Electric cars?

[Value Collector]

Your situation is one of novelty. Charging two or three batteries would chug a lot of power.

Out of interest can the tyres be changed at a regular tyre shop?

either way you chugging electricity or fuel and electricity is much cheaper.

sure, why wouldn’t you be able to get your tyres changed?

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

either way you chugging electricity or fuel and electricity is much cheaper.

sure, why wouldn’t you be able to get your tyres changed?

Why don't you buy a Porsche Taycan? Trade in the Tesla.

 

[Smurf1976]

Let's turn the clock back 25 years to 1995.

I'll propose, in 1995, that by the time a child born today (1995) is working full time, the following will have become mostly or totally obsolete:

*Movie rentals. The format will first switch from VHS tapes to a completely new product known as a DVD but by 2020 the entire concept of video rental stores will be almost completely gone throughout the developed world. The stores will physically end up repurposed for completely unrelated activities, gyms being one of the more common uses.

*CD's and indeed any physical audio media will be purchased only by serious fans of that singer or band and their reason for purchase will be primarily for the sake of owning it rather than to actually listen to it. Casual listeners with only a passing interest will no longer purchase any physical audio at all.

*Newspapers will be a "legacy" product purchased primarily by older people.

*Broadcast TV will be in a similar position to newspapers, with young people having only a limited interest in it.

Now if someone had said that 25 years ago they'd have been laughed at, the first question being what would replace them?

If you'd said they'd be replaced with computers then you'd have received more laughter. Do you seriously mean to tell me that ordinary households are all going to buy a computer, which costs a minimum of $2995 ($5300 in 2020 money adjusted for inflation) and comes with a tiny 14" screen and not very good audio and they'll use this to listen to music and watch movies?

You've got to be joking. What next are you going to tell me? People will use these to do their banking with real money or something? Don't be silly, that won't happen. Just look at it! 10 million households, $3K each, that's $30 billion. Nah, we'll stick with newspapers and VHS for decades to come that's a given.

Even if you did do this, the phone lines and exchanges aren't going to cope with everyone dialing up at once now are they? We'd have to build a completely new communications network in order to do it and that's going to cost $ billions.

And yet here we are and we've not only done that, we've gone way beyond it to the point that we've now got a mobile communications network covering most of the population and pretty much every adult carries with them a powerful computer. Everyone in 2020 has more music and movies at their fingertips, literally in their pocket, than proper radio stations and cinemas had access to 25 years ago.

The world changes yes and things get done. It takes time but when a better way comes along it sees adoption and progressively replaces what came before it.

Looking around my local area, I've literally no idea where I'd be able to rent a DVD now or if it's even still possible. The last of those kiosk type things has been removed from the shopping centre I normally use a few weeks ago and that's it, there's nothing left of that entire concept. Gone.

Now let's come back to 2020 and go take a look outside.

How many cars that are pre-1990 do you see in regular use?

Yep, we've replaced almost the entire car fleet over the past 30 years and we'll do it again in the next 30, indeed most of it turns over in a bit over 20 years.

If the world goes with electric and/or hydrogen for vehicles well then that's what'll happen. Australia, a country with 25 million people and no significant vehicle manufacturing industry, sure isn't going to be the last holdout for the internal combustion engine if everyone else dumps it.

Just like there was no chance that Australia was going to stick with VHS tapes, to my understanding there isn't a single manufacturer still producing machines today, and there's hardly anywhere left on earth still using leaded petrol other than for niche purposes. Times change, technology evolves, people find a way to adapt.

I really don't understand the "can't be done" attitude of some here. In that regard I'll be polite but blunt - that approach is not a good way to get ahead in business as either an owner or employee. Even the public service tends to manage such people out eventually.

Those who profit from this (this is a sharemarket forum, right.....) will be the ones who spot the threats posed and the opportunities presented. They'll be offloading anything that's going to lose value before most have worked that out, and they'll be getting into the things of the future.

Most of the electricity companies have their foot in the door so far as EV's are concerned. Different approaches but they're taking a keen interest most certainly. Likewise the oil companies similarly realise that the future isn't going to be based primarily around selling petrol.

