Dump Trump

[Logique]

Americans know it's the Democrats who really shut down the government. Voters want the wall, and elected Trump to build it.

The Democrats could re-open the government in 20 minutes, by voting the allocation. They're just playing power politics at the expense of government employees. The current batch of Democrats would impeach Lincoln

 

[Junior]

Americans know it's the Democrats who really shut down the government. Voters want the wall, and elected Trump to build it.

The Democrats could re-open the government in 20 minutes, by voting the allocation. They're just playing power politics at the expense of government employees. The current batch of Democrats would impeach Lincoln

Longest shutdown in history but of course, not the President’s fault.

A strong leader is accountable and takes responsibility for what happens on his watch. If he was so incredible at doing deals how come the deal still isn’t done?

 

[Darc Knight]

Donald Trump didn't write The Art of the Deal book. His co author wrote the whole thing. Trump didn't write one word:

"Schwartz expressed regrets about his involvement in the book, and both he and the book's publisher, Howard Kaminsky, said that Trump had played no role in the actual writing of the book."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump:_The_Art_of_the_Deal

 

[basilio]

So it seems Robert Mueller is now Donald Trumps Bestie because he said Buzz Feeds story about Trump directing Robert Cohen to lie to Congress was "inaccurate". I wonder when this falls over.


Mueller's disavowal of bombshell Cohen report fuels Trump's war with media
The special counsel’s office broke its silence to dispute a claim by Buzzfeed that Trump had ordered his fixer to lie to Congress

....the special counsel spokesman, Peter Carr, released a rare statement that said: “BuzzFeed’s description of specific statements to the special counsel’s office, and characterization of documents and testimony obtained by this office, regarding Michael Cohen’s congressional testimony are not accurate.”

... Trump and his allies, who have derided Mueller’s investigation as a “witch-hunt”, sought to weaponise the dispute to build their narrative of media bias, noting that BuzzFeed’s account had been discussed on cable news channels all day. The president, who denies collusion with Russia, tweeted: “A very sad day for journalism, but a great day for our Country!”

On Saturday he told reporters at the White House he appreciated “the special counsel coming out with a statement last night”

..Peter Baker, chief White House correspondent of the New York Times, posed an intriguing question: “If this is the first story the special counsel has felt compelled to dispute, does that mean he had no objection to all the others that have come out before now?”
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/19/mueller-cohen-trump-buzzfeed-media

 

[Stock Jock]

The President is always responsible for what his staff, appointees and his children do. President Harry Truman made that clear. Trump is no exception.

 

[Stock Jock]

 

[bigdog]

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/85612278-2481-34a5-8e2f-a92103932fc7/ss_here’s-president-trump’s.html
.
Here’s President Trump’s stock-market scorecard after 2 years in office
Published: Jan 22, 2019 3:11 p.m. ET

Stocks suffer reversal of fortune on policy uncertainty

President Donald Trump has often taken credit for how well stocks do, inadvertently turning equities into a proxy report card for his presidency. But as Trump begins his third year in office, the stock market is sending mixed signals on some of his signature policies, including a protracted trade war with China.

Jan. 20 marked two full years since the real estate mogul and the reality TV star was sworn in as president. In that time, stocks have rallied to records, making him among the most successful Republican presidents when judged by market gains. In fact, the Nasdaq soared 29% since January 2017, marking the tech-centric index’s best rally under a Republican president, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

But a rough 2018 dented Trump’s two-year performance, which for the S&P 500 left him with the 10th best percentage gain of 23 presidents, going back to Herbert Hoover, and the fifth best performance out of 11 Republican presidents, the data show.

Between Jan. 20, 2018 to Jan. 18 this year, the S&P 500 SPX, -1.42% fell 4.97% compared with average gains of 5.43% during a similar time frame while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -1.22% shed 5.24% versus a rise of 5.48% and the Nasdaq COMP, -1.91% dropped 2.44%, sharply underperforming the average advance of 6.87%.

A combination of concerns about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and Trump’s handling of trade negotiations with China has been blamed in part for taking a toll on a market that otherwise benefited from a robust economy, deregulatory efforts and a large corporate tax cut, underscoring the dramatic contrast in its fortunes from one year to the next as the following data show.

