Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[MrChow]

Since we're talking big moves today.

6000 Americans died from Swine Flu between April 2009-2010 and in these 12 months the SP500 gained +40% and recovered almost all of the GDP lost from the GFC.

Doesn't seem possible unless given context that it's just a 10% variation on the average flu season which is a fluctuation that happens naturally anyway.

 

[Knobby22]

Since we're talking big moves today.

6000 Americans died from Swine Flu between April 2009-2010 and in these 12 months the SP500 gained +40% and recovered almost all of the GDP lost from the GFC.

Doesn't seem possible unless given context that it's just a 10% variation on the average flu season which is a fluctuation that happens naturally anyway.

It really depends how many people get it, how well it is controlled. With a 0.5% death rate (and many are reporting more than this)you could be looking at something like 500,000 deaths in the USA if it takes off if 1/3 of the population gets it.
Unlike the swine flu you can't inoculate. China and South Korea have shown it can be controlled if resources are put into it.

Why do you say a 10% variation?

 

[satanoperca]

It really depends how many people get it, how well it is controlled. With a 0.5% death rate (and many are reporting more than this)you could be looking at something like 500,000 deaths in the USA if it takes off if 1/3 of the population gets it.

1/3 population, 0.5 mortality rate = 0.16% of their population
100% of the population, 0.5% mort rate = 0.5% of their population.
Wonder if it will kill more Trumps supporters and could effect his reelection?

 

[Knobby22]

1/3 population, 0.5 mortality rate = 0.16% of their population
100% of the population, 0.5% mort rate = 0.5% of their population.
Wonder if it will kill more Trumps supporters and could effect his reelection?

What if Bernie Sanders, Biden or Trump caught it? All old men. 78,77,73

 

[satanoperca]

What if Bernie Sanders, Biden or Trump caught it? All old men. 78,77,73

Time for some fresh blood in US politics.

 

[Smurf1976]

I don't lick my hand after shaking someone elses, well I think I don't.

Many do touch their face however sometime prior to washing their hands.

Putting glasses on, adjusting tie or collar, drinking or eating, blowing nose, scratching an itch etc - all are to be avoided after shaking someone’s hand and prior to washing your own.

 

[satanoperca]

The reality is, they are not going to stop this, just like the flu virus, it will spread through our communities.

Smurf, you better not fill up the car, those bowser handles have more germs than a $1 Thai hooker and when you go to pay, don't pay in cash and get change, money is also filthy dirty.

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf, you better not fill up the car, those bowser handles have more germs than a $1 Thai hooker and when you go to pay, don't pay in cash and get change, money is also filthy dirty.

Doing those things isn't the problem so long as you don't then put your hands on your face or on anything going into or near your mouth, eyes, nose.

The particular problem with a handshake is a social one in that people generally won't see it as a trigger to then go and wash their own hands.

 

[macca]

Doing those things isn't the problem so long as you don't then put your hands on your face or on anything going into or near your mouth, eyes, nose.

The particular problem with a handshake is a social one in that people generally won't see it as a trigger to then go and wash their own hands.

Hygeine is vital, as has been known since Florence Nightingale, washing our hands is the simple and most effective way of stopping the spread of germs.

Unfortunately, even our doctors and nurses often need to be reminded of this in hospitals and surgeries.

 

[MovingAverage]

Seriously...people are idiots!!! I'm a simple man (and my wife also tells me I'm a grump old man) but I just don't understand the mindset that engulfs people to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use for 10 lifetimes because of Corona....I just don't get it. Does Corona virus give people a really bad case of the shits or something 'cause I'm struggling to understand why the need to buy so bloody much? I walked into a major Sydney Woolworths supermarket today to find the shelves completely stripped bare of all toilet paper. The manager tells me they are expecting a huge crowd at their doors when they open at 8am tomorrow morning to buy all of their new delivery of toilet rolls. Feel free to flame me folks but I maintain people are idiots

 

[satanoperca]

F--k yes, how much toilet paper do you need unless you have eaten bad curry.

 

[MovingAverage]

F--k yes, how much toilet paper do you need unless you have eaten bad curry.

 

[qldfrog]

Seriously...people are idiots!!! I'm a simple man (and my wife also tells me I'm a grump old man) but I just don't understand the mindset that engulfs people to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use for 10 lifetimes because of Corona....I just don't get it. I walked into a major Sydney Woolworths supermarket today to find the shelves completely stripped bare of all toilet paper. The manager tells me they are expecting a huge crowd at their doors when they open at 8am tomorrow morning to buy all of their new delivery of toilet rolls. Feel free to flame me folks but I maintain people are idiots
View attachment 100944

very similar to stock trading:
you do not win by being right, you win by being ahead of the (stupid I agree) masses irrespective of the P/E;
So now that you can not buy rice, or toilet paper: who is better off? the lemmings stockpiling TP under their beds ?
or you the sensible one who ends up cuttings pages from his latest paper to head to the toilet next month?

When the crisis starts (I would define that point when the stress on the health system become so big it is hard to find a bed when needed), I expect to see the worst in humans.
You see already attacks on quarantine buses, on cruise tourists, what about rumours of infections etc
can get nasty very quickly

 

[MovingAverage]

or you the sensible one who ends up cuttings pages from his latest paper to head to the toilet next month?

I got a Japanese style dunny so I'm good...just as well 'cause I haven't bought a paper in years--get all my news online so cutting virtual pages out of an ipad would be a real challenge not too mention painful

 

[moXJO]

Great I need to go buy some toilet paper as well.

Well since there is no paper in the coronapocalypse good time to actually wash yourselves you grubby animals:

https://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Bidet-D...ispr=1&hash=item1a8fb0881e:g:M6oAAOSwj-5eJ-tR

 

[macca]

I guess we will just have to hold on and wait and see how it pans out

 

[Dona Ferentes]

to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use

cheaper than Kleenex, basically

 

[Dona Ferentes]

"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds"

we learn nothing

 

[sptrawler]

Seriously...people are idiots!!! I'm a simple man (and my wife also tells me I'm a grump old man) but I just don't understand the mindset that engulfs people to buy all the toilet paper they can possibly use for 10 lifetimes because of Corona....I just don't get it. Does Corona virus give people a really bad case of the shits or something 'cause I'm struggling to understand why the need to buy so bloody much? I walked into a major Sydney Woolworths supermarket today to find the shelves completely stripped bare of all toilet paper. The manager tells me they are expecting a huge crowd at their doors when they open at 8am tomorrow morning to buy all of their new delivery of toilet rolls. Feel free to flame me folks but I maintain people are idiots.

It is a real laugh, there were people at our local woolies with trolleys stacked 5 high with multi pack toilet rolls, the wife couldn't believe it.
Also it wasn't just one person, nearly every shopper had multiple packs, just shows the power the media have.
I guess somewhere, there is toilet paper making factory, working flat out the workers must be getting some OT.

 

[Country Lad]

hhmm, so if this really catches on, everybody will have 2 years supply of toilet paper. The lesson in all this must be to short toilet paper manufacturers.