Electric cars?

[over9k]

"Global electric vehicle supremacy will arrive by 2033 -- five years earlier than previously expected -- as tougher regulations and rising interest drive demand for zero-emission transportation, according to a new study.

Consultant Ernst & Young LLP now sees EV sales outpacing fossil fuel-burners in 12 years in Europe, China and the U.S. -- the world’s largest auto markets. And by 2045, non-EV sales are seen plummeting to less than 1% of the global car market, EY forecast using an AI-powered prediction tool".

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-cars-coming-faster-than-expected-study-shows


Will probably make most peoples' morning brief this evening but we'll see if tesla, nio et al bounce in response.

 

[sptrawler]

@sptrawler would be the man to ask about how the grid needs to change. I would guess it would actually be a lot better to have a higher baseload so there's less difference/change in draw over the 24 hour cycle but I'm only guessing.

I'm more into generation and some small scale distribution in islanded country towns, @Smurf1976 is the man when it comes to grid size distribution and energy flows.
But IMO, you are pretty well on the money over9k, charging the BEV's when the renewables are going to waste during the day and selling some of that stored capacity back to the energy retailers during evening peak, will be the desired outcome. As you say, flattening out the load curve.

If that is done successfully, the need for governments and the private sector to install storage will be reduced.
Storage is the key, so having BEV charging controlled remotely by a centralised body, is imperative IMO.
The biggest problem will be getting the cart before the horse and ending up with an ad hock charging system that is thrown together, to catch up with the number of E.V's being sold.
The best transmission grid software for BEV charging control and suitable charging infrastructure needs to be sorted and in service, before BEV's become mainstream. Also as you say, incentives to encourage people to charge smartly, will no doubt be rolled out.

In some small country towns that aren't covered by the grid, the advent of BEV's, will probably require a complete distribution and generation upgrade, it is certainly going to be an interesting 10 years.

 

[Smurf1976]

Simply adjusting power prices appropriately for peak vs off peak (or even three tiers) will make people self smart-charge.

In theory totally agreed.

In practice I'm not convinced.

Reason being that data available thus far shows that, whilst EV's are not yet common, the typical scenario is that the owner arrives home, plugs it in and it charges straight away. That's what's ringing the alarm bells since for rather a lot of consumers that time just happens to be right on the existing peak in electricity demand which is the issue.

Broadly speaking the electricity industry has similar concerns. Some network operators have engaged in a collective trial of an automated "smart" approach, in other cases retailers are trying to do it via pricing and so on.

Overall though there's significant concern and I'm not the only one with it: https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-needed-to-drive-ev-boom-20210621-p582tg.html

Origin Energy has called for governments to provide incentives for electric car smart chargers in garages to prevent motorists plugging in en masse during the peak evening demand period

The basic problem being that charging at ~6pm is the "natural" thing many will do, plug it in when they get home, but that's far from ideal given that to the extent there's spare capacity in existing infrastructure, it's primarily late at night and during the middle of the day.

It's an absolutely solvable problem I agree but, as with Origin and quite a few others, I do have concerns about getting consumers to actually do it.

 

[sptrawler]

In theory totally agreed.

In practice I'm not convinced.

Reason being that data available thus far shows that, whilst EV's are not yet common, the typical scenario is that the owner arrives home, plugs it in and it charges straight away. That's what's ringing the alarm bells since for rather a lot of consumers that time just happens to be right on the existing peak in electricity demand which is the issue.

Broadly speaking the electricity industry has similar concerns. Some network operators have engaged in a collective trial of an automated "smart" approach, in other cases retailers are trying to do it via pricing and so on.

Overall though there's significant concern and I'm not the only one with it: https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-needed-to-drive-ev-boom-20210621-p582tg.html



The basic problem being that charging at ~6pm is the "natural" thing many will do, plug it in when they get home, but that's far from ideal given that to the extent there's spare capacity in existing infrastructure, it's primarily late at night and during the middle of the day.

It's an absolutely solvable problem I agree but, as with Origin and quite a few others, I do have concerns about getting consumers to actually do it.

Which is what I was alluding to.

The best transmission grid software for BEV charging control and suitable charging infrastructure needs to be sorted and in service, before BEV's become mainstream.