As with anything, it doesn't needs to be a one size fits all approach. It's not the end of the world if someone who really is driving from Adelaide to Perth recharges their EV at Border Village using power from the diesel generator. Just as it's not a problem if a small % of people are reliant on satellite internet.

For the vast majority though, charging an EV isn't hugely problematic on the condition that we can avoid adding to peak demand which for most parts of the electricity network and overall supply chain is 6 - 7pm with some localised peaks at different times in a few locations.

To the extent that EV's can be charged during the middle of the day, so roughly 10am - 3pm, then in some locations that extra load on the grid would be a benefit in itself and by no means a problem, very much the opposite. Lack of load at those times is already a pressing issue in SA with WA and ultimately Victoria heading the same way (and a fair chance that the NT will get there too). Not all EV's will charge during daytime of course, but some will and already there are active moves to encourage that by retailers, distributors and others.

Whichever way the rest of the world goes, ultimately Australia is going the same way be that electric, hydrogen or something else.

 

[Value Collector]

Why don't you buy a Porsche Taycan? Trade in the Tesla.

I like the Tesla self driving functions and the Tesla supercharger network.

As I said I drive Sydney to Brisbane quite a bit, and it’s pretty relaxing having the car drive itself for 2 or 3 hours at a time, and being able to supercharge along the way.

plus I have never been a real Porsche fan, I am not really a car guy, I just like the practically of the Tesla.

 

[Value Collector]

Let's turn the clock back 25 years to 1995.

I'll propose, in 1995, that by the time a child born today (1995) is working full time, the following will have become mostly or totally obsolete:

*Movie rentals. The format will first switch from VHS tapes to a completely new product known as a DVD but by 2020 the entire concept of video rental stores will be almost completely gone throughout the developed world. The stores will physically end up repurposed for completely unrelated activities, gyms being one of the more common uses.

*CD's and indeed any physical audio media will be purchased only by serious fans of that singer or band and their reason for purchase will be primarily for the sake of owning it rather than to actually listen to it. Casual listeners with only a passing interest will no longer purchase any physical audio at all.

*Newspapers will be a "legacy" product purchased primarily by older people.

*Broadcast TV will be in a similar position to newspapers, with young people having only a limited interest in it.

Now if someone had said that 25 years ago they'd have been laughed at, the first question being what would replace them?

If you'd said they'd be replaced with computers then you'd have received more laughter. Do you seriously mean to tell me that ordinary households are all going to buy a computer, which costs a minimum of $2995 ($5300 in 2020 money adjusted for inflation) and comes with a tiny 14" screen and not very good audio and they'll use this to listen to music and watch movies?

You've got to be joking. What next are you going to tell me? People will use these to do their banking with real money or something? Don't be silly, that won't happen. Just look at it! 10 million households, $3K each, that's $30 billion. Nah, we'll stick with newspapers and VHS for decades to come that's a given.

Even if you did do this, the phone lines and exchanges aren't going to cope with everyone dialing up at once now are they? We'd have to build a completely new communications network in order to do it and that's going to cost $ billions.

And yet here we are and we've not only done that, we've gone way beyond it to the point that we've now got a mobile communications network covering most of the population and pretty much every adult carries with them a powerful computer. Everyone in 2020 has more music and movies at their fingertips, literally in their pocket, than proper radio stations and cinemas had access to 25 years ago.

The world changes yes and things get done. It takes time but when a better way comes along it sees adoption and progressively replaces what came before it.

Looking around my local area, I've literally no idea where I'd be able to rent a DVD now or if it's even still possible. The last of those kiosk type things has been removed from the shopping centre I normally use a few weeks ago and that's it, there's nothing left of that entire concept. Gone.

Now let's come back to 2020 and go take a look outside.

How many cars that are pre-1990 do you see in regular use?

Yep, we've replaced almost the entire car fleet over the past 30 years and we'll do it again in the next 30, indeed most of it turns over in a bit over 20 years.

If the world goes with electric and/or hydrogen for vehicles well then that's what'll happen. Australia, a country with 25 million people and no significant vehicle manufacturing industry, sure isn't going to be the last holdout for the internal combustion engine if everyone else dumps it.

