Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[moXJO]

NSW seems to have uncontrolled hidden contagion. It's out of the bottle and in the community in numbers.

Let's see how it goes....

 

[moXJO]

14% reinfection rate is one number I have seen but reported 2nd time around its not as bad

Just to revisit this.

They seem to think the virus was just at low levels and the immune system was still very weak. Then the virus levels went up again. So it's possibly bi-phasic.
Nothing certain just yet.

With MERS antibodies were gone in 6 months.

 

[sptrawler]

NSW seems to have uncontrolled hidden contagion. It's out of the bottle and in the community in numbers.

Let's see how it goes....

With the amount of Australians that travel and the length of time the virus has been in circulation, the only reason we haven't got larger numbers will because no one was tested IMO.
It is just the law of averages, how many people who live in Australia's two major cities are of Chinese descent? How many would have traveled to China over the Christmas break?

 

[CBerg]

With the amount of Australians that travel and the length of time the virus has been in circulation, the only reason we haven't got larger numbers will because no one was tested IMO.
It is just the law of averages, how many people who live in Australia's two major cities are of Chinese descent? How many would have traveled to China over the Christmas break?

This. I'd guess at least 50% of the population has been exposed to it with how popular leisure travel is not to mention work travel.

I cannot fathom why this simple fact doesn't calm people down. I'm not pretending the people that have died is not a tragedy nor that China effectively being shut for an extra month after their New Year celebrations won't impact things. I get not knowing scares people but life goes on, it always trudges on.

 

[moXJO]

With the amount of Australians that travel and the length of time the virus has been in circulation, the only reason we haven't got larger numbers will because no one was tested IMO.
It is just the law of averages, how many people who live in Australia's two major cities are of Chinese descent? How many would have traveled to China over the Christmas break?

Chinese New year saw a lot of travel. All we can do now is hope and buy toilet paper.

 

[sptrawler]

This. I'd guess at least 50% of the population has been exposed to it with how popular leisure travel is not to mention work travel.

I cannot fathom why this simple fact doesn't calm people down. I'm not pretending the people that have died is not a tragedy nor that China effectively being shut for an extra month after their New Year celebrations won't impact things. I get not knowing scares people but life goes on, it always trudges on.

Because the media love the 'glass half empty' approach IMO.
It must improve circulation, it certainly improved toilet paper sales.

 

[basilio]

Worth a read.

RBA interest rate cuts won't save the economy from coronavirus, but there are policies that may
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated about 2 hours ago

An interest rate cut might be a bonus for homeowners with mortgages and give share investors a temporary sugar hit, but it's not going to do much to save the economy from coronavirus.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...help-coronavirus-hit-firms-economies/12020208

 

[So_Cynical]

To explain the toilet paper thing, disposable masks are basically impossible to buy now but most people who prepared a little like me (i bought 20 three weeks ago) have some but not enough, so you tear off 5 or 6 sheets of toilet paper and put it in or wrap your disposable mask in it and at the end of the day you throw away the toilet paper not the mask, this way 1 mask could last maybe 2 or 3 weeks.

 

[againsthegrain]

Worth a read.

RBA interest rate cuts won't save the economy from coronavirus, but there are policies that may
By business reporter Michael Janda
Updated about 2 hours ago

An interest rate cut might be a bonus for homeowners with mortgages and give share investors a temporary sugar hit, but it's not going to do much to save the economy from coronavirus.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...help-coronavirus-hit-firms-economies/12020208

If these panickers thought a bit bigger and smarter they would realise toilet paper is thinking small. If bad times come you will need cash on hand, doing a toilet paper run is 1 thing, imagine people doing bank runs lol

I know a few people that have been cashing out from atms and branches covertly for past few weeks, 2k here 4k there. One guy has 50k under his mattress now for a rainy day... paranoia at its best

 

[lusk]

To explain the toilet paper thing, disposable masks are basically impossible to buy now but most people who prepared a little like me (i bought 20 three weeks ago) have some but not enough, so you tear off 5 or 6 sheets of toilet paper and put it in or wrap your disposable mask in it and at the end of the day you throw away the toilet paper not the mask, this way 1 mask could last maybe 2 or 3 weeks.

