Electric cars?

[Value Collector]

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Truly meteoric.







But if you thought that was good, well...

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Tesla closed at $880, and I thought I was probably paying to much when I bought mine 3 months ago at $425.

I did some calculations this morning, to justify this valuation they have to be producing about 4 Million cars a year, last year they produced 500,000.

In their favour though they have two factories under construction, and a third one ramping up that could eventually bring production to 4.5 million and the 500,000 was in a pandemic.

not to mention selling a Tesla semi will probably be equal to selling 4 or 5 standard cars used in my calculation and my calculation completely ignored the other businesses such as stationary power storage, solar and other blue sky businesses such as robo taxi, software and in car purchases.

 

[over9k]

Let's not forget 0% interest rates putting a rocket under everything and so amplifying whatever gains would have otherwise occurred too.

 

[over9k]

View attachment 116702

Obviously particularly relevant for electric cars.

And it begins:





I've held SOXL ever since early september after the tech wreck, no intention of selling:

 

[over9k]

 

[over9k]

Cross-post:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[sptrawler]

Nio releases its Tesla competitor, the ET7.
It should be interesting to see if Tesla or Nio changes their charging model, or they manage to co exist, very similar situation to the old 8 track and 4 track cassette argument.

Tesla rival Nio ups competition with new electric sedan

The New York-listed shares of the ET7's manufacturer finished the year up 1112 per cent and the company has begun reporting gross positive margins.

www.afr.com

 

[Value Collector]

It should be interesting to see if Tesla or Nio changes their charging model, or they manage to co exist, very similar situation to the old 8 track and 4 track cassette argument.

If I had to guess, I would say Nio will drop the battery change concept, or limit it to a very small number of locations, the battery change model offers almost no practical advantages in real world life, but is alot more expensive to setup along with other draw backs.

Tesla already played with the battery change idea, Nio probably originally got the Idea from Tesla, but Tesla abandoned it.

I know driving up and swapping the battery seems like it would be super convenient, but in reality you would be far better off having the company install regular fast chargers, think about it...

1, When was they last time you used a full tank of fuel in one day, where stopping and supercharging for 15 minutes at some point that day would have been inconvenient? probably never, provided there is super chargers along your route.

2, If you did have an electric car, would you find it more convenient have the company install multiple fast chargers around the city in locations convenient to you, or max out its capital on one super impressive battery change facility on the wrong side of town?

Here is a video of Tesla doing a battery swap 8 years ago, as I said they have been there and done that, realised its not necessary, most people will never use chargers outside their home unless on a road trip, and on road trips they will use fast charging locations, so what is important is more fast chargers, not a few battery swap locations. People that can't charge at home will also prefer a wider distribution of fast or medium speed chargers at shopping centres etc rather than a small number of battery swap facilities.

 

[sptrawler]

If I had to guess, I would say Nio will drop the battery change concept, or limit it to a very small number of locations, the battery change model offers almost no practical advantages in real world life, but is alot more expensive to setup along with other draw backs.

Tesla already played with the battery change idea, Nio probably originally got the Idea from Tesla, but Tesla abandoned it.

I know driving up and swapping the battery seems like it would be super convenient, but in reality you would be far better off having the company install regular fast chargers, think about it...

1, When was they last time you used a full tank of fuel in one day, where stopping and supercharging for 15 minutes at some point that day would have been inconvenient? probably never, provided there is super chargers along your route.

2, If you did have an electric car, would you find it more convenient have the company install multiple fast chargers around the city in locations convenient to you, or max out its capital on one super impressive battery change facility on the wrong side of town?

Here is a video of Tesla doing a battery swap 8 years ago, as I said they have been there and done that, realised its not necessary, most people will never use chargers outside their home unless on a road trip, and on road trips they will use fast charging locations, so what is important is more fast chargers, not a few battery swap locations. People that can't charge at home will also prefer a wider distribution of fast or medium speed chargers at shopping centres etc rather than a small number of battery swap facilities.

Thanks for the info VC, it is still good that there is robust competition, it all ends up improving the product for the consumer.
Maybe a combination of both might work as in delivery vans, if they are sitting idle they are on charge, but if it is a hectic day with no idle time a three minute swap out may be advantageous.
The same with taxis, or maybe company pool cars, the advantage of having the option may be a slight advantage for some people.