Just like there was no chance that Australia was going to stick with VHS tapes, to my understanding there isn't a single manufacturer still producing machines today, and there's hardly anywhere left on earth still using leaded petrol other than for niche purposes. Times change, technology evolves, people find a way to adapt.

I really don't understand the "can't be done" attitude of some here. In that regard I'll be polite but blunt - that approach is not a good way to get ahead in business as either an owner or employee. Even the public service tends to manage such people out eventually.

Those who profit from this (this is a sharemarket forum, right.....) will be the ones who spot the threats posed and the opportunities presented. They'll be offloading anything that's going to lose value before most have worked that out, and they'll be getting into the things of the future.

Most of the electricity companies have their foot in the door so far as EV's are concerned. Different approaches but they're taking a keen interest most certainly. Likewise the oil companies similarly realise that the future isn't going to be based primarily around selling petrol.

As with anything, it doesn't needs to be a one size fits all approach. It's not the end of the world if someone who really is driving from Adelaide to Perth recharges their EV at Border Village using power from the diesel generator. Just as it's not a problem if a small % of people are reliant on satellite internet.

For the vast majority though, charging an EV isn't hugely problematic on the condition that we can avoid adding to peak demand which for most parts of the electricity network and overall supply chain is 6 - 7pm with some localised peaks at different times in a few locations.

To the extent that EV's can be charged during the middle of the day, so roughly 10am - 3pm, then in some locations that extra load on the grid would be a benefit in itself and by no means a problem, very much the opposite. Lack of load at those times is already a pressing issue in SA with WA and ultimately Victoria heading the same way (and a fair chance that the NT will get there too). Not all EV's will charge during daytime of course, but some will and already there are active moves to encourage that by retailers, distributors and others.

Whichever way the rest of the world goes, ultimately Australia is going the same way be that electric, hydrogen or something else.

I have a feeling if we went back to 1995 some one here would be saying video streaming live tv shows won’t work and VHS is the future. hahaha

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Let's turn the clock back 25 years to 1995.

I'll propose, in 1995, that by the time a child born today (1995) is working full time, the following will have become mostly or totally obsolete:

*Movie rentals. The format will first switch from VHS tapes to a completely new product known as a DVD but by 2020 the entire concept of video rental stores will be almost completely gone throughout the developed world. The stores will physically end up repurposed for completely unrelated activities, gyms being one of the more common uses.

*CD's and indeed any physical audio media will be purchased only by serious fans of that singer or band and their reason for purchase will be primarily for the sake of owning it rather than to actually listen to it. Casual listeners with only a passing interest will no longer purchase any physical audio at all.

*Newspapers will be a "legacy" product purchased primarily by older people.

*Broadcast TV will be in a similar position to newspapers, with young people having only a limited interest in it.

Now if someone had said that 25 years ago they'd have been laughed at, the first question being what would replace them?

If you'd said they'd be replaced with computers then you'd have received more laughter. Do you seriously mean to tell me that ordinary households are all going to buy a computer, which costs a minimum of $2995 ($5300 in 2020 money adjusted for inflation) and comes with a tiny 14" screen and not very good audio and they'll use this to listen to music and watch movies?

You've got to be joking. What next are you going to tell me? People will use these to do their banking with real money or something? Don't be silly, that won't happen. Just look at it! 10 million households, $3K each, that's $30 billion. Nah, we'll stick with newspapers and VHS for decades to come that's a given.

Even if you did do this, the phone lines and exchanges aren't going to cope with everyone dialing up at once now are they? We'd have to build a completely new communications network in order to do it and that's going to cost $ billions.

And yet here we are and we've not only done that, we've gone way beyond it to the point that we've now got a mobile communications network covering most of the population and pretty much every adult carries with them a powerful computer. Everyone in 2020 has more music and movies at their fingertips, literally in their pocket, than proper radio stations and cinemas had access to 25 years ago.

The world changes yes and things get done. It takes time but when a better way comes along it sees adoption and progressively replaces what came before it.

Looking around my local area, I've literally no idea where I'd be able to rent a DVD now or if it's even still possible. The last of those kiosk type things has been removed from the shopping centre I normally use a few weeks ago and that's it, there's nothing left of that entire concept. Gone.