Dow
Second year in office (-5.24%):

• 5th worst percentage loss for a Republican president (out of 17)
• 9th worst percentage loss for any president (out of 31)
• The worst second year in office (regardless of term) for a president since Bush from 2002 - 2003

First two years (+25.21%):

• 6th best percentage gain for a Republican president (out of 17)
• 11th best percentage gain for any president (out of 31)
• The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a Republican president since Reagan from 1985 - 1987
• The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a president since Obama from 2013 - 2015

S&P 500
Second year in office (-4.97%):

• 4th worst percentage loss for a Republican president (out of 11)
• 8th worst percentage loss for any president (out of 23)
• The worst second year in office (regardless of term) for a president since Bush from 2002-2003

First two years (+17.98%):

• 5th best percentage gain for a Republican president (out of 11)
• 10th best percentage gain for any president (out of 23)
• The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a Republican president since Bush from 2005 - 2007
• The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a president since Obama from 2013 - 2015

Nasdaq
Second year in office (-2.44%):

• 4th worst percentage loss for a Republican president (out of 7)
• 5th worst percentage loss for any president (out of 12)
• The worst second year in office (regardless of term) for a president since Bush from 2002-2003

First two years (+29.19%):

• 2nd best percentage gain for a Republican president (out of 7)
• 5th best percentage gain for any president (out of 12)
• The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a Republican president since Reagan from 1985 - 1987
• The best first two years in office (of a first term) for a Republican president on record
• The best first two years in office (regardless of term) for a president since Obama from 2013 - 2015

Stocks have partially recovered from the gut-wrenching selloff in late 2018 to punch higher in January. But it will be difficult for equities to reclaim the glory days of Trump’s first year with the global economy starting to show signs of fatigue while corporate earnings growth have slowed. Fears of a prolonged trade tensions with key trading partner China as well as the fallout from the partial government shutdown might also cap the market’s upside for now.

784

 

[Darc Knight]

The warnings are getting starker: The US government shutdown is becoming catastrophic for the economy

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...democrats-standoff-damaging-us-economy-2019-1

 

[basilio]

"It's time to Impeach Trump"

Why should the Democrats move to impeach Donald Trump - even if it is unsuccessful. Check out this shrt history lesson the the impeachment of President Andrew Johnson in 1868

It’s Time to Impeach Trump
Jan 17, 2019 | 30 videos
Video by The Atlantic
Impeachment is a powerful tool. The time to wield it is now, argues the Atlantic senior editor Yoni Appelbaum. In the latest Atlantic Argument, Appelbaum invokes Andrew Johnson’s impeachment in 1868 to make the case for democratically removing President Donald Trump from office. Appelbaum underscores that this measure is not meant to resolve a policy dispute; rather, it is an attempt to rectify the problem of Trump’s inability to discharge the basic duties of his office.

“The president is unfit for the office he holds,” Appelbaum says in the video. “Congress needs to act now and open an impeachment inquiry.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2019/03/impeachment-trump/580468/

 

[bigdog]

https://www.usnews.com/news/busines.../strain-on-nations-air-travel-system-emerging

Government Shutdown Strains Emerge in US Air Travel System
Strains of government shutdown begin to emerge in nation's air travel system.
Jan. 24, 2019, at 3:56 p.m.

By DAVID KOENIG, Associated Press

The strain of a 34-day partial government shutdown is weighing on the nation's air-travel system, both the federal workers who make it go and the airlines that depend on them.

Air traffic controllers and airport security agents continue to work without pay — they will miss a second biweekly paycheck on Friday — but high absentee rates raise the threat of long airport lines, or worse.

Unions that represent air traffic controllers, flight attendants and pilots are growing concerned about safety with the shutdown well into its fifth week. Airline executives say they are worried that long airport lines could scare off passengers. The economic damage, while small, is starting to show up in their financial reports.

Federal workers say going without pay is grinding them down, and they're not sure how much longer they can take it.

"The stress is getting to everyone," said Al Zamborsky, a radar specialist at Reagan National Airport outside Washington.

Zamborsky said co-workers are preoccupied with the shutdown and their personal finances. Safety isn't compromised, he said, but efficiency has suffered.

The presidents of unions representing air traffic controllers, pilots and flight attendants outlined their security concerns in a prepared statement.

"We have a growing concern for the safety and security of our members, our airlines, and the traveling public due to the government shutdown," they said. "In our risk-averse industry, we cannot even calculate the level of risk currently at play, nor predict the point at which the entire system will break."

The Transportation Safety Administration said 7.5 percent of its airport security officers scheduled to work on Wednesday did not show up. That is down from Sunday's 10 percent absent rate but more than double the 3 percent rate of the comparable Wednesday in 2018.

