Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[CBerg]

I saw a lady with a trolley full of nappies, like overbrimming full.
I've seen toilet paper for sale on Facebook buy/swap/sell groups today so maybe nappies are next, buy out the shop & hock off online.

 

[macca]

I suppose nappies are fair enough as they need to be they right size and brand for best fit but dunny paper is a bit of a laugh.

The only reason there will be a shortage is that people are panic buying

 

[moXJO]

So had a chat at the local woolies.
No toilet paper.
No rice.
Baked beans still plenty.
Slight run on oats.
Soap antibacterial was all gone.
Milk had a run, which is weird.
Everything else was stocked apparently.
But they said they have been very busy.

 

[basilio]

Is the cavalry coming ? It will be interesting to see how serious this strategy is ... By now many thousands of people and businesses would have lost around a months wages .

And we havn't seen any widespread closures of businesses.
Wouldn't want to wait too long to stem this hemorrhaging.

Scott Morrison flags plan to safeguard Australian jobs amid coronavirus outbreak
PM says government will soon release strategy to prop up businesses hit by the crisis amid concerns it could bring on a recession

Sarah Martin Chief political correspondent

@msmarto
Mon 2 Mar 2020 19.37 AEDT Last modified on Mon 2 Mar 2020 19.43 AEDT

A plan to “keep Australians in jobs” in sectors affected by coronavirus will be released by the government within weeks, amid fears the ripple effect of the illness could trigger a recession.

Ahead of a meeting of the Reserve Bank on Tuesday, where the central bank is expected to cut interest rates for the fourth time since June last year, the prime minister told parliament that the government would soon release a plan aimed at propping up affected businesses as it dealt with the economic hit of the health crisis.

“We will be focusing on ensuring that we keep Australians in jobs, we keep businesses in business, and we keep investment flowing during what will be a very challenging time for the Australian economy,” Scott Morrison said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ard-australian-jobs-amid-coronavirus-outbreak

 

[sptrawler]

I thought it was an interesting article same as you Bas, it will be interesting to see what the Government plans and if it is effective.
I think holding off on stimulus untill now has been the right thing, the unwinding of the mining boom and rampant consumerism IMO has been handled well, the part in the article where it implies people have been paying down debt with previous tax and interest rate cuts was interesting IMO.
We on ASF thought that was so, in the retail wreckage thread.

 

[Country Lad]

........ Queue dead cat for bouncing.

Some of us who have been trading for many years will no doubt remember many a dead cat bouncing.

 

[moXJO]

Some of us who have been trading for many years will no doubt remember many a dead cat bouncing.

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This is probably the first time I haven't traded a "panic" for the better part of 20 something years . I haven't even watched the xjo or xao.

Interest rates today, expecting stimulus at some point. But it's the libs so it will be tighter than a fish's ar5hole.
People are not in "panic" panic mode yet, but I'm sure the media will do it's thing.
Our economy is going into this a bit shaky. And the affected supply lines will hamper business.
Gigantic home loans and people stretched to the limit. Not to mention tourism, students up to sht.
Then we had the bushfires.

News and market can turn on a dime though. And every time I can't see the upside, I get hit from left field.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Some of us who have been trading for many years will no doubt remember many a dead cat bounce.

and I'm a keen observer of the margin call selloff, for over-leveraged retail clients. Used to be at 1400hrs (2pm), but now I believe it is at 1100.
Lending Facility: "Your LVR is over 70. Can you put any money in the linked account?"
Bunny" "When do you need it?"
L.F. "Now"
Bunny "Would tomorrow do?"
and the lucky ones get the option; L.F. "What do you want us to sell down?"

And if the market is down next day, same again. Last week, with the successive 2-3% drops must have been particularly painful for some.

 

[Smurf1976]

very similar to stock trading:
you do not win by being right, you win by being ahead of the (stupid I agree) masses irrespective of the P/E;

Indeed - regardless of the logic it's a case of buying toilet paper now or ending up without any.

 

[basilio]

Impressive graph. Looks so much like a falling knife

 

[sptrawler]

Indeed - regardless of the logic it's a case of buying toilet paper now or ending up without any.

