Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

I can't see U.K car companies or manufacturing coming to aus when aus doesn't even have a manufacturing sector any more.

We don't have much manufacturing left but it's not zero.

A few years ago I took a photo of a passenger ferry at a port in France.

Only reason I took the photo is that the ship was built in Tasmania about 3km from where I used to live and Incat are still building them there today. That's locally designed and manufactured, it's not just assembling someone else's design etc. https://www.incat.com.au/

Incat built vessels have held the record for the fastest Atlantic crossing by a commercial passenger vessel since 1990 by the way so they're pretty serious with what they design and build. "Hoverspeed Great Britain" (built in Hobart) won the Hales Trophy in 1990 and the record has since been broken twice, on both occasions by other vessels built by Incat in Hobart.

We do still make some things in Australia and some of it's right at the top in terms of quality and so on. Not enough in my opinion but it's not zero.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I'm not entirely in disagreeance with your predictions reference the future, but enough to make up the difference from the losses from the EU I think is a hell of a stretch.

I think you're forgetting that aus, canada, nz all lost many of the same industries that the u.k did - many of them far more so. For example, I can't see U.K car companies or manufacturing coming to aus when aus doesn't even have a manufacturing sector any more.

I think it will be largely within the industries of energy, mining, agriculture, aquaculture; as Australia, Canada and New Zealand can supply the UK with all these needs easily. Then there is the UK financial wizardry and UK defense expertise that Australia should also benefit from.

 

[qldfrog]

Following that debate with interest:
About UK and commonwealth helping us...dream baby dream.i do not try to offend anyone but this seems like a 100y old back to the past jump.
The UK is of no importance anymore.its financial market place was just as a headpoint in an English speaking world for EU access.
Due to immigration, its links are growing not with Canada, Australia or NZ but with India Pakistan and Nigeria.it is no wonder Jaguar is now Indian...a symbol...
UK as a power of any significance is long gone,and has long lost engineering and technical skills.this is no Germany.
India will grow but anyone working with both Indians and Chinese will quickly see India is not the next China . Indonesia has serious strength but also a serious weakness which is religious/cultural ..not PC to name it but why are not Pakistan and Bangladesh powerhouses?
They nevertheless remain consumption giants
We can provide food and resources to them but that means ramping up the chain and not sending live cattle, iron ore..otherwise, China will get the added value and we will get the peanuts.. Germany has an old population but they are economically powerful, so will be the China of the 50y future, potentially outsourcing the sweatshops to Vietnam Burma etc..
The ruthless in business and existing powerful network of overseas Chinese makes it a given.
The only factor possibly limiting that move is the greed of the CCP which will stop at nothing to stay in power, potentially against their own country interests..so risk of war, etc
My views...

 

[over9k]

I largely agree with you frog

 

[qldfrog]

I largely agree with you frog

It is ok you will recover.i also sometimes agree with you .painful indeed. Our difference of opinion is more on you focusing on the public virus scare and its effect on the market..it has some sure: look at your investments and you are not alone..so i assume you made money out of your view and so see it validated,/confirmed.
I now considered the virus hit over.some legacy obviously...hard one but over.i invested that way..and made money.so see my views etc etc
I believe the truth is in the middle .learn how to exit Zoom soon enough and for me to track volatility and market wisely to exit my positions if need be...
I exited this week as this market can not be set aside for a week without risk, will be back in on Monday..this is a journey

 

[over9k]

War looks a near certainty at this point. There was a border clash with india just last weekend.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Following that debate with interest:
About UK and commonwealth helping us...dream baby dream.i do not try to offend anyone but this seems like a 100y old back to the past jump.
The UK is of no importance anymore.its financial market place was just as a headpoint in an English speaking world for EU access.
Due to immigration, its links are growing not with Canada, Australia or NZ but with India Pakistan and Nigeria.it is no wonder Jaguar is now Indian...a symbol...
UK as a power of any significance is long gone,and has long lost engineering and technical skills.this is no Germany.
India will grow but anyone working with both Indians and Chinese will quickly see India is not the next China . Indonesia has serious strength but also a serious weakness which is religious/cultural ..not PC to name it but why are not Pakistan and Bangladesh powerhouses?
They nevertheless remain consumption giants
We can provide food and resources to them but that means ramping up the chain and not sending live cattle, iron ore..otherwise, China will get the added value and we will get the peanuts.. Germany has an old population but they are economically powerful, so will be the China of the 50y future, potentially outsourcing the sweatshops to Vietnam Burma etc..
The ruthless in business and existing powerful network of overseas Chinese makes it a given.
The only factor possibly limiting that move is the greed of the CCP which will stop at nothing to stay in power, potentially against their own country interests..so risk of war, etc
My views...

