Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[over9k]

A small remark:
If i got the virus last month and hardly cough like 75% of infected, and get tested tomorrow, i will return a positive.
The positive cases number will jump, good for catastrophic headlines but otherwise,is the situation really worse?
So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends
As i said elsewhere, Europe population has restarted.. different from govs, which make it harder to impose even basic common sense prevention .
The biggest scam but still based on a serious decease that we should at least minimise.

We aren't concerned with whether the situation is worse frog, we're concerned with how whatever's going on effects markets.

I've quite deliberately refrained from posting my personal opinion(s) about the outbreak itself.

 

[qldfrog]

We aren't concerned with whether the situation is worse frog, we're concerned with how whatever's going on effects markets.

I've quite deliberately refrained from posting my personal opinion(s) about the outbreak itself.

Please read again my post, i mean read..even with my foreign mistakes
Just to highlight
So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends
Pretty clear i though
So the whole post is about looking not at numbers of infections but media coverage to determine and judge the economics impacts and way to profit from it.
100pc what this very thread is supposed to be, no?

 

[over9k]

Please read again my post, i mean read..even with my foreign mistakes
Just to highlight
So is @over9k view based on facts or on news headlines?
Does not matter, I agree in term of. Investment success, effects on shopping centre attendance etc but is fundamental in both damages to the economy and detection of the end of the virus trends
Pretty clear i though
So the whole post is about looking not at numbers of infections but media coverage to determine and judge the economics impacts and way to profit from it.
100pc what this very thread is supposed to be, no?

You said:

A small remark:
If i got the virus last month and hardly cough like 75% of infected, and get tested tomorrow, i will return a positive.
The positive cases number will jump, good for catastrophic headlines but otherwise,is the situation really worse?

I'm saying it doesn't matter if the situation is actually worse or not and we're not here to discuss it either way. We're only here to discuss how to make money from whatever happens.

 

[SirRumpole]

I'm saying it doesn't matter if the situation is actually worse or not and we're not here to discuss it either way. We're only here to discuss how to make money from whatever happens.

So you wouldn't mind non monetary comments on the virus going here ?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...sars-cov-2-outbreak-discussion.35174/page-106

 

[qldfrog]

I would just like a bit of balance.
Yes it can be bloody nasty, maiming or killing, but we are looking at economics
Having a 20y becoming unable to work is different from a 70y old being in a wheelchair.
A 40y old dying does not have the same economic weight than an 80y old dying, and worse for the PC brigade:
A 60y old stem researcher is probably much more important for the economy than an obese diabetic 30y old on welfare.
Harsh but do we want to look at economics or not?
And if we do, we need to look at actual death per age, per socio professional categories and also the impacts of lockdowns separately from actual virus damages.
Where are the figures,why?
Out of this, we should be able to determine real effects and economic opportunities but that means stopping focusing on the number of detected cases.i personally eould not be surprised to see a final infection rate in the 50 pc in a couple of years here and elsewhere
And as time will tell,it will not be be end of the world as we know it

And then

 

[ducati916]

Data:



jog on
duc

 

[moXJO]

Thanks @SirRumpole.
Some things are rather obvious: neither the USA nor Brazil appear candidates for an open economy using "deaths" as the criterion.
However, the third question is, imho, the key. I regard the trend in "positive cases" as more important. My view is that unless you can keep the lid on positive numbers, then community confidence becomes a natural suppressor of economic activity. I hold that view for Australia, but not for the USA and a few other countries where "fake news" is de rigueur.

No one would be a candidate if you went on infection spikes and community spread.
And its not a true "open economy" until you can get overseas travellers.
Victoria shows how quickly we go from zero to lock downs.

We can mitigate as much as we like, but its learn to live with it till (if)vaccinations arrive. At minimum better treatment.
And at some point economics will outweigh deaths and fear mongers.

 

[rederob]

Believe me it does, which is why europe is over, as is US btw if you look at the death curve,
and Brazil and Australia getting worse
Brazil in winter is not all copa cabana...

Your claims are again not supported by data, showing you are again making false claims.
Here's the USA in the middle of summer:


And here's India in summer, as well:


And here's Brazil in the middle of winter, with rates not declining:

 

[rederob]

I'm saying it doesn't matter if the situation is actually worse or not and we're not here to discuss it either way. We're only here to discuss how to make money from whatever happens.

True in part.
I distinguish between investing and trading. And trading varies as well, depending on typical duration.
Right now you can invest in gold equities with a degree of surety that was not there over a year ago.
You can also look at some of our big miners who are doing relatively well, in part due to COV19 effects in the Americas affecting production.
From an internal perspective, many of our tech and related stocks are doing well, as are those businesses which have leveraged platforms allowing purchases/transactions from home.
Many of the trends affecting local markets are relatively clear.
Not so with international markets, and Oz companies with varying exposure to them.
Right now it remains unclear how the US attempt to open its economy will be affecting us from day to day. While I see it as a disaster waiting to happen, those controlling US money supply can hang us out to dry for a good while longer.

