
Absolute garbage of a car.
The Equinox I swapped it for was much better, but not outstanding.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

USA police forces -

 

[Value Collector]

Hopefully it doesn't happen in my lifetime.

I do believe city people will have less and less cars, as population densities increase, Governments will have to increase public transport and autonomous taxis.

It depends what sort of growth happens, in general we have just kept inflating the “suburbs” around the cities fringe, and that kinda of growth requires cars.

 

[sptrawler]

It depends what sort of growth happens, in general we have just kept inflating the “suburbs” around the cities fringe, and that kinda of growth requires cars.

Most Governments are trying to reverse the urban sprawl and use infill housing and high density living, whether they succeed is another question.

Housing

The Department of Communities operates across the construction, property finance and human services sectors to create affordable housing opportunities for people who would otherwise have difficulty accessing appropriate housing.

www.housing.wa.gov.au

Walking distance the grail as urban infill continues

The University of New South Wales has touted them as the gold standard of urban planning, but moves to create 20-minute suburbs in Western Australia seem slow going.

thewest.com.au

Also as is happening in Perth, the rail network is being extended to the fringe suburbs, to try and encourage the use of public transport.

Yanchep Rail Extension

www.metronet.wa.gov.au

Byford Rail Extension

www.metronet.wa.gov.au

Thornlie-Cockburn Link

www.metronet.wa.gov.au

Morley-Ellenbrook Line

www.metronet.wa.gov.au

 

[JohnDe]

Ok, so all the bits for my EV conversion arrived today.
It will take me a month just to do the inventory and read the installation manual.
I haven't even finished the body work yet.
So much fun to be had.
from what i have gleaned, only Value collector and John De have admitted to owning an EV.
I can now join them, its just that mine does not work (yet).
Mick

Sound like a nice project.



MANUAL Electric Porsche 356 Review

The Electrogenic 356 is no ordinary Porsche restomod. This one might look like the original, but there is one big change: it’s been electrified. Now, in most cases, electrification is carried out in order to improve efficiency, but in the case of this electrogenic 356, electrification has also been applied to improve FUN

 

[rederob]

Most Governments are trying to reverse the urban sprawl and use infill housing and high density living, whether they succeed is another question.

In relation to this thread, urban density lends itself to smaller cars with minimal driving range requirement.
In this regard small BEVs provide a very affordable solution.
As a brief aside, a friend who lived and worked in Tokyo for 3 years chose not to buy a car (nowhere to park it anyway) and instead used an app that was for all intents and purpose equivalent to a private car hire arrangement. In a world not too far away that car in Tokyo will be an NEV that autonomously drives to to the hirer, and by voice command then heads off to their chosen destination.

An often cited disadvantage of EVs is driving range and duration of recharge on longer trips. In this regard technology is coming on in leaps and bounds and 5 minute charging times are likely to be part of the BEV future. These innovations in the NEV market will affect design, production and cost in future as NEV anxieties will disappear and be replaced by digital communication and physical infrastructure that takes the worry out of driving anywhere.

 

[sptrawler]

In relation to this thread, urban density lends itself to smaller cars with minimal driving range requirement.
In this regard small BEVs provide a very affordable solution.
As a brief aside, a friend who lived and worked in Tokyo for 3 years chose not to buy a car (nowhere to park it anyway) and instead used an app that was for all intents and purpose equivalent to a private car hire arrangement. In a world not too far away that car in Tokyo will be an NEV that autonomously drives to to the hirer, and by voice command then heads off to their chosen destination.

An often cited disadvantage of EVs is driving range and duration of recharge on longer trips. In this regard technology is coming on in leaps and bounds and 5 minute charging times are likely to be part of the BEV future. These innovations in the NEV market will affect design, production and cost in future as NEV anxieties will disappear and be replaced by digital communication and physical infrastructure that takes the worry out of driving anywhere.

The other thing that will no doubt be being looked at, will be inductive charging, where a coil is embedded in a parking space either in a carpark or on the road where applicable.
it would be perfect in places like London, Tokyo etc where off street parking is limited, also if they had an EV taxi rank, everytime they park there it would be automatically taking on a charge.
The greatest advantage that EV's have over ICE vehicles is the ability to integrate technology, electric control ccts and motor control are far easier to modify than controlling the output of an internal combustion engine.
I was involved in a $90m DCS control system upgrade to a thermal process, the easy part was setting up the control loops that operated electrically motorised valves and drives, the hard part was setting up the fuel control as there is an inherent lag in the thermodynamic process and it changes with type and quality of fuel and its delivery system.
Just had a look, they are already into it.

World’s first public EV inductive charging trial underway in UK

On-street EV charging pioneer Char.gy begins inductive EV charging trial which has the potential to greatly simplify the charging experience.

thedriven.io

 

[JohnDe]

The other thing that will no doubt be being looked at, will be inductive charging, where a coil is embedded in a parking space either in a carpark or on the road where applicable.
it would be perfect in places like London, Tokyo etc where off street parking is limited, also if they had an EV taxi rank, everytime they park there it would be automatically taking on a charge.
The greatest advantage that EV's have over ICE vehicles is the ability to integrate technology, electric control ccts and motor control are far easier to modify than controlling the output of an internal combustion engine.

Small steps. It will be many years before we see a high voltage 400V-800V) inductive charging system that is efficient, safe and cheap enough to install in cities and towns, in country and urban.