TSA has resorted to sending backup officers to beef up staffing at some airports and at times closing a couple of checkpoints at major airports. TSA said that only 3.7 percent of travelers screened Wednesday — or about 65,000 people — waited 15 minutes or longer.

Air traffic controllers are hired by the Federal Aviation Administration.

"We have seen no unusual increased absenteeism and there are no operational disruptions due to staffing," said FAA spokesman Greg Martin said. He declined to provide figures.

The impact to airlines' business has been small so far. Southwest Airlines said Thursday that the shutdown has cost it $10 million to $15 million in lost revenue. The airline had $5.7 billion revenue in the fourth quarter. Delta Air Lines, which had $10.7 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, expects to lose $25 million in sales this month.

However, there are other effects. The shutdown is holding up Southwest's plans to begin flights from California to Hawaii — the FAA regulators who must approve the long, over-water flights are not working during the shutdown. Delta's service using new planes is also likely to be pushed back because FAA officials are off the job.

Airlines are walking a fine line: They fear more financial harm if the shutdown continues, but they do not want to alarm passengers.

Southwest CEO Gary Kelly called the shutdown "maddening."

"This shutdown could harm the economy and it could harm air travel," Kelly said. "This is crazy, it just absolutely needs to end." He said the airline would do its best "to work through this slop and contain the damage."

Kelly and Doug Parker, the CEO of American Airlines, said the shutdown has not affected safety. However, if the shutdown leads to fewer TSA agents or air traffic controllers on the job, Parker said, "you get long lines at TSA but still the same level of screening, you get larger separation (in the air) of aircraft, so you have delayed airspace — things that are really concerning to us. That is what we fear may happen."

Parker urged government officials to resolve the shutdown so that customers don't have to fear "delays at the airport because air traffic controllers that can't afford to show up to work."

The toll is greatest, of course, on the federal workers who are going without paychecks.

"I have an 8-year-old son who asked me, 'Hey Dad, what are we going to do to pay our mortgage? Are we going to lose our house?'" said Mike Christine, an air traffic controller in Leesburg, Virginia. "That is not something an 8-year-old should be saying."

Christine's wife is a federal worker who is also about to miss her second paycheck.

 

[basilio]

Strains of working without pay for a month are reaching breaking point.

In a letter to President Trump today, Nathan Catura, who heads the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association, expressed just how dire the shutdown has been for workers who have now gone without pay for more than a month.

Describing the “perilous position” federal workers are facing, he writes that many are depending on GoFundMe pages and soup kitchens to get by. Citing that 27,000 federal agents and officers across 65 federal agencies are represented by his association and that all have had to work with no pay as their jobs are essential to national security, he called the shutdown reprehensible and asked the President to end it.

"Many of our members conduct complex investigations including tracking terrorists, identifying foreign actors, and protecting elected officials, including you and your family. As the shutdown continues they are being put in both a fiscally and personally compromising position that is antithetical to the way our nation should be treating those that protect us.


Twenty-first century law enforcement requires research, analysis and technology. These critical investigative support elements are not working during the shutdown, this compares to half of a team taking a field for a game. The targets of our investigations now have an advantage of being better informed and better resourced than our members. This is an extremely dangerous situation that threatens the lives of our members and all Americans.”

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news...ws-today-live-government-shutdown-senate-vote

 

[basilio]

Really not a great idea to keep detailed records of a conspiracy ..

Trump’s Inner Circle Keeps Violating the Stringer Bell Rule
Roger Stone is the latest of the president’s associates to ignore the most important rule in a conspiracy: Don’t take notes.

12:35 PM ET

Adam Serwer
Staff writer at The Atlantic

Brendan McDermid / Reuters
If Donald Trump’s advisers had only watched The Wire, many of the president’s aides and associates might have saved themselves a great deal of legal trouble.

A scene from the HBO crime drama shows a character named Stringer Bell trying to broker peace between rival drug dealers, and trying to get them to abide by Robert’s Rules of Order. When the meeting adjourns, Bell walks up to a subordinate, who is busy scribbling on a legal pad.

“Motherxxxxxxr, what is that?” Bell asks.

“The Robert Rules say we gotta have minutes for a meeting. These the minutes,” he replies.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...ciates-keep-taking-notes-conspiracies/581299/

Astonished, Bell snatches the paper out of his hand. “Nigga, is you takin’ notes on a criminal xuckin’ conspiracy? What the xuck is you thinking, man?”