Pakistan is an unstable hotbed of terrorism. There is a serious terrorist attack, just about every day in Pakistan.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

It is ok you will recover.i also sometimes agree with you .painful indeed. Our difference of opinion is more on you focusing on the public virus scare and its effect on the market..it has some sure: look at your investments and you are not alone..so i assume you made money out of your view and so see it validated,/confirmed.
I now considered the virus hit over.some legacy obviously...hard one but over.i invested that way..and made money.so see my views etc etc
I believe the truth is in the middle .learn how to exit Zoom soon enough and for me to track volatility and market wisely to exit my positions if need be...
I exited this week as this market can not be set aside for a week without risk, will be back in on Monday..this is a journey

It is the tsunami of non-performing loans that are going to take the market by surprise. We need access to credit default swap prices as an indicator to see if the big boys are taking out insurance now.

 

[ducati916]

It is the tsunami of non-performing loans that are going to take the market by surprise. We need access to credit default swap prices as an indicator to see if the big boys are taking out insurance now.

It's fine. Fed. has their back.



jog on
duc

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

It's fine. Fed. has their back.

View attachment 105166

jog on
duc

How is the FED ever going to unwind its balance sheet? The FED are still holding the toxic assets/junk from the last GFC.

 

[over9k]

No they can just print the money, and will.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

This is only to the beginning of this year. The FED backed into a corner, no way they will be able to unwind without causing a financial crisis.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

FED are currently holding ~$2 trillion in mortgage backed securities junk


https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/h41.htm#h41tab1

 

[over9k]

like i said, printing press go brr

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

like i said, printing press go brr

 

[jbocker]

View attachment 105175

Those notes need more zeros.

 

[over9k]

Yeah, about six of them per note.

The QE etc going on are actually staggering figures when you think about it. But the fundamental of the virus being costly remains - the more the virus spreads, the more cost there is. Where that cost is concentrated, how the world reacts etc etc is obviously where the money is to be made. So far we've seen stay-at-home tech and safe havens like precious metals shoot up and vanishingly little else.

Gold (as I'm sure chronus is aware) is knocking on the door of 1800/ounce for a reason.

 

[jbocker]

Yeah, about six of them per note.

The QE etc going on are actually staggering figures when you think about it. But the fundamental of the virus being costly remains - the more the virus spreads, the more cost there is. Where that cost is concentrated, how the world reacts etc etc is obviously where the money is to be made. So far we've seen stay-at-home tech and safe havens like precious metals shoot up and vanishingly little else.

Gold (as I'm sure chronus is aware) is knocking on the door of 1800/ounce for a reason.

..don't forget the company(s) that creates the cure / vaccine makers / coffin makers and toilet roll suppliers.

 

[Smurf1976]

the fundamental of the virus being costly remains - the more the virus spreads, the more cost there is

In the context of the US there's now been a very clear breakout in infection rates with 23 June recording 36,015 new cases, the highest since 1 May and the third highest daily rate since the whole thing started. It's almost double the rate of new infections occurring earlier in June.

So if, and that is a big "if" I do acknowledge, the virus is going to upset the markets then we're probably not far from finding out. That said, we're in an era where people are buying shares in known bankrupt companies so perhaps a lack of profit, or even a complete lack of a functioning business (eg another hard lockdown), won't bother anyone too much and the markets go onwards and upwards.

 

[over9k]

Remember what I was saying in the other thread RE: virus spikes and the end of this month?

Zoom's actually gained slightly today whilst even all the stay-at-home tech is down.