Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[IFocus]

Comically, one of the countries testing multiple vaccines and touting itself as being a world leader, etc etc, also boasts about having had no local transmission of the virus for a long time, making it funny to inject locals with prototypes and have them wander around in an environment they claim is free of the virus. I suppose when none of them get it they can claim success, the vaccine works. That honestly wouldn't surprise me and wouldn't be an unusual claim from that government.

Suggest you do some serious reading on how a vaccine is developed, testing on humans through most stages isn't against live viruses.........but then you would know that?

 

[Knobby22]

Comically, one of the countries testing multiple vaccines and touting itself as being a world leader, etc etc, also boasts about having had no local transmission of the virus for a long time, making it funny to inject locals with prototypes and have them wander around in an environment they claim is free of the virus. I suppose when none of them get it they can claim success, the vaccine works. That honestly wouldn't surprise me and wouldn't be an unusual claim from that government.

Just a reminder how it works Sdajii

Stage 1 is testing on a few healthy young people different doses to assess toxicity and sizing dosage.
-If the vaccine passes.
Stage 2 is testing on a larger group of people, some whom may be old or have other health issues to see if there are any side effects or other problems.
-If the vaccine passes
Stage 3 is testing on a very large number of people in an environment where the virus is present, some with the vaccine, some with a placebo. Of the ones who catch the disease, how many caught it despite the vaccine and how many caught it without the vaccine. This indicates how effective it is.

 

[Sdajii]

So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?

We already have treatments. This question has an analogue answer, not a digital one.

At one end of the spectrum we have the most basic of supportive care; letting the patient rest in bed while we bring them food, keep them warm, etc. At the other end of the spectrum we have a magic cure pill which completely disables the virus and eliminates it from the body almost instantly.

I've already posted lengthily about my thoughts on hypothetical treatments. As for current treatments, surely you haven't been living under a rock and you've heard at least some of what's going on. Hydroxychloroquine was causing widespread excitement until Trump said he thought it was worth investigating, then suddenly everyone said it was a terrible and deadly new drug despite having been in widespread use for many conditions for the best part of a hundred years, then a while later they got excited again. Ventilators are a treatment.

At this stage we're probably closer to the basic supportive care end of the spectrum than the magic cure pill end. We're obviously moving in the magic pill direction, however slowly. Maybe we'll make a quantum leap soon, maybe we won't. It's probably more likely that we won't, but we'll continue moving in that direction, and whether it's next week or next millennium, we'll make that quantum leap.

 

[Sdajii]

Suggest you do some serious reading on how a vaccine is developed, testing on humans through most stages isn't against live viruses.........but then you would know that?

Obviously. The point is that there's virtually no challenge in creating and testing a 'vaccine' to show that it's safe. That's all we can hope to achieve in these tests. I can literally come up with something in the kitchen right now which you can inject into people safely, and if I want to call it a vaccine it will pass stage 1 clinical testing with flying colours.

Most of these things being tested are barely more than that. Throw some antigens in and it's literally all they're doing. These tests are not even attempting to demonstrate efficacy, which makes the public excitement and official hype absurd.

 

[Sdajii]

Just a reminder how it works Sdajii

Stage 1 is testing on a few healthy young people different doses to assess toxicity and sizing dosage.
-If the vaccine passes.
Stage 2 is testing on a larger group of people, some whom may be old or have other health issues to see if there are any side effects or other problems.
-If the vaccine passes
Stage 3 is testing on a very large number of people in an environment where the virus is present, some with the vaccine, some with a placebo. Of the ones who catch the disease, how many caught it despite the vaccine and how many caught it without the vaccine. This indicates how effective it is.

See my post above.

 

[Knobby22]

Obviously. The point is that there's virtually no challenge in creating and testing a 'vaccine' to show that it's safe. That's all we can hope to achieve in these tests. I can literally come up with something in the kitchen right now which you can inject into people safely, and if I want to call it a vaccine it will pass stage 1 clinical testing with flying colours.

Most of these things being tested are barely more than that. Throw some antigens in and it's literally all they're doing. These tests are not even attempting to demonstrate efficacy, which makes the public excitement and official hype absurd.

The good ones, like Australia's were first tested on animals though. I agree some (most?) of them are pretty rushed and dodgy. Frankly, I think we are the big hope.

 

[Sdajii]

The good ones, like Australia's were first tested on animals though. I agree some (most?) of them are pretty rushed and dodgy. Frankly, I think we are the big hope.

The point is, there's absolutely nothing at all to give any indication or hope that any of them will work.

