Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

Disclaimer: I hold a tonne of gold and silver but do not hold any cryptocurrencies at all at the moment.

If you own a tonne of gold, can i be your friend?

 

[rederob]

It is not my personal view, you are correct on that matter, it is the views of our communities that matter.

Medical science is seeking a remedy to a global pandemic. Your bias is irrelevant to which nations, if any, are successful in producing a vaccine.

Last I checked, we live in a democratic society, people have choices. And where does it stop, cannot catch a train without showing you have been vaccinated? Cannot shop at the supermarket?

I stated a fact about vaccinations. If that is what is decided by any government as an essential element of receiving a service then it will carry the force of law.
There are other threads here that deal with personal freedoms so try your opinions there.

 

[satanoperca]

You can use some comparisons with share trading, bare with me:

Trading (individual): what is your risk profile, acceptable drawdown, portfolio heat, available capital, expected return on capital

Australian Society: what is the community risk profile in relation to deaths and freedoms, acceptable deaths, given this virus is not going away. How much will it cost short and long term to irradicate (wishful thinking).
How much capital does Australia have or our we leverage to the hill? What happens if we risk everything, go in debt 100% of GDP, no vaccine is found, faced with the same problem?

What is the govnuts exit strategy, their stop loss?

 

[wayneL]

If you own a tonne of gold, can i be your friend?

Errr... there was a liberal dose of hyperbole there

 

[wabullfrog]

Tankers loaded with Australian LNG have been put into go slow mode.

https://www.watoday.com.au/business...-as-buyers-delay-cargoes-20200716-p55cou.html

 

[qldfrog]

Tankers loaded with Australian LNG have been put into go slow mode.

https://www.watoday.com.au/business...-as-buyers-delay-cargoes-20200716-p55cou.html

Nice find
A bit upset that the Qld frog is beaten in size or market optimism by a Westerly member....

 

[sptrawler]

This morning, I was having a chat to a local coffee shop owner, and asked how things were going, he replied that he and the other coffee shops were having the best year yet so keep the borders shut.
He said this time of year most of the locals either go overseas or over East, so it is unusually busy, with most people home.
This is a W.A perspective, not sure the same applies elsewhere.

 

[Sdajii]

This morning, I was having a chat to a local coffee shop owner, and asked how things were going, he replied that he and the other coffee shops were having the best year yet so keep the borders shut.
He said this time of year most of the locals either go overseas or over East, so it is unusually busy, with most people home.
This is a W.A perspective, not sure the same applies elsewhere.

You definitely wouldn't get the same sentiment from coffee shop owners here in Melbourne!

Of course some businesses are going well. Anything to do with the pet industry (something I'm involved with, fortunately) is absolutely booming, for example. Apparently divorce lawyers and psychologists who deal with grief are doing well too. Whoever deals with cleaning up the bodies of suicide cases is probably seeing an increase in business as well.

 

[Knobby22]

You definitely wouldn't get the same sentiment from coffee shop owners here in Melbourne!

NSW Boarder Police stopping Victorians, really funny.

 

[IFocus]

This morning, I was having a chat to a local coffee shop owner, and asked how things were going, he replied that he and the other coffee shops were having the best year yet so keep the borders shut.
He said this time of year most of the locals either go overseas or over East, so it is unusually busy, with most people home.
This is a W.A perspective, not sure the same applies elsewhere.

I keep asking everyone how they are going haven't actually had a bad story yet real estate had the best June in years, small businesses are still getting turn over, everyone is still employed, cars sales are up, FIFO guys are still chugging along I think our area is in a bubble SP.

 

[ducati916]

Probably worth a read:

https://stream.org/why-you-shouldnt...x51hS16ZGpyaK8EB2s3EyShyeU7CfqvH3XwqZFA6Rgb-U

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Probably worth a read:

https://stream.org/why-you-shouldnt...x51hS16ZGpyaK8EB2s3EyShyeU7CfqvH3XwqZFA6Rgb-U

jog on
duc

Be careful Mr LeDuc, you will soon realised that even hinting at stats or figures , you know, facts... categorises you as a far right male chauvinist white suprematist.
Thanks for the info.
I was trying to find these figures of actual deaths in the US yesterday..

 

[rederob]

Probably worth a read:

https://stream.org/why-you-shouldnt...x51hS16ZGpyaK8EB2s3EyShyeU7CfqvH3XwqZFA6Rgb-U

jog on
duc

I doubt it!
Very poor analysis.
Here's the latest data from the CDC:

There is a potential lag of up to 8 weeks for the mortality data to be finally reported, so all data from the May 2020 peak is still in revision.
Briggs' is totally inept. He concludes:

"These numbers suggest we are inching closer to herd immunity, the point at which spreading the disease to new people becomes much harder. The continued fall in both official COVID-19 and all-cause deaths, also suggest we should be less worried, not more.
Surely the press and government officials are bright enough to grasp these same statistics. So, why do they insist that the crisis is growing worse? I’ll let you answer that for yourself."​

First, the USA would need around 200M positive cases to get to herd immunity at a best guess, which is more than 50 times the present number. Next, despite him recognising the data has up to an 8 week lag, he proposes it as indicative of the current situation. However, he wrote his article when both the positivity rate and the gross positivity numbers were increasing.
Briggs is one of the many examples of false experts that idealogues trot out in the hope the public turn to them for "news."

 

[ducati916]

jog on
duc

 

[rederob]

EXAM: Economics 101

On the basis of this chart, students are required to determine:

1. which of the following countries are most likely to open their economies?
2. of the countries least likely, what time frame would you propose for each before an opening-up should be reasonably considered?
3. if the data provided a reasonable basis for their answers?

 

[SirRumpole]

OK, I'll bite.

1. Germany, Italy , France , UK
2. Can't say, their cases are still rising, you would need to see a consistent reduction first.

 

[rederob]

OK, I'll bite.

1. Germany, Italy , France , UK
2. Can't say, their cases are still rising, you would need to see a consistent reduction first.

Thanks @SirRumpole.
Some things are rather obvious: neither the USA nor Brazil appear candidates for an open economy using "deaths" as the criterion.
However, the third question is, imho, the key. I regard the trend in "positive cases" as more important. My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity. I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is de rigueur.

 

[spooly74]

Thanks @SirRumpole.
Some things are rather obvious: neither the USA nor Brazil appear candidates for an open economy using "deaths" as the criterion.
However, the third question is, imho, the key. I regard the trend in "positive cases" as more important. My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity. I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is de rigueur.

Tend to agree with that.
The daily case numbers serve no purpose, now.
I'd prefer a weekly update with: Number of additional tests, Number admitted to ICU & number of deaths.
Government can work behind the scenes on outbreaks and alerts when/where necessary.

 

[over9k]

My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity. I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is de rigueur.

We have data supporting this, things like shopping centres etc were/are still wastelands even after the U.S reopened. Businesses have told people to continue working from home even when the office has been allowed to reopen. People are voluntarily/deliberately doing anything by distance which can be. They are only doing something face to face if they have no other choice.

Another natural suppressor is the simple cost(s) to business & the individual of being off work sick.

I was calling both of these things over a month ago & most on this forum laughed at or dismissed me.

 

[qldfrog]

A small remark:
If i got the virus last month and hardly cough like 75% of infected, and get tested tomorrow, i will return a positive.
The positive cases number will jump, good for catastrophic headlines but otherwise,is the situation really worse?
So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends
As i said elsewhere, Europe population has restarted.. different from govs, which make it harder to impose even basic common sense prevention .
The biggest scam but still based on a serious decease that we should at least minimise.