The other thing of course is the ability to lease the battery pack and keep the car, just say you are like me retired and really only using the car intermittently.
If I could buy a car but not the battery, I could lease a battery that suits my needs, if it is only for trips to the shop etc a small battery would suffice so the lease cost would be minimal.
If I want to do regular country runs a large battery pack would probably be the option, which obviously would cost more to lease.
Both would be able to be charged via normal charging outlets.

The difference is if I buy the car without the battery it would probably cost 40% less, so that leads to the issue do you buy a BEV for $60k with a range of 400klm, or do you buy a car for $35k and choose the battery range you want and can upgrade or change the battery lease at anytime?
It's getting a bit like mobile phone's and internet data plans, in the holiday house or indeed your own home, do you have the NBN connected at $65/month or do you run a dongle at 365GB/yr for $365?

Interesting times ahead IMO.

 

[Value Collector]

Thanks for the info VC, it is still good that there is robust competition, it all ends up improving the product for the consumer.
Maybe a combination of both might work as in delivery vans, if they are sitting idle they are on charge, but if it is a hectic day with no idle time a three minute swap out may be advantageous.
The same with taxis, or maybe company pool cars, the advantage of having the option may be a slight advantage for some people.

The other thing of course is the ability to lease the battery pack and keep the car, just say you are like me retired and really only using the car intermittently.
If I could buy a car but not the battery, I could lease a battery that suits my needs, if it is only for trips to the shop etc a small battery would suffice so the lease cost would be minimal.
If I want to do regular country runs a large battery pack would probably be the option, which obviously would cost more to lease.
Both would be able to be charged via normal charging outlets.

Interesting times ahead IMO.

Check out this video of an actual Nio battery swap location, you will see it is not quite as fast or seamless as the animations make them look.

You will also notice there is some regular fast chargers right next to the swap booth, considering the time that the swap actually took, and considering the fact that it would require the driver to be there, I think on a road trip I would just choose to park my car at the regular charger and walk away, rather than mess about for 7 minutes swapping the battery and then have to park the car some where else anyway while I take care of my bodily functions.

The difference is if I buy the car without the battery it would probably cost 40% less, so that leads to the issue do you buy a BEV for $60k with a range of 400klm, or do you buy a car for $35k and choose the battery range you want and can upgrade or change the battery lease at anytime?
It's getting a bit like mobile phone's and internet data plans, in the holiday house or indeed your own home, do you have the NBN connected at $65/month or do you run a dongle at 365GB/yr for $365?

I think the projected savings there are way higher than what they would be in reality.

 

[sptrawler]

Check out this video of an actual Nio battery swap location, you will see it is not quite as fast or seamless as the animations make them look.

You will also notice there is some regular fast chargers right next to the swap booth, considering the time that the swap actually took, and considering the fact that it would require the driver to be there, I think on a road trip I would just choose to park my car at the regular charger and walk away, rather than mess about for 7 minutes swapping the battery and then have to park the car some where else anyway while I take care of my bodily functions.







I think the projected savings there are way higher than what they would be in reality.

Agreed, but when it comes to China they have as big a bottomless pit of money as the U.S, they don't have a floated currency.
So they will do what fits their purpose and the mainstream manufacturers will follow suit, because there is a huge untapped market in China that is growing.
As an example, when Japan first introduced motorcycles in the 1960's they had their gearchange on the left hand side, the U.K who had been producing motorbikes for nearly a century had them on the right. The U.K manufacturers poo paahed the silly Japanese, the rest is history.
I'm just happy Australia hasn't committed to anything, because whatever they put in could turn to $hit at any point, we really are getting to the position where global standards need to be formulated IMO.

 

[over9k]

Here's the result:

 

[over9k]

Cross-posting from the oil thread as I feel like the two are intrinsically linked:


Ok couple of big posts coming up as I've been moving into a lot more oil & energy trades of late so here's the culmination of several weeks' of research:



In 2019, coal was the principal fuel for chinese electricity generation, providing more than half (60%) of China’s electricity generation. In that same year, over 89% of Australia's coal exports went to china.

Although changing natural gas prices and renewable costs generally produce proportional shifts in the electricity sector’s fuel mix, regionally-specific fuel dynamics and resource availability are also important factors.