I'd be on board for rushed and dodgy if this virus was in the league of real pandemics like bubonic plague or smallpox. If it was actually able to affect most people (which it isn't) or kill a reasonable percentage of previously healthy people it does affect (which it doesn't), and a functional vaccine was reasonably likely to be possible to create (which it isn't) I'd see the urgency and validity in rushing through a vaccine.

Testing on animals is just a safety protocol for the initial human guinea pigs. It doesn't make the vaccine any more likely to work. If this actually was a virus worth being scared of and I thought there was a reasonable hope of a functional vaccine being created, I'd probably put myself up as a volunteer. Neither is the case so you can keep your untested vaccines away from me and preferably any worthwhile human being.

 

[rederob]

It's funny how we have a thread discussing the future and you'll whinge in this way when you don't like what someone says but you're all for it when someone does the exact same thing but you agree with it.

I said you are just guessing.
Your opinions are not based on reality.
Vaccines exist for many "diseases."
HIV is treatable and may not require a vaccine.
Medicine continues to make advances.
COV19 is preventable with sound strategies.
The economic implications to date are visible across the globe.
The questions we should be asking is why our government is ignoring some of the best practices from overseas.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just to get back on topic. I never realised there were so many doctors on here. If I had I would have had my medicare card ready.

Cryptos will be gone by this time next year. Unusual, unknown, contrarian events occur during and following pandemics.

People are flocking in to crypto and forget that governments need to take some money out of the system having poured so much in recently.

1. Get rid of Gold No
2. Get rid of the US Dollar. No
3. Get rid of Crypto. Yes

So, you heard it here first, one economic consequence of the Covid-19 Pandemic will be a squeeze on crypto.

gg

 

[Sdajii]

I said you are just guessing.
Your opinions are not based on reality.

What a stupid statement.

Vaccines exist for many "diseases."

Indeed. For some it's possible to create vaccines. For others it's not.

You say my opinions are not based on reality. Here are some indisputable facts:
1) It's very, very rare for a vaccine to be developed in less than 5 years. The fastest ever, in all of history, was about 4 years.

2) No one has ever, ever, created a vaccine for any corona virus. No type of corona virus at all. There are many different corona viruses.

3) I was born in the 1970s, long after they started trying to create vaccines for corona viruses. They are still trying to this day. It has never been done. One notable corona virus is SARS. It has been the subject of intense study and attempts at vaccine development. All attempts have failed. These attempts have been ongoing for 17 years, since the SARS outbreak. SARS attracted a huge amount of international attention and was one of the most significant virus outbreaks in modern times, hence it was had among the most funding and research.

4) SARS and SARS-COV-2 (the virus which cases the COVID-19 disease) are extremely similar. Producing a vaccine for SARS-COV-2 (AKA COVID-19 AKA Wuhan coronavirus AKA Chinavirus) is a very similar task to producing one for SARS, which has not been possible after 17 years of intensive international attempts. These attempts were not carried out long ago with less advanced medical technology, they failed and continue to fail with current day technology.

5) None of the above is my own personal opinion or speculation, it is all fact on record, easily verifiable through mainstream sources.

HIV is treatable and may not require a vaccine.

Are you able to tie your own shoelaces and go to the toilet alone yet?

A vaccine for HIV is almost certainly never going to be possible without artificial genetic alteration of humans (something which isn't going to be happening within a relevant timeframe). Sure, one day we'll have a magic bullet cure for HIV, I think at some point in the future it will happen. Probably decades, maybe longer away. That's not exactly relevant to this discussion.

 

[Sdajii]

Just to get back on topic. I never realised there were so many doctors on here. If I had I would have had my medicare card ready.

Cryptos will be gone by this time next year. Unusual, unknown, contrarian events occur during and following pandemics.

Do you see the irony here? You mock anyone making statements about genetics, virology or medicine, regardless of how well-based they may be, on the basis that the people making them are not medical doctors (I'm a qualified biologist by the way, so hey, does that make me qualified to discuss things while others are not? Obviously not).

You then go on to make a completely speculative and absolutely extreme statement about cryptocurrency! Are you a time traveller? If one needs to be a doctor to discuss the virus, what formal qualifications do you have to make the absolute statement that cryptos will be gone within 12 months?

A splendid display of hypocrisy, blatant as could be.

 

[wayneL]

Just to get back on topic. I never realised there were so many doctors on here. If I had I would have had my medicare card ready.

Cryptos will be gone by this time next year. Unusual, unknown, contrarian events occur during and following pandemics.

People are flocking in to crypto and forget that governments need to take some money out of the system having poured so much in recently.

1. Get rid of Gold No
2. Get rid of the US Dollar. No
3. Get rid of Crypto. Yes

So, you heard it here first, one economic consequence of the Covid-19 Pandemic will be a squeeze on crypto.

gg

I'm still trying to figure the whole crypto scene out, but here's where I am at at the moment....