Now let's come back to 2020 and go take a look outside.

How many cars that are pre-1990 do you see in regular use?

Yep, we've replaced almost the entire car fleet over the past 30 years and we'll do it again in the next 30, indeed most of it turns over in a bit over 20 years.

If the world goes with electric and/or hydrogen for vehicles well then that's what'll happen. Australia, a country with 25 million people and no significant vehicle manufacturing industry, sure isn't going to be the last holdout for the internal combustion engine if everyone else dumps it.

Just like there was no chance that Australia was going to stick with VHS tapes, to my understanding there isn't a single manufacturer still producing machines today, and there's hardly anywhere left on earth still using leaded petrol other than for niche purposes. Times change, technology evolves, people find a way to adapt.

I really don't understand the "can't be done" attitude of some here. In that regard I'll be polite but blunt - that approach is not a good way to get ahead in business as either an owner or employee. Even the public service tends to manage such people out eventually.

Those who profit from this (this is a sharemarket forum, right.....) will be the ones who spot the threats posed and the opportunities presented. They'll be offloading anything that's going to lose value before most have worked that out, and they'll be getting into the things of the future.

Most of the electricity companies have their foot in the door so far as EV's are concerned. Different approaches but they're taking a keen interest most certainly. Likewise the oil companies similarly realise that the future isn't going to be based primarily around selling petrol.

As with anything, it doesn't needs to be a one size fits all approach. It's not the end of the world if someone who really is driving from Adelaide to Perth recharges their EV at Border Village using power from the diesel generator. Just as it's not a problem if a small % of people are reliant on satellite internet.

For the vast majority though, charging an EV isn't hugely problematic on the condition that we can avoid adding to peak demand which for most parts of the electricity network and overall supply chain is 6 - 7pm with some localised peaks at different times in a few locations.

To the extent that EV's can be charged during the middle of the day, so roughly 10am - 3pm, then in some locations that extra load on the grid would be a benefit in itself and by no means a problem, very much the opposite. Lack of load at those times is already a pressing issue in SA with WA and ultimately Victoria heading the same way (and a fair chance that the NT will get there too). Not all EV's will charge during daytime of course, but some will and already there are active moves to encourage that by retailers, distributors and others.

Whichever way the rest of the world goes, ultimately Australia is going the same way be that electric, hydrogen or something else.

We are talking about a global energy transition. Perhaps studying the whale oil to crude oil transition might get you in the right ball park.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I like the Tesla self driving functions and the Tesla supercharger network.

As I said I drive Sydney to Brisbane quite a bit, and it’s pretty relaxing having the car drive itself for 2 or 3 hours at a time, and being able to supercharge along the way.

plus I have never been a real Porsche fan, I am not really a car guy, I just like the practically of the Tesla.

So you are emotionally attached to the brand. Like people that drink Coca Cola.

 

[Value Collector]

We are talking about a global energy transition. Perhaps studying the whale oil to crude oil transition might get you in the right ball park.

Hahaha, I think Smurf has more knowledge about energy systems in his little finger than you will ever have.

 

[Value Collector]

So your emotionally attached to the brand. Like people that drink Coca Cola.

what part of enjoying the self driving features and easy charging locations made you think it was about brand ?

can a Porsche self drive for 3 hours?
Do Porsche have charging locations along Australia’s major highways?

for my purposes only a Tesla is suitable at the moment.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Hahaha, I think Smurf has more knowledge about energy systems in his little finger than you will ever have.

On that note I am going to say good bye and click that ignore button on you.

I don't think Smurf has studied either engineering or finance at university or ever worked in the industry or field; going off the posts.

Ignore me, that would be a blessing.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

what part of enjoying the self driving features and easy charging locations made you think it was about brand ?

can a Porsche self drive for 3 hours?
Do Porsche have charging locations along Australia’s major highways?

for my purposes only a Tesla is suitable at the moment.

And your purposes aren't the same as everybody else's in the country.

 

[Value Collector]

And your purposes aren't the same as everybody else's in the country.

you are right only 99% of people are suited to EV’s.

anyway I have wasted far to much time talking to some one that doesn’t really want to learn.