 

[basilio]

And this argument says that the charges against Roger Stone make impeachment urgent.
Roger Stone’s Arrest Is the Signal for Congress to Act
Robert Mueller is looking for crimes. It’s up to legislators to safeguard the country.

9:08 AM ET

David Frum
Staff writer at The Atlantic

Jose Luis Magana / AP

The indictment of Roger Stone moves the Trump-Russia story forward—but leaves the country stuck in exactly the same place.

Stone has been indicted for obstruction, making false statements, and witness tampering, but here’s what he was lying and witness-tampering about: his repeated communications with WikiLeaks to further and enable Russia’s interference in the 2016 campaign. On the basis of the indictment, it appears that the Trump campaign had advance knowledge that the October WikiLeaks dump was coming—and what its contents might approximately include. Via Stone, the Trump campaign coordinated messaging with WikiLeaks. Stone’s link to WikiLeaks told him, “Would not hurt to start suggesting HRC old, memory bad, has stroke, neither he nor she well. I expect that much of next dump focus …”

But here’s how we’re stuck. We are now entering the third year of a presidency tainted from its start by clandestine assistance from Russia. That corrupt connection overhangs every strategic decision: the president’s repeated threats to quit NATO; his refusal to implement congressionally voted sanctions to punish Russia for nerve-agent poisonings in the U.K. Only 31 percent of Americans feel confident that Russian President Vladimir Putin is not blackmailing their own president, according to the latest Marist poll.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/a...ger-stone-indictment-demands-congress/581272/

 

[bellenuit]

“Would not hurt to start suggesting HRC old, memory bad, has stroke, neither he nor she well. I expect that much of next dump focus …”

And right on cue, Fox News, particularly Hannity but many other Fox commentators, started pushing that suggestion. Interviewing doctors who claimed that from looking at her on TV they could see she had epilepsy. Claiming her GP's formal diagnosis that she had a bout of pneumonia, which was the cause of her unsteadiness, was a fabrication.

 

[bigdog]

The breakthrough came as LaGuardia Airport in New York and Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey both experienced at least 90-minute delays in takeoffs Friday because of the shutdown. And the world's busiest airport — Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport — was experiencing long security wait times, a warning sign the week before it expects 150,000 out-of-town visitors for the Super Bowl.

https://www.usnews.com/news/busines...ends-shutdown-signs-bill-to-reopen-government

Trump Ends Shutdown, Signs Bill to Reopen Government
Trump agrees to reopen government for 3 weeks without money for his border wall.
Jan. 26, 2019, at 1:16 a.m.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Submitting to mounting pressure, President Donald Trump has signed a bill to reopen the government for three weeks, backing down from his demand that Congress give him money for his border wall before federal agencies go back to work.

Standing alone in the Rose Garden Friday, Trump said he would sign legislation funding shuttered agencies until Feb. 15 and try again to persuade lawmakers to finance his long-sought wall. The deal he reached with congressional leaders contains no new money for the wall but ends the longest shutdown in U.S. history.

First the Senate, then the House swiftly and unanimously approved the deal. Late Friday, Trump signed it into law. The administration asked federal department heads to reopen offices in a "prompt and orderly manner" and said furloughed employees can return to work.

Trump's retreat came in the 35th day of the partial shutdown as intensifying delays at the nation's airports and another missed payday for hundreds of thousands of federal workers brought new urgency to efforts to resolve the standoff.

"This was in no way a concession," Trump said in a tweet late Friday, fending off critics who wanted him to keep fighting. "It was taking care of millions of people who were getting badly hurt by the Shutdown with the understanding that in 21 days, if no deal is done, it's off to the races!"

The shutdown ended as Democratic leaders had insisted it must — reopen the government first, then talk border security.

"The president thought he could crack Democrats, and he didn't, and I hope it's a lesson for him," said the Senate Democratic leader, Chuck Schumer. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said of her members: "Our unity is our power. And that is what maybe the president underestimated."

Trump still made the case for a border wall and maintained he might again shut down the government over it. Yet, as negotiations restart, Trump enters them from a weakened position. A strong majority of Americans blamed him for the standoff and rejected his arguments for a border wall, recent polls show.

"If we don't get a fair deal from Congress, the government will either shut down on Feb. 15, again, or I will use the powers afforded to me under the laws and Constitution of the United States to address this emergency," Trump said.