If crypto is gone by this time next year I am going to assume the position and lubricate myself, because I know what will come next.

Gold and silver will be some comfort however.

It could be true, a crypto apocalypse. But equally, Bitcoin could go to $100,000 in very short order, according to stock to flow theory.

Risk vs reward with seem to be rather attractive.

Disclaimer: I hold a tonne of gold and silver but do not hold any cryptocurrencies at all at the moment.

 

[rederob]

What a stupid statement.

Try to keep your personal bile out of this.
Irrespective of your points, everything I said earlier is true.
There is an economic imperative for a COV19 vaccine that has driven research to new highs.
This has not been the case previously.
China is already at stage 3 trials.

On topic, should a vaccine be available next year and I had the opportunity to prioritise its use, it would be an immediate requirement for all international travel. That would open up travel/tourism/hospitality which are some of the hardest hit sectors of economies and would negate the need for countries to collaborate on "bubbles."

 

[over9k]

The moderna one is due to finish its trial march next year. Even then, it's going to take *months* to vaccinate everyone.

We're in this for a while yet.

 

[macca]

So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?

There are lots of Docs using various existing drugs and supplements that have had good results but they are not headline grabbing so they don't get air time.

Run a search on Covid .... Vitamin D, Zinc, Vitamin C and Aspirin lots of positive results that are out there but not in the news.

I have read that like AIDS, people do not die from Covid, they die from the effects of Covid, a bad one is blood clots.

Now we know many people who take an aspirin a day to thin their blood and prevent clots, why aren't people who get Covid being told to take an aspirin ?

We know that high Vitamin D levels protect from all Upper Respitory Tract infections, cold, flu and bronchitis are all lessened dramatically when people either supplement or get lots of sunshine

Vitamin C is a natural anti inflammatory, people die from the inflammation caused by Covid, some Doctors are giving intra venous Vit C with a 100% recovery rate. The Doc in New York released his paper months ago, what have we heard............zilch

No money in it mate, lets take the cash and look for a vaccine

 

[macca]

It's called an immune system.

Those compromised as such, take evasive action.

And start building up your defences now !! before you get the rotten thing

 

[IFocus]

Obviously. The point is that there's virtually no challenge in creating and testing a 'vaccine' to show that it's safe. That's all we can hope to achieve in these tests. I can literally come up with something in the kitchen right now which you can inject into people safely, and if I want to call it a vaccine it will pass stage 1 clinical testing with flying colours.

Most of these things being tested are barely more than that. Throw some antigens in and it's literally all they're doing. These tests are not even attempting to demonstrate efficacy, which makes the public excitement and official hype absurd.

Basics

The stage 2 testing is looking to see if there is any immune response and what that response is producing at what levels of dose etc.

From this testing can be done as to if this will be of any use against the covid virus.

Heaps of other things are also happening at this stage as well it is nothing like how you are describing it.

Testing against live viruses will be done with a high degree of confidence and to some degree a formality if the previous stages are completed successful.

The process for creating vaccines against viruses is well known what isnt if it can be achieved in a short time line and the efficacy of each successful vaccine.

I suspect vaccines will buy time while treatments will eventually be the answer or a combination of both.

 

[satanoperca]

Try to keep your personal bile out of this.

Wow, do you read what you write, you are a nasty man.

China is already at stage 3 trials.
On topic, should a vaccine be available next year and I had the opportunity to prioritise its use, it would be an immediate requirement for all international travel. That would open up travel/tourism/hospitality which are some of the hardest hit sectors of economies and would negate the need for countries to collaborate on "bubbles."

Trust is a thing earned first and China is lacking that.

As for imposing a person must be injected with a substance to be allowed international travel, good luck with that, you must be living in an alternate universe.

And why stop there, a tracking chip under everyones skin might also help determine why and where clusters occur.

 

[rederob]

Trust is a thing earned first and China is lacking that.
As for imposing a person must be injected with a substance to be allowed international travel, good luck with that, you must be living in an alternate universe.
And why stop there, a tracking chip under everyones skin might also help determine why and where clusters occur.

Your personal views are not relevant to medical science.
Going back many years, our children were only able to participate in childcare if they were vaccinated. We were happy to comply.
People that prefer their children have the ability to kill others by infecting them as it is their right have a warped view acting responsibly.

 

[satanoperca]

It is not my personal view, you are correct on that matter, it is the views of our communities that matter.

Last I checked, we live in a democratic society, people have choices. And where does it stop, cannot catch a train without showing you have been vaccinated? Cannot shop at the supermarket?

You sound like an academic, sounds good on paper, but in real life, just doesn't work. Aka the current situation.