I have to get back to my reading, which just so happens to be a 600 page book about the USA oil refining industry, I suggest you go do some actual research.

maybe go do some reading and test whether your opinions are supported by facts.

 

[moXJO]

either way you chugging electricity or fuel and electricity is much cheaper.

sure, why wouldn’t you be able to get your tyres changed?

Are they just regular tyres readily available I should have said.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

you are right only 99% of people are suited to EV’s.

anyway I have wasted far to much time talking to some one that doesn’t really want to learn.

I have to get back to my reading, which just so happens to be a 600 page book about the USA oil refining industry, I suggest you go do some actual research.

maybe go do some reading and test whether your opinions are supported by facts.

Good, go educate yourself, then we can talk seriously about the electrical capacity that will be required for EVs moving forward.

I can recommend a few books for you to read if you like.

 

[Value Collector]

Are they just regular tyres readily available I should have said.

Yeah. I am part of a Tesla group on face and a few guys have had to replace tyres, no one has said they had any issues, with replacement or repairs.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Yeah. I am part of a Tesla group on face and a few guys have had to replace tyres, no one has said they had any issues, with replacement or repairs.

Do you own Tesla stock?

 

[Value Collector]

Do you own Tesla stock?

nope, unless it’s in the global index I have in my super, but outside of that not at all. (Unfortunately)

 

[moXJO]

Let's turn the clock back 25 years to 1995.

I'll propose, in 1995, that by the time a child born today (1995) is working full time, the following will have become mostly or totally obsolete:

*Movie rentals. The format will first switch from VHS tapes to a completely new product known as a DVD but by 2020 the entire concept of video rental stores will be almost completely gone throughout the developed world. The stores will physically end up repurposed for completely unrelated activities, gyms being one of the more common uses.

*CD's and indeed any physical audio media will be purchased only by serious fans of that singer or band and their reason for purchase will be primarily for the sake of owning it rather than to actually listen to it. Casual listeners with only a passing interest will no longer purchase any physical audio at all.

*Newspapers will be a "legacy" product purchased primarily by older people.

*Broadcast TV will be in a similar position to newspapers, with young people having only a limited interest in it.

Now if someone had said that 25 years ago they'd have been laughed at, the first question being what would replace them?

If you'd said they'd be replaced with computers then you'd have received more laughter. Do you seriously mean to tell me that ordinary households are all going to buy a computer, which costs a minimum of $2995 ($5300 in 2020 money adjusted for inflation) and comes with a tiny 14" screen and not very good audio and they'll use this to listen to music and watch movies?

You've got to be joking. What next are you going to tell me? People will use these to do their banking with real money or something? Don't be silly, that won't happen. Just look at it! 10 million households, $3K each, that's $30 billion. Nah, we'll stick with newspapers and VHS for decades to come that's a given.

Even if you did do this, the phone lines and exchanges aren't going to cope with everyone dialing up at once now are they? We'd have to build a completely new communications network in order to do it and that's going to cost $ billions.

And yet here we are and we've not only done that, we've gone way beyond it to the point that we've now got a mobile communications network covering most of the population and pretty much every adult carries with them a powerful computer. Everyone in 2020 has more music and movies at their fingertips, literally in their pocket, than proper radio stations and cinemas had access to 25 years ago.

The world changes yes and things get done. It takes time but when a better way comes along it sees adoption and progressively replaces what came before it.

Looking around my local area, I've literally no idea where I'd be able to rent a DVD now or if it's even still possible. The last of those kiosk type things has been removed from the shopping centre I normally use a few weeks ago and that's it, there's nothing left of that entire concept. Gone.

Now let's come back to 2020 and go take a look outside.

How many cars that are pre-1990 do you see in regular use?

Yep, we've replaced almost the entire car fleet over the past 30 years and we'll do it again in the next 30, indeed most of it turns over in a bit over 20 years.

If the world goes with electric and/or hydrogen for vehicles well then that's what'll happen. Australia, a country with 25 million people and no significant vehicle manufacturing industry, sure isn't going to be the last holdout for the internal combustion engine if everyone else dumps it.