The president has said he could declare a national emergency to fund the border wall unilaterally if Congress doesn't provide the money. Such a move would almost certainly face legal hurdles.

As part of the deal with congressional leaders, a bipartisan committee of House and Senate lawmakers was being formed to consider border spending as part of the legislative process in the weeks ahead.

"They are willing to put partisanship aside, I think, and put the security of the American people first," Trump said. He asserted that a "barrier or walls will be an important part of the solution."

The deal includes back pay for some 800,000 federal workers who have gone without paychecks. The Trump administration promises to pay them as soon as possible.

Also expected is a new date for the president to deliver his State of the Union address, postponed during the shutdown. But it will not be Jan. 29 as once planned, according to a person familiar with the planning but unauthorized to discuss it.

As border talks resume, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he hopes there will be "good-faith negotiations over the next three weeks to try to resolve our differences."

Schumer said that while Democrats oppose the wall money, they agree on other ways to secure the border "and that bodes well for coming to an eventual agreement."

In striking the accord, Trump risks backlash from conservatives who pushed him to keep fighting for the wall. Some lashed out Friday for his having yielded, for now, on his signature campaign promise.

Conservative commentator Ann Coulter suggested on Twitter that she views Trump as "the biggest wimp" to serve as president.

Money for the wall is not at all guaranteed, as Democrats have held united against building a structure as Trump once envisioned, preferring other types of border technology. Asked about Trump's wall, Pelosi, who has said repeatedly she won't approve money for it, said: "Have I not been clear? No, I have been very clear."

Within the White House, there was broad recognition among Trump's aides that the shutdown pressure was growing, and they couldn't keep the standoff going indefinitely. The president's approval numbers had suffered during the impasse. Overnight and Friday, several Republicans were calling on him openly, and in private, to reopen the government.

The breakthrough came as LaGuardia Airport in New York and Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey both experienced at least 90-minute delays in takeoffs Friday because of the shutdown. And the world's busiest airport — Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport — was experiencing long security wait times, a warning sign the week before it expects 150,000 out-of-town visitors for the Super Bowl.

The standoff became so severe that, as the Senate opened with prayer, Chaplain Barry Black called on high powers in the "hour of national turmoil" to help senators do "what is right."

Senators were talking with increased urgency after Thursday's defeat of competing proposals from Trump and the Democrats. Bipartisan talks provided a glimmer of hope Friday that some agreement could be reached. But several senators said they didn't know what to expect as they arrived to watch the president's televised address from their lunchroom off the Senate floor.

The Senate first rejected a Republican plan Thursday reopening the government through September and giving Trump the $5.7 billion he's demanded for building segments of that wall, a project that he'd long promised Mexico would finance. The 50-47 vote for the measure fell 10 shy of the 60 votes needed to succeed.

Minutes later, senators voted 52-44 for a Democratic alternative that sought to open padlocked agencies through Feb. 8 with no wall money. That was eight votes short. But it earned more support than Trump's plan, even though Republicans control the chamber 53-47. It was aimed at giving bargainers time to seek an accord while getting paychecks to government workers who are either working without pay or being forced to stay home.

Contributing to the pressure on lawmakers to find a solution was the harsh reality confronting many of the federal workers, who on Friday faced a second two-week payday with no paychecks.

Throughout, the two sides issued mutually exclusive demands that have blocked negotiations from even starting: Trump had refused to reopen government until Congress gave him the wall money, and congressional Democrats had rejected bargaining until he reopened government.

 

[basilio]

Watched Fox news on their take of the Roger Stone arrest and indictments.

They were "horrified" at the huge early morning arrest squad
They were certain this was still a witch hunt and that all the charges were fabricated.
That is the the US..

 

[basilio]

Nice little encapsulation of the last 24 hours of the Trump administration..
Rest aren't bad either

Seth Meyers: 'It’s not often that a single event sums up an entire presidency'
Late-night hosts celebrated the shutdown of the government shutdown and examined Trump associate Roger Stone’s arrest

Adrian Horton

Wed 30 Jan 2019 05.19 AEDT Last modified on Wed 30 Jan 2019 06.14 AEDT



Seth Meyers: ‘The only way that could’ve been more humiliating for Trump is if Robert Mueller celebrated by eating a Happy Meal at McDonald’s on a date with Stormy Daniels.’ Photograph: YouTube
Late-night hosts interpreted the end of the government shutdown and the arrest of Roger Stone.