People really have lost the plot, they must be scared witless, or something sounding similar.

 

[Smurf1976]

I saw a lady with a trolley full of nappies, like overbrimming full.

I noticed that paper towels aren't sold out but not many were left. Also paracetamol and other pain killers.

Spotted someone with a whole trolley full of toilet paper. Amazing.

That was this evening.

 

[Smurf1976]

People really have lost the plot, they must be scared witless, or something sounding similar.

Never did I ever think I'd live to see a panic to buy toilet paper.

Fuel possibly if there's a war etc, food or water perhaps in an emergency, torch batteries OK that's believable if there's a storm heading your way but toilet paper?

Of all products that would have been a long way down the list of things I'd have expected to see panic buying of.

 

[sptrawler]

I posted a few days ago, Kimberly Clarke may be a buy.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...production-runs-24-hours-20200303-p546hm.html
From the article:
Kimberly-Clark, which manufactures Kleenex toilet paper in Australia, said it had production lines running 24 hours a day at its South Australian factory to address the increased, short-term demand.

 

[Smurf1976]

The great toilet paper frenzy has how hit Jakarta:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...-govt-announces-first-covid-19-cases#cxrecs_s

Meanwhile toilet paper prices have surged, reaching $1000 per roll on the secondary market:

7 News reports one seller has tried his luck at advertising a 24-pack of 3 ply for $24,000.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/935b0fc0ee52f114507e7704d445aeba

So don't worry about gold, oil, interest rates, the Dollar or the All Ords, it seems that the real bull market is in something far more humble. Even a roll of Black & Gold brand will soon be worth a fortune if this keeps up.

Now we just need a fund manager to get in on the action and launch an ETF which tracks the price of toilet paper.

OK, the virus is potentially a very serious situation I get that but the great toilet paper mania of 2020 is one of the more bizarre outcomes of it thus far that's for sure.

 

[MrChow]

Do they realise they need to buy 6 months of food in order to use 6 months of toilet paper?

 

[qldfrog]

Never did I ever think I'd live to see a panic to buy toilet paper.

Fuel possibly if there's a war etc, food or water perhaps in an emergency, torch batteries OK that's believable if there's a storm heading your way but toilet paper?

Of all products that would have been a long way down the list of things I'd have expected to see panic buying of.

To give an explanation, there are way to make homemade masks with paper toilet or paper towel so in China and HK, people stockpiled in these 2 items plus dried noodle, rice
Wisely for the millions who ended up with mandatory mask use and appartement blocks lockout..
I would assume local Chinese community copied the trend and it then snowballed
Whatever the reason, Monday on way past toilet paper and rice, there was 3 packs left of toilet paper, 3 or 4 for rice we took one just in case..it keeps..if i had been entrepreneurial i would have taken the lot and put it on ebay... social consciousness is bad for business

 

[MrChow]

 

[CBerg]

The great toilet paper frenzy has how hit Jakarta:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...-govt-announces-first-covid-19-cases#cxrecs_s

Meanwhile toilet paper prices have surged, reaching $1000 per roll on the secondary market:



https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...t/news-story/935b0fc0ee52f114507e7704d445aeba

So don't worry about gold, oil, interest rates, the Dollar or the All Ords, it seems that the real bull market is in something far more humble. Even a roll of Black & Gold brand will soon be worth a fortune if this keeps up.

Now we just need a fund manager to get in on the action and launch an ETF which tracks the price of toilet paper.

OK, the virus is potentially a very serious situation I get that but the great toilet paper mania of 2020 is one of the more bizarre outcomes of it thus far that's for sure.

Having been through many cyclones and floods in my short time, people just panic. Didn’t the PM or this Ian Mackay bloke say make sure you’ve got enough for 2 weeks. Largely people don’t keep more than a couple of days full consumption on hand.

So whenever talking heads say stock up because of X it’s a glorious day for the Coles and Woolworths in the affected areas(which happen to possibly be everywhere in this situation).

 

[MovingAverage]