Just like there was no chance that Australia was going to stick with VHS tapes, to my understanding there isn't a single manufacturer still producing machines today, and there's hardly anywhere left on earth still using leaded petrol other than for niche purposes. Times change, technology evolves, people find a way to adapt.

I really don't understand the "can't be done" attitude of some here. In that regard I'll be polite but blunt - that approach is not a good way to get ahead in business as either an owner or employee. Even the public service tends to manage such people out eventually.

Those who profit from this (this is a sharemarket forum, right.....) will be the ones who spot the threats posed and the opportunities presented. They'll be offloading anything that's going to lose value before most have worked that out, and they'll be getting into the things of the future.

Most of the electricity companies have their foot in the door so far as EV's are concerned. Different approaches but they're taking a keen interest most certainly. Likewise the oil companies similarly realise that the future isn't going to be based primarily around selling petrol.

As with anything, it doesn't needs to be a one size fits all approach. It's not the end of the world if someone who really is driving from Adelaide to Perth recharges their EV at Border Village using power from the diesel generator. Just as it's not a problem if a small % of people are reliant on satellite internet.

For the vast majority though, charging an EV isn't hugely problematic on the condition that we can avoid adding to peak demand which for most parts of the electricity network and overall supply chain is 6 - 7pm with some localised peaks at different times in a few locations.

To the extent that EV's can be charged during the middle of the day, so roughly 10am - 3pm, then in some locations that extra load on the grid would be a benefit in itself and by no means a problem, very much the opposite. Lack of load at those times is already a pressing issue in SA with WA and ultimately Victoria heading the same way (and a fair chance that the NT will get there too). Not all EV's will charge during daytime of course, but some will and already there are active moves to encourage that by retailers, distributors and others.

Whichever way the rest of the world goes, ultimately Australia is going the same way be that electric, hydrogen or something else.

I agree that we will indeed change. But don't forget the superior tech that fell to inferior products. Laserdisc, betamax, Intellivision was smashed by Atari.

I don't agree with: "not picking something apart". I want to know problems early. You identify a problem then you can profit with a solution.
And I can see a lot of problems.

As annoying as discussions like this seem, it does benefit others with identifying areas to investigate.

A question for you smurf

A hundred cars down a street in a small coastal town. All charging at the same time. Any problems or good to go?

 

[Smurf1976]

We are talking about a global energy transition. Perhaps studying the whale oil to crude oil transition might get you in the right ball park.

Whales became more scarce, production peaked and prices went up in real terms. Then along came crude oil as the solution.

Today we see a similar pattern in that whilst we're not actually running out of oil, it most certainly is becoming more costly to obtain. We've had an oil price "crash" this year but the harsh reality is that the price today is still high by historic standards and that says all you need to know.

We've gone from low tech wells on land which gushed vast amounts of oil under their own pressure to having to use hydraulic fracturing to extract dramatically smaller amounts of oil per well at higher cost. That there is the situation. We're not running out of oil but the most easily obtained oil is either gone or not available to the market due to politics etc and the cost of supply is increasing over time in real terms.

Hence we've seen oil mostly phased out for power generation, boiler fuel and so on. It's not zero but it has been in decline since the 1970's and in many countries is now at a very low level.

In the Australian context the NT and WA are the only states (ignoring the technicality that the NT isn't actually a state since that's irrelevant in the context) which are significantly reliant on oil for power generation. In the NT it's about 28%, in WA it's 6%, in every other state it's trivial.

Much the same in most countries. Go back to 1973 and oil was just over 22% of global electricity production, second only to coal, but there's very few places where it's the major source today.

Most of those involved in all this take a pragmatic view not an ideological one. Economics drives decisions and as everyone knows, transitions take years and usually involve equipment being run to the end of its technical life and it's at the time of replacement that a new technology is applied.

That's the likely scenario with cars. A point comes where new cars are electric or hydrogen, and it's only the older vehicles using petrol or diesel the use of which then gradually declines and ultimately goes to zero.

 

[Value Collector]

How much did the Tesla cost VC?

$79,000 you can get it for $70,000 but I took the self driving and paint upgrades.

it’s a Tesla Model 3.