Seth Meyers: ‘Eating a Happy Meal on a date with Stormy Daniels’
On Monday’s Late Night, Seth Meyers addressed what he saw as a particularly symbolic weekend of news for the White House. Between Trump’s capitulation on the government shutdown and the arrest of his close associate Roger Stone, Meyers said, “it’s not often that a single event sums up an entire presidency but on Friday, we got one that came pretty close.

“Remember, Trump brags that he only hires the best people, calls the Russian investigation a hoax, calls CNN fake news, and his government shutdown left FBI agents without pay,” Meyers explained. “So it was especially ironic when one of Trump’s closest associates was arrested by unpaid FBI agents working for the special counsel on the Russia investigation, and the whole thing was caught on tape by CNN.

“The only way that could’ve been more humiliating for Trump,” Meyers said, “is if Robert Mueller celebrated by eating a Happy Meal at McDonald’s on a date with Stormy Daniels.”

The indictment against Stone may seem damning – he allegedly told a radio host that he should “pull a Frank Pentangeli”, in reference to a Godfather character who lied to a congressional committee – but Stone left his house in high spirits, imitating his hero Richard Nixon’s victory pose.

“Now you might be thinking to yourself: didn’t Nixon resign in disgrace? Maybe that’s not the best pose to show your innocence? But Stone doesn’t remember that, because he spent most of the 70s traveling around in a glass elevator that he stole from Willy Wonka,” Meyers joked about Stone and his off-kilter, retro-formal outfits.

“This guy was basically begging to be arrested,” Meyers said. “I mean, he imitates Richard Nixon, he quotes from The Godfather, and he dresses like Hannibal Lecter.”
https://www.theguardian.com/culture...stephen-colbert-trevor-noah-roger-stone-trump

 

[bigdog]

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2019/01/29/harley-davidson-profit/38973381/

Harley-Davidson profit erased by Trump tariffs
Gabrielle Coppola, Bloomberg News Published 4:02 p.m. ET Jan. 29, 2019

Harley-Davidson Inc. barely broke even in the last quarter of a year in which the struggling American icon got caught up in President Donald Trump’s trade wars. The motorcycle maker’s shares plunged the most in a year.

Earnings per share on a GAAP basis were zero in the fourth quarter, the Milwaukee-based manufacturer said in a statement Tuesday. Excluding restructuring and tariff costs, profit was 17 cents a share, missing analysts’ average estimate for 29 cents.

Trump attacked Harley last year after it announced plans to shift some U.S. production overseas to sidestep levies imposed by the European Union. But the motorcycle maker has more than tariffs and angry tweets to blame for its performance. U.S. retail sales tumbled 10 percent in the three months ended in December, the eighth consecutive quarterly drop. Chief Executive Officer Matt Levatich is having trouble attracting younger riders and plans to offer cheaper bikes and sell more clothing and gear — including on Amazon — to reach new customers.

“2019 we expect to be another difficult year until major initiatives like More Roads start kicking in,” Levatich said in an interview, referring to a turnaround plan unveiled last year. “Everything is angled at that core issue of building riders in the U.S. and leveraging growth opportunities we have in the near term and internationally.”

Harley shares fell as much as 9.5 percent — the biggest intraday drop since Jan. 30 — and were down 7.6 percent to $33.83 as of 9:48 a.m. in New York. The stock plunged 33 percent last year.

Retail demand dropped in Europe and Asia, sending worldwide sales down 6.7 percent last quarter. Levatich’s plans call for half of sales to come from outside the U.S. by 2027, up from about 42 percent last year.

Harley has been investing to expand a new plant in Thailand to boost exports and produce the majority of motorcycles sold in the EU and China by the end of this year, Levatich said in the interview. The company hadn’t previously specified where U.S. production would be shifted to avoid tariffs the EU implemented in retaliation for higher levies on steel and aluminum.

Trump said in August that he’d back a boycott of the company’s bikes for moving production out of America. Tariff costs of $100 million to $120 million this year will be eliminated in 2020, once the Thailand plant expansion is completed, executives said on an earnings call.

Levatich is introducing as many as five electric models, including lightweight, urban bikes to target growth in Europe and India. Analysts think demand for Harley’s first electric model, called LiveWire, will be limited because of its $29,799 price tag.

For 2019, Harley plans to ship between 217,000 and 220,000 motorcycles. The midpoint of that forecast would be the lowest shipments for the company since 2010.

