Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[rederob]

My Mum who plays golf: LOCKDOWN! (except golf courses...)

She has a friend:

And Trump proves that social distancing is easy when you are playing around.

 

[rederob]

Reporting season starts soon, so at least then we will see the economic fallout to business.
From personal observations of family, friends and aquintances, all are working and all except for the one who owns a travel agency, seem to be doing o.k.
That is in Perth and country W.A, it may be worse over East, as it depends a lot more on the service and tourism industries.

Queensland tourism doing really well right now, except for people limits on major attractions.
State likely to be out of debt soon reaping trillions of dollars from cashed up Mexicans trying to lie their way over the border.
I thought there was a money making opportunity in supplying brown paper bags, but in Hinze sight it was not a good idea.

 

[over9k]

After today's results & market, I'm cautiously optimistic that this "lock victoria out and whack-a-mole" approach might just work.

As for how long it'll take victoria to reopen is another question. By september is looking doubtful.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I'm cautiously optimistic that this "lock victoria out and whack-a-mole" approach might just work.

As for how long it'll take victoria to reopen is another question. By september is looking doubtful.

NT has just blocked people from Sydney traveling to their state.

Also; I found a credible article from an energy industry body, that I posted on the electric car thread. May help with your stock picks. Might want to listen to the KPMG analysts rather than the crazy fantasy narrative.

 

[Sdajii]

There are over 100 vaccine candidates.
One or more may be effective enough to be in production next year.
Right now we do not know.
What we do know is that if there we get a viable vaccine, then it can be prioritised to the aged and those younger with chronic susceptible heath conditions.

It wouldn't matter if there were millions of prototype vaccines being trialed. It's either conceptually possible or it isn't. The human immune system is what it is, and no number of vaccine prototype trials will change that. It's overwhelmingly most likely that we will never have a functional vaccine for this virus.

I think you'll find that it's not just a little over 100 prototypes being tested, it's far, far more. I've followed a few of them. They seem to be a mixture of 'The government has demanded that our department try to do something, we have to at least look like we're trying, and hey, we're getting a tonne of funding so let's go' and 'If we pretend we have a hope of finding a vaccine the government is going to throw a tonne of money at us, so for Pete's sake, throw a proposal together ASAP so we can get on that gravy train, and we'll write up reports as promising as possible along the way to milk it for as long as we can' and 'Look at how wonderful our medical industry is, our country will probably be first produce the vaccine, we are the best in the world, all eyes on us to admire us (and we hope you forget this down the track when nothing comes of it, which is a fair bet, because people do have very short memories)' - two countries in particular come to mind on this one, and one of them likely believes it's own bovine faeces, with medical departments clearly not.

Keep in mind that there's a heap of money being thrown around. The money is given by governments. The governments are run by people with no medical training or knowledge. Anyone who says "A vaccine is a pipe dream" will get no money. Anyone who says "Uh... yep! Yessirree!!! I'm highly confident my team can produce a vaccine! Yes, sir!" is going to have a much higher chance.

I don't claim to be a virologist and I'm certainly not a doctor or anything, but the head of the WHO literally has less relevant tertiary education on this topic than I do!

I have studied microbiology and genetics. I don't claim to be an expert, but I know a reasonable amount. When I heard they were taking a course of action based on the expectation of a vaccine coming 'soon' I thought I was in the twilight zone, it just doesn't make sense. The more I researched, the more insane a course of action I see it is, but, the more it makes sense for the reasons above ($$$ talks and the people dishing it out don't know what it's doing and the $$$ are incentive for people who do know what they're talking about to pretend a vaccine is likely). There are plenty of virologists saying exactly what I am; a vaccine is extremely unlikely.

There's a lot of talk about recovered patients only having antibodies for around 6 weeks. If that's true, it takes the chances of a vaccine being possible from tiny to negligible. If this is the case, we'll see governments backed into a corner having to find ways to save face. Either they'll just openly have to admit they were wrong, or they'll use ineffective vaccines to save face.

Comically, one of the countries testing multiple vaccines and touting itself as being a world leader, etc etc, also boasts about having had no local transmission of the virus for a long time, making it funny to inject locals with prototypes and have them wander around in an environment they claim is free of the virus. I suppose when none of them get it they can claim success, the vaccine works. That honestly wouldn't surprise me and wouldn't be an unusual claim from that government.

 

[Smurf1976]

There's a lot of talk about recovered patients only having antibodies for around 6 weeks.

If that's the case and this is going to be circulating effectively forever then it would seem to be a definite negative for business.

Higher health costs so almost certainly higher taxes and it's hard to see anyone escaping that.

Probably higher rates of staff absent from work due to illness and a "trigger happy" response to anyone showing even a hint of symptoms.

