Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[moXJO]

The fall out from supply disruption will affect the next earnings period, a friend who imports furniture has been informed, his next containers wont arrive until June/July.
People who have paid a deposit are getting agitated.

It's going to get very bad. A lot of supply is in the same situation. Everything comes from China. I'm unsure how quickly it will resolve either.
Although China is back to business.

 

[moXJO]

So what's the stimulus package put together by the libs?

 

[SirRumpole]

Sydney news: Coronavirus fears cause dental practices to run short on surgical masks
Dental practices face mask shortages

Great , that will save me $600 for a couple of fillings.

 

[SirRumpole]

So what's the stimulus package put together by the libs?

Infrastructure spending I expect.

 

[MrChow]

Bit of a gap between U.S and Aus markets now:

U.S -7%
Australia -10%

May have thought given valuations in the U.S a correction would hit them harder.

 

[moXJO]

Jaguar announced that it was shipping car parts from China in suitcases

That's one way to do it...

 

[moXJO]

8 Things to Know About Ocean Freight

1. Maersk and CMA CGM are operating blank sailings
2. Hapag-Lloyd is operating as normal
3. Rates are down for Asia-US Transpacific Eastbound; bookings should be made in advance
4. Rates are steady for Europe-US Transatlantic Westbound; very low capacity - book well in advance
5. Rates are also down for Asia-Europe; low capacity due to increased blank sailings
6. Certain countries - including Singapore and Australia - are keeping ships that have been to China in a holding pattern until the crew has been declared virus-free
7. Other countries - such as South Korea - are imposing stringent screening measures
8. BDI (Baltic Dry Index) - which reflects the daily price of moving goods like coal and wheat by sea - has dropped to the lowest rates since 2016

Things to Know About Air Freight

• Commercial capacity is down over 90% with many airlines cutting passenger flights to China
• FedEx Express is maintaining service in China, but shipments are being affected
• China’s couriers have regained over 40% of normal delivery capacity and are using non-contact delivery methods
• UPS expects continued delays and has made China flights voluntary for its pilots
• DHL has currently suspended collection, delivery, and warehousing in Hubei province

 

[moXJO]

Sharp slowdown
The analysts are using the Big Data Shipping Index, created by JPMorgan analyst Anthony Wong, which tracks the worldwide movements of over 50,000 commercial ships, emitting 19,000 radio signals per second.

Mr Wong's data reveals a sharp slowdown in global shipping volumes in February. While global shipping volumes have fallen since the end of 2017, when the US-China trade war escalated, Chinese volumes are still 30 per cent lower than their historical average.

"In cumulative terms, inbound and outbound activity are both running around 30 per cent lower since Lunar New Year, February 7, relative to the historical average," Mr Wong said.

"We will look for an upturn in the index as an early signal that the growth shock from the coronavirus has faded."



https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/shipping-data-reveals-virus-hit-to-the-economy-20200226-p544oc

 

[qldfrog]

It's going to get very bad. A lot of supply is in the same situation. Everything comes from China. I'm unsure how quickly it will resolve either.
Although China is back to business.

China is officially back in business but if Shenzhen is representative, mostly empty streets and offices so far...

 

[sptrawler]

Bit of a gap between U.S and Aus markets now:

U.S -7%
Australia -10%

May have thought given valuations in the U.S a correction would hit them harder.

The U.S underlying economy is doing quite well, manufacturing increasing, unemployment at record lows.
Our economy heavily reliant on China and underlying strength, weak at best.
Just my opinion.

 

[greggles]

Ahhh... Y2K ? Or Bird flu ? Or is it terrorists ?

Fear fear and more fear.

Relevance of this flu ? Or likely ? NOT much.

Agree with big K.
Another scare campaign.

Six weeks later and it's certainly a little more serious than you guys gave it credit for.

 

[Smurf1976]

The U.S underlying economy is doing quite well, manufacturing increasing, unemployment at record lows.

If there's one thing I'll predict which goes right against mainstream thinking it's that we'll see this "increasing manufacturing" bit play out in Australia before too much longer.

There's a few rumblings beneath the surface, talks going on etc. That was before the virus but my thinking is that the virus will give that idea a push along if there's a widely perceived need to boost the economy and reliance on imports is seen as risky in terms of supply disruptions etc.

 

[qldfrog]

If there's one thing I'll predict which goes right against mainstream thinking it's that we'll see this "increasing manufacturing" bit play out in Australia before too much longer.

There's a few rumblings beneath the surface, talks going on etc. That was before the virus but my thinking is that the virus will give that idea a push along if there's a widely perceived need to boost the economy and reliance on imports is seen as risky in terms of supply disruptions etc.

I agree and we will see one or both parties pushing our tax money toward some white elephants... destined to failure in a country where innovation is not encouraged, tax system biaised and local knowledge and infrastructure sent to the junk yard and replaced by barristas and real estate speculation

 

[basilio]

IMV this is the social and economic bomb that will go off if the virus gets out of hand .
And debt is running a very close second

Among coronavirus chaos, union calls for special measures to protect millions of casual workers from COVID-19 fallout
By Lucia Stein and Felicity Ogilvie
Posted about an hour ago

Related Story: Debt is the timebomb on global markets, coronavirus just lit the fuse
Related Story: Coronavirus crisis sees RBA slash interest rates to new low of 0.5pc
Leith Hawthorne is worried about what coronavirus prevention measures could mean for her work.

As a casually employed hairdresser in Brisbane, the 41-year-old said a possible two-week quarantine would have a huge impact on her finances.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...-could-be-hardest-hit-by-coronavirus/12027382

 

[basilio]

Back to the debt issue. Just can't quite see how this plane can land safely ..

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ns-climate-of-panic-on-share-markets/12011156

 

[MrChow]

China new cases are down 97% in a month:

4th Feb - 3887
5th March - 160

Korea trending down too from a week ago:

29th Feb - 813
5th March - 467

 

[sptrawler]

If there's one thing I'll predict which goes right against mainstream thinking it's that we'll see this "increasing manufacturing" bit play out in Australia before too much longer.

There's a few rumblings beneath the surface, talks going on etc. That was before the virus but my thinking is that the virus will give that idea a push along if there's a widely perceived need to boost the economy and reliance on imports is seen as risky in terms of supply disruptions etc.

It will certainly prompt Governments to think twice, about allowing foriegn ownership of core manufacturing businesses, where they are purchased with the obvios intent of closing them and importing product.

 

[rederob]

It will certainly prompt Governments to think twice, about allowing foriegn ownership of core manufacturing businesses, where they are purchased with the obvios intent of closing them and importing product.

Given that we do not have any core manufacturing businesses, the government can do what it usually does... nothing.

 

[moXJO]

Six weeks later and it's certainly a little more serious than you guys gave it credit for.

Economically its where I thought it would be. I'm still unsure of how bad the virus will be.
I'm still cautiously at "scare campaign".

 

[qldfrog]

China new cases are down 97% in a month:

4th Feb - 3887
5th March - 160

Korea trending down too from a week ago:

29th Feb - 813
5th March - 467

French figures trending up like fire..