Probably best way to make sure you catch it, all the virus you collect for 2 to 3 weeks travels around with you waiting for you to touch your mask and forget to wash your hands.

Most people don't consider to wash their hands before putting it on or after taking it off.

 

[Country Lad]

To explain the toilet paper thing..............

I think it has more to do with the comments on social media and other places saying that we will all need to be in isolation at home at sometime so stock up on stuff.

 

[MovingAverage]

More insanity this morning at my local Woollies. After trying to buy some yesterday only to find the shelves had been stripped bare, I took the manager's advice and arrived at 8 am this morning when they opened. My local Woollies had full shelves of dunny paper when they opened, but I kid you not within 15 mins their shelves were stripped bare again of toilet paper. The checkouts where chock-o-block with folks and trolleys full of paper and tissues. The world is officially mad--I took this pic at 8.10 this morning

 

[basilio]

Interesting to read an analysis of the issues facing the government with a failing economy , topped off by the Corona Virus and the Labour response in 2008 to the GFC,

Coronavirus is not the villain: Australia’s economy was already on a precipice
Richard Denniss
We are on the edge of recession because the government has put virtue-signalling about a budget surplus before economic advice

.....The Coalition has had fun deriding Labor for “posting cheques to dead people”, but the fact is: Labor was listening carefully to the economic advice it was being given by Treasury. In response to the GFC, Treasury advised: go hard, go early and go households.

The challenge was to get $100bn into people’s pockets quickly, and it worked. The Labor government’s good economic management helped Australia avoid recession when most other economies faltered. Hundreds of thousands of Australians kept their jobs, while millions of people globally lost theirs.

The fact that Labor posted cheques to dead people is both understandable (10,000 people die in Australia each month) and economically irrelevant. If their families spent the money it still helped stimulate the economy.

And then there’s the school halls. Of all the things a government can build quickly that will last for a century, school hall are about as good as it gets. Strangely, the Coalition seem far less concerned about the billion-dollar blowouts in the cost of their submarines (an eye-watering $200+bn) than they were were in the tens of thousands of extra dollars spent on a few shade cloths.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...australias-economy-was-already-on-a-precipice

 

[wayneL]

Jeez, looks like I'll be wiping my @ss with straw like medieval aristocracy.

On the upside, we have heaps of straw.

On the downside I don't think I'm going to enjoy wiping my @ss with straw

 

[Smurf1976]

How much toilet paper can these people possibly use?

If they're worried about health then I think improving their diet is perhaps what they need to be looking at.

 

[wayneL]

How much toilet paper can these people possibly use?

If they're worried about health then I think improving their diet is perhaps what they need to be looking at.

I think the idea is profiteering....

 

[MovingAverage]

I bought all of this this morning. I’m selling it for $100,000 if anyone is running short, but for fellow ASF members I’ll let you take the lot for the discount price of $80,000.

 

[Smurf1976]

I see that CommSec once again has a "we're experiencing a high volume of trades....." notice on the site.

First that tells me that retail investors are buying or selling in large volume, it's not just institutions etc.

Second I wonder where the limits are on what the brokers can cope with? Even for those who aren't saying anything, they'd be seeing increased volume presumably and there'd be a limit somewhere.

 

[CBerg]

I see that CommSec once again has a "we're experiencing a high volume of trades....." notice on the site.

First that tells me that retail investors are buying or selling in large volume, it's not just institutions etc.

Second I wonder where the limits are on what the brokers can cope with? Even for those who aren't saying anything, they'd be seeing increased volume presumably and there'd be a limit somewhere.

Robinhood(app primarily used by millennials to buy single/fractional US stocks because it’s free) was down all of yesterday... one of the biggest rallies ever... might encourage some to swap to a paid broker.

You do eventually get what you pay for!

 

[Smurf1976]

Another question which arises is who is buying and who is selling?

Is it retail investors buying and selling among themselves?

Or is there a broad exiting by retail and it's institutions buying or vice versa?

I'm thinking that data might actually be available somewhere?