Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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qldfrog said:
My only problem is the exaggeration you post and you linking it to the market
No we will not see millions: aka more than 2m deaths from the virus in Brazil
So miners are booming because of virus ?
Do you see my point.anyway, if last night in US can not show you my point, nothing i can add.
We all agree on volatility induced
Being out of market is not silly and can be a good option.i am away travelling for a week and considering exiting my daily systems as i can not follow them properly while on the move and enjoy the trip.
Lifestyle choice, not economic one
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AU miners are booming precisely because of virus, yes. Again, this was figured out WEEKS ago in early may really. You're not thinking about brazil's terrible healthcare system and its slums - you couldn't think of a better hotbed of virus infection than a slum.

You'll have to explain RE: U.S market last night.
 
over9k said:
AU miners are booming precisely because of virus, yes. Again, this was figured out WEEKS ago in early may really. You're not thinking about brazil's terrible healthcare system and its slums - you couldn't think of a better hotbed of virus infection than a slum.

You'll have to explain RE: U.S market last night.
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market up and strongly, by now ASX>+3%
not exactly small;
why?you know as well as I that the virus is out of the equation there ->Fed pushing up.
so now in a market forum, we deal with the market and act accordingly, I so suggest you look at the virus this way
Just PM me when we will reach 2m dead in Brazil.
And then if we do go anywhere that figure, what is the actual economic impact for us(Australia), the world or even Brazil in the next 12m?
You could even find some positive..So heartless but the thread is not about the best way to save life but the economy.
It is a wild ride, not for the faint heart and I understand not playing it, but not downplaying it.
Anyway, debate over for me.There is a lot of money to be made for those who want to unhook from the news.Stay safe
 
If the virus is out of the equation, why did usa tank last thursday after the spike in cases?

Brazil's boned. It's not even uncertain any more. Not being funny here, why do you think BHP/RIO/FMG have shot up to the points they have?
 
over9k said:
If the virus is out of the equation, why did usa tank last thursday after the spike in cases?

Brazil's boned. It's not even uncertain any more. Not being funny here, why do you think BHP/RIO/FMG have shot up to the points they have?
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Brazil is only boned if they partake in the stupid lockdowns. With CV death average age at around 80 or very slightly below average life expectancy, I see no reason why they would want to completely tank their economy.

Many of these market reactions are visceral rather than data driven.
 
Oh, and i bought yesterday and making a tidy profit, again, today.
Anyway, to each his own, i believe the populace and super funds are getting creamed lately.
 
wayneL said:
Brazil is only boned if they partake in the stupid lockdowns. With CV death average age at around 80 or very slightly below average life expectancy, I see no reason why they would want to completely tank their economy.

Many of these market reactions are visceral rather than data driven.
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Ignore deaths etc completely: You think people can keep working when they have coronavirus? Or won't change their habits once it's rife in the population?
 
over9k said:
Ignore deaths etc completely: You think people can keep working when they have coronavirus? Or won't change their habits once it's rife in the population?
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People should practice common sense and have a data driven rather than visceral response.

Shutting down and locking up causes other deaths and a lot more of them, should we ignore those?
 
wayneL said:
People should practice common sense and have a data driven rather than visceral response.

Shutting down and locking up causes other deaths and a lot more of them, should we ignore those?
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I'm not arguing goverment policy here, I'm arguing economic effects.

Either people are off work due to lockdowns or they are off work due to sickness (not to mention the medical costs of the sickness), and that's ignoring deaths completely.

It really is that simple, and as I've said in a couple of other threads, the smart money figured this out weeks ago.
 
over9k said:
I'm not arguing goverment policy here, I'm arguing economic effects.

Either people are off work due to lockdowns or they are off work due to sickness (not to mention the medical costs of the sickness), and that's ignoring deaths completely.

It really is that simple, and as I've said in a couple of other threads, the smart money figured this out weeks ago.
Click to expand...
smart money ...how is your super and the retail investors SMSF this year vs the goldman sach of this world...LOL
 
over9k said:
I'm not arguing goverment policy here, I'm arguing economic effects.

Either people are off work due to lockdowns or they are off work due to sickness (not to mention the medical costs of the sickness), and that's ignoring deaths completely.

It really is that simple, and as I've said in a couple of other threads, the smart money figured this out weeks ago.
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Well sure. Invest according to your best information and view.

Irrespective of any situation in Brazil, iron ore, gold and copper are all trending up since the bottom in march.

So is the smart money looking at Brazil or looking at the price of these metals?

Maybe both? Who knows.

All I know is that I'm too dumb to know what smart money is doing and whether these trends are smart money or dumb money... or who the smart money even is.

I follow a few folks who I think are pretty smart... Some interesting perspective there.
 
Nah take a look at FMG, RIO and BHP - aside from one big dip, they were all flat early april-early/mid may and then took off. Iron ore took off late april/early may.

Also worth thinking about what made iron ore take off - precisely because of a realisation of a future collapse in brazilian supply perhaps?
 
over9k said:
Nah take a look at FMG, RIO and BHP - aside from one big dip, they were all flat early april-early/mid may and then took off. Iron ore took off late april/early may.

Also worth thinking about what made iron ore take off - precisely because of a realisation of a future collapse in brazilian supply perhaps?
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Perhaps.

You puts your money down and you takes yer chance, hey.
 
a few days ago, I was mentioning the non realistic vaccine options, with basically placebo effect but useful to unlock the economy, read that: we are there:in less than a week, I could play a famed local poster and be a Canberra minister adviser :)
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...fection-with-coronavirus-20200616-p552yy.html
by the time "vaccine" is released it will be 99pc effective..like salted water...vaccinated but can get sick, mostly benign but for a few exceptions where it will sadly not work...
ultimate results-> a placebo
It will nevertheless be important : allow a pretext to release the economy and win the next election: thanks God we were there and helped develop that "vaccine" will say Paluchet...
 

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