 

[waterbottle]

I think the positivity rate is the most important leading figure... @ducati, what is your source for those numbers?

 

[qldfrog]

stats, not immunology is the rule maker:
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
and that is just an easy search which can be easily correlated to actual weather pattern in Europe ..but probably a coincidence I am sure
Note that is not the article I initially linked as that article was giving actual temp range and moisture level affecting transmission
of course if someone cough on you for 1h in a dry and hot weather, that will probably not be enough to spare you..
And are you surprised by the resurgence in Melbourne Sydney now? I am not just surprised Tasmania was not affected earlier more than it was, and SA is still clear it seems..will come

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Look at location of cluster in italy france and spain, how do you explain it
And as for actual research:
Maximum contamination is achieved is cold ( but not frozen ) humid environment
Aka winter..but not in qld
Plenty of real research there.i posted a link ages ago.
Condition incidentally reproduced in slaughterhouses which are often prime targets.
You can get the flu in summer, you can get covid in summer but it will have a lower R factor
Obviously summer in Oslo or winter in Cairns , differ from winter in Edinburgh or summer in Dubai.
All that info freely available for who cares to look.
To be honest, really sick of fighting propaganda with facts.
Not specifically you Gg.
DYOR or just repeat after me
"We are doomed unless we lockdown, but a vaccine will save us before the end of year, and the US is a slaughterhouse because of Trump"

As my epidemiologist friend says, correlation not causation.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

stats, not immunology is the rule maker:
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
and that is just an easy search which can be easily correlated to actual weather pattern in Europe ..but probably a coincidence I am sure
Note that is not the article I initially linked as that article was giving actual temp range and moisture level affecting transmission
of course if someone cough on you for 1h in a dry and hot weather, that will probably not be enough to spare you..
And are you surprised by the resurgence in Melbourne Sydney now? I am not just surprised Tasmania was not affected earlier more than it was, and SA is still clear it seems..will come

I'd suggest you take up darts, mate.

gg

 

[moXJO]

I think the positivity rate is the most important leading figure... @ducati, what is your source for those numbers?

I think hospitalisation rates are the most important.

 

[qldfrog]

I'd suggest you take up darts, mate.

gg

and I suggest to keep safe in NQ GG, do not travel south until september.

 

[qldfrog]

As my epidemiologist friend says, correlation not causation.

gg

link to study added if you are really interested in knowing, you should, we are actually much safer here in QLD, and not because of the clown in our state gov.

 

[rederob]

stats, not immunology is the rule maker:
https://idpjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40249-020-00708-0
and that is just an easy search which can be easily correlated to actual weather pattern in Europe ..but probably a coincidence I am sure
Note that is not the article I initially linked as that article was giving actual temp range and moisture level affecting transmission
of course if someone cough on you for 1h in a dry and hot weather, that will probably not be enough to spare you..
And are you surprised by the resurgence in Melbourne Sydney now? I am not just surprised Tasmania was not affected earlier more than it was, and SA is still clear it seems..will come

Your link has not shown that that the reproduction rate is different when temperatures increase.
To arrive at that conclusion you need to actually use data from warmer regions as well, and they have not!
If @qldfrog's idea had merit, it would need to explain the trends in India and the USA, let alone why this could happen in Iran:


As for spread in Vic and NSW, it has already been tracked back genetically to people involved in securing overseas arrivals. It has zero to do with "temperature."

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

link to study added if you are really interested in knowing, you should, we are actually much safer here in QLD, and not because of the clown in our state gov.

Thanks mate.

I don't follow health links unfortunately. I ask my doctor if I'm worried.

The main message in this Coronavirus thingo should be :

DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD

One of the deficiencies of democracy, unlike in totalitarian states like China, is that one cannot take muppets out behind a wall and shoot them if e.g they don't perform as guards at Quarantine hotels nor indeed if said muppets have broken quarantine.

After the first one or two dozen were shot everybody would social distance and stick to quarantine and not whinge and .....

Do what they are told.

gg

 

[over9k]

Thanks mate.

I don't follow health links unfortunately. I ask my doctor if I'm worried.

The main message in this Coronavirus thingo should be :

DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD

One of the deficiencies of democracy, unlike in totalitarian states like China, is that one cannot take muppets out behind a wall and shoot them if e.g they don't perform as guards at Quarantine hotels nor indeed if said muppets have broken quarantine.

After the first one or two dozen were shot everybody would social distance and stick to quarantine and not whinge and .....

Do what they are told.

gg

We all know where that leads though.

Democracy is the worst form of government we have, except all the others.


But back to economic consequences of the virus...

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

We all know where that leads though.

Democracy is the worst form of government we have, except all the others.


But back to economic consequences of the virus...

Like the good ole USA which will be economically stuffed and lose it's first mover advantage.

As they say there, after quoting some bloody Amendment or other.

Wheeeeee Hawwwww.

gg