Decreases in natural gas prices produce the largest changes in the generation mix. Natural gas is relatively insensitive to changes in renewable costs in China, and the largest driver of natural gas generation remains natural gas fuel prices.

Solar could become the predominant source of electricity generation by 2050 if renewable costs are low and natural gas prices are high or at the reference level, however:



A combination of geographic unsuitability plus significant natural gas reserves (which are yet to be extracted) makes this unlikely.

At the 2019 Paris climate change conference, China also pledged to reach peak carbon output by 2030, however, China has nearly 250 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power now under development, more than the entire coal power capacity of the United States. So when Xi says China will peak…what he is preparing us all for is a massive (they never stopped) and continued investment.

Our Chinese friends now have 97.8 GW of coal-fired power under construction, and another 151.8 GW at the planning stage. And so while some poor sap was penning Xi’s carefully crafted speech to the UN, Xi and his underlings were busy. Busy financing and building out what is likely to be the worlds most impressive global energy infrastructure.

Just this year plants accounting for some 17 GW began construction in China. To put this into context this is more than the total amount approved during the previous two years. But they are not only investing in their backyard. Nope… according to a Boston University database they have made more than $244 billion in energy investments abroad since 2000 with the bulk of that in recent years going into oil and gas.

(Yeah not wind, solar or renewable and recyclable Unicorn farts. Good 'ol O&G…)

A healthy $50 billion of has gone toward dirty old coal!

They’ve done all of this, and will continue to do more, while paying lip service to “carbon emission reductions”. That our western leaders are as gullible as they are is a tragedy but simply ensures the west is going to end up being a source of houseboys for their Chinese overlords by the next decade.

As mentioned by the institute for energy research:

These Chinese corporations are building or planning to build more than 700 new coal plants at home and around the world, some in countries that today burn little or no coal, according to tallies compiled by Urgewald, an environmental group based in Berlin. Many of the plants are in China, but by capacity, roughly a fifth of these new coal power stations are in other countries. In total there are 1,600 new coal-fired plants planned or under construction in 62 countries, according to Urgewald’s tally, which uses data from the Global Coal Plant Tracker portal. The new plants would expand the world’s coal-fired power capacity by 43 percent.

https://www.instituteforenergyresea...ement-china-india-continue-build-coal-plants/

So the question becomes, why?

Well, there's more to it than economics. Specifically, it's about the aforementioned resource security:



As you can see, shipping coal from australia is nowhere near the gauntlet that has to be run from the persian gulf all the way to east asia - to get an oil tanker from saudi arabia to china you have to pass no fewer than 11 different countries, all of which hate you, and keep several major shipping choke points/routes open all at once, and do so thousands upon thousands of KM from home.

Oil tankers are a lot of things, but nimble a 500,000 ton tanker is not:



And when they have to pass through multiple choke points that can be closed without even so much as needing a navy, straits just a couple of dozen KM wide where just a handful of beach-launched missile batteries (even 100 year old artillery guns have that kind of range) are enough to cut almost the entirety of your oil supply off literally over night:



You can see why china, and indeed, all of asia, is so desperate to get off oil dependence. The problem is that, as I showed before, renewable energy just doesn't work in asia - the climate simply doesn't give them enough wind/sunlight in order for renewables to be able to do the job, which means that coal is the next best option.

Even if that means coal dependence, coal's a hell of a lot more secure/easier to get from australia than oil is from the persian gulf.

The middle-east is also acutely aware of this fact and it is why Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps troops on monday seized a south-korean oil tanker and forced the vessel to a nearby Iranian port in order to hopefully make the koreans release billions of dollars of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea under US sanctions:

Seoul presses Iran over seized oil tanker as tensions rise – DW – 01/07/2021

Iran's seizure of a South Korean-flagged oil tanker comes after Tehran urged Seoul to release billions of dollars of Iranian assets frozen in South Korea under US sanctions.

