Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

Just in case anyone was wondering just what percentage of all this stimulus is actually being printed (basically all of it).

 

[frugal.rock]

Nah your on a hiding for nothing
If you want to claim for the damage the leaking tube caused ...no problem
The hydraulic is a different matter...like a car engine/ gearbox not covered

The difference being moving parts.
There's no fair wear component in plumbing joints, otherwise wouldn't they all be getting redone as part of regular maintenance?

The only fair wear part is the tap washer, seat, spindle and seals etc
Stick to your guns, get the plumber to right the wrong and have it put on paper.
Take that insurance fwits...

 

[sptrawler]

Nah your on a hiding for nothing
If you want to claim for the damage the leaking tube caused ...no problem
The hydraulic is a different matter...like a car engine/ gearbox not covered

Thought about what you said, I see where you are coming from, hard to insure something that requires being maintained like the car engine.
So I see you're right, like gutters if they aren't cleaned etc, looks like i'll be doing a quick job on the shower myself.
Cheers @Humid
@frugal.rock I would love to take it further, but as humid says, it will be a hiding to nothing, next time, any repair invoice won't say age.

 

[sptrawler]

What if China slams the brakes on, to hammer the U.S?

China is deliberately breaking the back of the world’s biggest financial bubble

The elephant in the room is China’s ferocious squeeze on its property giants, and it poses a big threat to the global economic recovery.

www.smh.com.au

That would be so interesting, where would your money be safe? BHP, FMG back to low prices, which companies would survive?
My guess, the banks, the new tech minerals and utilities, the rest toast.
Just my opinion. ?

 

[divs4ever]

i suspect China would brake hard enough to harm but NOT self-harm

China is still working on space research and exploration , i was expecting China and India to partner in such research but maybe Russia will have a gutful of sanctions and work closer with China in this area , ditching the International Space Station co-operation

BUT that in no way makes Australia safe , i expect China to continue business with reliable partners , and cut loose erratic ones , SOME Ozzie companies will do OK but others had better be looking for new customers , as Australia should have been since 2007 ( as a national policy )

survivors without a supportive China , that might be a tough one , the big 4 banks are seen as highly likely to receive government bail-outs ( but possibly only after depositors and shareholders have been gutted ) MQG well it has so many fingers in so many pies MAYBE it can even thrive ( repackage broken companies into pension asset funds ) , Ms Rinehart is shipping to South Korea , but is currently unlisted , FMG is liable to be respectful to any willing customer so has a good chance of surviving , gold producers should be OK ( if well run ) , copper miners as well , nickel .. well they tend to struggle a lot of the time

you would ideally be looking for companies with no/low debt AND a reliable customer base ( the low debt nukes most of the big utility companies , i assume new capital would dry up so anyone not almost fully funded now will struggle , if not currently running at a solid profit ( and some businesses will disappear anyway depending on the new way forward )

many will disagree with me when i say WOW is struggling already , i see lean times there , at least WES has diversified assets and a war-chest , COL is still to prove itself

the recent work from home trend will probably cripple office space as an investment vehicle

let's see if the banks can weather the storm ( without extra help ) first

 

[over9k]

Jobs numbers massively miss estimates:



But that's just the delta variant. Thing is, we're now heading into winter (think more infectious environments and worse immune systems). Everyone including me were expecting armageddon to begin around this time last year but then the vaccines got announced so markets just ran and ran hard.

Not really sure what's stopping the inevitable from hitting the fan this time around though. There's still a lot of people that just refuse to get vaccinated, typically those who work supplying the physical goods we're all buying (jobs like truck drivers).

Freight's going to get even more expensive I suspect as truck drivers are all owner-operators so I'm not sure they can be forced to get vaccinated. Hmm. Might have to see if their contracts can contain vaccination requirement clauses.

Might be time to grab a few UNP calls and just see.

If this line of reasoning is sound then air freight should do quite well too (Fedex & UPS). Might grab a few leaps there too.

HMMMMMMM...



Everyone, thoughts?

 

[divs4ever]

surely you didn't think this variant game was going to stop anytime soon

even IF everyone gets vaccinated 'the variants ' are roughly six months ahead of the 'boosters ' so you never catch up

so you will need a booster every three or six months , just like a dog chasing its tail and big Pharma has a cash-cow for as long as folks line up for this madness

it is all a distraction to a global economy that probably failed in September 2019

about 3 years back several economists admitted they knew of no way out of the mess except for a ( big ) war , it is starting to look like a multi-nation civil war , how the sides split up best of luck guessing that

and why would you get vaccinated given the initial delay of MOST nations closing the borders over half the world was exposed to the original virus ( with most surviving )

the virus in it's many variants is endemic and pervasive and has been unstoppable for 18 months , now sure some pills if you THINK you are getting it MIGHT help , but what do you do next compulsory flu jabs as well ( after mankind has survived the flu for centuries ) ' the jab' always arrives too late .

on the bright side this probably the pain we should have gone through to force us to fix the GFC ( say even say the 2000 crash ) we kicked the can for an extra ten years to get here .

 

[over9k]

Right, but the original vaccine still gives major resistance to the variants

 

[over9k]

 

[qldfrog]

On some non censured social media, there are talks about many providers stopping offering new life policies.
Banks first...
Not obviously due to covid itself which does not kill anyone who could access life policies, but the vaccine side effect where fit younger people drop dead. Without pre condition so unable to be filtered out by life policy providers.
Anyone having more than anecdotal evidences? And indeed,should we take a life cover while we still can,with better odds than lotto?

