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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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Was just listening to an interesting interview piece on ABC radio this afternoon about why there is a run on dunny paper. Apparently, a lot of the raw paper material that is used in China for toilet paper is being directed to the manufacture of face masks so there is a shortage of paper material in China for the production of toilet paper so there is a shortage of dunny paper. A lot (not all) of the toilet paper being purchased here in Oz is being shipped over to China. Maybe some of you already know this but I'm a little slow off the mark and have been busy looking for a beach house to buy with all of the cash I get when I sell my 36 pack of dunny paper.
 
SP500 is down -11% and XAO is down -12%

That's happened (double digit correction) 11 times in the past 23 years.

Basically saying on current information this event has the same risk as the things that have happened every 2nd year.

U.S Futures seem to suggest Joe Biden is as important as Coronavirus not sure I'd go that far.
 
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MrChow said:
SP500 is down -11% and XAO is down -12%

That's happened (double digit correction) 11 times in the past 23 years.

Basically saying on current information this event has the same risk as the things that have happened every 2nd year.

U.S Futures seem to suggest Joe Biden is as important as Coronavirus not sure I'd go that far.
Click to expand...
I think Joe Bidden is as nefarious as a virus, unless he is your dad and you can get 6 figures a month just thanks to daddy. Even the democrats were hurting voting for him until Bernie arrived....
 
MovingAverage said:
Was just listening to an interesting interview piece on ABC radio this afternoon about why there is a run on dunny paper. Apparently, a lot of the raw paper material that is used in China for toilet paper is being directed to the manufacture of face masks so there is a shortage of paper material in China for the production of toilet paper so there is a shortage of dunny paper. A lot (not all) of the toilet paper being purchased here in Oz is being shipped over to China. Maybe some of you already know this but I'm a little slow off the mark and have been busy looking for a beach house to buy with all of the cash I get when I sell my 36 pack of dunny paper.
Click to expand...

I will trade you 144 rolls rolls for one beach house, I will event wipe your arse with the first roles as long as the beach house is left clean.

Been waiting for a time to deploy capital, nothing like panic, but not quite there yet, just need the death rate to increase x10. Long funeral homes
 
First 20 news articles on the main paper websites, just 3 and 4 articles relate to Coronavirus now after mass saturation in the past week.

Has focus already peaked? (will it be mirrored in the markets too)

Dow Futures are up +700 tonight.
 
MrChow said:
Has focus already peaked? (will it be mirrored in the markets too)
Click to expand...

My expectation is a second down wave.

I have no firm basis for saying that however, beyond an observation that there was no actual panic and that markets don't generally go straight down from top to bottom (meaning that we probably haven't seen the bottom).

Time will tell though, I could be wrong. :2twocents
 
Xjo would have to go under 6000 before I'd be bothered looking.

Did the US fed drop rates?
 
You know it's getting ridiculous when you have to use a "guy" to get toilet paper.
 
qldfrog said:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...what-you-should-know/articleshow/73978271.cms
Not much discussed here but indeed they have cases spreading
Click to expand...
The thing I'd like to know is it really spreading or are people just being diagnosed more now there's more attention on it? I doubt we'll ever know the answer because we can't go back in time and test everyone for it.




https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/3f10f91237ef4df6777502a303a41d4a
upload_2020-3-5_7-46-32.png
Is it really a question at this point that there's more people that have this(and probably with no more ill effects than a bad cold) than have been diagnosed? It's inconceivable to my mind that people really believe it is spreading out of control now rather than 2 months ago when most likely all of this started incubating with global travel being so darn cheap & easy.
 
By the time people get tested when they get sick, they have been contaminated..and contaminating for at least 2 weeks.
Then you start testing the associated contacts and bingo...
I believe it is spreading like fire undetected with a good fortnight delay before serious sickness, and for many not too badly affected..no sickness at all but spreading it
We are 5th of March
Let's see the state of emergency services by the end of March...
 
Data from WHO show that China is largely on top of the outbreak, with most new cases happening in other nations.
Wuhan was a unique event in that there was a denial of the problem until it was almost too late.
Internationally the problem has been exacerbated by travel operators having no health screening arrangements, yet globally airport security in particular is deemed more important. That might change?
International arrivals are also not screened in most countries - China has been an exception for some time.
As a relatively frequent traveller, I hope the lessons learned from COVID-19's spread mean I can in future arrive somewhere without having to first go to a pharmacy for some medication.
But on topic, I think it's way to early to think that the DOW's bounce overnight is signalling the worst is behind us. I reckon we are weeks to a month away from seeing how far nations will go to try and isolate themselves and their communities from the problem.
 
The fall out from supply disruption will affect the next earnings period, a friend who imports furniture has been informed, his next containers wont arrive until June/July.
People who have paid a deposit are getting agitated.
 
Humid said:
I have a fire hose straight off the bore complete with circular driveway I'm thinking of opening a drive through bidet service
Click to expand...
You need one of those window squeegees and a bottle filled with ink in case someone doesn't pay.
 
More (unexpected ?) effects of Corona Virus.

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Sydney news: Coronavirus fears cause dental practices to run short on surgical masks
Dental practices face mask shortages
The peak body for dentists says practices are facing closure due to "critically low levels" of surgical supplies amid coronavirus fears and has urged the Federal Government to intervene.
The Australian Dental Association (ADA) said dental practices across the nation were expected to run out of masks within four weeks due to extraordinary demand caused by COVID-19.
"Without surgical masks, dentists cannot treat patients safely and we run the risk of people going without treatment," said the ADA's Deputy chief Eithne Irving.
The association estimated dental practices used around 9,500,000 million masks a month as a new mask is used for each patient.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...surgical-mask-shortages-for-dentists/12026374
 

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