www.dw.com

In Other Non-OECD Asia, the main dynamic driving the region’s generation mix is a three-way competition between coal, natural gas, and renewable technologies. Without a unitary emissions policy in this region, natural gas and renewables are only economically competitive with coal generation when their respective fuel prices and capital costs are low. Decreasing natural gas fuel prices by 50% by 2050 makes natural gas the primary fuel for electricity generation in the region. Conversely, raising natural gas fuel prices, particularly when combined with lowered renewable capital costs, raises the aggregate generation share of solar, wind, and hydro technologies to 61%, more than double the Comparative Reference case levels (29%). Solar resources are generally the most economically competitive and available renewable technology in this region. Unlike China, however, this region can develop economically attractive hydro resources to help balance intermittent generation produced from wind and solar technologies.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/ieo/pdf/IEO2020_IIF_Asia.pdf

So in other words, even now, renewables still aren't economically competitive with oil, but it isn't economics that's driving asia's energy policies, so we can expect endless subsidies for basically everything except oil (and obviously the more secure the energy type the more it will be favoured) until some form of secure energy becomes economically viable in asia, but simple geography (climate) means that that is still a long way off.

It actually looks like it's going to be coal that's the "transition" energy production fuel between oil & renewables as whilst coal isn't great from a supply security perspective, it's still a hell of a lot more secure than oil.

It also explains why collective governments throughout asia (china especially) are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at electric car production as electric cars can indirectly run on the much more supply-secure coal whereas ICE cars cannot.

But even if we take the whole energy-security question out of it completely, they still have a major problem just producing enough energy in the first place even now, which I'll cover in the next post.

 

[over9k]

So if things weren't bad enough when your energy supply isn't secure, imagine if you couldn't keep up with energy demand even when it is:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

China’s roaring industrial rebound from the pandemic has an unforeseen consequence -- the surge in power demand has left factories, office buildings and street lights in some areas straining under an electricity shortage.

The country’s local governments are cutting power to some industrial and commercial customers in several provinces. State-owned companies are sending an army of workers to inspect power lines, and authorities are urging coal miners to produce more.

But that’s done little to quell the stream of domestic media reports on struggling cities. With the rest of the world growing ever-more dependent on China’s medical equipment and electronics exports as their pandemic-ravaged economies suffer, the focus abroad is also increasingly turning to the Asian manufacturing giant’s power supply.

“As the global economy recovers, it will be imperative for China to stabilize its power supplies,” said Rana Mitter, professor of Chinese politics at the University of Oxford. “There is a move in the West to re-shore supply chains and unreliability of power supply in China could be another motivation to do this.”

The world is relying on China’s factories like never before. As one of the first economies to emerge from a pandemic induced lockdown, and as a leading producer of protective gear and medical equipment, China’s exports have soared to record levels. That’s led to surging demand for power, with November consumption up 9.4% over the previous year, the highest level in more than two years.

On top of that, colder-than-normal weather is now adding to winter demand as people heat their homes, and ice is also wreaking havoc on grid infrastructure. Meanwhile, some parts of the country are curtailing electricity to keep emissions in check. That’s left some regions without enough power during peak hours, with two expected to have lasting shortfalls.

“Weather conditions for the following months will be the key factor to determine the scale of the outage,” said Hanyang Wei, an analyst with BloombergNEF. “Peak load would drop quickly if cold weather lasts for just a few days.”

This is all happening as coal, the fuel of choice for a majority of China’s power generation, remains in short supply. The government had limited imports to support domestic miners, and imposed an unofficial ban on Australian shipments amid a diplomatic spat. But domestic supplies haven’t risen as much as needed following a recent spate of deadly mining accidents.

That’s left the country grappling with surging energy prices. Local coal futures have soared to a record, while the costs for natural gas, another heating and power fuel, have also jumped. State-owned energy giants have gone so far as to warn firms against publicly discussing the supply-demand issue on concern prices will rise further, and the government has urged major mining regions to boost output.

Nearly all major cities are facing colder temperatures this winter, with some as much as 5 degrees Celsius below last year’s levels, Morgan Stanley analysts including Sara Chan said in a Dec. 23 research note. This is the main reason behind the surge in coal prices and is helping drive government intervention in power allocation.

In Hunan and Jiangxi provinces, power supplies have been cut to some industrial and commercial customers after demand rose at least 18% from a year earlier and transportation issues curtailed coal supplies, a National Development and Reform Commission official said Monday. Hunan’s power supply could be short by as much as 12%, according to BNEF.

