Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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What's perplexing is that even gold ETF's are down - we'd normally anticipate a spike under these circumstances.

Chronos - I know you're a metals trader, care to chime in as to why gold hasn't spiked?
 
over9k said:
What's perplexing is that even gold ETF's are down - we'd normally anticipate a spike under these circumstances.

Chronos - I know you're a metals trader, care to chime in as to why gold hasn't spiked?
Click to expand...
I think it is now.jumped over my strategic $1750 USD ..I thought it would go lower, maybe will with the next mini crash but time to pile on again
 
That's not exactly news though - international travel will be basically non-existent until there's a vaccine.

I actually looked into qantas a fair bit when I started opening some small positions on it a few weeks ago (I've been buying the dips since it was at $3.50 so I'm basically just at breakeven at the moment, until tomorrow's bloodbath obviously) and roughly 75% of its business is domestic travel, which IS going to pick back up. Not to where it was obviously, but it'll be there. Australia's size and the distance between its cities necessitates at least some travel, but aus, aside from victoria, has contained the virus - this ensures and enables a domestic reopening that won't/can't occur in, say, the united states. Qantas was literally the only airline on earth I even thought about buying into and it remains so.

They've been ABLE to raise the capital they have for a reason.

I will be buying the bloodbath tomorrow (frog tells me he is too) and I bet you qantas is way up four weeks from now.
 
over9k said:
That's not exactly news though - international travel will be basically non-existent until there's a vaccine.

I actually looked into qantas a fair bit when I started opening some small positions on it a few weeks ago (I've been buying the dips since it was at $3.50 so I'm basically just at breakeven at the moment, until tomorrow's bloodbath obviously) and roughly 75% of its business is domestic travel, which IS going to pick back up. Not to where it was obviously, but it'll be there. Australia's size and the distance between its cities necessitates at least some travel, but aus, aside from victoria, has contained the virus - this ensures and enables a domestic reopening that won't/can't occur in, say, the united states. Qantas was literally the only airline on earth I even thought about buying into and it remains so.

They've been ABLE to raise the capital they have for a reason.

I will be buying the bloodbath tomorrow and I bet you qantas is way up four weeks from now.
Click to expand...

Are QANTAS going to start paying me again?

Go ask AJ what to do; he gets paid the millions!
 
Dividends? doubt.jpg

Cash is king even more so now.

A simple example of how overblown this is - the media's carrying on about the 747's going to the scrapheap etc now - they were scheduled for retirement (actually required to be scrapped) soon anyway!

I actually used to be a pilot (quit it all in 2014 and also now have a medical reason why I can't be aircrew) so this stuff is pretty much my wheelhouse and I have a couple of friends still in the industry so if anyone has any questions for me or some they'd like me to pass on to them I can certainly do so ;)
 
over9k said:
Dividends? doubt.jpg

Cash is king even more so now.

A simple example of how overblown this is - the media's carrying on about the 747's going to the scrapheap etc now - they were scheduled for retirement (actually required to be scrapped) soon anyway!

I actually used to be a pilot (quit it all in 2014 and also now have a medical reason why I can't be aircrew) so this stuff is pretty much my wheelhouse and I have a couple of friends still in the industry so if anyone has any questions for me or some they'd like me to pass on to them I can certainly do so ;)
Click to expand...

Personally; I liked the RB211 engine over the CF6. A brilliant piece of engineering.
 
over9k said:
What's perplexing is that even gold ETF's are down - we'd normally anticipate a spike under these circumstances.

Chronos - I know you're a metals trader, care to chime in as to why gold hasn't spiked?
Click to expand...

Sorry for the late reply. I missed the post; they were ganging up on me in the energy thread; baiting me. Anyway; Gold will be well above USD$2500 by the end of next year. Fade me if you like.

I am feeling the positive vibe from Wall Street tonight; Dow should close a few hundred up, at least. Fade me on this also, if you like.
 
Fade you? And what's the reason for your $2500 forecast?

You didn't tell me why gold didn't spike in response to a U.S market drop either :p

P.S link to other thread? I have popcorn ready.
 
over9k said:
Fade you? And what's the reason for your $2500 forecast?

You didn't tell me why gold didn't spike in response to a U.S market drop either :p

P.S link to other thread? I have popcorn ready.
Click to expand...

I have enough hooks in my mouth now :roflmao:

I feel like a whale shark pulling the Oasis Of The Seas
 
over9k said:
Fade you? And what's the reason for your $2500 forecast?

You didn't tell me why gold didn't spike in response to a U.S market drop either :p

P.S link to other thread? I have popcorn ready.
Click to expand...

Give me ~15 mins; I will do a chart to predict the session close. I haven't done it in a while.
 
Chronos-Plutus said:
Give me ~15 mins; I will do a chart to predict the session close. I haven't done it in a while.
Click to expand...


Pretty pathetic chart; but all I can find is on the 15 min. DOW broken out of the downtrend, not much of channel though, and will bounce between ~25600 to ~25200 for the rest of the session. I am not the best chartist; haha;)
zzlSBI9B.png
 
I'm in the stay-at-home stocks and I haven't had a single red day in ages, today no exception.

I posted in the other thread that all the overall market gains are coming from stay-at-home tech/megatech. Almost everything else is either negative or at best flat, and with tech making up such a large percentage of the index, we see an overall bump.

I moved almost my entire portfolio to stay-at-home tech weeks ago. It's been nothing but green ever since.
 
over9k said:
I'm in the stay-at-home stocks and I haven't had a single red day in ages, today no exception.

I posted in the other thread that all the overall market gains are coming from stay-at-home tech/megatech. Almost everything else is either negative or at best flat, and with tech making up such a large percentage of the index, we see an overall bump.
Click to expand...

I am not touching anything, really. I have exposure to a couple of small cap miners, which I will buy more of if they drop. Other than that; it is cash and precious metals until this pandemic is over. I get the feeling that we are in the eye of the hurricane. I either buy at rock bottom prices or I buy when the pandemic is finished.
 
I'm in total agreeance with you reference a lot of the market, but there's actually some fundamentals behind what I'm in, which I have no doubt is why they've had such stellar results.

Reference miners - I have a position in DEG that's up over 100% in just a few weeks. Also another in MGV.
 
over9k said:
I'm in total agreeance with you reference a lot of the market, but there's actually some fundamentals behind what I'm in, which I have no doubt is why they've had such stellar results.

Reference miners - I have a position in DEG that's up over 100% in just a few weeks. Also another in MGV.
Click to expand...

I am too late to go into E-tail and Fin-tech now.

I missed the boat with DEG, and I want to see a PFS before I jump in.

I haven't really looked at MGV, the drill results look decent so far, but looks like I missed the boat there also.
 
A friend of mine that trades this stuff reckoned DEG would hit $1 by the end of the year no problem. The way things are going, he's underestimated things.

I don't reckon you're too late on anything I'm currently in - I'm just waiting for the 3rd of july jobs data to come out before I decide which trigger to pull on another couple of positions.
 

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