Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[divs4ever]

Why are we talking about this in this thread?

possibly the next 'black swan'/security shutdown event

the natives are starting to get restless with lock-downs and curfews ( based on Covid )

 

[againsthegrain]

It is now the second year around, exactly the same where we were last year. Basically another lockdown another winter ending. in 1 year time I think it is not possible to be exactly in the same position. It will be interesting to look back in 1 year time on this and see did we come close to predicting.

- Obviously the vaccines are rolling out nobody will want to do lockdowns all over again with 70-80% rates, or will they?
- New strain, covid 22/23?

Now most importantly:
- Will we be printing still?
- Will rates move up/down?
- Will inflation move or transitional inflation stop?
- asx/commodities
etc etc

 

[over9k]

I'm predicting a period of "general bull****" for quite some time yet.

 

[divs4ever]

It is now the second year around, exactly the same where we were last year. Basically another lockdown another winter ending. in 1 year time I think it is not possible to be exactly in the same position. It will be interesting to look back in 1 year time on this and see did we come close to predicting.

- Obviously the vaccines are rolling out nobody will want to do lockdowns all over again with 70-80% rates, or will they?
- New strain, covid 22/23?

Now most importantly:
- Will we be printing still?
- Will rates move up/down?
- Will inflation move or transitional inflation stop?
- asx/commodities
etc etc

printing YES .. the connected people are raking in profits

rates .. sorry i can't pick that , logic says they should be higher NOW ( at least 3% ) but that would cause panic

inflation is just a misused word to grab a sound-byte on the news

commodities are liable to look good against a falling dollar ( US and Australian ) that is falling purchasing power all embedded in a bank note , i call that inflation , others use different names

the ASX , is being pumped up by super contributions , softened by big money leaving ( or taking companies private )
that will depend on actual wages and how much the super contributions get raised to ( to compensate for reduced returns )

just my own thoughts

 

[over9k]

Here you go, here's the one headline that describes basically everything since the entire world's supply of stay-at-home items like laptops, playstations etc were bought up before the end of Q2 last year:



That one headline describes essentially the last 15 months straight. There's been whipsaw events like vaccines announced and borders closed and trump getting the virus and elections won/lost and so on and so forth, but realistically speaking, underpinning literally everything else that's happened, the entire world has been nothing other than the largest case in history of supply of goods not being able to keep up with demand for this entire pandemic.

There are so many ways in which it really is no more complex than this.

 

[over9k]

And as if on cue:



See what I mean?

 

[qldfrog]

With covid,we have accelerated the digitalisation of the western economies..note..western.
Making them more attractive target and easier target for cyber attacks.
With China behind its internet wall, i would see that as the next step in the cold war.
Release/ spread covid, create panic,
Vaccines mRNA in west, countered by artificial restriction on blood thinning medecines by main key producer:China
Increasing mortality in west..blamed on nth variant
Add the killing stab: cyber attack collapsing the internet in the west.
That's complot theory ?

 

[divs4ever]

what the West DIDN'T do was take a tip from Russia and boost self-reliance and self-sufficiency

but as some mocking Taiwanese explained China simply trapped our greedy kleptocrats , cheap labour , cheap power , shielded from inconvenient regulations , and the rest is history

and since we have been overwhelmed by the desire for endless profits , we have been too lazy to do proper research and development

hopefully the younger generations will learn and improve

 

[sptrawler]

what the West DIDN'T do was take a tip from Russia and boost self-reliance and self-sufficiency

but as some mocking Taiwanese explained China simply trapped our greedy kleptocrats , cheap labour , cheap power , shielded from inconvenient regulations , and the rest is history

and since we have been overwhelmed by the desire for endless profits , we have been too lazy to do proper research and development

hopefully the younger generations will learn and improve

I dont think so, the younger generation are being fed by BNPL easy gratification ATM, the boomers era of skrimping and saving, until you can afford it, and the 25% deposits that was required for home loans, have been well and truly sent into the history books.
It wont be long before the younger generation, are tapping the boomers, to repair the want it now mentality. When they hit the, $hit I'm in trouble phase. ?
The really funny part is, it was only a couple of years ago, the millennials where cheering on the suggestion the Government should take the money off the boomers, that they are now going to need, to backfill the hole they have dug.
Don't you just love it.
Just my opinion.