In reality when people get home and plug in is exactly when the system needs the EV's storage, so software needs to be developed to take a percentage of the BEV's storage, that is the software energy companies have to develop.
The chargers have to be smart enough to be able to work off an app, that may work like this: O.K how much of your EV storage are you prepared to allocate tonight e.g 20%, 30% etc (there has to be an emergency stop function), then when the EV is plugged in that much is available. If the battery is too low, the customer is charged a penalty rate.
But the app will have to be able to be responsive to live time data changes eg if I may need to take the wife to hospital tonight cancel the allocation, so the chargers and the software has to be very smooth, not clunky as is usually supplied by the lowest tender.
It is going to be critical that real time monitoring and a very clever application is developed, this is how the grid will evolve to renewables IMO.
Also the very reason I say we have to get it right first time, it will be a cluster fluck, if this isn't done right, unlike the E.U we don't have an extension cord to other countries grid systems.
Also the reason why not going headlong into it, is going to end up with a much better outcome IMO, this could actually make Australia at the forefront of EV integration if done well.
Just my thoughts.

 

[over9k]

In theory totally agreed.

In practice I'm not convinced.

Reason being that data available thus far shows that, whilst EV's are not yet common, the typical scenario is that the owner arrives home, plugs it in and it charges straight away. That's what's ringing the alarm bells since for rather a lot of consumers that time just happens to be right on the existing peak in electricity demand which is the issue.

Broadly speaking the electricity industry has similar concerns. Some network operators have engaged in a collective trial of an automated "smart" approach, in other cases retailers are trying to do it via pricing and so on.

Overall though there's significant concern and I'm not the only one with it: https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-needed-to-drive-ev-boom-20210621-p582tg.html



The basic problem being that charging at ~6pm is the "natural" thing many will do, plug it in when they get home, but that's far from ideal given that to the extent there's spare capacity in existing infrastructure, it's primarily late at night and during the middle of the day.

It's an absolutely solvable problem I agree but, as with Origin and quite a few others, I do have concerns about getting consumers to actually do it.

Sure but that's at current prices.

Again, just adjust them until you get the desired effect.

 

[qldfrog]

Which is what I was alluding to.

In reality when people get home and plug in is exactly when the system needs the EV's storage, so software needs to be developed to take a percentage of the BEV's storage, that is the software energy companies have to develop.
The chargers have to be smart enough to be able to work off an app, that may work like this: O.K how much of your EV storage are you prepared to allocate tonight e.g 20%, 30% etc (there has to be an emergency stop function), then when the EV is plugged in that much is available. If the battery is too low, the customer is charged a penalty rate.
But the app will have to be able to be responsive to live time data changes eg if I may need to take the wife to hospital tonight cancel the allocation, so the chargers and the software has to be very smooth, not clunky as is usually supplied by the lowest tender.
It is going to be critical that real time monitoring and a very clever application is developed, this is how the grid will evolve to renewables IMO.
Also the very reason I say we have to get it right first time, it will be a cluster fluck, if this isn't done right, unlike the E.U we don't have an extension cord to other countries grid systems.
Also the reason why not going headlong into it, is going to end up with a much better outcome IMO, this could actually make Australia at the forefront of EV integration if done well.
Just my thoughts.

All good on paper and principle,but can it possibly work? I have serious doubt
Buses,trucks,taxis will have to be out as they drive all day and even finding a 6h slot to charge will be hard.
They will consume a lot

So rough number 40+% of current ice consumption will be unable to participate
Of the the 59ish% left, how many will be able to participate?
And how long before they realise they are the suckers in the game,they buy the assets,which is used and degraded outside their control, and they bear the costs and inconvenience.
Anyway, so much wrong with this ev push . ideology before fact is the repeat scheme
https://www.budgetdirect.com.au/car-insurance/research/average-fuel-consumption-australia.html
Both my ute and all cars consumption are 30% below the average consumption noted here.
And they are not small or new....so do not expect the future ev owners to be more considerate.

 

[qldfrog]

So the way it will go:
The grid will collapse and the uber green vegan EV toorak tractors and Tesla will be blamed and scratched,while the commoners leaf style EV will be stuck at home with flat batteries

 

[qldfrog]

So the way it will go:
The grid will collapse and the uber green vegan EV toorak tractors and Tesla will be blamed and scratched,while the commoners leaf style EV will be stuck at home with flat batteries

What i mean to say is that replacing the whole ice fleet with ev for environmental reason is a pipe dream, both in term of infrastructure, electric energy production and current battery components.
Yes it may change, if we develop batteries made with thin air iron or carbon, whatever is cheap and common.
But as is, we sell the idea of every car replaced by a Tesla style car in 10 to 15y and this will/can not physically happen.
Remember we are living in a country where it takes 5y to build a pedestrian bridge over the brisbane river.
But if forced?under duress we will act...
Well we close the Mater hospital to routine surgery this week due to planned common flu surge, 1.5 y after a world pandemic spared us...
Just putting back hard truth back in the debate and it is not pleasant...