 

[againsthegrain]

Everybody has been saying it for years earth is over populated, there is too many of us and resources running out etc etc

It really does seem like nature or nature with a helping hand from somebody is kicking in to do some pruning.

From a pure analytical view the way our society is made up money/power buys your place on the hierarchy in our society = place on evolutionary ladder.
Since money and power is mostly inherited this does not equal the best genetic stock for our race to evolve and go forward (best man for the job) not talking about race faith or color here. Being "smart" from a rich family that buys education does not = intelligence. Forced study and cramming in a prestigious school and mentors will not bring natural intelligence level up, rather create a robot that can repeat wise quotes but not understand them or apply them.

The virus keeps mutating, keeps targeting the weaker genes, yes it is trimming down the society's fat.

Unlike war or famine which you can ride out in locked communities and mini castles with shark motes the virus is a ever evolving and seeking beast.

 

[divs4ever]

On some non censured social media, there are talks about many providers stopping offering new life policies.
Banks first...
Not obviously due to covid itself which does not kill anyone who could access life policies, but the vaccine side effect where fit younger people drop dead. Without pre condition so unable to be filtered out by life policy providers.
Anyone having more than anecdotal evidences? And indeed,should we take a life cover while we still can,with better odds than lotto?

being a person who has very little chance of buying a life insurance policy ( currently ) , my long-term stance of 'life insurance ' is that you are gambling that the company will pay out when it is time to claim and if you are dead ( and no dependents to benefit ) you may as well just invest those premiums , elsewhere betting you will survive a little longer ( and some distant relative will decide on any long-term benefits )

now sure i hold QBE and SUN so do not deny the right of others to insure their lives ( it fact earn a little profit from it )
but are vaccine effects the worry , or maybe the companies foresee a period of unrest coming ( and a higher death rate , for related disturbances )

given the move to walk away from NEW life insurance policies , how will that affect Superannuation ' extras ' in younger workers Super, over-inflated premiums due to lack of competition , or will life insurance no longer be part of the 'package ' swinging more to the 'income protection' side of things .

after all long-term health and employment/earning stability have been affected by the virus reaction in many cases as well

 

[divs4ever]

Everybody has been saying it for years earth is over populated, there is too many of us and resources running out etc etc

It really does seem like nature or nature with a helping hand from somebody is kicking in to do some pruning.

From a pure analytical view the way our society is made up money/power buys your place on the hierarchy in our society = place on evolutionary ladder.
Since money and power is mostly inherited this does not equal the best genetic stock for our race to evolve and go forward (best man for the job) not talking about race faith or color here. Being "smart" from a rich family that buys education does not = intelligence. Forced study and cramming in a prestigious school and mentors will not bring natural intelligence level up, rather create a robot that can repeat wise quotes but not understand them or apply them.

The virus keeps mutating, keeps targeting the weaker genes, yes it is trimming down the society's fat.

Unlike war or famine which you can ride out in locked communities and mini castles with shark motes the virus is a ever evolving and seeking beast.

running out of resources , or some being excessively greedy ( or lazy , and not reusing resources already in used and pushed aside )

i guess time will tell

 

[againsthegrain]

running out of resources , or some being excessively greedy ( or lazy , and not reusing resources already in used and pushed aside )

i guess time will tell

All you need is just to turn on the tv and see kim kardashian flying on a private jet from 1 20 room mansion to another, sums up all the key words you mentioned greedy, lazy and not reusing resources

 

[qldfrog]

All you need is just to turn on the tv and see kim kardashian flying on a private jet from 1 20 room mansion to another, sums up all the key words you mentioned greedy, lazy and not reusing resources

and too numerous but that's being sorted out with vaccines for a long term solution

 

[divs4ever]

All you need is just to turn on the tv and see kim kardashian flying on a private jet from 1 20 room mansion to another, sums up all the key words you mentioned greedy, lazy and not reusing resources

TV ?? despite being in a populous area the reception is nil , and i see no incentive to fix the reception issue

age is already regulating my IQ activity , i don't need media-assist

but i wasn't just talking about the billionaires ( or even the multi-millionaires ) i was talking about government departments that over-order , businesses that could be more efficient , and the list could trickle all the way down to those who don't reuse glass and plastic containers , but believe in the recycle myth

i can foresee the days when Australia will find profit by mining the municipal waste sites

 

[divs4ever]

and too numerous but that's being sorted out with vaccines for a long term solution

am not sure the 'vaccines' will be the solution , they MIGHT be increasing the problem ( excessive inequality without accompanying productivity )

i would be curled up in laughter , if all the 'new connectivity' was disrupted by solar activity , or a change in the Earths magnetic fields

 

[againsthegrain]

This thread it seems has been scorched by a solar flare ? ? ?

 

[Humid]

TV ?? despite being in a populous area the reception is nil , and i see no incentive to fix the reception issue

age is already regulating my IQ activity , i don't need media-assist

but i wasn't just talking about the billionaires ( or even the multi-millionaires ) i was talking about government departments that over-order , businesses that could be more efficient , and the list could trickle all the way down to those who don't reuse glass and plastic containers , but believe in the recycle myth

i can foresee the days when Australia will find profit by mining the municipal waste sites

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tv.google

 

[divs4ever]

i resist using Google in any form as well ( browser , search engine, TV , etc. etc.

if i want to live in an echo chamber i can close the door and plug in an electric guitar ( or keyboard ) and just create whatever i want

BTW streaming relies on our recent infrastructure success .. the NBN ( sarcasm dripping with vitriol )

downloading to USB storage works fine after it is finally finished downloading