 

[divs4ever]

i have seen some glimmers of hope , maybe you are looking in the wrong place

i see glimpses in those who have or are doing it tough , and have to struggle for those small gains

but will there be enough glimmers to make the difference

but when i grew up the favourite pastime was drinking and smoking and maybe listening to football on the radio , not that much different from playing hours of on-line gaming , or munching snacks while watching TV series .

 

[sptrawler]

i have seen some glimmers of hope , maybe you are looking in the wrong place

i see glimpses in those who have or are doing it tough , and have to struggle for those small gains

but will there be enough glimmers to make the difference

but when i grew up the favourite pastime was drinking and smoking and maybe listening to football on the radio , not that much different from playing hours of on-line gaming , or munching snacks while watching TV series .

Obviously we grew up in different circumstances, I had three kids by the time I was 24 and we lived on the smell of an oily rag.
Now I see everyone, has what would have been considered a luxury, in the early 1970's.
But life moves on, then a tradesman's wages was bordering on the poverty line, now a tradesman earns a very good living, times move on.
The reality of "doing it tough" re adjusts, as does the reality of "normal"
A "normal" house for a tradie back in the 1960's was a two bedroom weatherboard home of about 13 squares, that normally had the back verandah converted into a sleep out, it normally housed mum and dad and four kids and was probably rented from the State housing commission.
Now you would be on the 7.30 report if you rented that to a family of mum and dad and two kids, for being a slum lord.
Times change, as do expectations, the only thing that doesn't change is people wanting more. ?
Yet funnily, we complain about global warming, while sitting in our air conditioned McMansions.
I think tough times are coming, they havent arrived yet IMO, but it wont be long.

 

[over9k]

Obviously we grew up in different circumstances, I had three kids by the time I was 24 and we lived on the smell of an oily rag.
Now I see everyone, has what would have been considered a luxury, in the early 1970's.
But life moves on, then a tradesman's wages was bordering on the poverty line, now a tradesman earns a very good living, times move on.
The reality of "doing it tough" re adjusts, as does the reality of "normal"
A "normal" house for a tradie back in the 1960's was a two bedroom weatherboard home of about 13 squares, that normally had the back verandah converted into a sleep out, it normally housed mum and dad and four kids and was probably rented from the State housing commission.
Now you would be on the 7.30 report if you rented that to a family of mum and dad and two kids, for being a slum lord.
Times change, as do expectations, the only thing that doesn't change is people wanting more. ?
Yet funnily, we complain about global warming, while sitting in our air conditioned McMansions.

Yeah, everything's been flipped on its head like that. Same as uni grads from your generation made out like bandits whereas now the tradies are outearning them.


Most of this stuff flipped in the GFC. That was the inversion point. A lot of stuff was in motion before it, but like coronavirus, that was the point where we saw 20 years' of change in 2.

 

[over9k]

Alright markets loved powell's comments today about being very close to tapering, so everything's screamed. Good sign, but USA is not out of the woods yet.

As for how far behind the rest of the world is, time will tell. Something tells me it's, shall we say, significantly.

 

[sptrawler]

Yeah, everything's been flipped on its head like that. Same as uni grads from your generation made out like bandits whereas now the tradies are outearning them.


Most of this stuff flipped in the GFC. That was the inversion point. A lot of stuff was in motion before it, but like coronavirus, that was the point where we saw 20 years' of change in 2.

I think most of it flipped when the intellectuals hijacked the Labor Party, then decided that the education system needed overhauling.
Back then only 5% of students went to uni, the intellectuals said that was due to lack of opportunity for poor people to go to uni.
Now we have 50% of students going to uni and we are inventing degrees for them to do.
All that has happened is uni is a career path to a baristas job, because only 5% of the students are brilliant, as was always the case.
it was an example of social engineering imploding, dumb policy, that we are still trying to justify.
We need to go back to the Junior certificate, the leaving certificate and matriculation, it has been a exercise in futility.
The problem is those who need to make the changes, are worried their ineptitude will be highlighted IMO.
But as I said something has to give soon, or else everyone will have to be on $500k a year and the dole will have to be $100k a year.lol
My call is get your debt down, batten down the hatches and prepare for a storm. ?

 

[Smurf1976]

The reality of "doing it tough" re adjusts, as does the reality of "normal"

One of the most successful people I've ever met once lived in a single room flat with no running water inside and an outdoor toilet. They're worth rather a lot now.