Both are costs from a business perspective. Smaller costs than a lockdown obviously, but costs nonetheless.

 

[Sdajii]

If that's the case and this is going to be circulating effectively forever then it would seem to be a definite negative for business.

Higher health costs so almost certainly higher taxes and it's hard to see anyone escaping that.

Probably higher rates of staff absent from work due to illness and a "trigger happy" response to anyone showing even a hint of symptoms.

Both are costs from a business perspective. Smaller costs than a lockdown obviously, but costs nonetheless.

If it's the case, and it may well be, the disease will probably mutate and become milder (it's already very mild/asymptomatic for most people) and those highly susceptible to it will be removed from the population (not something I'm advocating, just a statement of inevitable reality, all we can do is delay it a little, and it's something which has happened many times with other diseases, a topic very interesting for anyone curious enough to do some reading on it, a topic I studied as part of my genetics major and take a look at from time to time). It will probably continue to knock out a few old and sickly people just as the flu does.

In time, it'll just be dealt with the way we deal with the flu. People generally don't want to get too close to someone with the flu, some don't really care.

The whole panic is completely overblown even if this is the scenario we're facing. However you look at it, if this is the nature of the bug, we inevitably need to accept that people are going to repeatedly get exposed to it.

It's possible, and something I'd love to see, that it will bring about a medical revolution in virus treatment (as opposed to prevention). We currently have a very very limited ability to treat viruses other than supportive care while the immune system does the job. I don't believe a particularly effective vaccine is at all possible for this virus (such a thing depends on the ability to teach the human immune system being able to do something it probably just can't do, just like the world's best teacher couldn't teach me to fly or run a mile in 20 seconds, no matter how many billions of dollars in how many countries went into training however many teachers because my body is only capable of a certain range of things, just as my immune system is, no matter what antigens you show it, unless we want to genetically engineer humans to have enhanced immune systems, but we don't have that technology yet anyway). But, I have no doubt that it is possible to develop technology which will cure diseases using many different methods. Whether these technologies are just beyond our current reach and we'll see them developed imminently or if they're still decades or centuries away I have no idea. It is absolutely possible (even if far beyond our current ability, these things can exist) to develop complex molecules which will destroy viruses or inhibit their ability to replicate (similar to the way antibiotics work). Basically, if our existing immune systems can clear a virus from our bodies, it is obviously possible for us to not only synthetically replicate what our immune system does, but to create a tremendously enhanced version. Alternatively, and far, far more challenging and definitely a very long way outside our current technological reach (probably not within our lifetimes, but who knows...) we could genetically modify humans to have intelligently engineered immune systems. Difficult as it is, it's certainly technically possible to make us completely and utterly immune to any pathogen, and have extreme resistance to poisons. Once the technology is good enough to do this easily and reliably I'm sure people will go for it, but it may be centuries before it happens. I wouldn't be surprised to see some form of medical breakthrough to treat viruses in the next few years though, and that's definitely what I'd like to see being worked on.

 

[rederob]

It wouldn't matter if there were millions of prototype vaccines being trialed. It's either conceptually possible or it isn't. The human immune system is what it is, and no number of vaccine prototype trials will change that. It's overwhelmingly most likely that we will never have a functional vaccine for this virus.

You continue to post a lot of "guesses."
Try to post on what you know.
For example, you said "In time, it'll just be dealt with the way we deal with the flu." There are no reputable medical scientists who make this claim now, for the basic reason that the flu does not cause a level of sepsis that shuts down organs leading to death in the manner COV19 does. As COV19 continues to mutate it might become less severe and maybe then that claim will not be far off the mark.

 

[Knobby22]

Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data
Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

We already know the figure are corrupted, now the corruption will be absolute.
The death rate is already not correct as many people are not counted of dying from covid if they have a pre-existing condition or if they die at home. I predict the death rate will now reduce to about 100. In reality it is likely to be at least 2000.
Also the virus spread will officially be greatly reduced.

Can you fool most of the people most of the time? We shall see.

 

[SirRumpole]

Trump Administration Strips C.D.C. of Control of Coronavirus Data
Hospitals have been ordered to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and send all patient information to a central database in Washington, raising questions about transparency.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/14/us/politics/trump-cdc-coronavirus.html

We already know the figure are corrupted, now the corruption will be absolute.
The death rate is already not correct as many people are not counted of dying from covid if they have a pre-existing condition or if they die at home. I predict the death rate will now reduce to about 100. In reality it is likely to be at least 2000.
Also the virus spread will officially be greatly reduced.

Can you fool most of the people most of the time? We shall see.

First lesson of the dystopia.

Control the information and you control the populace.

He's learned from China well.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

First lesson of the dystopia.

Control the information and you control the populace.