The power crunch “will probably linger as an issue for a couple more months,” said James Stevenson, senior director for coal, metals and mining at IHS Markit. “When you get this short, really what you need to do is curtail demand, and that is what we are seeing.”

Big industrial users are on the front-lines of being cut off from electricity, followed by commercial buildings, in order to keep supply safe for residential consumers, according to BNEF’s Wei said. “Local industries will take a hit if the outage lasts for long,” Wei said.

Result?

Everyone are buying diesel (yes, diesel) generators to produce their own electricity as the grid simply can't provide enough of it even now:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

A frigid winter is leading to power shortages in parts of China, driving up demand for diesel as factories rush to install generators to keep the lights on.

Some provinces have started rationing electricity to industrial and commercial users to make sure there’s enough power to heat homes during a colder-than-typical winter. That’s prompting factories to snap up portable generators and the diesel they run on to ensure their plants stay open to meet orders amid record-high exports from the country.

The Chinese meteorological authority earlier issued an orange alert nationwide - the second-highest level in its four-tier system - as a cold wave sweeps through the nation. With temperatures still expected to dip further, grid operators are prioritizing the supply of energy to homes and the community, leaving other customers to scramble for alternative power sources.

“Power cuts have brought us extra orders,” Huang Yu, a sales manager at Shandong Dianyuan Village Power Technology Co., a company that supplies generators of different sizes. “We have been quite busy since November, receiving non-stop orders from customers in Jiangsu and Zhejiang,” she said via phone.

The company, which has a wide range of generators including some large enough to power a small town, has sold more than 20 a day recently, more than triple the normal level, Huang said. Its social media account posted a video Dec. 17 showing trucks loading dozens of power generators getting ready for shipment to power-cut regions.

Wholesale diesel prices in China rose to the highest level since April, according to data from the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. Inventories of the fuel across the country fell 5.26% in the month to Dec. 25 to 20.76 million tons, according to information provider OilChem.

“If there is a shortfall in electricity, diesel is the most responsive energy to fill the gap,” Sengyick Tee, an analyst with Beijing-based SIA Energy said. “Even 0.5% of China’s electricity switching to power by diesel would make a large impact on diesel demand.”

China’s power demand has surged in the second-half of this year as its economy recovered from the pandemic and global demand for protective gear and medical equipment it produces soared. A colder-than-normal winter caused by a La Nina weather pattern added to that, boosting consumption by 11% in December, more than double the growth of a year ago, according to National Development and Reform Commission.

Coal supplies have also been tight amid safety checks at domestic mines and import restrictions, and natural gas has also been rationed to ensure supplies for heating. Governments cut electricity to some businesses in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces because of shortages, while Zhejiang officials also curtailed industrial power in order to meet emissions and efficiency goals for the five-year plan ending Thursday.

Beyond China, low temperatures are also affecting other nations across Northeast Asia. Japan’s spot power price extended its record-breaking rally as utilities struggle to keep pace with higher demand for heating, while South Korea is prepared to release state reserves of kerosene should supply of the heating fuel remain tight.





In short, climate change and economics might be what's driving the electric car and renewable energy phenomenon over here in the west where renewable energy is actually economically viable and we also actually care about the whole climate change thing, but in asia, it has absolutely nothing to do with either of these things. They simultaneously have a completely vulnerable/insecure energy supply line and still can't produce enough power for themselves even when their supply is secure like it is now, let alone when it isn't.

You can also see how the moment any oil supply that has to transit the persian gulf/strait of malacca/sunda strait/lombok strait/the entire indonesia-timor-PNG-etc archipelago gets cut off anyone who produces oil anywhere else will be able to charge absolutely exorbitant prices as they'll effectively have the only deliverable oil supply left. This includes us in the west because the oil companies will just go hey, if you won't pay 4x the previous price (or whatever) then the asians will.

Until asia gets off its oil dependence, that is.

 

[Value Collector]

It also explains why collective governments throughout asia (china especially) are throwing everything including the kitchen sink at electric car production as electric cars can indirectly run on the much more supply-secure coal whereas ICE cars cannot.

I think that is a point often over looked by people that really don't understand electric cars, eg. Electric cars can exploit all the same energy sources internal combustion engine (ICE) cars do, while also being able to exploit far more energy sources than ICE cars can't.