 

[bigdog]

The "Tariff Man"

https://www.theage.com.au/business/...-all-the-ones-he-started-20190307-p512di.html

Trump says trade wars are 'easy to win', but he's losing all the ones he started

By Stephen Bartholomeusz
March 7, 2019 — 12.15pm

If, as Donald Trump has said, trade wars are good and easy to win, why is the US losing the wars it initiated and losing so bigly?

The destructive and pointless absurdity of the Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies showed up, quite predictably (to those outside the Trump administration) in a blow-out in the US trade deficit in 2018.

The deficit in goods of $US891.3 billion ($1.27 trillion) was the largest in US history. If the $US270 billion surplus in services (the element of trade that Trump usually ignores) were included it was, at $US621 billion, still the worst in a decade.

The "Tariff Man", who has described tariffs as "the greatest negotiating tool in the history of our country" and has said that "trade wars are good, and easy to win", created a benchmark for the success, or failure, of his trade policies. At this point, he’s failing.

To rub that point in, despite the tariffs on $US250 billion of China’s exports to the US, the deficit on the trade in goods with China was a record $US419 billion.

Despite the "victory" in the coercive negotiations with Canada and Mexico that led to the re-writing of what used to be the North American Free Trade agreement, there was a $US19.8 billion deficit with Canada and a $US81.5 billion deficit with Mexico – the biggest deficits in a decade.

The outcomes are undermining the administration’s stance, and Trump’s own rhetoric, that trade deficits reflect a zero sum game where economies with surpluses are winners and those with deficits losers; that America’s persistent deficits were the result of foreigners unfairly taking advantage of the US.

The blow-out in the deficit was both predictable and understandable and underscores how limited the "Make America Great Again" and "America First" approach to trade is within complex global trading and financial systems.

There is some irony in the fact that Trump’s own policies – his $US1.5 trillion of tax cuts and the big increase in US budget deficits and borrowing requirements – have contributed to the increased deficit.

The US economy has been running hot at a time when, partly due to the trade conflicts, other major economies have been cooling. China, the world’s second-largest economy, has been slowing. The European Union is barely registering any growth.

The relative strength of the US economy means that it consumes more and imports more goods even as consumers and companies in China and Europe and the economies exposed to them consume less and import less.

The growth in the US and the higher interest rates that have accompanied it also mean the US dollar has strengthened against its major trading partners, making imports cheaper and exports dearer.

That has been exacerbated by the tariffs, which have not only been blunted by the currency relativities but have been largely absorbed by US companies or passed on to US consumers in the form of higher prices.

There are also some broader macro-economic influences at play, not the least of which is a weak savings rate in the US as well as the role the US dollar plays as the world’s reserve currency.

The US has to print dollars to fund its deficits and, with the US dollar the global currency for foreign exchange transactions and the dominant currency for global central bank reserves, the rest of the world needs to exchange goods and services for US dollars.

While that reserve currency status does handicap the competitiveness of US exports, it lowers borrowing costs for US borrowers and enables Americans to enjoy a higher standard of living than they would if there were no trade deficits.

Trump has said he happens to be a tariff person because he’s "a smart person", but seeing trade in the narrow and binary fashion of the administration isn’t smart and hasn’t been regarded as smart since the 1930s.

While there have been particular winners and losers within individual economies from free trade and globalisation, overall, both developing and developed economies have benefited from free trade.

While Trump appears to be on the verge of a deal with China that will see it make some trade concessions and agree to buy significantly more US agricultural product and energy, which might be regarded as a win, increased Chinese purchases of US products will essentially cause a redirection of trade – and the trade deficits – unless the US is able to greatly expand capacity and improve its export competitiveness. A reduced deficit with China would be offset by increased deficits elsewhere.

Trump appears to be on the verge of doubling down on his tariff strategy, with reports that the US Commerce Department has, conveniently, determined that imports of European autos represent a threat to US national security, the same pretext the administration used to slap tariffs on Canada’s aluminium exports.

Trump wants to use the threat of auto tariffs as leverage to force the EU to open up its agricultural product markets, which is almost inconceivable. Auto tariffs would provoke retaliatory actions by the EU, with unpleasant consequences for both sides and the global economy.

Given the deteriorating trends in the US trade equations, for such smart people, the administration seems to be demonstrating it is peopled with slow learners.

 

[Stock Jock]