He's learned from China well.

Democracy is not a good environment in which to overcome a pandemic.

On the other hand having the Orange Clown in charge in Washington is not a good omen for an adequate pandemic response even a totalitarian one.

gg

 

[jbocker]

Can you fool most of the people most of the time? We shall see.

Are they saying the US Centre of Disease Control is a failure? And that the wonders of Washington will resolve the failures (in numbers).
I see Donald has adopted Masking lately. Maybe more comprehensively that first thought.

You CAN fool most of the fools all the time.

 

[jbocker]

And Trump proves that social distancing is easy when you are playing around.

Bill Clinton would not agree.

 

[jbocker]

Queensland tourism doing really well right now, except for people limits on major attractions.
State likely to be out of debt soon reaping trillions of dollars from cashed up Mexicans trying to lie their way over the border.

I am really surprised that they could manage to squeeze in the Vic AFL teams and their admin. It IS a very smart move on cashing in on the Vic Virus issues, and using it to further adopting a real football code. (sorry was that an elephant in the room?)

 

[rederob]

Bill Clinton would not agree.

Off course, although Bill teed up another moniker when his balls were caught in a bad lie.

 

[sptrawler]

The W.A Government is taking the opportunity to try and stimulate population growth in the NW, I hope it works and encourages more to live where they work, rather than FIFO. It works better for family life, the community and building a stronger local economic model, so companies can develop industries.
With the talk of the solar/wind, hydrogen projects being built in the N.W, it is imperative that a local workforce is available, to capitalise on the opportunity IMO.
It would be terrible if we have to go back to the 457 model, as we did in the mining construction boom, because we couldn't source Australian labour.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-07-16/affordable-regional-land-prices-in-wa/12458690

 

[Sdajii]

You continue to post a lot of "guesses."
Try to post on what you know.
For example, you said "In time, it'll just be dealt with the way we deal with the flu." There are no reputable medical scientists who make this claim now, for the basic reason that the flu does not cause a level of sepsis that shuts down organs leading to death in the manner COV19 does. As COV19 continues to mutate it might become less severe and maybe then that claim will not be far off the mark.

It's funny how we have a thread discussing the future and you'll whinge in this way when you don't like what someone says but you're all for it when someone does the exact same thing but you agree with it.

By all means say you disagree, that's fine, have your own say, that's okay, but it stupid to tell someone else they shouldn't, which I haven't ever done.

If you prefer (I thought this obviously went without saying, but hey, maybe you need it spelled out explicitly), according to what I know about virology based on my studies in microbiology and genetics and the personal research I've done out of interest, it seems clear that an effective vaccine is extremely unlikely (and there are countless 'recognised experts' saying that anyway) and that like it or not, until there's a cure, which is almost certainly not coming within the next 5-10 years as it would be a completely revolutionary technology which currently does not exist at all, in the not too distant future we'll be dealing with this much as we deal with the flu now, because there's really no alternative other than indefinite shutdown of the world (which would not work because whichever state decided not to shut down would take over the states which were shut down).

Is that acceptable to you?

Obviously if we're having a discussion about the future there will be opinion and guesses involved! If members here are not supposed to have personal input, what is the point of anyone bothering to learn anything? We can just watch CNN or Fox and dutifully believe what they tell us without question and then parrot it to each other.

 

[SirRumpole]

It's funny how we have a thread discussing the future and you'll whinge in this way when you don't like what someone says but you're all for it when someone does the exact same thing but you agree with it.

By all means say you disagree, that's fine, have your own say, that's okay, but it stupid to tell someone else they shouldn't, which I haven't ever done.

If you prefer (I thought this obviously went without saying, but hey, maybe you need it spelled out explicitly), according to what I know about virology based on my studies in microbiology and genetics and the personal research I've done out of interest, it seems clear that an effective vaccine is extremely unlikely (and there are countless 'recognised experts' saying that anyway) and that like it or not, until there's a cure, which is almost certainly not coming within the next 5-10 years as it would be a completely revolutionary technology which currently does not exist at all, in the not too distant future we'll be dealing with this much as we deal with the flu now, because there's really no alternative other than indefinite shutdown of the world (which would not work because whichever state decided not to shut down would take over the states which were shut down).

Is that acceptable to you?

Obviously if we're having a discussion about the future there will be opinion and guesses involved! If members here are not supposed to have personal input, what is the point of anyone bothering to learn anything? We can just watch CNN or Fox and dutifully believe what they tell us without question and then parrot it to each other.

So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

So , if we can't get a vaccine, is a treatment possible ?

My doctor says NO.

That's good enough for me.

gg

 

[wayneL]

My doctor says NO.

That's good enough for me.

gg

It's called an immune system.

Those compromised as such, take evasive action.