Think about it, ICE cars can pretty much only use crude oil and some limited biofuels.

While there is nothing stopping Electric Cars exploiting those same crude oil and biofuel resources, but they can also exploit many other sources such as natural gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal etc etc (insert endless list of energy sources here).

If the world went hard at electric cars and we really got short on other sources of energy for electrical generation, there is nothing stopping us exploiting the crude oil supplies we would have used for ICE cars to generate electricity to charge EV's and it would be a lot better use of the oil because we can burn the whole barrel of oil to generate electricity including the parts that normally go to waste rather than just the components that go towards tradition fuels.

 

[over9k]

I believe it's also much more energy efficient to burn diesel etc in a generator and convert it into electricity than it is to burn it in an ICE vehicle too, so the fossil fuels literally go a lot further that way as well.

 

[Value Collector]

I believe it's also much more energy efficient to burn diesel etc in a generator and convert it into electricity than it is to burn it in an ICE vehicle too, so the fossil fuels literally go a lot further that way as well.

Yes burning the diesel in a large generator is more efficient than using it to power an engine linked to a mechanical drive chain,... however skipping the whole refining crude into diesel part is even more efficient, eg just burning the entire barrel of crude in a super efficient combined cycle power plant.

 

[over9k]

Ah yep, here I thought you were talking about still burning refined fuels like they're currently doing with all the on-site generators.

Do you know much about the big crude burning power plants? I'd be interested to hear if they need to be designed differently for different grades of crude, light/heavy, sweet/sour etc etc?

To my mind it would be very silly to have a plant that could run on light/sweet but not heavy/sour but I'm not a powerplant engineer so I have no idea if such a thing is actually possible.

I ask because shale crude (which I suspect you know) is a very different grade to conventional crude and shale crude, whilst it might be expensive if the conventional stuff is no longer available, may soon be the only stuff the asians can actually get their hands on, so if a powerplant can't actually use it then they'd be in quite the jam.

If powerplants can't run on all grades of crude then that would only give them even more impetus to get off oil entirely.

 

[sptrawler]

Yes burning the diesel in a large generator is more efficient than using it to power an engine linked to a mechanical drive chain,... however skipping the whole refining crude into diesel part is even more efficient, eg just burning the entire barrel of crude in a super efficient combined cycle power plant.

You are both right IMO, large diesel generators are around 50% efficient, combined cycle turbine generators are around 50% efficient. The difference being the diesel can go instantly to maximum continuous rating, whereas the combined cycle has to get correct steam temperatures before steam can go to the turbine on the steam set.
The big benefit E.V's have over ICE vehicles is, an E.V drive will be over 90% efficient whereas an ICE drivetrain will be in the 30% range for diesels, less for petrol. Due to the fact E.V's don't need a drive train, ie transmission, diff etc which has losses of around 16%.
But all interesting stuff IMO.

 

[sptrawler]

Ah yep, here I thought you were talking about still burning refined fuels like they're currently doing with all the on-site generators.

Do you know much about the big crude burning power plants? I'd be interested to hear if they need to be designed differently for different grades of crude, light/heavy, sweet/sour etc etc?

To my mind it would be very silly to have a plant that could run on light/sweet but not heavy/sour but I'm not a powerplant engineer so I have no idea if such a thing is actually possible.

I ask because shale crude (which I suspect you know) is a very different grade to conventional crude and shale crude, whilst it might be expensive if the conventional stuff is no longer available, may soon be the only stuff the asians can actually get their hands on, so if a powerplant can't actually use it then they'd be in quite the jam.

If powerplants can't run on all grades of crude then that would only give them even more impetus to get off oil entirely.

Depends what you are burning the fuel through, a boiler not a lot of difference, the heavy fuel oil requires fuel oil heaters whereas light fuel oil doesn't, also it may require a change of fuel oil guns depending on the boilers.
Diesel engines, it depends on size the really big low speed ones like on ships or very big generators can use heavy fuel oil, but again would use some pre heating for viscosity.
Medium speed and high speed diesels, can use medium fuel oil but waxing can be a problem if the temp starts getting down to low single figures, much easier to use light fuel oil.

 

[over9k]

Oh trawler. I totally forgot about you. You're definitely the man for that question. I would have tagged you if I'd remembered!