For the record no I'm not referring to myself.

Hard times and circumstances will crush many but for others it's a blessing in disguise, it sets them on a path that ultimately leads to massive success.

Same at the societal level. From engineering to music, some of the greatest successes came out of wars, recessions, depressions, natural disasters and other bad circumstances.

For the bigger picture on this, I think the one certainty is that the economic paradigm which emerged during the 1970's has now come to an end. Like the ocean liner, it will take quite some time for the turning around to be apparent but the tipping point has been passed in my opinion. Much like the US going off any link to gold back in 1971 ultimately brought massive change throughout the world including in Australia, some of which was still unfolding within the past few years, so too this pandemic will bring change that takes decades to fully play out.

 

[Smurf1976]

I knew department stores were in decline, and have been so since well before the pandemic, but I wouldn't have guessed it was quite this drastic:

UK loses 83% of department stores since BHS collapsed​

UK loses 83% of department stores since BHS collapsed

New research reveals the sharp decline of department stores since 2016 when BHS closed its doors.

www.bbc.com

If 83% have gone since 2016, from 467 physical stores down to 79, then it would seem at least plausible that department stores will go totally extinct before too much longer at least in the UK. Indeed if there's only 79 left then, considering the population size, they must already be effectively irrelevant to most people.

Personally well here in Australia it would be close to a decade since I bought anything at all from a traditional department store unless you count discount shops like Kmart etc.

 

[qldfrog]

Hardship defines success, or at least entrepreneurship and will to succeed , but it also defines non socialist thinking.
So the labor/nanny state leaders do not want any recession , no school markings, do send free money, jobkeeper.. seeker , universal income, the whinging 7:30 reports, etc. And instead of temporary short pain, sink the whole nation, as if we were on an isolated island with no competition, and a gentle world outside the bubble.
China still laughting all the way to the cash teller.
Covid just another example in this lala land where reality is bypassed, death and struggle in denial.
With good propaganda, we will have nothing and be happy..not even freedom..and all equals ..in outcomes
"Arbeit macht frei" the old Adolf was saying, not that far from the Reset isnt it?

 

[qldfrog]

I knew department stores were in decline, and have been so since well before the pandemic, but I wouldn't have guessed it was quite this drastic:

UK loses 83% of department stores since BHS collapsed

New research reveals the sharp decline of department stores since 2016 when BHS closed its doors.

www.bbc.com

If 83% have gone since 2016, from 467 physical stores down to 79, then it would seem at least plausible that department stores will go totally extinct before too much longer at least in the UK. Indeed if there's only 79 left then, considering the population size, they must already be effectively irrelevant to most people.

Personally well here in Australia it would be close to a decade since I bought anything at all from a traditional department store unless you count discount shops like Kmart etc.

Switch from target myers to kmart big W.maybe death of department stores or just lower real wealth....

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.starnow.com.au/listing/1120700/actors-wanted-pro-vaccine-tvc-900pp/
That's a covid plus:
Actor playing sick people for tv ads..even toddler role....

 

[divs4ever]

Hardship defines success, or at least entrepreneurship and will to succeed , but it also defines non socialist thinking.
So the labor/nanny state leaders do not want any recession , no school markings, do send free money, jobkeeper.. seeker , universal income, the whinging 7:30 reports, etc. And instead of temporary short pain, sink the whole nation, as if we were on an isolated island with no competition, and a gentle world outside the bubble.
China still laughting all the way to the cash teller.
Covid just another example in this lala land where reality is bypassed, death and struggle in denial.
With good propaganda, we will have nothing and be happy..not even freedom..and all equals ..in outcomes
"Arbeit macht frei" the old Adolf was saying, not that far from the Reset isnt it?

some of the Taiwanese are laughing and mocking now , sadly not for the same reason ( because they are on the winning side , like China appears to be )

the more interesting part in all this was China is doing this despite BRICS seemingly a disorganized concept

i expected BRICS would have been an effective cooperation pact/trading bloc and grab dominance that way

the Western economy collapsed ( in September 2019 ) the virus is just a distraction

now they have forced us in a 'new normal ' do we need the WEF , IMF , WHO etc etc they have clearly not worked in the public interest might be time to put them into the dust-bin of history