 

[Value Collector]

In theory totally agreed.

In practice I'm not convinced.

Reason being that data available thus far shows that, whilst EV's are not yet common, the typical scenario is that the owner arrives home, plugs it in and it charges straight away. That's what's ringing the alarm bells

Charging doesn’t have to begin when the car is first plugged in though.

for example I just got home now and plugged my car in, but it isn’t programmed to begin charging until tomorrow at 9am.

with Tesla’s you pick what ever charge time you want, and that’s when the car begins charging.

Eg. you can set it to start charging at say 11pm when you know that your provider gives you cheap rates, and then it doesn’t matter if you plug it in at 5pm when you get home, because it won’t start charging till 11pm.

Or you can set it to finish charging at a certain time eg 6am in the morning, the car will then calculate what time it needs to begin charging to make sure it finishes at exactly 6am for you, so if it only needs 2 hours to charge it will begin at 4am if it needs 5 hours it will begin at 1 am etc.

 

[Value Collector]

Also, Tesla’s can accept any AC charge from 1kwh through to 22 kWhs. (Dc charging up to 180kwh)

so another strategy could be that smart chargers controlled by the energy company could not only control when cars begin charging, but could speed up or slow down charge rates as needed to manage the demand.

 

[sptrawler]

Charging doesn’t have to begin when the car is first plugged in though.

for example I just got home now and plugged my car in, but it isn’t programmed to begin charging until tomorrow at 9am.

with Tesla’s you pick what ever charge time you want, and that’s when the car begins charging.

Eg. you can set it to start charging at say 11pm when you know that your provider gives you cheap rates, and then it doesn’t matter if you plug it in at 5pm when you get home, because it won’t start charging till 11pm.

Or you can set it to finish charging at a certain time eg 6am in the morning, the car will then calculate what time it needs to begin charging to make sure it finishes at exactly 6am for you, so if it only needs 2 hours to charge it will begin at 4am if it needs 5 hours it will begin at 1 am etc.

I don't think smurf was talking about Tesla owners, who are generally high income earning yuppies, or self funded 40 year olds.
I think he was referring to, how the general public driving a very base model of affordable E.V doing the Monday to Friday 8 to 5 grind, will probably charge their low cost Chinese BEV.

so another strategy could be that smart chargers controlled by the energy company could not only control when cars begin charging, but could speed up or slow down charge rates as needed to manage the demand.

That is what smurf and I are talking about.

 

[Smurf1976]

Charging doesn’t have to begin when the car is first plugged in though.

No argument there on the technical side.

The basic concern is that for the majority of consumers who are on flat rate pricing, they have no idea that there's even a reason why they ought to avoid charging at certain times and, even if they are aware, the only reason they'll do so is "do the right thing" sort of thinking since they personally gain no benefit from doing so.

Hence the concern of Origin and others than in practice consumers probably won't do so, they'll just plug in and it charges straight away. Not a problem if that's midnight when they get home or it's 10am or whatever but big problem if it's 6pm and it's no secret that's exactly when rather a lot of people do in practice arrive home. Indeed that's why electricity demand peaks just after 6 - it's a large group of people arriving home, turning on the heating, cooking dinner and so on.

The underlying technical issue there being best explained by saying that existing infrastructure has plenty of ability to supply the energy required to charge EV's so long as it's not at the existing peak. If it is at the peak then we're up for $ billions in upgrades and so on, hence the desire of people like me to avoid that since it seems a silly waste both economically and environmentally given there's a simple workaround by charging at a different time.

The issue isn't about what can be done technically, it's about getting it done noting that the extreme politics surrounding the situation is such that public discussion on the technical and practical aspects is extremely difficult.

If it was just a straight technical thing then sure, easily done.

 

[over9k]

I know I keep labouring this point, but I just don't see how the right pricing structure and a smart charger wouldn't solve this?

 

[sptrawler]

I know I keep labouring this point, but I just don't see how the right pricing structure and a smart charger wouldn't solve this?

It will, but the smart charging infrastructure is only just starting to be developed, Origin and AGL have only recently commenced trails, if you read back through the thread.

 

[Smurf1976]

I know I keep labouring this point, but I just don't see how the right pricing structure and a smart charger wouldn't solve this?

A smart charger and associated pricing structure would solve it yes.

What the problem is, is summed up by Origin's research finding that 60% of existing EV users aren't actually doing that, they're just using a "dumb" charger that charges there and then and doing so most commonly during the evening when electricity demand for other uses is high.

That bit is what rings the alarm bells on the technical side. If that 60% continues to be the case as EV's become mainstream well the existing infrastructure is nowhere near adequate to cope without major upgrades being done.

How to get the 40% of consumers choosing a smarter approach to become the vast majority, in an environment where the focus of consumers is on lower priced options (smart chargers aren't cheap) and the entire issue is engulfed in politics, is what has thus far been the problem.

My argument isn't one against EV's but it's about how society can get the maximum benefits from them.

 

[over9k]

A smart charger and associated pricing structure would solve it yes.

What the problem is, is summed up by Origin's research finding that 60% of existing EV users aren't actually doing that, they're just using a "dumb" charger that charges there and then and doing so most commonly during the evening when electricity demand for other uses is high.

That bit is what rings the alarm bells on the technical side. If that 60% continues to be the case as EV's become mainstream well the existing infrastructure is nowhere near adequate to cope without major upgrades being done.

How to get the 40% of consumers choosing a smarter approach to become the vast majority, in an environment where the focus of consumers is on lower priced options (smart chargers aren't cheap) and the entire issue is engulfed in politics, is what has thus far been the problem.

My argument isn't one against EV's but it's about how society can get the maximum benefits from them.

Yes but that's at current price structure/scheduling no?

 

[over9k]

It will, but the smart charging infrastructure is only just starting to be developed, Origin and AGL have only recently commenced trails, if you read back through the thread.

Off peak is 9pm-7am, so I just plug the car in with a timer on the switch to run between those times, the end?

 

[SirRumpole]

How to get the 40% of consumers choosing a smarter approach to become the vast majority,

Legislative requirement ?

 

[Smurf1976]

Legislative requirement ?

I didn’t expect the article link to prompt so much debate...

If the law permitted forcing consumers onto time-based pricing then almost certainly that would lead to a lot more choosing to charge their EV at times when it creates no issues. It brings about the price-induced fix referred to.

The problem at the moment however is that the majority are on flat rates, same price anytime, and in most of the country the law doesn't allow a distributor or retailer to force a change unless the consumer wants it. Some exceptions but in general that’s the case.

As per the research, a large portion of consumers aren't choosing to change of their own accord and therein lies the problem.

The issue is ridiculously simple to resolve but not actually being resolved. Hence the calls for action - but the trouble is the politics surrounding EV's isn't ideal there which complicates what ought to be straightforward.

 

[qldfrog]

I didn’t expect the article link to prompt so much debate...

If the law permitted forcing consumers onto time-based pricing then almost certainly that would lead to a lot more choosing to charge their EV at times when it creates no issues. It brings about the price-induced fix referred to.

The problem at the moment however is that the majority are on flat rates, same price anytime, and in most of the country the law doesn't allow a distributor or retailer to force a change unless the consumer wants it. Some exceptions but in general that’s the case.

As per the research, a large portion of consumers aren't choosing to change of their own accord and therein lies the problem.

The issue is ridiculously simple to resolve but not actually being resolved. Hence the calls for action - but the trouble is the politics surrounding EV's isn't ideal there which complicates what ought to be straightforward.

Mr Smurf,
I seriously doubt the issue is as simple as you assume.
Point one: the 40/60 split from the study is not representative of the population.who has EV now?
Not the early shift worker not the tradie leaving at 5 or 6 am and back at 4pm.
Not a young person going out every day for the gym, meet friends,soccer and sushi with GF.
So these studies are not going to be applicable to the average car user.
Then how long do you need to charge an ev to be back to fully loaded? Are we not talking 8 to 9 hours?
So for people arriving home and plugging att 6pm,you strt running their batteries down to 0 till what 8pm then recharge till 4 or 5am?
Bad luck if you have to go to a movie or get your pizza..this would only work in a uber urban centric world, not. In the suburbs where mosts of the cars are.
And still require power by night .. currently as you know nearly 100pc coal stations...
Does not fit with the dream of green power Nirvana..and i would hate seeing my car battery destroyed to please the gov or AGL.